Google Ads


Site Stats

MN-Gov: Can You Feel the Emmer-mentum?

by: jeffmd

Fri Aug 06, 2010 at 1:53 PM EDT


SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV (8/2-4, likely voters, 6/14-6/16 in parens; 5/3-5 in brackets):

Mark Dayton (DFL): 46 (38) [34]
Tom Emmer (R): 32 (35) [42]
Tom Horner (I): 9 (12) [9]
Undecided: 13 (15) [15]

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 39 (33) [33]
Tom Emmer (R): 33 (35) [41]
Tom Horner (I): 9 (12) [9]
Undecided: 13 (21) [17]

Matt Entenza (DFL): 38 (33) [31]
Tom Emmer (R): 33 (37) [42]
Tom Horner (I): 12 (12) [10]
Undecided: 17 (18) [16]
(MoE: ±2.7%)

The wheels on the bus go round-and-round, except, of course, if your bus is Tom Emmer's gubernatorial candidacy. Emmer's hit a few speedbumps recently, having been on the receiving end of ads from DFL candidate Matt Entenza attacking Emmer's Palinism and outside groups hitting Emmer on drunk driving laws.

SurveyUSA follows up with a second poll confirming the results of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune's poll earlier this week, with leads for each of the DFL hopefuls. Emmer's decline's been quite stunning, having consistently lost points in each progressive SurveyUSA poll. We've had "Joementum" and felt the "Mumpower", and now, there's "Emmermentum." Mark Dayton fares the best, now boasting a 14-point lead, up from an 8-point deficit three months ago - a remarkable 22% swing in that time. Margaret Anderson Kelliher is now up 6, a 14-point swing from being down 8; Entenza's now 5 up, a 16-point swing from being 11 down.

SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV (8/2-4, likely voters, 6/14-6/16 in parens):

Mark Dayton (DFL): 43 (39)
Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 27 (26)
Matt Entenza (DFL): 22 (22)
Undecided: 7 (11)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

The corresponding part of the poll examining the DFL primary also mirrors the Star Tribune's poll. There's been slight movement since SurveyUSA last examined the race in June, with Mark Dayton still in the driver's seat with a 16-point lead over MAK and Entenza in third. Dayton looks well on his way along the road to redemption since retiring from the Senate four years ago; with these results and Emmer's rising unfavorables, there's good reason for optimism that we'll take back the Governor's Mansion in St. Paul.
jeffmd :: MN-Gov: Can You Feel the Emmer-mentum?
Tags: , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

MN-Gov: Can You Feel the Emmer-mentum? | 63 comments
This will be Dayton's
what, second comeback?
Trivia
The last time Minnesota had a Democratic Governor and two Democratic Senators was in 1978. Also assuming all of the other statewide officers win re-election I believe this will be the first time ever that all statewide office holders are Democrat. Someone correct me if I am wrong.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
We can do better
Better than Emmer-mentum at least. I'd go with something along the lines of Emmergy, particularly as in the title: Can you feel the Emmergy?
If Bachmann wins and a Dem gov wins,
Is it possible to destroy her district, make Paulsen stronger, and add a Dem-leaning district in the Twin Cities?

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
Possible bur difficult
If she lived in anywhere but the far east corner of her district, we could do even better, by ejecting St. Cloud into the 7th, and dumping Sherburne and Wright into the already Bible-belty northwest corner of the 2nd (along with Scott and Carver).  You've still got a chunk of Washington left, though, and that's where Bachmann lives.  If you're creative, you might be able to send a tendril up to her house from the 2nd, though.  In exchange, it would dump Rice, LeSueur, and Goodhue into the 1st.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Maplewood
Michelle Bachmann lives in Maplewood, which is directly adjacent to Betty McCollum's 4th district. The 4th has lost a lot of population, and will need to expand outwards. Putting Half of Washington County into it would shore up the population. Bachmann would not stand a chance in such a district.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Yep
That would do it.  What would the Anoka portion do to Paulsen?  Or do we give it piecemeal to the 4th and 5th?

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Anoka
Anoka County (actually my parents' county, so I used to vote there) is kind of the population sink for this deal. Anoka County has 3 distinct parts, the southern tip (Columbia Heights, Fridley, Hilltop, and Spring Lake Park) is very blue, and actually substantially more liberal that parss of Hennepin county. Blaine is where most of the people life is pretty moderate but quirky, and is hope to a lot of the Independence vote, and then the northern part is tea-baggy exurbs.

In some of the scenarios the county is split, with the 2nd (now crescent-shaped) getting the northern part, and the southern part getting either into the 4th or 5th. In the 7 district scenarios with Bachmann winning, the entirety of Anoka county is in the 5th, as to give the left-leaning suburbs in Hennepin county to Paulsen. In the 7 district scenario with a flange to St Cloud to get Clark, the 4th actually takes all of Anoka County.  

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Where from in Anoka county?
Im from St. Michael-Albertville.  We love us some Bachmann.
[ Parent ]
My parents
currently live in Columbia Heights. Wright County is pretty bad, you have my sympathies.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
She lives in Woodbury actually
Maplewood is in the 4th, but Woodbury borders Maplewood so Bachmann still borders the 4th.  What makes it so perfect is that putting Woodbury into the 4th in an 8 seat map to make the 4th it equal in population is really the most sensible option.  It's the only suburb in the east metro not in the 4th as is and the district needs to gain population.  Especially since if left as is, the 6th has exploded in population in the NW part of the district so the 6th would become much more NW centric and would probably lose more of it's SE portions.  What is city is in the SE tip of the district, Woodbury.

Although Bachmann would probably just run wherever her tea-bagging base is put.  She can win an endorsement/primary with them at her back.

[ Parent ]
Bachmann v. Kline
Putting her in a primary against Kline (who I have given pretty much every teabagging place in the state) would be quite the fight. I really want to see those 2 try and run to the right of each other. Sadly such a district would not be competitive, and either way a crazy, very conservative Republican would represent it for the foreseeable future

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Not the easiest way to do it.
Honestly, shoring up Paulsen is the second worst thing that could be done in redistricting Minnesota (Second only to combining Minneapolis and St. Paul in one district). Minnesota may or may not lose its 8th congressional district this round. Either way, Paulsen should not get shored up. As of now I see 4 possibilities:

Minnesota keep's the 8th, and both Bachmann and Paulsen get reelected.
Minnesota keep's the 8th and one of them (probably Bachmann) loses.
Minnesota loses the 8th, and Bachman and Paulsen are reelected.
Minnesota loses the 8th and one of them lose.

In the first scenario, you leave the 1st 7th and 8th pretty much unchanged, while turning the 5th into a Minneapolis and exurb district (Rogers, Minnetonka, Maple Grove, Excelsior, etc), moving the left-leaning suburbs in the current 5th to the first, as far as I can guess, that would make the 3rd a D+5 or so, while not really hurting the solid-blue 5th. Then you make a crescent-moon shaped district around the western and southern exurbs, and give it to Kline. Expand the 4th to the Wisconsin border and make a new (6th) district out of Washington and Dakota Counties. This would be a D+1 or D+2 district, which is winnable for a Republican, but not Bachmann.

In the second, you may have to run an arm from Hennepin county to St. Cloud which would set up a incumbent (Paulsen) vs. incumbent (Clark) match up in a district that went for Obama by a couple percent. I like this scenario worst, because of anti-gerrymandering laws in Minnesota, this district may be thrown out of court, and there isn't a good way to give Clark (A St. Cloud resident) even a DLF leaning district. Everything around St. Cloud is ruby-red.

The 3rd and 4th make the districts a lot bigger, so it would enable putting all the shitty exurbs in 1 district for Kline, and making 3 solid Democratic city and suburb districts along with the 1st 7th and 8th which would expant towards the 7-county metro area, but still would be overwhelmingly rural-centric.

I know everyone here hates Peterson, but to be honest, there aren't many other Democrats that could win in the 7th, and the ones that could would probably be every bit as conservative, if not more so than him. He is a thorn in our side, but it is better than the Republican that would win out there, I can assure you of that.

I did these maps in Dave's redistricting application, but I don't know how to embed them into this, as I am not fluent in HTML. If someone would be so kind as to let me know how, I will post my maps so you can see what I am talking about.  

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
First off, you stole my gig
I give all the redistricting info here on MN.  (In all honesty, you just saved me a lot of typing.  Thanks.)  Ive also done a map with the arm to St. Cloud that just completely followed Hwy 10 and Obama won this district by 6%.  Id probably make it a little more GOP and beef it up so it looks nicer in reality as this one dips into Ramsey County even.  But this isnt reality, its SSP.

Second, people just take screenshots to get their maps up.  Take a screenshot, crop it, join Photobucket (or wherever) and then post.  (And for the love of good DO NOT take a digital camera and take a shot of your screen, it's 2010, just hit the button on your computer.)

[ Parent ]
Photos
Sorry for stealing your thunder. I was an intern for a state representative last year, and the dude is obsessed with this redistricting. Sadly I took a real job and couldn't devote that much time to being a staffer anymore, but I got a first-hand look at how this process is going. Lots and lots of jockeying, I can assure you of that.

I know it's bad form, but I don't know hyperlink syntax, so I am just going to post a link to the 4 maps I was alluding to earlier:
http://s877.photobucket.com/al...

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
what state rep?
I need to look him up because oh how Id love being at the capitol doing this thing next session.

And I was just kidding about stealing my thunder, so no sorry needed.  You clearly haven't stopped me from posting up and down this thread.  :)

[ Parent ]
Representative
Tom Anzelc. He isn't really a prominent chair or anything, but he works really closely with Tony Sertich, so I got to know him pretty well too. Sertich with be a congressman in 2013, I can almost assure you of that.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Oberstar going to retire then?
Sertich isnt getting elected without Oberstar retiring, they're even from the same town!
[ Parent ]
I am 90%
certain that this is his last reelection. The Sertich camp is definitely the heir apparent to Oberstar. The only thing that MAY prevent that is if Sertich really likes being Speaker of the House (He is assured of the gavel unless Republicans pull a monkey out of their ass and win the House)

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
You think Oberstar will retire in 2012?
I could see it if Dems lose the House but I think he enjoys being Chairman of the Transportation committee to much to give it up otherwise.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Old
The man is old, and is working on 40 years in the House. If he runs for reelection in 2012 instead of retire, he will be in his 80s at the end of th term. I just don't see it. And work is going on behind the scenes for a smooth succession, not that there is any Republican bench whatsoever up there.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Combining Minneapolis and St Paul...
... in one district would not be as bad as some think. It would free up the inner ring suburbs which are nearly as Democratic as the major cities and make the current 2nd, 3rd and 6th districts all more Democratic. Playing around on Dave's App it is not to hard to draw a 5-2 or 6-2 map even after combining Minneapolis and St Paul.

FWIW I don't see  hyper partisan Democratic redistricting even if the the Dems control the entire process. Minnesota just does not do wild gerrymandered districts like some other states, you will see districts following communities of interest and current county/city boundaries as much as possible.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Redistricting
Yea, Minnesota is pretty common-sense, which it comes to redistricting and pretty much everything else. Combining those 2 just makes it such a headache to try and get a 6-1 or even a 6-1-1 map without looking absurd. With St. Paul anchoring the 4th and Minneapolis anchoring the 5th, you can run those districts out into the exurbs to the north, which allows the inner-ring suburbs to the east south and west to form their own left-leaning districts, Then you make a C-shaped district in the terrible parts (Carver, Wright, etc) and give it an R+8 to R+10 tilt. No reason to give Republicans 2 safe districts. 1 Safe one, and a tossup is all we need to give them

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
I expect they both...
... will continue to anchor their own districts, just saying that it would not be the end of the world if they were combined (would make some sense from a non partisan point of view).

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
I think the redistricting of Minnesota can find the 0 for the republicans

If I'm not wrong Minnesota is D+3 or D+4, that mean the state can have a redistricting with a 55% Obama as worse district for the democrats.
[ Parent ]
Ive tried doing a GOP gerrymander of MN many times
where I combined Minneapolis/St Paul.  The GOP would end up 0/8 easily in a bad cycle.  And even in a Kerry year, it could still end up 0/8 with the right candidates.  

I also assume that the GOP would want to get rid of Peterson, and because the metro seats had to expand north, MN-8 is now just all of northern MN.  Which pushes MN-7 west central and much more south, taking in a lot of GOP territory in MN-1 and MN-1 moves a little more north on it's east end because MN-2 will no longer want to pick up blue Rice county and the district then just moves along the St. Croix, picking up counties that barely went for McCain and where Walz could curb stomp.

The map we have now is probably the best a GOP gerrymander could be, save for Peterson not getting screwed.  And the court's fucking drew it!

[ Parent ]
GOP Gerrymander
There is quite a different map that would result in a better GOP setup than they have now. You just aren't thinking evil enough. Expand the 8th all the way to the North Dakota border while moving out of the exurbs of Minneapolis, this puts Peterson and Oberstar in the same district. Then you make the 7th a mid-latitude district going from the Dakotas all the way to Wright County, no Democrat would really stand a chance there except MAYBE Peterson, but he would have to move to run there. You combine Minneapolis and St. Paul, throw a little bit of the teabaggy places just to the west of Hennepin county and add them to the rest of Hennepin county to shore up Paulsen. Run the 2nd district from Carver County all the way over to Dakota, which would be an easy hold for Kline. Then you put the conservative places in Sibley Meeker and McCleod counties to the 1st to make Walz less safe. Then you have what is left of the current 6th and the southern edge of the current 8th to make a northern exurb GOP-swing district.

1st-Walz in a more competitive GOP-friendly district (Tossup)
2nd-Kline in a ~R+4 District (Likely GOP, Safe with Kline)
3rd-Shore up Paulsen by added parts of Wright and Carver County while losing Bloomington (Likely GOP)
4th- New North suburban district (Likely GOP)
5th-Minneapils/St. Paul Safe DFL
6th-East Metro district (Lean DFL)
7th-Central Western Minnesota-(Likely GOP)
8th-Northern Minnesota, Peterson. V Obersar (Safe DFL)

In a bad year, it is 1 2-6 map, at best the DFL could hope for a 4-4 split.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Yup, that's possible
Ive definitely started a map like this but I think it started getting too ugly and I never finished it.  Or I tried to make a Bonoff district as well which wont really work in this scenario.

I'll make this my Friday night plans, I already wanted to drink a bit so this is a good accompaniment.  Politics and booze, such a great, and angry, combination.

Be back later with a map for ya.

[ Parent ]
enjoy
Photobucket

I threw in the added bonus of screwing over Kline simply because it was a lot easier.  Paulsen lives in Eden Prairie (just recently named the best city to live in by CNNMoney) which is in the SW metro, which are the suburbs that make up Kline's base.  I could have gerrymandered something awful to keep Kline around, but it would have been really tough and ugly, and pointless.

Paulsen would also probably start moving right in this district so him and Kline would probably be pretty equal in terms of governing style and such.

[ Parent ]
rybak would still have been our best candidate, but
dayton is running an effective race nailing down the progressives in a 3 way race.  hope the meds don't wear off.

as for redistricting bachmann out - if MN loses a house seat (about 50/50 right now) and it's hers - giving some to the 7th (northwest MN), some to the 8th (northeast MN) and some to the 4th (st paul & burbs).

I Think the DWI thing is killing Emmer
One old DWI arrest would not have been a huge deal. Two is a problem but they were a long time ago so it would be survivable if handled correctly. The fact he tried to weaken Drunk Driving laws on top of it is a killer.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
Oh for sure
That 527 and Entenza are just relentless on attacking Emmer to death. The DFL primary isn't about bashing each other, it is about bashing Emmer the best. Honestly, I think that is the reason behind this huge drop in Emmer's popularity, and his potential opponents' rise. This is the way competitive Democratic (DFL) primaries should be waged, honestly.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Agree
I know many feared a competitive primary would doom the Dems chances, the opposite appears to be true.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
pretty way for a democratic primary

I like
[ Parent ]
After watching
Matt Entenza's ads, I'm kinda developing a liking for him. Especially since it looks like he's made education and scrapping Every No child left behind a major selling point of his campaign. Plus his running mate is pretty hot....

But I'll be okay if Dayton wins too. Maybe even MAK but she gives me the stale insider feeling.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
I don't guess
Emmer is gonna need to spend more time with his family any time soon and be replaced with Mark Kennedy or someone? I know ya'll are gonna say just b/c he is a flawed he can't be replaced. However, there is one reason he could be. How embarrassing would it be for T-Paw in 2012 primary if we lost his home state governorship, while he was vice-chair of the RGA?  
Would
Kennedy or any other serious candidate want to run this late in the game though? They would have to make up a lot of ground very fast.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Mark Kennedy
Mark Kennedy has a worse shot at this than Emmer if something otherworldly bizarre like that happens. Kennedy was last seen not even pulling 40% in his fist and only statewide race (an open seat, by the way). Emmer CAN pull this out, but he is going to need to get the finances to get on the air ASAP to even have a prayer.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
...but but
Mark Kennedy was "such a great candidate"! How could you have forgotten that?
[ Parent ]
Then why
Does everyone act like he was a great candidate in 2006? I guess he ran a very bad campaign, but no one thought that would happen when he announced?  
[ Parent ]
Mark Kennedy was...
...by far the best option the GOP had. There is no bench to speak of for them. Over 2/3 of the state legislators are DFL, every statewide office except Governor and Lt. Governor are DFL. The Lt. Governor is pretty much unelectable after her complete mishandling of the 35W bridge situation. (She was also head of MNDOT in 2007, and ignored engineers' reports about the unsoundness of the bridge. She was grossly unqualified for that position, and it cost people their lives.)

What is left of the GOP in Minnesota?

Former DFL mayor of St. Paul, turned Republican Senator, Norm Coleman? He couldn't even muster 42% of the vote against a comedian from New York that had never held political office before?

Former 2-term governor Arne Carlson? He is nearly 80, and he was an avid Obama supporter.

Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann? She under-performs Generic-R in her district, which is the reddest in the state. No way could she succeed statewide.  

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Paulsen, he's voted pretty conservatively
but nothing unelectable statewide.

And he doesnt come off as smarmy as Coleman.  That's why I think he lost and comes off so poorly, he just seems like a smarmy bastard who'd sell his mother up the river to win an election.  He has a douchebag factor.

[ Parent ]
Paulsen
Paulsen is certainly one of the few shining stars the Republicans have in Minnesota, but if Dayton or Entenza or MAK win the governor's mansion, the DFL will have control over redistricting, and Paulsen's district is pretty freaking easy to make a LOT bluer. The 3rd is entirely within Hennepin county, and you could keep it 100% Hennepin county, without splitting Minneapolis proper, and make that a D+6 or D+7 district pretty easily.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
He was a great candidate
and in different year he may have become senator and a GOP star.  But 2006 was a horrible year in a lean Democratic state and Klobuchar was also a great candidate.  That added up to a landslide defeat.

I would compare Kennedy to Jack Conway this year, if Trey Greyson was the GOP nominee.  Rand Paul complicates the comparison, however.

Another one similar to Kennedy is Paul Ryan.  I think he would have ousted Feingold if he had ran decent campaign.  But if Obama bounces back and Ryan runs in 2012, he might go down just like Kennedy did in 2006.  

[ Parent ]
It's a bit like "Good News (!) For McCain"
Mark Kennedy was held to a paltry 54% against Patty Wetterling in '04, what was a pretty good year for them. He was basically hailed as "Such a great candidate!" by so many political prognosticators it was funny, and most kept this race at toss-up until around Summer. (Look at, for example, Chris Cillizza: http://voices.washingtonpost.c... or, although it's not the full story, Rothenberg: http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo... )

After all that, he loses in a Santorum-esque margin, even as T-Paw gets elected (albeit narrowly, and thanks to bad gaffes on the Dem side). It just seems so funny considering how well-hyped Kennedy was throughout most of the campaign.

I've always thought that the reason many political prognosticators are so negative on Dems chances this time around are that they were more or less punked from 2006, and do not want to be punked again this early in the game (oh and, anyone remember Ken Lucas? He was supposed to win or come close this time around in the game). Either all these guys are gonna have a bunch of egg on their face, or more conservative race selections like CQpolitics will. We shall see.

[ Parent ]
Someone should have ran against him in the primary
As Emmer isnt even technically the candidate yet.
[ Parent ]
You would really piss off the activists
who have wanted a candidate like Emmer for the longest time.  
[ Parent ]
The activists really didnt care much for T-Paw
until 2007 when he became known as Governor Veto.  Before that, he acknowledged global warming and he helped get one of those bills passed that mandates a percentage of energy sources from renewables by whatever year.  (I want to say the percentage was around twenty.  20% by 2020 sounds kind of right, but maybe Im making that up.)

The DFL took overwhelming the control of the state house in 2006 and now he just smacks us down and is uber popular.  It's very Brewer-esque.

[ Parent ]
Pawlenty
The man does what a Republican has to do to get elected in Minnesota. He doesn't put his foot in his mouth, he does not discuss his conservative ideology, he highlights his moderate positions, he seems like a nice guy, and he won the 45% required to be elected governor in Minnesota with a strong IP presence.

I wouldn't say Pawlenty is "popular" I would say he has moderate approval ratings (which I guess is really popular in today's world). Somewhere in the high 40s and hovering around 50. But in Minnesota, that's about as high a Republican can hope to get.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
Curious
what happened in Minnesota on the legislative level. From 2004 to 2006 the DFL registered major gains in the legislature. Which leads me to why that happened and why the DFL held just a handful of legislative seats before 2004?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Legislative Seats
The courts drew a very favorable map for the Republicans at the congressional and state legislature levels. The Democrats didn't have just a handful of seats. They districts were competitive, and in 2002, on the heels of 9/11, Republicans won a lot of the swingy districts that the courts had just drawn. Those swingy districts swung wildly the other way in 2006 and 2008.

Oh, and to comment on the handful of legislative seats: It is not a good representation of reality. The DFL has had control of the State Senate since the early 70s. It was the House that Republicans briefly had by a narrow margin until the 2006 elections. In the last 23 years, Republicans had the majority for only 8 of them in the House.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
emmer
emmer seems to stubborn to actually step aside though.

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't
Underestimate Pawlenty. Pawlenty will probably do anything to avoid a huge embarrassment just about 4 or 5 months before he announces his candidacy for President. If it weren't for that, I wouldn't bring this up. But, if he loses the governorship in his state, that would not be good for him. Maybe Emmer would drop out for LG?  
[ Parent ]
meh
romney lost his state's governorship and while he lost the nomination in 2008, it wasn't because of that.  Now,  he's still likely to be nominated, or at least have a chance.  i losing a state's governorship is inside baseball.  he might lose some donors, but voters won't care.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Romney
Was governor of a much bluer state.  
[ Parent ]
Southern New England
isn't that Democratic in terms of gubernatorial elections actually. (just look at RI where we somehow elected a douchebag who makes no pretense of being moderate.) of course this doesn't mean anything to most people (who will automatically think Massachusetts=Democratic) but Patrick's 2006 win was not an inevitability. Perhaps people did realize that Romney helped lose the governorship; his sharp rightward turn certainly damaged his Lt. Governor, Kerry Healey.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
MA vs. MN
I wouldn't say bluer. Reagan never carried Minnesota. No Republican candidate for ANY statewide office has won 50% in Minnesota in close to 20 years, and that was a very liberal Republican incumbent governor  

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
i know pawlenty would do anything..
but would emmer acutally listen. i could see emmer complaing that "moderates" like pawlenty are trying to push him out and that would only make him want to stay in unless theres some devastating personal story that can be proven that none of us know about. i think it would only get his supporters more fired up and if he did drop out, they would probably just stay home.

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)
[ Parent ]
Unless Emmer pulls a Grunseth...
... he is not going anywhere.

For those of you to young to remember Jon Grunseth was the 1990 Republican candidate for governor who's campaign was derailed by allegations he had invited 3 teenage girls to skinny dipping in his pool. He was replaced 9 days before the election by Arnie Carlson who went on the defeat Rudy Perpich (the last Dem Governor of Minnesota).

Minnesota Elections are seldom boring.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Wow
He won an election in 9 days! I did not know that. The incumbent Governor must have been very unpopular on was Carson just very popular?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I think it had to do with Perpich's popularity.
I remember from Mark's blog that metro area voters never really connected with Iron Ranger Perpich (who was pro-life) and found Carlson (who was pro-choice) as an acceptable alternative. It's just as crazy today to imagine a Republican winning Minneapolis/St. Paul as it is to imagine a California Republican winning the San Francisco Bay Area!

http://mark28.blogspot.com/200...

At that point, the election began to hinge around, of all things, abortion. Perpich was a pro-life Democrat while Carlson was a pro-choice Republican. Given the state's sinking economic condition, metro area voters who never fully connected with Perpich in the first place found Carlson an acceptable alternative to Perpich and to the more conservative Grunseth. As a consequence, Carlson's five-day campaign resulted in a win, with an unusual county map that was mostly blue outstate but red even in the heart of the metro area (Hennepin and Ramsey Counties). Arguably the two biggest upsets of November 6, 1990, were both in Minnesota, with Paul Wellstone and Arne Carlson narrowly prevailing over the incumbent Rudys (Boschwitz and Perpich).


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Yea.
Minnesotans can put together a makeshift campaign on little to no notice and run competitively. Hell, Wellstone died less than 2 weeks from the election, and the replacement Mondale nearly beat Coleman in a Republican year.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
true, but
he was a former senator, vice president and national party nominee.  and it was a senate seat in a year where the senate was tilting on a knife's edge.  there's more attention put on the senate and mondale's status afforded him more attention and resources.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
MN-Gov: Can You Feel the Emmer-mentum? | 63 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox