And if memory serves

they're super defensive about their LV model. Didn't they write to SSP after polling Tim Bishop's district?

I also followed the link from the 2008 election, and I find it funny that everyone wrote off Al Franken close to the election. People said that he was sucky candidate--one person said we should have devoted more attention to the campaign of Jim Martin.

A lot of the people who left those comments are people who I read a lot of on this site, so I think it's a lesson that we should all be more optimistic about 2010 :)

And... Go Al Franken!

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

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by: nycyoungin @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 05:00:39 AM UTC

He was an incredibly sucky candidate

He only won by 200-something votes for a reason.

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by: Andrew @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 17:03:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

he is my fave Senator though

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by: Andrew @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 22:07:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Speaking of Minnesota ...

... has anyone seen the 2010 candidate match-up for the Minnesota House Of Representatives in district 56A?  Jim Martin is running.

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by: votejimmartin @ Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 18:39:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This guy is a Teabagger, isn't he?

Is it really possible for a Teabagger to win statewide office in MN? I mean, sure, they have a Republican Governor now, but I haven't seen anyone say he's run the state as an extremist.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 05:44:51 AM UTC

Definitely a tea-bagger

But probably isnt going run his campaign that way but it's going to be hard to deny the things he's said and the legislation he's authored.  (One being the state of MN doesnt have to abide federal laws unless we pass said legislation by a 2/3rds vote in the state legislature as well.  Moron.)

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by: Andrew @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 17:05:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maybe the DFL will get rid of the goofus process if they are trounced

... or not.

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by: tommypaine @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 06:30:49 AM UTC

If we end up with MAK as our nominee and we lose

Ive personally decided to start a grassroots campaign here in MN to get rid of the process.  Enough is enough.

I doubt it'd be ultimately successful, the DFL here REALLY loves their endorsement process.  Not sure why, it is very obviously flawed in a very deep systematic way.  They think it's great to give all sorts of candidates the shot to run because running in an endorsement is dirt cheap (you can do it under 100k EASILY) and then you have to run a real grassroots organization (no, you dont) so overall it gets so many more people involved (only more candidates.)

And one of the main problems is super-delegates.  MAK came into the convention with an extra like 150 votes in her pocket, most of whom are state representatives and senators who can really put the pressure onto undecided delegates from their home districts.

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by: Andrew @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 17:28:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

With this results Rybak would be back too

I take not that as a rejection of democratic candidates what continue in the race, I take this poll as an attack to all dems from Minnesota, and as an attack to our intelligence. SurveyUSA would very stupid and silly if give the numbers what show the manipulation, but here we have an atrocious cocktail mixed for damage to the dems from Minnesota.

These results mean N Coleman would crush all democratic runners for governor, and what tell about T Pawlenty. With these results Rybak would be back too, so this is an implicit attack to Rybak supporters too.

But we know T Pawlenty retires cause of his weakness against Dayton and Rybak in the polls (a risk for a future presidential bid), and N Coleman decides run not by the same reason, cause of his weakness, because he was back the democratic frontrunners in the polls.

After see this poll, the republicans what believe these results must be sad because the poll include not results about T Emmer against A Franken and A Klobuchar.

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by: abgin @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 07:16:27 AM UTC

Uh, why would it?

Emmer's running for Governor, not Senate, and neither Franken nor Klobuchar have indicated any interest in being Governor.  So why would SurveyUSA test that matchup in the first place?

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by: BruinKid @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 07:23:44 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

With this level for Emmer...

I tell that because republicans are finding people what can endanger every democratic senator. With this level of results, Emmer can become dangerous for A Franken or A Klobuchar in 2012 or 2014...

I mean these numbers are not realistic.

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by: abgin @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 09:15:28 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's the saving grace...

that SurveyUSA seems to have a rough time polling Minnesota for whatever reason.  Their final pre-election poll from 2008 showed Obama only winning 49%-46%, which was hardly what happened, and Coleman winning by 5 points over Franken.  And they were the ONLY poll in the entire cycle to show McCain WINNING Minnesota.  This was in stark contrast to just about every other polling firm out there.  Even Rasmussen was correctly showing a double-digit win for Obama in Minnesota.

I'm hoping this is what's going on now too.  Unfortunately, they didn't do any approval ratings of Pawlenty, but given the national economy, it would seem he'd probably suffer in approvals just because the state of the economy is still recovering.  And that normally shouldn't help his party in the gubernatorial election.

It'd be great if DailyKos (hint, hint) or even Rasmussen (sigh, I know) would poll MN-Gov to get another data point on this.

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by: BruinKid @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 07:22:38 AM UTC

MN is hard to poll

I suspect like other areas with lots of "Independents" Minnesota is hard to poll.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

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by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 11:24:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Same-day voter registration

New voters can register on election day and vote, which tends to benefit Democrats.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 12:15:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bingo!

I agree with this assessment.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 12:53:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I dont know if MN necessarily has more Indy's

Which is hard to tell because we dont register a party affiliation and the Indy Party does so well only because the endorsement process results in shitty and often time extremist candidates.  Their vote total rarely reflects actual number of people who identify with the Indy Party but more so how many people got chased away from their normal political lean because of they didnt like the candidate.  (Hatch scared off lots of DFLers with him being a bit of an asshole.)

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by: Andrew @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 17:36:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Adjustment?

Is there a way to adjust the Survey USA numbers to what we'd expect from 18-34 year-olds to see what a "normal" polling result would look like?

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by: alphaaqua @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 19:57:24 PM UTC