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Kansas, Michigan & Missouri Primary Results Thread #2

by: James L.

Tue Aug 03, 2010 at 9:38 PM EDT


11:07pm: Follow us over here.
11:05pm: One more KS-Sen point before we wrap up this thread: four of the largest counties in Moran's KS-01 have reported either 0 or 1 precincts so far: Reno (Hutchinson), Geary (Junction City), Ford (Dodge City), and Finney (Garden City). So the tide is only beginning to turn.
10:57pm: More on KS-Sen: even with Johnson Co., Moran is still leading Tiahrt in the neutral districts, 48-45. Their own districts are a wash: Moran is winning the 1st 69-28, and Tiahrt is winning the 4th 67-28.
10:55pm: Now this is interesting. Johnson Co., the biggest county in Kansas, seemed to report every precinct en masse... and it went narrowly for Tiahrt (49-45) despite Moran, at least to my mind, fitting its suburban profile better. Nevertheless, despite losing the prize of Johnson Co., Moran is, as expected, starting to pull back ahead. He's up to a 48-46 lead over Tiahrt, with 56% reporting statewide.
10:51pm: SSP Labs is projecting 39.1% for Benishek, 37.4% for Allen when all is said and done in MI-01.
10:48pm: 88% are reporting in MI-01 R, and we aren't anywhere near a conclusion yet. It's Benishek over Allen, 39-38, with a 900-vote spread separating them.
10:46pm: And add yet one more. The AP has called MI-07 R for Tim Walberg, who beats Brian Rooney 59-31. That's gotta be good for us... Walberg is too wingnutty for that swing district, and having run for that office the last three times, everybody already knows him.
10:44pm: The AP adds one more call: the D primary in MI-12. Sandy Levin beats the promotion-seeking state Sen. Mickey Switalski fairly convincingly, 73-27.
10:43pm: And the AP has called KS-04 D for Raj Goyle, who most definitely did not get VicRawl'd tonight. He beats Robert Tillman 81-19, a bit like smashing an ant with a hammer, but those ads will still help build up his name rec for November.
10:41pm: The AP has called MI-Gov R for Rick Snyder. Good news: the next governor of Michigan will not be a wingnut. Bad news: Snyder, with his moderate appeal, will probably be the toughest matchup for Bernero in November.
10:37pm: I haven't seen this many Dutch guys beating the crap out of each other since the last time Feyenoord played PSV Eindhoven. (Sorry, obscure 'football' reference there.)
10:36pm: Meanwhile, back in MI-02, which Hoekstra is probably feeling bad about having vacated, it's a 30-30 tie between Huizenga and Kuipers. Social con Riemersma (who polls had in the lead) is falling back to 18, with teabagger Cooper at 12.
10:34pm: No AP call yet on the GOP side in MI-Gov, but we're getting word that Peter Hoekstra has conceded the race (presumably to Snyder, who leads Hoekstra 37-26, with Cox at 24).
10:32pm: Here's more data from SSP Labs, about KS-Sen, where the spread is about 600 votes. About 40% of Tiahrt's district has reported, though, while only 23% of Moran's has, and Moran is winning the other two CDs, 51-41.
10:31pm: In Missouri, Vicki Hartzler has pulled into a bigger lead in the MO-04 GOP primary. She's up on Stouffer, 42-30. That's with 62% reporting, including both of their home counties fully in.
10:29pm: Great White Dope Lynn Jenkins is going back to the House from KS-02 for another term, it looks like. The AP has called her race against Dennis Pyle, although she finishes with an underwhelming 59%.
10:26pm: In KS-Sen, the real question mark is going to be Johnson County. This is the most populous county in the state, the suburbs ringing Kansas City, Kansas, and the core of KS-03. Only 1 of 447 is reporting so far (with a 50-42 lead for Moran, in case you care).
10:25pm: This is the first time all night we've seen a Todd Tiahrt lead in KS-Sen. They're both at 47%, with Tiahrt ahead by about 900, with 27% reporting. Bear in mind, though, that Segwick Co. (Wichita, Tiahrt's town) has largely reported; it's 74% in. So this is probably as good as it gets for Tiahrt.
10:20pm: We've suddenly jumped to two-thirds reporting in the MO-07 R primary. That clot of Nodler voters in Newton Co. apparently showed up, but it's not enough to swing the needle. It's still Long 35, Goodman 29, Nodler 16.
10:08pm: Over in MI-01, Benishek now leads Allen by 39-38. In KS-01, Huelskamp has pulled to a 35-25-24 lead over Barnett and Mann, but there are lots of votes left to count there.
10:03pm: In the KS-Sen race, Moran now leads Tiahrt by only 47-46, but bear in mind that Tiahrt's home district (KS-04) has more precincts reporting than Moran's 1st CD so far.
10:01pm: Over in MI-13, Clarke leads Cheeks Kilpatrick by 48-38 with just under 37% in. To take a look at the track record of other House incumbents who've faced primaries this cycle, check out our handy chart here.
9:58pm: With more than 1/3 in, things are still very tight in MO-04. Hartzler leads Stouffer, 37-35. On the Dem side, the race has been called for Ike Skelton. He defeated man/lion hybrid Leonard Steinman... the very kind of being that the GOP is looking to stamp out... 81 to 19.
9:56pm: One race that isn't close is MI-07, also with almost half in. It's Walberg 58, Rooney 32. Thus ending the dream of two Rooney brothers in the House... and of Domino's Pizza having its own personal in-house Representative.
9:55pm: More than half is reporting in MI-01, and Jason Allen continues to nurse a small lead (39-37) on Dan Benishek.
9:53pm: On the R side, we're probably nowhere near a call. Snyder's at 37, with Hoekstra closest at 26, and Cox at 24. Bouchard (and by extension Ted Nugent) pretty much a non-factor here at 11.
9:51pm: The AP has called MI-Gov D for Virg Bernero! He leads Andy Dillon at the same 58-42, with about 20% reporting.
9:49pm: Wow, things are even closer in KS-Sen now. It's Moran 47, Tiahrt 46 with 10% in.
9:48pm: In KS-04, we have enough to report on: Mike Pompeo leads at 37, with Jean Schodorf (who led at very first) at 29, and Wink Hartman at 21. And on the Dem side, looks like the Raj Goyle ad blitz paid off, and then some. He's beating Robert Tillman 79-21.
9:47pm: Back in KS-02, Lynn Jenkins continues to underwhelm in the GOP primary; she's at 59 against teabagging state Sen. Dennis Pyle. At least she's doing better than Sean Tevis, who's in 3rd and last place among the Dems.
9:46pm: Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick looks like she's on her way to becoming the 4th primary casualty in the House this year. With 27% in, she trails Hansen Clarke 50-35.
9:45pm: Wow, nearly a 3-way tie in the GOP field in KS-01: Mann 29, Huelskamp 28, Barnett 26.
9:43pm: Things are just getting underway in KS-03, with about 3% in, but Kevin Yoder has a pretty solid lead over Patricia Lightner in the GOP primary: 48-35.


Moving the party over to a fresh new thread.

Results:

     Kansas: Associated Press | Politico

     Michigan: Associated Press | Politico | MI DoS

     Missouri: Associated Press | Politico | MO SoS

James L. :: Kansas, Michigan & Missouri Primary Results Thread #2
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Man, Dillon's numbers are really bad for his position
I grant that Begnero has strong union support (which is really important in Michigan) but still.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


Speaking as a MI-Gov(D) voter
Part of my motivation for voting for Bernero was precisely because of Dillon's position.  He's shown almost zero leadership ability, IMO.  Out of the three budgets they've done while he's been Speaker, not counting the one currently being worked on, two have been late.  Largely due to the fact that Mike Bishop knows how to play Dillon like a fiddle.

28, Male, MI-09 (home), MD-07 (school)

[ Parent ]
This is the Only Time in My Life...
...that I can think of a Michigan election--and I'm from MI--where it would have been better to have the Republican win than, if Dillon had won the primary, the Democrat.

Dillon would have been just as bad as any Republican, AND he would have destroyed the party.  


[ Parent ]
House speakers
I've noticed a trend where state house speakers and senate presidents (and their minority counterparts) seem to do poorly in statewide elections, especially in a large state. It's a nice-sounding title, but no one really knows or cares what a state house speaker does, unless the lege had to offer painful cuts to services. Look at Andrew Romanoff: he's essentially had to sell his house to raise money to tie a real Some Dude in the polls.

In a primary it's usually about ideology anyway, or some urban vs. suburban vs. rural divide that all depends on how the lege is gerrymandered and how funds are doled out (think of the NY State Senate and its rural bias in districts and funding, which, I'm not sure, could be a similar case in Michigan that may have turned off Detroiters to the suburban Dillon).

People with Dillon's position probably do better in small states or congressional districts.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)


[ Parent ]
anyone know a good site
for voting totals by us districts?  

Snyder seems to be leading...
in most counties except a few out west where Hoekstra is winning and a few counties that are going for Cox.  I really didn't think Snyder would win but it looks like he will.    

I thought you were going to say
"personal pan representative," but I guess that's Pizza Hut.

Isn't it weird
... that Blunt won his primary by a wide margin despite a somewhat highly touted challenger, while Emerson and Jenkins faced "some guys" and aren't doing as well? Yeah, they're still winning, but still...

It has to do with getting caught off guard vs. knowing you've got to fight, and we'll see the same in November......
Lately I've become increasingly convinced we WILL lose the House, it's no longer a "tossup" in my mind.  We've had a further downward trend in the macroenvironment the past month or two as measured by the generic ballot and Obama's job approval.  And I don't dimiss the flurry polls, internal or otherwise, showing so many of our House incumbents in deep trouble.  We correctly hung our hats on exactly all these same data points in 2006 and 2008, and I do think House Democrats are in a little worse shape now than the House GOP was in either of those cycles, even though the fact they had those conditions in back-to-back cycles added up to approximately the same net losses that we had after the one election in 1994.

And with all that in mind, I think we're going to see some surpises this fall in both directions.  We're going to see a few of our endangered incumbents survive who weren't supposed to, but that will be more than offset by people losing no one thought would lose until trouble became apparent very late.  So I won't be shocked if people like Frank Kratovil or Chet Edwards survive while, say, Ike Skelton goes down.

Other commenters here have made the smart observation that our most vulnerable incumbents aren't in the reddest districts, but rather in the purple districts, since our purple-district incumbents took more risks in how they voted.  I think that's right.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Skelton's ready
His voting record snapped back to the right this term after drifting to the left over the years. Plus, Skelton's been so douchey lately with DADT that I think I wouldn't miss him all that much. It's like, vote against it if you feel you have to, you're in a largely rural R+14 so I'll cut you some slack. But don't be a douche about it. In case you don't know what I'm talking about....
According to the Associated Press, Skelton told reporters that repeal of the policy could put families in a difficult position because it could prompt children to ask about homosexuality. "What do mommies and daddies say to their 7-year-old child?" he asked.

How about: "it doesn't matter whose picture you have tucked underneath your flak jacket when you're taking a bullet for America" or maybe "it just means that people won't have to lie about who they are, sweetie."  Ugh.

Source: http://thinkprogress.org/2010/...

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
And Moran's lead is now down too 100 votes
Out of the almost 100,000 that are in. Moran should still win though because he seems to be winning the swing areas near Kansas City. Also, Sedgewick County (Wichita) in Tiahart's district just reported strongly so that should explain Tiahart's numbers.

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


It still
has aways to go though

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Good Point
 As I learned with California's Prop 16, initial numbers can be misleading, even if the swing counties are supporting the opposition. LA County had a 4 point deficit transformed into a 12 point lead.

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
If It's Early Votes That Are Mostly In, He's in Deep Trouble
Momentum in the last weeks has seemed to be with Tiarht. If the votes already counted were cast a few weeks ago, Moran may be done.  

[ Parent ]
Question.
I always wondered why and how the more ostensibly moderate Moran has consistently led Tiahart in the polls in a GOP primary. It runs counter to everything I know about GOP primaries.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
Kansas Has Elected Mostly Moderate Republicans Statewide
Every Republican governor they've had has tended to be quite moderate. Kassebaum was moderate, and Dole was a dealmaker. Brownback is the only extremely conservative statewide candidate to get reelected, and he only had one contested election, when we primaried Dole's hand-picked successor, Shelia Frahm, then faced Jill Docking in the 1996 election.

Kansas is a traditionally partisan Republican state (although Democrats have held the governorship for 20 of the last 32 years), but it's not as conservative as generally thought.  


[ Parent ]
Look at their congressional districts
Moran has the most overwhelmingly Republican district in the state, the R+23 1st District. Tiahrt's 4th District is R+14, but the PVI is a bit deceptive as there a lot fewer Republicans than that number would indicate. If both win roughly 80% of their constituents, which they seem to have done, Moran gets a heckuva lot more votes than Tiahrt does from his district.

The remaining two districts--the R+9 2nd District and the R+3 3rd District--have even less Republicans, especially because moderate Republicans in both districts are beginning to switch to unaffiliated or even Team Blue. Or at least, that's my theory on why Tiahrt did so well in the supposedly-more-moderate 3rd. Party registration numbers also support this conclusion as Republican registration has stagnated statewide while Dem & unaffiliated numbers have surged, especially in fast-growing Johnson County.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Snyder projected the winner
WXYZ (channel 7) projects Snyder and Bernero as the winners in Michigan's governor races.

http://www.wxyz.com/dpp/news/l...


Snyder and Moran are going to win....
I'm not quite sure why the MI Republican gubernatorial primary isn't being called for Snyder.  Hoekstra's base counties are pretty much all in and Snyder's winning nearly everywhere else.  The nerd's best counties are barely in, and Mike Cox looks like a poor second place finisher at best.  

In KS, it looks pretty obvious that Tiahrt caught up because Sedgewick County came in heavily. Moran should handily carry the big 3d district counties, which will be more than enough.    


Early Vote in Johnson County Was only 10k-8k Moran
If he only won the early vote in the heartland of moderate Republicans by that margin, it may be a lot closer than people expected.  

[ Parent ]
Moran and the Broader Issues
Maybe closer than people expected, but not a Tiarht win.  Some of the House races are turning out well for the hard-core conservative movement, but wins by Snyder (especially) and Moran (if only because Palin and the Right-to-Life folk will get a rare loss) will make them grumpy.  

[ Parent ]
We'll See
Tiahrt is leading in Wyandotte and Levenworth counties, and Douglas didn't give Moran much of a buffer. So, Tiahrt is doing pretty well in NE Kansas, which should be a good area for Moran. Nothing except early voting has come in from Johnson county, and little has come in from SE Kansas. So this is far from over.  

[ Parent ]
James,
is he winning KS-03 and KS-04 51-41? Or is it combined 51-41?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

KS-04
Goyle gets 80% of the vote. Good.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Glad to see that, but all Democratic votes combined there last night were outnumbeed by...
...the winner's total on the GOP side.  The GOP primary voting had a MASSIVE advantage.  Now, the lack of a competitive primary on our side played a big role in that, I realize, but even taking that into account Goyle's disadvantage starting out of the gate is daunting.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Politico
calls it for Walberg in MI-07

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Well...
there goes the possibility that MI-07 would achieve the feat of being represented by 5 different representatives during this particular geographic incarnation (that is,from 2002-2012). What can I say, I notice these odd patterns!

On the plus side, will Walberg be easier for Schauer to defeat a second time?


[ Parent ]
Yes and no
this a harder cycle than 2008, but Walberg is damaged goods and pretty much the worst candidate possible aside from an Alvin Greene clone or something. This is what, his fourth run for MI-07 in a row? This guy is nothing more than Michigan's Mike Sodrel, and with him as the Republican nominee I would personally consider this at least Lean D. The only way I'd consider it a tossup is if polling came out showing that or if Joe Schwarz endorsed Walberg. Even if Walberg wins, he would remain vulnerable in a more Democratic cycle, and I think it's hard to make this district more Republican without hurting Mike Rogers or Fred Upton.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
nothing i love more than ssp on uberprimary day
helpful thought. just a suggestion. maybe not even feasible. you already do a lot for us. uberprimary day is a fast and furious event. maybe dont worry about it. never mind.
but just a thought, maybe a parenthetical reminder of the candidate's unideminsonal identity like "(auctioneer)" or "(labor guy)" or "(stone clod fucking lunatic)" in the down balloteys.
maybe you cant. just a thought. no big whoop.

johnson county all in
Tiahrt won it 48-44 and about a 3k vote margin. he still trails statewide though. so i would say moran will likely win.

20, male, independent, WI-07.

Oops--Tiahrt Carries Johnson County
So I still think Moran will win, but Johnson County just came all in, and the Toddster won it 49-45.  Moran's still up statewide, and doing well in Shawnee, but the power of the RTL folk is real.  

Didn't Moran need that district?
Isn't that one of the more moderate Republican counties in the state?

[ Parent ]
It's your standard wealthy suburban moderate county
But some of the moderate Republicans got tired of battling the conservatives constantly and have left the party, leaving a somewhat more conservative base there (and helping Team Blue take over 5 state House seats in Johnson County alone in 2008). Since 2006, Republican registration numbers have flatlined despite rapid population growth, while Dem & unaffiliated registration have soared.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
County, not district is what I meant
nm

[ Parent ]
Isn't it time for the ganja break-

or did they take it earlier?  ;-)

You forgot Ajax!
(a note from West MI)

32, M, MI-6, Iconoclastic Leftist


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