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SSP Daily Digest: 7/29 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Thu Jul 29, 2010 at 8:07 AM EDT


  • CO-Sen: An unknown group called New Leadership Colorado hired Zata|3 to take a poll of the Dem primary, and survey says that Sen. Michael Bennet has a slim 44-40 lead over upstart Andrew Romanoff. As Colorado Pols points out, even though NLC claims to have no relationship with either campaign, the group's interests must lie with Romanoff - because no one affiliated with Bennet would want to release a poll that makes him look so vulnerable. Colorado Pols also observes that Zata|3, until this cycle, was not known as a pollster but rather as a firm that does robocalls and direct mail - and wonders why they've been tapped to do actual surveys.
  • FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek is refusing to say whether he'd back gajillionaire asshole Jeff Greene should Greene win the Democratic primary. (According to Politico, Greene has "signaled he would support Meek.") Politically speaking, if Meek crashes and burns, I wonder if he'd be better off endorsing Charlie Crist. After all, Crist is about a hundred (at least) times more likely to win the general than Greene, and since it seems he'd have to caucus with the Dems, backing him could earn Meek a chit or two down the line.
  • MO-Sen: A bunch of teabaggers are complaining that Michele Bachmann is coming to town to stump for her House colleague Roy Blunt - and not Chuck Purgason, the state senator who has failed to gain any traction in his primary bid. When Bachmann, the recent founder of the House Tea Party Caucus, isn't passing purity tests, you know your movement has reached "Judean People's Front" levels of absurdity.
  • NH-Sen: UNH, polling for WMUR, has AG Kelly Ayotte beating Dem Rep. Paul Hodes 45-37. That's actually an improvement for Hodes from April's 47-32 margin.
  • CO-Gov: The Denver Post has a helpful look at the American Constitution Party, the right-wing lunatic party whose line Tom Tancredo plans to run on for governor. Among other planks of their platform: repeal of the 17th amendment, repeal of the Endangered Species Act, and repeal of the Voting Rights Act. Sounds like they have a lot in common with the Republicans - they're both the party of no!
  • IL-Gov, IL-10: Capitol Fax busts two Republicans for engaging in shady Internet-related shenanigans. First up, someone claiming to be with Bill Brady's gubernatorial decided to vandalize Brady's Wikipedia page, turning it into a campaign press release, more or less. Of course, the encyclopedia's trusty editors quickly reverted these ridiculous edits - which only led to a revision war, as Brady's stupid minions kept trying to push their nonsense. The page is now locked. As Capitol Fax reiterates, all this shit is permanent. As in, you get to look like an idiot forever.
  • Meanwhile, in suburban Chicago, GOPer Bob Dold's campaign doesn't seem to understand this lesson. He put up an item on his Facebook page the other day saying he supports Rep. Paul Ryan's "Roadmap for America's Future" - you know, the economic "plan" which calls for destroying Medicare and Social Security, among other things. After Dan Seals lacerated Dold's punk ass for this, Dold took the post down. But the enterprising ArchPundit was smart enough to grab a screen capture while the post was still live. Explaining the deletion, a Dold hack said, "It's Facebook. We put things up and take things down all the time." Um, no - you don't actually get to do that. Trust me on this one - I'm from the Internet.

  • TN-Gov: Dem gubernatorial candidate Mike McWherter is up on the air with his first ad, a positive bio-ish spot. NWOTSOTB, of course.
  • NC-07: Barf: Kelsey Grammer, that rare breed of Hollywood Republican, is coming to North Carolina to do fundraisers for GOPer Ilario Pantano, who is running against Rep. Mike McIntyre. Pantano, as you probably know, is best known for emptying two magazines from his M-16 into two Iraqi prisoners, killing them both, because he wanted to "send a message."
  • NY-15: We'll probably stop following this whip count soon, but anyhow, freshman Dem Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is now the third House incumbent to call on Charlie Rangel to resign. If the floodgates do open up on this, any latecomers to the bandwagon will see diminishing returns on their calls for resignation.
  • PA-06: Yesterday, we mentioned a Jim Gerlach internal which had him up 54-29 over Manan Trivedi. Well, the team down at the SSP Records & Storage went dumpster diving through our deep archive to dig up an old Gerlach internal from September of 2008. That survey showed him up 57-28 over Some Dude Bob Roggio. (SSPR&S believes that this might have actually been the very first "Some Dude" reference on SSP.) You will recall that Gerlach beat Roggio by just 52-48.
  • TN-06: That's interesting: Veteran Brett Carter launched a TV ad touting his military experience. Then veteran Ben Leming launched a TV ad, touting his military experience. What's interesting is that both of these guys are running in the Democratic primary - in a seat largely written off by national Dems. NWOTSOTB for either candidate, but both men have limited cash-on-hand (Carter $100K, Leming $35K).
  • DNC: The DNC just transferred $2.5 million to a number of sister organizations, including the DSCC, DCCC and three marquee gubernatorial campaigns (FL, MD and PA). Click the link for the complete breakdowns.
  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 7/29 (Morning Edition)
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    PA-6
    Thanks for pulling up the some dude poll from 2008.  

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    FL-Sen: Greene takes 10 point lead over Meek
    I can't say I'm too disappointed
    Don't get me wrong, I'm not a Greene fan at all. But I'm bearish on Meek's chances of winning the general election and this would make it easier for the Democratic establishment to back Crist.

    Honestly, I think it's worth supporting Crist simply for the sake of seeing Republicans' reaction when he takes out their golden boy Rubio.

    19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)


    [ Parent ]
    I don't disagree with any of what you write ...
    .... especially the "watcing the Republicans eat it" part, but I can't get over how embarassing it would be for our party to have the likes of Jeff Greene as our nominee for major statewide office.

    Along these lines, if he loses the primary, I totally think Kendrick Meek should endorse Charlie Crist.  I actually like Meek more than a lot of people here seem to, and he's been caught in a strange situation mostly not of his own making.  I think he has a future in the party, regardless of what happens this fall (and like pretty much everyone else here, I don't see it including any reasonable path to the United States Senate, although if I could wave a magic wand, I would create Senator Meek before I would create Senator Crist).


    [ Parent ]
    It would be a bit embarassing
    But I don't think there would be any long term consequences if the party bigshots actively flock to the Crist camp. SC Dems have a much more embarassing candidate with Alvin Greene, and they're holding up alright.

    And you're right, if all was well, Florida would elect Sen. Meek come November. But times are rough and we have to live with the opportunities we have. Besides, the more the tea party lobs grenades at Crist, the more I'm confident he'll support the Democratic agenda knock on wood...

    19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)


    [ Parent ]
    Holding up alright?
    SC Dems have a much more embarassing candidate with Alvin Greene, and they're holding up alright.

    How do you figure that they're "holding up alright"? Does that mean they'll win anything? What does it mean?

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    Mostly Agreed...
    That Meek's real trouble isn't of his own doing.

    But.

    The guy was raising money at a pretty great clip, he had the primary all to himself for a little while, and we all saw the Rubio/Crist nightmare coming. He would've been better off to have been on the air back then, creating an image of himself as a calm, sensible representative while those other two yo-yos tried to out-Teabag each other for months. And of course, had he done that right, had he really cemented the Democratic base, Greene might not jump in, Crist might not see a middle road to victory, etc.

    I know that hindsight is 20-20, but I was wondering why Meek wasn't really on the air yet months ago, too. Just seems like there was a different way this could've played out.

    (Not that I'm complaining that much; if Crist wins, he'll be a frequent vote for cloture, and maybe even a part of the Dem caucus, and if THAT happens, I have no problem seeing him make a Specter-esque move into the mainstream of the caucus).


    [ Parent ]
    A good/legitmate point
    I'll tell ya, if I was a political consultant or campaign manager for ANY of the candidates for gov or sen in Florida, I'd have a bottle of tylenol and a bottle of bourbon close at hand!

    [ Parent ]
    Eek
    don't have both at the same time... that's probably not good for you.

    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

    [ Parent ]
    Crist will caucus with the Democrats......
    There's no "maybe," his bread is buttered by the left, and the GOP no longer will have him.

    He knows that, that's why he's pivoted to the left since switching to indy.

    And you have to caucus to get committee assignments, which are essential to being an effective Senator.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    This race is f'ed up
    If you have Undecided in the lead with less than a month to go. The best thing for Democrats is for them to consolidate behind Charlie Crist now.

    [ Parent ]
    Well
    I think for the most part Democrats are consolidating around Crist. That is what polling says anyway.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    Perhaps Democrats should
    write in Crist in the Democratic primary.

    [ Parent ]
    Gaming this out...
    I've been wondering for the first time if Greene, assuming he gets the nomination, actually has a chance in the general, despite the fact he has more baggage than Southwest Airlines.

    We all assume if Greene wins, Dems will go to Crist en masse. That's likley true of the Dem leadership (although if Greene wins convincingly over Meek, there might be some pause among those whose base consituency voted for Greene in large numbers), but I wonder if a lot of regular-Joe and Jane Dems are being swayed by Greene's outsider profile? Combined with the fact that Greene is the only one in the election with unlimited money, and this seems to be the year of the populist rich guy (or gal), and it seems to me that Greene and Crist may end up fighting over a lot of the Democractic - Indepdendent vote. I know there's a thought that if that's true Rubio could win it, but there may not be enough conservatives who also will vote for a Cuban in Florida for him to pull it off.

    I know - it sounds crazy, and it probably is. Still, this is Florida, which has occupied the title of craziest state in the union for a long time. Senator Jeff Greene, anyone?  


    [ Parent ]
    Doesn't That Scenario...
    ...seem to point to Senator Mark Rubio a little more? If suddenly the left side of the electorate is carved up by two candidates, Rubio's path gets much easier. Pretty much the reverse-nightmare scenario of how we thought this was going to go down.

    BTW, kinda sucks that if Crist wins, it both removes all African Americans from the Senate AND halves the number of Hispanics. That's not a good enough reason to vote any other way (especially not for Rubio!) but its exceedingly odd that we'll have a black President and no black Senators.


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, although its the left-center side, which has potentially more votes
    I realize as I'm writing this I know nothing about how Jeff Greene stands on any of the issues. I really know nothing about him period beyond he made a ton of money off the backs of poor people who couldn't afford their mortgages.  

    [ Parent ]
    But it does increase the number of
    Senators with awesome tans.

    Too bad Bob Conley isn't around for Tester to form that flat-top caucus with him.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


    [ Parent ]
    Not a snowball's chance in hell
    Money can't buy an election if a candidate is sufficiently flawed (like Meg Whitman and her $100M).

    Florida was one of the worst-hit states when the sub prime crisis exploded and Greene raked in big bucks at the expense of regular joes. The ads write themselves: carpetbagging rich dude who profited off of others' misery.

    That's one ugly shit stain that can't be cleansed with money.

    19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)


    [ Parent ]
    I hope your right, but...
    Two points:

    1). Whitman hasn't actually lost yet in California

    2). If Greene actually beats Meek, then his money did buy him the Democratic nomination.

    I'm no Greene fan. But you know, when it comes right down to it, I'm probably fine with him or Crist being in the Senate as long as they vote the right way.  


    [ Parent ]
    Fair enough
    but you have to admit, that Whitman should be cruising against Brown, especially since he's hardly lifted a finger so far. Her approval ratings are in the dump, too. Meek has likewise been a lot less active than he should be. I think he only recently came out with his first hit piece againt Greene and it's a hell of an ad.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

    19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)

    [ Parent ]
    I've said here several times before, general electorate is much more resistant to campaigning than a primary electorate......
    We have a binary political system, and voters dig in their heels and swing voters are much more scrutinous and skeptical in a general election than in a primary.

    In a primary, there's just not so much differentiation between candidates, so a rich guy/lady more easily buys votes.

    It gets a lot tougher in November, it takes more money to move the needle a lot less.

    Greene just won't be able to take Democrats from Crist.

    And, all the black voters will flock to Crist, that's a peculiar problem Greene can't overcome in a 3-way.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah
    but the thing is I think many Dems have already decided to go for Crist and are not even going to bother to vote in the primary. If Greene wins big it will be because no one really cares about the primary because they are already supporting Crist.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    That might be true...
    In which case disregard all my analysis from above. Under that scenario, Greene doesn't stand a chance, although he and his money could do some serious damage to Crist.  

    [ Parent ]
    Which is why if I lived in Florida
    I would write in Crist in the primary.  I think there should be a movement to write in Crist in the Dem primary.

    [ Parent ]
    No Dem leadership will endorse Crist
    He needs to do this as an Independent.  An Obama endorsement would rally Democrats, but cost him lots of GOP and Indy support.  And they have to know this; this is Crist's race and if Greene is the nominee, he'll win and I'll be doing tequila shots while reading the Redstate post solely about losing this race.  I'll have a ganj break and read the post the week before ED asking to pray for him, as well.

    Sorry Meek, this was not your year.  And I really do like him, but he can't ever win with Crist stealing any portion of the Democrats.  Not in FL, absolutely not this cycle.

    And Crist should start running ads against Meek as well.  With that investment and Meek beaten, he'd be getting lots more money from Democrats nationwide.  I think there are many political savvy Democrats who would love nothing more than to see Marco Rubio lose.  Plus, Id much rather not have to run against him for President, nip that shit in the bud.


    [ Parent ]
    PPIC speaks in CA
    Brown up 37-34, Boxer up 39-34.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    also, as a lulzy footnote
    the Political Wire entry for the CA-Sen portion of that poll says Barbara Boxer (R).

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Kaiser tracking poll
    says Americans support HCR, 50-35.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    Good news bears.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    I think Obama's approval is also a net positive
    You can look at all the polls in the world, but I have a feeling Obama is still generally liked among the people of the US. The Teabaggers are just a really loud crowd and always answer public opinion polls, usually with "Obama is a terrorist!" and "No Socialism!"

    Health care is popular, the economy is improving...we're going to be in better shape then we origionally thought.

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)


    [ Parent ]
    Ah yeah, but
    those people can be rude. In 2008 I was making calls to Indiana for the Obama campaign, and some crazy birther lady was like blah blah blah Barack HUSSEIN Obama blah blah blah and then hung up. she must have pulled out her hair when Barack HUSSEIN Obama won her state, lol.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Their April #s were far more positive than any other pollster's
    I suspect the reform's unfavorability is lowering somewhat, but I'd still hold off on making a definite judgment until other pollsters confirm it.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    It's inevitable
    that HCR would become more popular. I think the reason it was originally unpopular was because of constant distortions of what was actually in the bill. Also, I don't think that people liked the way it was debated on.

    It's good policy, and people are realizing it as such. November is going to be a lot better than people thought, say, a month ago.

    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan


    [ Parent ]
    According to this morning's Detroit Free Press
    new Detroit Free Press/WXYZ-Channel 7 poll has Lansing mayor Virg Bernero leading Michigan House Majority Leader Andy Dillon by 40% to 32%, with 28% undecided, with only five days to go before next week's primary.

    68, Dem-leaning indie, MI-8

    UNH polling isn't worth a damn
    I'm putting money on PPP's numbers since UNH/Granite State flat out sucks. It'd be great if maybe Quinnipiac (this seems like their turf) or one of the few other reliable pollsters could give us a real idea as to where this race actually stands.

    19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)

    I don't think
    Quinnipiac polls NH.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    That's too bad
    As a CT-based college, I think it'd make plenty of sense for them to poll the most important federal election in New England.

    19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)

    [ Parent ]
    Aside from
    their own state of CT, I don't think Quinnipiac polls any New England elections. Besides, Hamden, where Quinnipiac is located, is not in Fairfield County but is nevertheless closer to the NY suburbs as opposed to the part of CT which is bona fide New England.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    I actually met one of the Q-poll staffers at a political conference last weekend, and...
    ...he says their team does two polls per week and are exhausted from that, they really can't do more states without more staff.  They do a half-dozen states as it is, and that's an expansion from several years ago.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Seventeenthers
    So why again do they want to repeal the 17th amendment?  What stated reasons have these tea-partiers given?

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

    It's a States Rights thing, I believe
    In their imagination, restoring the power to appoint Senators to the legislatures will magically reduce the power of the Federal government back to the level it had in 1913.  I honestly don't get it myself.

    28, Unenrolled, MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    It is basically a federalism argument
    That the House was set up to be directly elected by the people, and the Senate elected by/to represent the states.  I think this argument held some political and ideological legitimacy IN THE 19th CENTURY, but is part and parcel now of the faux populism the baggers and their ilk are trying to ride to political power -- when it comes down to it, the leaders of this movement really don't have much faith or trust in everyday people to make political decisions.

    [ Parent ]
    17th Amendment...
    The idiots calling for the ending of the direct election of Senators fail to realize that over 30 states were holding Senate elections and appointing whomever won the vote when the 17th Amendment was passed.  An unelected Senate would have the same Democratic legitimacy as the British House of Lords or the Canadian Senate, two institutions that nobody cares about except to moan about them being unelected.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    I think neutering the Senate is exactly what they have in mind!


    [ Parent ]
    Conservatives should love the Senate
    The Senate and its rules insure they would always have the ability to slow legislation down and stop it.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    They aren't saying dont have a democratically elected Senate
    What they're saying is it's none of the federal governments business how Senators are chosen.  Makes you wonder though, how much can they possibly love the constitution if they want to change it?

    [ Parent ]
    IL-10 Roadmap for America's future
    I'm glad Bob Dold is feeling the heat for supporting it. We should be making Paul Ryan feel the heat for it too.

    26, male, Dem, NJ-12

    KY-03
    for those that didn't see it last night

    Internal Poll for Yarmuth (Cooper & Secrest)

    Yarmuth 58% (D)
    Lally 32% (R)

    http://barefootandprogressive....

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    Internal Poll, of course, but...
    ...if Yarmuth is even close to this safe, couldn't that be a good sign? In 2006, the NRCC chair said that this seat was his bellweather, if they held it, he knew they'd be fine.

    Maybe I'm just grasping at whatever thin strand of good news I can find, huh?


    [ Parent ]
    I
    do not think it is a bellwether per say. It is a very liberal area and Yarmuth is loved by everyone. Even Indies like him and believe it or not a lot of Republicans like him as well. He is very popular. The poll is not surprising.    

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    That surprises me
    it really does. Because Yarmuth is a solid liberal; maybe he is a better politician than I thought and has really made himself look good to socially moderate Republican suburbanites in Jefferson county who were previously so fond of Northup.

    On another topic, I think Jack Conway is going to redefine the term landslide in Jefferson County; I mean I think Paul might not get 70% of Republicans there, and might get barely a quarter of independents. Conway could go a long way to winning just by getting 65% in Jefferson County, plus big margins in Frankfort and Lexington, along with the traditional coal counties in the eastern part of the state where Rand Paul will not sell well. I even think Conway should be able to sell himself in the rural, farming areas of the southwestern part of the state by attacking Paul's position on farming subsidies, which is frankly a political gold mind. Feeling better about this race every day, especially if Conway's fundraising improves and he writes himself a check for a million or so; just so that he has enough money to put all Paul's baggage up on TV and say enough about himself to give voters a reason to vote for him.  


    [ Parent ]
    Conway needs to be campaigning in these rural areas now
    and be building the connections because he can really get attacked from absolutely every angle.

    [ Parent ]
    PPP and UNH both have Ayotte at 45%
    That might be meaningless but seems to be reasonable amount of support she'd have. That race is going to be a battle for the undecided voters.

    I'm glad Quinnipiac doesn't poll NH. They have had a significant D house effect this year and have fared poorly in recent cycles (They were way down in the weeds in Nate's rankings).  


    Quinnipiac
    Quinnipiac registered voter screen does not seem like much of a screen.  

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    IL
    Don't see the Brady thing as being much of anything, unless it becomes a trend of amateurism/petty thuggery. Which is possible, with the ILGOP.

    The Dold thing will have more legs, though. Pretty easy to turn that into an attack ad on the substance, and on the "secrecy" angle, too.

    Then again, in general, I think IL-10 is the easier race to win.


    If
    you want to see another Illinois Republican who has probably edited their own wikipedia page then check out this one out:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B...

    It is one big press release.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


    Lol at
    the second paragraph of the main part. yeah, a term limit is SUCH an unusual campaign promise!

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    I know
    The whole thing is just sooooo biased it is not funny. Someone should really edit it or tip off some press, wikipedia stories always serve as interesting pieces in my view.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    and also
    this line: "The Hare camp also claimed Schilling sent supporters to disrupt the meeting and called him a "Nazi", and implied that they were behind a piece of paper handed to Hare that read, "The White House is no longer white".[87]"

    the wording implies that Hare's campaign called Schilling a Nazi, when the site they linked to actually says that someone called Hare a Nazi at a town hall.

    giving right-wing loonies access to Wikipedia is like giving a box of matches to a small child.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah
    and you know what? I was banned for wikipedia for "vandalizing" the John Hostetler page. Basically a whole bunch of tea party nuts went in there and made him sound like the best thing since sliced bread, I remember it said something like " he is the frontrunner for the Republican nomination for Senate against Washington insider Dan Coats" and I had the nerve to change these things, not in a negative light, I just kept on reverting the edits and they all ganged up on me and before I knew it I was banned.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    there, I deleted his "criticism of Hare" section
    That is not a section that should be on your wikipedia page anyway; the point is talk about yourself.  I should save his page to make sure I get to delete it every time it pops up.

    [ Parent ]
    and I ended up editing the whole thing
    Didn't change much wording too lazy and I think it's better if it sounds written by a campaign, but I just got rid of the stupid shit that was unnecessary, illogical, or where he states his policy position on a statewide issue.

    [ Parent ]
    THANK YOU!!!!


    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    IL-Gov: Ras finds Brady surging a bit, up 7
    Brady not surging so much as
    ...Quinn simply dropped 3 points.  Brady only moved up 1. 17% still have no opinion of Brady.  He is +12 among those who do.  Quinn at -14 with very little undecided.

    These results could be about right.  Quinn recently got some negative publicity for large pay raises offered to his top staff.  (while the state is all but bankrupt.)

    Most people probably have very little idea who Brady is.

    Thanks for the link.


    [ Parent ]
    Charlie "Beber hair" Cook
    is out with some good predictions for us. Well fair anyway. He claims the Republicans will get a 32 and 42 net seat gain in the house, which sounds about right. He also predicts the R's get 5-7 Senate seats and get only 3-5 more Governors mansions.

    http://cookpolitical.com/

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


    Per the house
    that sounds ridiculously optimistic. I see Democrats picking up 4 seats, so that says a loss of 36 currently Democratic held seats. I just don't see, and I've run he numbers over and over. What I see is a 20 seat loss. I think it's ironic that Cook and Sabato and the others have waited until Democrats controlled Washington to start viewing things in terms of "macro" elections. But I happen to think they're all wrong and this year if more locally oriented than the past few cycles; and Democrats have big intrinsic advantages in the micro field, and are not that far behind in macro issues. 5-7 Senate seats is also ridiculous; I have Democrats down for a loss of just one, due to Conway, Crist and Fisher victories.  

    [ Parent ]
    Boy, with all due respect, ridiculously optimistic is how I describe YOUR predictions......
    Cook's sound right on the money on the House.  Every analyst I trust has the House a tossup, and I agree.

    It's realistic the Senate will be better than Cook says, but Cook's take is just as realistic.  We'll pick up no more than FL (w/Crist) and KY, and only in FL are we favored.  KY is a pure tossup in my mind.  You and too many SSPers put too much faith in Fisher's static polling vs. Portman and faultily overlooking Fisher's poor fundraising and other campaign management problems.  It will be shocking if Fisher beats Portman, especially since the DSCC won't be able to put that much into it.  And frankly I can easily see either Murray or Feingold getting knocked off.  Too many Democrats dismiss the possibility of us losing a lot more of these close ones that any of us want to believe.

    We're going to lose a lot of governorships, but we're going to pick up a bunch, too, so that's why the net change won't be too bad.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Predictions
    Anyone that predicts that the Democrats lose less than 3 or more than 8 Senate seats is out of it.  While I think the upper limit my go up, I really doubt the lower number goes any lower any time soon.

    In terms of the House, I think anything between 30 and 60 is reasonable at this point.  Less than 30 is ignoring the Democrats did really well over the last two cycles and there is bound to be some districts that will drift back to the right and the general state of affairs is not pleasant.  That being said, we have not reached the anything over 60 point just yet.  I still stand by my prediction that the Republicans will get a narrow 3 to 7 seat majority and the Democrats retain control of the Senate, but by 2 or 3 seats.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    [ Parent ]
    Personally
    I agree with Cook, the Republicans absolutely could get back the House. I am predicting it to be close though. If I had to take a guess I would say we lose between 35-45 and pick up three. As for the Senate I think we lose six (ND,DE,IN,CO,IL,WI or PA) and gain two (FL and at least one other of the tossups). That may be a bit optimistic but that is the way I honestly see it happening right now.        

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    Generally Agree on the Senate
    I think the Republicans win all the seats you mentioned with WI, WA and CA being the tossups.  Republicans will take at least 1 and maybe 2.  Democrats will gain FL.


    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Off topic
    Just curious, did anyone else get an email from John Raese for WV Senator today.  This is pretty much the only poltiical blog I've ever participated on (now that Campaign Diaries is dead) and I've never signed up for a Republican site in my whole life.  Curious how they got my email.  Had to unsubscribe from a site at: smartmail.smartmailer.com.

    Sometimes I don't like the Internet.



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