IL-10 (McLaughlin & Associates for Mark Kirk, 9/10-11, likely voters, 6/9 in parens):
Dan Seals (D): 29 (32)
Mark Kirk (R-inc): 51 (53)
Undecided: 21 (15)
(MoE: ±5.7%)
On its face, those are some un-sexy numbers for Dan Seals. However, the partisan breakdown of the poll is 35D-33R-29I. Labels and Lists pegs the district as 34D-21R-44I, and other internal Democratic numbers I've seen show Dems with a 7-point advantage here in terms of partisan identity. Also importantly, Kirk has saturated the airwaves (broadcast, cable, and radio) with $650K worth of ads in the last month. The DCCC has just started to enter the action here, sending out mailers and airing ads immediately after this poll was conducted. Seals himself has just gone back up on the airwaves:
NJ-03 (McLaughlin & Associates for Chris Myers, 9/8-9, likely voters):
John Adler (D): 29
Chris Myers (R): 33
Undecided: 37
Barack Obama (D): 42
John McCain (R): 45
(MoE: ±5.7%)
This is a D+3.3 district in South Jersey that Kerry lost by two points in 2004. I'd be surprised if Obama fared as bad as this poll suggests, but this is also a district that's not accustomed to electing Democrats to Congress. On the bright side, Adler maintains a ginormous financial edge over Myers, and the DCCC has already been making their presence felt in the district. Still, never take anything for granted.
PA-06 (Public Opinion Strategies for Jim Gerlach, 8/19-21, likely voters, 5/21 in parens):
Some Dude Bob Roggio (D): 28 (30)
Jim Gerlach (R-inc): 57 (56)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Yeah, I can't say I have much in the way of positive spin to offer here. Roggio's name ID has jumped a whopping 5 points since May -- all the way up to 10%! |
