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KY-06: Chandler Leads Barr by 14 Points

by: James L.

Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 10:26 PM EDT


Braun Research for cn|2 (7/26-27, likely voters, no trend lines):

Ben Chandler (D-inc): 46
Andy Barr (R): 32
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±4.4%)

This is the second poll we've seen of the race between Democrat Ben Chandler and Lexington attorney Andy Barr. Back in June, the Barr campaign released their own poll conducted by the Tarrance Group showing Chandler in the lead by 45-38. For their part, Chandler's campaign isn't releasing any of their own polling, but told Roll Call that they had a "strong double-digit lead" in June.

The warning sign for Chandler here is his standing under the 50% line given the fact that it's unlikely that the name "Andy Barr" is seared into the memory of many area residents. Chandler has a real race on his hands, but he should be able to retain his advantage if he stays on his toes. One telling statistic is that voters side with Chandler over Barr on the issue of government spending by a 45-41 margin -- that's not the greatest spread, but certainly an indication of some residual trust that Chandler's built up in a fairly conservative district.

James L. :: KY-06: Chandler Leads Barr by 14 Points
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This outfit's statewide kentucky poll had a sample 77% over 50
This sample is 52% over 50.   That isn't as crazy as 77%, but still very different than the 44% in 2008.  (Can't find exact comparisons for 2006 or 2004).

These pollsters love seniors I guess, but at least this poll is in the ballpark while the 77% KY Senate one was silly.


Barr's money
I just looked up his FEC reports and the dude is a fundraising machine! He's raised over 800k this cycle. He spent 450k though winning the primary against a few some dudes. Chandler has a big CoH advantage, 1.7 million to 360k. I'm surprised Chandler wasn't hurt by his Cap and Trade vote. I'm sure the new 527 former to oppose him and Conway will change that, along with the NRCC. Is that enough to kill his chances here?  

Is that enough to kill his chances here
Sadly for you: No.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
Andy Barr's wife
I attended a conference held by his wife in Kentucky. She paid for 50 college juniors from across the country to come spend a week in Lexington. Her fundraising apparatus was really good for this and I imagine that they know the right people in Lexington...

When I asked Barr why he was running for Congress, he said "to make a difference." Pretty specific..  


[ Parent ]
Not good but
it would take more than a national tide to knock Chandler down. The year is going to hurt him but he will have to run a horrible campaign as well if he is going to lose and Ben Chandler does not run bad campaigns. I know someone who worked on his 2003 Gubernatorial run and I have heard he is excellent on the stump and she described him of one of the best she worked with. If he would have ran for Senate I have little doubt it would be Lean D right now. The fact he was an early Obama supporter and voted for cap and trade in an R+13 coal friendly district will hurt him but I have no doubt he will survive. Barr is a good candidate but I still think Chandler wins, probably not by as much as he has in the past but still fairly comfortably.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

I don't know how coal friendly that district is
It is Lexington, Frankfort, and some farming areas.  There is a few coal areas in the south but that's it.

[ Parent ]
IDK
From what I can tell he did get a lot of negative press over the vote. I do not think it will help him to say the least. However I still think he wins.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
You know, I sometimes wonder how much votes like that really matter.
I remember Nate Silver talking about a poll in which something like half the country had no idea what cap-and-trade was.

And I'd wager that the vast majority of Americans don't even know the name of their congressional representative, let alone how he/she voted on one specific bill. Hell, now that I think about it, I don't actually know how my congressman voted on cap-and-trade.

I think we overestimate the relationship between how a congressman votes and his/her performance in the general election.

http://mypolitikal.com/


[ Parent ]
I have to agree
His campaign skills and his cash will help him a lot. As for him being a Obama supporter, that's all in the past. Plus I don't think the numbers are that bad. I like him to be above 50 but he has a 10 plus lead.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
Chandler Looks Good
If we go by the old rule of thumb that undecideds break 2:1 to the challenger, Chandler would still win 53-47. So I feel pretty good about his position.
Also, the Conway-Paul race is likely to be very close, and that will help Chandler because he will be facing less of a partisan wave.  

[ Parent ]
Meh
There are at least 50 seats more vulnerable than this one. Plus the 50% incumbent rule is old hat these days.


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