I am not

really sure why AR-02 is on the list. I would classify these with LA-03, and TN-06 because of our nominee. But maybe I'm wrong.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

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by: TheGradyDem @ Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 16:34:34 PM UTC

i'm curious about AR-02

especially since Joyce Elliot would be the first African American elected to Congress from Arkansas. I think this seat might be in play.

Again - gotta question why Emily's List played in AL-07 but hasn't touched this race

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by: politicalal @ Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 16:46:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Could be optics

Don't need the CBC kicking off. They don't have to follow through with actual ads.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 16:57:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree, they won't spend in all of these, and AR-02 is one where I bet they don't. (nm)

nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 17:22:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I Think You Are Wrong

I realize a lot of Democrats went "oh no" when she won, but she'll mobilize other Democrats, the district is much more promising demographically than TN-06, and remember it's not just the Democratic nominee that matters, it's the Republican nominee too. And surely some good ads can tear that guy to shreds.

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by: armand @ Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 17:11:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tim Sahd's National Journal House race rankings say GOP takeover virtually certain......

Sahd at NJ has this as no. 6 on likely to flip parties, and his blurb on it reads:

Republicans privately say this race is nearly a "done deal," and with polls and fundraising reports showing big advantages for ex-U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin (R), those strategists may be on to something.

Everything else I've read on this one just confirms that Elliott is flailing badly.  She has no coherent message, and there's no sign of any attempt to define Griffin.

I wrote this off when Elliott won the runoff.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 17:22:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sorry Amand, I have to disagree with you as well

Your evidence is all intuitive and anectodal, and the hard evidence that exists (i.e. that this district went for McCain, that Griffin is beating her in fundraising) indicates this is a lost cause.

I don't want Dems spending on a race like this when there are winnable races elsewhere.  

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by: markhanna @ Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 17:31:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Right

I do not think Wills would have done much better actually, but with the weak fundraising added on, it's not looking like Elliott has much of a chance unfortunately. For the Democrats in Arkansas, it might be better to throw most of their eggs in the Causey basket, for which we can at least be thankful that we got Causey and not the Republican-sounding Democrat.

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by: Progressive America @ Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 18:00:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree on AR-1

AR-1 is definitely winnable. Causey is the type of conservative Democrat who can sell himself to the rural Democrats who have abandoned the national Democratic Party for the most part, but continue to vote for conservative "Arkansas Democrats" on the local level.  

Democrat: TN-8

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by: wtndem @ Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 18:11:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And speaking of this...

if Blanche Lincoln is to make a modest comeback (lose by 5-10 instead of 15-20), this is the district where she will come closest or maybe even win narrowly.

That, along with the governor's coattails make this definitely winnable  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

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by: TheGradyDem @ Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 19:27:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Problem

is Beebe's trend line is not looking good right now. Keet is closing the gap with him even though Beebe is pretty damn popular.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

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by: ehstronghold @ Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 19:32:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Beebe will be fine on election day

The electorate views Beebe as a "Arkansas Democrat", so its hard to see on election day him not cleaning up statewide by a good margin. AR-1 is a district that will come out and support Beebe, that will help Causey, as folks will be able to justify the ticket split against the "Washington Democrat" Lincoln while voting for the good "Arkansas Democrats" Beebe and Causey.

Democrat: TN-8

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by: wtndem @ Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 20:08:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree

AR-2 is # 5 on my list of seats likely to flip.  It's a goner.

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by: Paleo @ Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 19:14:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I need to start a list

Id count it pretty much right up there as well

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by: Andrew @ Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 22:46:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This just shows the foolishness of the angst on this site after the first batch was released......

Too many people were hand-wringing, "why not this one?  Why not that one?"

The omissions don't mean anything, these are decided and released in waves for media coverage effect.

A bunch of the ones that people thought should be on here before, are on here now.

Oh, and I'm plenty happy to see ad time reserved for a half-dozen pickup opportunities.  I feel bad for John Callahan that he's in the wrong cycle when he could've won in 2006 or 2008, but the other 5 are legit in my mind.

And one more thing:  the National Journal House race rankings by Tim Sahd, with a Top 40 in order of likely to flip parties, includes 5 Dem pickup opportunities, with one surprise:  instead of FL-25 or PA-15, they have Dan Lungren in CA-03 at no. 39.  Ami Bera, an Indian-American doctor, is the well-funded challenger there.  The other 4 Dem pickup opportunities are the same 4 we all know:  LA-02; DE-AL; HI-01; and IL-10.  Happily all 4 of those are in the top 18.  And to my mild surprise, HI-01 is no. 13, which is pretty high considering the amount of angst some SSPers have had about our chances of unseating Djou.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 17:29:28 PM UTC

Another Pennsylvania possibility and Bera

In PA-06, Trivedi will have a decent shot at defeating Gerlach. Unfortunately, like with PA-15, we probably had a better chance winning the district in 2008 if the better candidate had run then.

I also feel that Bera has an outstanding opportunity in CA-03, as many of the California Republicans showed strong weaknesses in 2008 despite campaigning against underfunded Democrats.

In both of these districts this time, we have better candidates facing weak incumbents, although in the tougher 2010 climate.

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by: Progressive America @ Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 18:08:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think the Republican incumbent's standing matters as much as the Democrat's strength, and I think that's why...

...CA-03 is on the NJ rankings, but PA-06 and PA-15 are not.

Gerlach and Dent both are used to running in blue-tilted seats and know exactly what to do, and both execute their game plans well.

But Lungren isn't used to being vulnerable.  He returned to public office running in CA-03 as a "safe" seat, only to see the demographics and politics of his district slowly drift left.  He might not have developed a game plan for how to deal with that.  And now he has what on paper is the strongest opponent he's ever faced.

I love Trivedi after what I saw of him in person the past weekend at the Indian-American Leadership Initiative conference, but man I wish we had him running in 2008.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 18:25:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

PA-6 or PA-15

Which one do you think would be more likely to flip?  I think the Republicans will hold both of them, but PA-6 is less likely to flip in my book because Gerlach has a larger COH advantage than Dent and Gerlach is more experience than Dent at running in close races.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

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by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 18:55:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Neither

If either flip, barring a scandal, the national environment has gotten good enough for the Dems that their losses will be kept to fewer than 20 seats in the House, and 0-2 in the Senate.

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by: NewMex9999 @ Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 18:58:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree GOP will hold both, but Dem odds are better in PA-15......

Callahan is a proven vote-getter in a population center in the district and is much more competitive financially.  And as you said, Gerlach is used to winning tight ones more than Dent.

No question Callahan has better odds.

But yeah, in this environment, both are likely GOP holds.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 19:53:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Have you seen the Dent/Gerlach ads?

They actually had some joint ads running back in early summer.  I had never seen joint ads amongst congressmen before so I found it fascinating they were having joint TV ads in Philadelphia...and it was post-primary.

I think if they advertise together they will pretty much be running together, so I can't foresee a scenario where one wins and the other doesn't.

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by: rdw72777 @ Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 21:07:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Ads

I saw those ads.  Very interesting to say the least.  Actually it might be something candidates consider in the Philly suburbs on both sides.  Seeing the districts are a tangled mess, it could not hurt to run joint ads.  Gerlach and Dent should lend some lovin to Meehan and Fitzpatrick and Murphy and Schwartz should lend some lovin to Lentz, Trivedi and Callahan.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

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by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 21:27:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I thought it was brilliant

The candidates need to trust each other for sure, but I've never even heard a rumor of a scandal with Dent/Gerlach so I think they are okay there.

I don't know that it plays well for non-incumbents though.  For newcomers, they really do need to introduce themselves to the voters, and certainly a congressperson from a enighboring district carries less mojo than say a sitting Senator, Guv or even presidential endorsement ad.  I don't think a Gerlach Meehan ad helps Meehan one bit, nor does a Schwartz Lentz ad help Lentz (unless people really like candidates whose last names end with "tz" LOL).

I seriously don't know why we havent seen this before.  Admittedly the ads were bland but the ad served to promote themselves well.

I wonder if this sort of thing plays well in other cities (not NYC/LA as there's no hope of making that affordable), but maybe Chicago, Houston, and some other very dense areas where there are A LOT of congresspersons in a single media marker.

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by: rdw72777 @ Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 21:40:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

PA-6

Yeah, I don't know why that is on the list.  They have a better shot at winning that than AR-2.

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by: Paleo @ Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 19:13:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]