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DCCC Reserves Ad Time in 41 Districts

by: James L.

Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 9:31 AM EDT


As you're probably now aware, the DCCC has reserved $28 million worth of ad time to help shore up the re-election campaigns of 40 incumbents (and one open seat campaign) this fall. While we don't know how much money will be spent everywhere, the Hotline has a partial list of dollar figures for a few select districts. Let's look at the fab forty-one in chart form (click on the table headers to sort):

District Incumbent 2008
Margin
Obama
%ge
AL-02 Bright 0.6% 36%
AZ-01 Kirkpatrick 16% 44%
AZ-05 Mitchell 10% 47%
AZ-08 Giffords 12% 46%
CA-11 McNerney 10% 54%
CO-04 Markey 12% 49%
FL-02 Boyd 24% 45%
FL-24 Kosmas 16% 49%
IA-03 Boswell 14% 54%
ID-01 Minnick 1% 36%
IL-11 Halvorson 24% 53%
IL-14 Foster 15% 55%
IN-02 Donnelly 37% 54%
IN-09 Hill 19% 49%
KS-03 OPEN 17% 51%
MI-07 Schauer 2% 52%
MO-04 Skelton 32% 38%
MS-01 Childers 11% 38%
NC-08 Kissell 11% 53%
ND-AL Pomeroy 24% 45%
NM-02 Teague 12% 49%
NV-03 Titus 5% 55%
NY-23 Owens 2%† 52%
NY-24 Arcuri 4% 51%
OH-01 Driehaus 5% 55%
OH-13 Sutton 29% 57%
OH-15 Kilroy 0.7% 54%
OH-16 Boccieri 11% 48%
OH-18 Space 20% 45%
PA-03 Dahlkemper 2% 49%
PA-10 Carney 12% 45%
PA-11 Kanjorski 3% 57%
PA-12 Critz 8%† 49%
SC-05 Spratt 25% 46%
SD-AL Herseth 35% 45%
TX-17 Edwards 7% 32%
TX-23 Rodriguez 14% 51%
VA-02 Nye 5% 51%
VA-05 Perriello 0.2% 48%
VA-11 Connolly 12% 57%
WI-08 Kagen 8% 54%

(†Special election margins)

Note that the DCCC does not necessarily need to use these reservations. (For example, the DCCC reserved $2.1 million in 2008 to beat up the Republican nominee in NY-13's open seat race, but ultimately didn't spend a dime against Bob "The Wiener King of Manhattan" Straniere.) Also note that the DCCC has yet to reserve time in any open seats (aside from Dennis Moore's) or Republican-held districts.

The scary thing is that I can think of a few dozen more Democratic incumbents whom the DCCC might feel compelled to drop some significant coin on defending.

James L. :: DCCC Reserves Ad Time in 41 Districts
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SUSA had scary numbers for Heinrich
this morning, for example.  

Omissions
First, there are no open seats except KS-03, where the wife of the incumbent is running, so this seems to be all about incumbent protection.

Second, ALL of these are Leans D or worse on SSP House ratings, so good job SSP picking the tough races!

A. The "WTF" Candidates.

1. MD-01 - Kratovil - WTF?  His internal has him up five so we can't be throwing him overboard can we?  Is he doing a Nancy Boyda and declining help?  Harris has $$$ so he needs it.

2. NH-01 - Shea-Porter - Another WTF.  Polls show a tight race and she desperately needs $$$.  Is DCCC sending a "no bailouts" message to poor fundraisers?

3. FL-19 - Hall - Another poor fundraiser, so could be.

B. Candidates who may be in good shape poll-wise.

4. GA-08 - Marshall - Dems may not be too worried about this one.  Strong conservative profile for Marshall.

5. KY-06 - Chandler - Ditto.

6. MN-01 - Walz - Walz won by 30 last time, so maybe he's OK.

7. NM-01 - Heinrich - If Survey USA is right, he needs the help.  But internal has him up double digits.

8. NY-20 - Murphy - Gibson raised lots of $$$ last quarter, but Dems may feel OK here.

9. PA-04 - Altmire - Rothfus at big CoH disadvantage.  Altmire may be OK.

10. PA-08 - Murphy - Fitzpatrick fundraising big.  Surprised no help for Murphy.  Could be a good sign.

11. TN-04 - Davis - March Republican internal had Davis up 11, and Republican candidates are nobodies.

C. Candidates who may not need the money

12. CT-04 - Himes - Doesn't need it.

13. FL-08 - Grayson - Doesn't need it.

14. FL-22 - Klein - With $4MM+ raised between the candidates, DCCC help would be a drop in the bucket.

15. NJ-03 - Adler - Doesn't need it

16. NY-01 - Bishop - Much like FL-22.  Huge money among the candidates renders DCCC a little superfluous.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


PA-4 and PA-8
PA-4 - Altmire has a huge COH advantage and probably strong in general since he has really been a blue dog.

PA-8 - Fitzpatrick has done pretty well fundraising, but Murphy has a COH advantage.  Of all the vulnerable Dems in Pennsylvania, he is the best fundraiser.  This race really bugs me because of the total lack of polling of it.  Someone seriously needs to poll it so we have even a remote clue what is happening there.  Neither side has even released an internal poll.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


[ Parent ]
Yeah would love to see PA-08 polling.
My gut says Fitzpatrick has a good chance, but it's interesting that the DCCC is not protecting Murphy.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
PA-8
Fitzpatrick lost this seat by a little over 1000 votes in 2006, which was the worst environment for Republicans in Pennsylvania in a generation.  

Murphy has benefitted from top of the ticket strength in 2006 and 2008 with Rendell and Obama.  Corbett won the district in 2008 and probably do better since the local party's favorite, County Commissioner Jim Cawley is on the ticket too.  The Democratic Gov/Lt.Gov duo are not the types that will drive SEPA Dems to the polls either.  Sestak, if he wins, will not win in a blowout.  Might help Murphy, but who knows seeing Toomey is from the Lehigh Valley, which the northern part of Bucks County is more aligned with.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


[ Parent ]
I love that
Stephene Moore is basically considered an incumbent at this point and is being defended as such. Which means the DCCC, for one, thinks we can definitely win KS-03. That makes two of us, I guess. And to those who have Lean-R on this one, no. Just, no. This seat basically defines tossup this cycle. If we lose a wealthy, moderate suburban district this year, we're screwed. If we hold it, I bet our losses will be more limited than everyone suspects.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

Bah, why didnt Dennis just run again!
Granted, maybe having someone with the name rec but not with Inc. next to their name will be better for us

[ Parent ]

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