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SSP Daily Digest: 7/28 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 8:04 AM EDT


  • CT-Sen: I thought it was pretty weird that alleged non-candidate Rob Simmons was going to participate in a GOP debate last night. Well, he un-weirded things (I guess) by declaring at this debate that he is "running for the United States Senate." We'll see if it sticks. The primary, by the way, is August 10th.
  • KS-Sen: Not something you see every day: Rep. Jerry Moran's former campaign manager, who claims he was pushed out in April, has endorsed rival Rep. Todd Tiahrt. Paul Moore said he thinks Moran, who has led in every single public poll, is not "instinctively conservative."
  • NC-Sen: A new Civitas poll has Richard Burr leading Elaine Marshall 44-37. It's been a really long time since Civitas looked at this race; in December of last year, they found Burr up 40-32.
  • WA-Sen: Obama alert! The POTUS will headline a fundraiser for Sen. Patty Murray on August 17th in Seattle.
  • FL-Gov: McLaughlin & Associates supposedly has yet another poll out, but not for their client Bill McCollum. Apparently, they did double duty for the Florida Medical Association, and - surprise - found Rick Scott leading McCollum 37-33. This seems like a pretty colossal waste of money, since McCollum's internal - released just the other day - had him down 37-31.
  • Meanwhile, McCollum had to deal with a small brush fire: former Florida House Speaker Alan Bense held a private meeting with Rick Scott over the weekend. The problem is that Bense is supposed to be a McCollum supporter - something he re-iterated after his soiree, saying he only got together with Scott to be polite. Bense is also the chairman-elect of the Florida Chamber of Commerce, and his group is expected to get behind Billy Mac. And in case anyone still cares what unlovable loser Gary Bauer thinks, he endorsed McCollum.

  • KS-Gov: Dem state Sen. Tom Holland raised $283K from Jan. 1 to July 22nd and has $103K on hand. His Republican opponent, Sen. Sam Brownback, took in $519K and has $1.2 million in the bank. Note, though, that Holland's fundraising mostly took place after the legislative session ended in June (there are strict regulations on fundraising while the lege is in operation), while Brownback was free to raise from all sources throughout the reporting period. Brownback's been spending his time well, mind you: He just introduced legislation which would ban the creation of "part-human, part-animal creatures." Sadly, this would mean no manticores, minotaurs, or mermaids. And I was really looking forward to embracing our brave new Greek mythology future.
  • MN-Gov: Glad to see that Citizens United is proving to be a two-edged sword. Target has donated $150,000 to a right-wing group called MN Forward, which is running TV ads on behalf of extremist Republican nominee Tom Emmer. Gay groups in particular are incensed, since Target had been known as a gay-friendly employer, even going so far as to support the Twin Cities Gay Pride Festival. And speaking for myself, Target can get fucked - as can Best Buy and any other corporation which uses corporate money to help elect Republicans. Not shopping at either location anymore, that's for sure.
  • NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo is launching his first TV ad of the cycle, a spot about property taxes. Of course, NWOTSOTB, or whether it's cable or broadcast, or even where it's airing. Sigh.
  • OH-Gov: Obama alert 2! The day after the POTUS appears in WA (see bullet above), he'll be doing a fundraiser for Ted Strickland in Columbus.
  • OR-Gov: We haven't done writeups of our most recent batch of race ratings yet, but Carla Axtman of Blue Oregon has a nice writeup of an interview she did with Crisitunity at Netroots Nation, where he explains our decision to move OR-Gov from Likely D to Tossup.
  • RI-Gov: Linc Chafee is doing his best to out-do Martha Coakley when it comes to alienating Red Sox Nation (a broad constituency throughout New England). While criticizing state loan guarantees to a video game company owned by Schilling, he also decided to question whether Schilling's famous "bloody sock" game was legit. Already Chafee's tried to walk back the remark - but there are no do-overs in baseball. Or politics.
  • GA-02: Dem Rep. Sanford Bishop, in a competitive race with Republican Mike Keown (who oh-so-narrowly outraised the incumbent last quarter), formally kicked off his campaign yesterday with a newly-famous Georgian at his side: Shirley Sherrod, with whom you are most certainly familiar by now. Even though this district is almost 48% black, it's also extremely competitive politically, going 54% for Obama and 50% for Kerry.
  • KS-01: SurveyUSA has one final look at the open-seat GOP primary in KS-01, finding a three-way tie between state Sen. Jim Barnett, realtor Tracey Mann, and state Sen. Tim Huelskamp. All pull 24%. Last time, it was 23-20-18.
  • MA-09: Bubba alert! Bill Clinton is doing a fundraiser and rally this Thursday for conservadem and anti-healthcare reform asshole Stephen Lynch. Lynch faces a primary from Mac D'Alessandro and has a monster cash advantage ($1.3 million to just $72K), so this surely seems like overkill to me - but of course, the Big Dog loves to pay back favors, and Lynch was (you guessed it) a Hillary supporter in 2008.
  • NY-13: Rep. Mike McMahon, seeking to avoid a primary on the Independence Party line, is challenging the petitions of third-party irritant John Tabacco. Tabacco needs only 497 valid signatures, but New York has absurdly stringent rules which make it very easy to knock "bad" sigs out. Therefore, the common rule of thumb is that you need to submit at least twice as many petitions as the law requires, and Tabacco only provided 678. Therefore, I'm going to guess that McMahon - who is highly motivated here - will succeed in his challenges. Tabacco has some more problems to worry about, though - after giving a loan to the wife of the chair of the state Independence Party last year, he suddenly got their ballot line in a city council race (funnily enough, for the seat vacated by McMahon).
  • NY-15: House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer is dipping a toe into new waters, suggesting that resignation is an option for Charlie Rangel. So is fighting the charges, Hoyer says, but a ringing endorsement of the embattled former Ways and Means chair this is not. Meanwhile, Walt Minnick isn't playing footsie, becoming the second Dem (after OH-13's Betty Sutton) to call on Rangel to quit the House.
  • Rangel is still in talks with the ethics committee to try to reach some sort of plea bargain, but it seems that he's unwilling to cop to a sufficiently broad array of violations to satisfy the committee members. If Rangel can't come to terms, he'd face a "public hearing" (essentially a trial). As the New York Times points out, the last time this happened was in 2002, when Jim Traficant was expelled from the House.

  • PA-07: Teabagger Jim Schneller, hoping to appear on the ballot as an independent, says he's gathered 5,200 signatures so far - a thousand more than the 4,200 he needs to submit by August 2nd. It remains to be seen if Republican Pat Meehan will try to challenge Schneller's bid.
  • TN-03: Politico has a piece documenting the wingnut-on-wingnut violence stemming from the fight to replace outgoing Rep. Zach Wamp in this dark-red seat. The battle is between attorney Chuck Fleischmann and former state GOP chair Robin Smith.
  • Fundraising: A rare day: two Steny Hoyer mentions in one digest. The House Majority Leader is parachuting into a whole host of districts, doing events for Dems such as Mark Critz, Chris Carney, Tim Bishop, Denny Heck, and the undeserving Larry Kissell. Hoyer, like Nancy Pelosi, got where he is because lots and lots of people owe him - and will continue to owe him. Let this be a lesson to aspiring progressive leaders in Congress.
  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 7/28 (Morning Edition)
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    Boycott
    I surely hope someone is planning a website that lists all the companies giving to right wing causes.  This is fundamentally different from company execs or PACs giving since it this case a portion of everything you purchase is going directly to these conservative groups.  I've always shopped at Target a lot, but totally agree that I won't anymore.  It's going to be hard for individuals to know which companies are involved.  If people on both the right and the left boycott companies who give to their political opponents, it would really cut Citizens United off at the knees.

    On another topic, Crisitunity is a guy?  Wow!  I always thought it was a woman named Crissie.  Of course, for a long time I thought it was a devout Christian using "Christ Unity" as a screen name before I realized I was missreading the name.  Always a problem when words are run together!  
    :-)


    I move that
    "Target can get fucked" become the official slogan of Swing State Project.  In fact, it should be featured at the top of the home page: "Swing State Project" and then in slightly smaller letters right below "Target can get fucked."  

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    It will be interested to see if ....
    .... Emmer ends up running agaisnt Mark Dayton.  If Target is giving money to Emmer, given that Dayton's family, well, you know, started the company!


    [ Parent ]
    I was just going to make note of that
    It is odd to see Target dumping money, considering that yeah, the Dayton-Hudson company was the predecessor of Target and I believe Mark Dayton remains a major stockholder.

    Next thing you know Kohl's will be running ads against Herb Kohl.


    [ Parent ]
    I thought Target BOUGHT Dayton? I'm pretty sure they co-existed separately...
    ...as retail chains in my youth.

    There was always a Target in Ames, Iowa, where I was born and lived for 18 of my first 22 years from 1968 to 1990.  And I remember when on family vacations seeing Dayton stores in cities elsewhere in America.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    They did coexist seperately but...
    Target was actually started by Dayton's, as a discount outlet, to compete with K-Mart and the now deceased Kresge's.

    [ Parent ]
    Kresge's isn't dead
       it is K-Mart...

    52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

    [ Parent ]
    Didn't
    K-Mart sell out to Sears?  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    No.
    Kmart bought Sears, and then took the Sears name.

    [ Parent ]
    There are still K-Marts around
    There is one particularly odious one that is built with Nicollet Ave going directly through it, but obviously not anymore because there is a building there.  Nicollet is in the top three Id say of major roads in Minneapolis, and that piece of shit makes all future LRT and street-car operations a bitch to plan.

    Without Target, and Wal-Mart, I can only go to that K-Mart, and it is literally the biggest thorn in the city's side for urban planning.  Cub has pretty much everything I need though.


    [ Parent ]
    Right
    But KMart and Sears stores are both owned by Sears Holdings Corporation.

    [ Parent ]
    Now I understand your name!
    Here is the basic corporate history of Target. (The dates are from memory, but I have the overall story right.)

    * Early 1900s: Dayton's Department Store founded.
    * Early 1960s: Dayton's opens Target and B. Dalton's Books. ("Dalton" is one letter off from "Dayton.")
    * Late 1960s: Dayton's merges with Hudson's Department Stores in Detroit; parent company changes its name to Dayton-Hudson.
    * 1970s: D-H buys Mervyn's Department Stores in Northern California, a lower-end chain.
    * 1980s: D-H sells B. Dalton to Waldenbooks.
    * 1990s: D-H buys Marshall Fields in Chicago.
    * Early 2000s: D-H changes the corporate name to Target Corporation, and changes the name of all Dayton's and Hudson's stores to Marshall Fields.
    * Mid 2000s: Target Corp. sells Field's to May Dept Stores (St. Louis), and sells Mervyn's to investment bankers.
    * Late 2000s: Federated Dept Stores (Cincinnati) buys May, and changes the name of Field's stores to Macy's.


    [ Parent ]
    So that means
    Target is all what is left of the Dayton family's business.  They're real fucking bastards.

    [ Parent ]
    So you are going to shop at Wal-Mart???
    I really do not care who gives to who.  Maybe I am so cynical that I could give a rats ass, but I am not the boycotting type.  I look at my bottom line and see what store provides the products I want and the best prices.  That means if I want a new Banana Republic dress shirt I am not going to not buy it simply because their deceased founder gave heavily to Republican causes.  That does not mean I am not going to buy a MacBook Pro next time I buy a computer because Al Gore's connection to the company.  Maybe I am a valueless worshiper of the all mighty bottom line in the end, but I am just not the type to care about what they do with it.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Alright
    This tangent is a bit of a derail... I think we can close the book on boycott discussions right now.

    [ Parent ]
    sorry, James
    I missed your note while writing mine.

    [ Parent ]
    To me, the choice between Wal-mart and Target is (now) closer to a wash
    Wal-mart has done a number of things to improve its progressive credentials. Given a choice, I'd still shop at Target over Wal-mart, based on the way they treat their employees and their other corporate giving.

    Nevertheless, I feel fortunate that I can do most of our shopping at Costco and Trader Joes (and yes, I do drink two buck chuck).

    Despite Target's contributions to Emmer, I'm having trouble relating this thread to election analysis. If anyone can tell me how organizing/advocating a boycott of Target relates to such analysis, I'm all ears.  


    [ Parent ]
    Maybe instead
    of having "Target Can Get Fucked" in the subhead of our banner, we should just have "Crisitunity is a guy, is not an ardent Christian, and is not currently a Charlie Crist Supporter; it's a freakin' Simpsons reference, people."

    [ Parent ]
    RI-Gov: Srsly, Chafee?
    I'm not crazy enough about sports to change my vote over that, but come on dude...Curt Schilling may be a right-wing wacko in terms of politics, but when it comes to sports, he's untouchable. (On the other hand, I think many if not most Hispanics in RI are Yankees fans, so maybe there's one demographic he helped himself with, lol.)

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    That was moronically stupid
    Unless you're posing for photos, or participating in a victory celebration -- or in some other way trying to wrap yourself in the success of a local sports team or athlete, just keep your mouth shut about it.

    [ Parent ]
    2nd act for IA-03 Repub Dave Funk
    He finished third in the GOP primary to face Leonard Boswell but carried a bunch of precincts in eastern Polk County. Now he is the Republican candidate for Polk County supervisor, and if he wins he would give the GOP control of Iowa's largest county government for the first time in six decades. I don't think Funk will beat the Democratic incumbent, though.

    and speaking of IA-03
    The DCCC and Leonard Boswell's campaign slammed Brad Zaun yesterday for voting against flood recovery spending as a state senator and suggesting at a public forum earlier this year, "We lost [personal responsibility] as a country, we expect when there's a flood or something that's going on, the government to come in and help us."

    As of Monday 44 Iowa counties were under disaster declarations because of recent flooding.  


    Flood Insurance
    I really have no sympathy for someone who lives in an area prone to flooding and does not own flood insurance.  Maybe I am just that heartless of a bastard.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Derail
    And inappropriate.

    Note: It's troubling that I've had to warn you twice in one thread. We've made it clear that while we're okay with Republican commenters here, you're going to have to do a better job keeping your opinions to yourself.


    [ Parent ]
    hard to get flood insurance
    A lot of insurers don't want to sell it, and not all counties in flood-prone areas participate in federal flood insurance program.

    [ Parent ]
    Some people
    Just simply can't afford it.  

    [ Parent ]
    Basic Coverage is not that expensive
    http://www.floodsmart.gov/floo...

    As little as $119 a year.


    [ Parent ]
    Don't the mortgage companies require it?


    [ Parent ]
    Don't
    know. You maybe talking about house insurance, which carries the common misconception that it covers your house against floods when it doesn't.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    Maybe
    IDK if they do in Iowa, but I know they do in LA. I guess its the same all over.  

    [ Parent ]
    CT-Sen
    Is Rob Simmons "special" or something?  I was under the impression he was a formidable opponent (and his electoral track record would bear that out), but this is strictly amateur hour.

    YYeeaahh...
    I have no idea what Simmons is doing here. He ran a campaign, then stopped it when McMahon won the convention. Then he ran the ads, but said afterwords that he's not a candidate, he just wanted to run a "public service announcement." Now, he's apparently in again.

    I think Simmons knows he's beat, but he likes the attention.

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)


    [ Parent ]
    uhm
    A rare day: two Steny Hoyer mentions in one digest. The House Majority Leader is parachuting into a whole host of districts, doing events for Dems such as Mark Critz, Chris Carney, Tim Bishop, Denny Heck

    That should be Dina Titus, if i'm not mistaken :)

    16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.


    Oh wait
    i misread, her opponent is Joe Heck, my apologies  

    16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

    [ Parent ]
    Yup, Denny Heck is running to succeed Brian Baird. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    The Hill released the Top 50 most beautiful people on Capitol Hill
    http://politicalticker.blogs.c...

    6 Lawmakers made the list with Senator Gillibrand topping them all at #3! :D

    Also on the list are (in descending order): Rep. Judy Chu, Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., Sen. Scott Brown (surprise, surprise), Rep. Duncan Hunger, and Rep. Anna Eshoo.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    A shame they didn't include Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-CA)
    She beats Eshoo handily, IMO.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    Um, what?
    I call shenanigans. Who the hell put this list together, Stevie Wonder*? Where is Martin Heinrich? That man is hotdamn in a can, as the kids say. Where's Aaron Schock? I hate that little jerk, but I probably would like to hatef**k him, too. Or does the Hill do some weird thing where they never use the same person twice?

    And seriously, Anna Eshoo? Look, she's a great Congresslady, but the woman is 67 years old. Granted, she looks fantastic for her age, but seriously. Seriously.

    *yeah, I am awful. I am an awful, awful person to do the blind guy joke.  

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


    [ Parent ]
    You may want to check out last night's derail extrordinaire
    It's over in the NM-01 comments section, and about a half dozen of us broke down the hottest members of Congress. James referred to it as "SSP Cosmo."

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Isn't Gillibrand kind of, uh, a big gal?


    [ Parent ]
    She used to be
    Right after she had a baby. She's lost 40 lbs though. She looked great when she was big too. Look at these before and after pics: http://www.celebritydietdoctor...
    She was really big in the 1st pic. That might have been right after she had the baby.  

    [ Parent ]
    Nice!
    I stand corrected.

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah
    I have to say, she has gotten A LOT hotter since she joined the Senate....ideologically and physically.

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

    [ Parent ]
    Crazy happenings in FL-25
    It seems that nasty mailers against Joe Garcia have been traced to Republican groups pretending to be Democrats. At the same time, these said groups also have questionable finances. From what I've seen in the Herald for the past few months, it seems that Rivera is receiving a significant amount of negative media coverage. I think this race will be one of our pickups in November.

    http://www.miamiherald.com/201...


    This is my under-the-radar upset special and I've been moving it up the list in my mind, maybe ahead of...
    ...IL-10.  I've always felt queasy about Dan Seals being given a 3rd crack at it when he didn't get it done last time, but I realize Dold is pretty conservative and Seals isn't disliked, so he's still got a better shot than against Kirk who from what I've read really did run a great campaign in 2008.

    But FL-25 is intriguing to me, and unless I'm missing something I'm thinking this is a better opportunity than the pundits recognize.  Rivera has gotten bad publicity several times already this cycle, and Garcia acquitted himself well in losing a tough seat narrowly to longtime incumbent MDB in 2008.

    Honestly, I feel good enough about this race that even in this environment, I won't be surprised if we pick up only 3 seats and FL-25 is one of them, along with DE-AL and LA-02.  I won't be shocked if Garcia wins and Seals and Hanabusa both lose.  Of course, I'm hoping for all 5, and I think that's also very realistic.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, I've been thinking this might be a good opportunity for awhile now
    I actually had it ahead of IL-10, though I still think it might be behind the Hawaii seat.  

    [ Parent ]
    IL-Sen
    Alexi up 43-41. Y'all know where Rasmussen lives!

    I was going to link to them to celebrate this moment...
    But then I realized they actually had him up last month as well (albeit by a point).

    It might just be my imagination, but Rasmussen seems to be more mainstream in its polling results these days.  


    [ Parent ]
    OR-Gov: Kitzhaber = Jerry Brown or Martha Coakley?
    From the linked interview:

    Crisitunity went on to say that they're "alarmed" by chatter they're hearing that Kitzhaber seems to be coasting on his well-earned reputation. They believe Kitz may also be viewing the race through an "outdated prism of bipartisanship and amicable problem-solving". Swing State is concerned that the former Governor is waiting for the inevitable need to throw some punches and define Dudley instead of trying to somehow "transcend politicking as usual."

    The rest of the article suggests Brown, but I think the lack of response I'm hearing from Kitz suggests Coakley. There are supposed to be some Kitzhaber house parties this weekend, but I still haven't heard a da*n thing.

    I don't think Kitzhaber has been anywhere since the July 4th parades -- and yes, one opening of a campaign office in Eugene. (Details from the "campaign updates" link at www.johnkitzhaber.com )


    Hope As A Plan
    I really think that Kitzhaber expected the economy to improve at the same rate it was in late winter, early spring. And he would just ride that in a naturally blue state. He seems to have been caught flat-footed by the slowdown. Also, I think his "truth teller" qualities, even more than his transcending politics stuff, has hurt him with progressives.

    [ Parent ]
    CA-Gov: Brown up 6
    http://www.publicpolicypolling...

    I have to wonder if Ahnold's dreadful favorables are taking a toll on eMeg.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    NH-Sen: Ayotte up 33 over Binnie
    Yup, and the poll and PPP's own blog post suggest the Palin endorsement did NOT matter......
    Ayotte's numbers are only slightly improved from PPP's previous NH Senate primary poll, which can be statistical noise or just the result of voters naturally coalescing around a frontrunner.

    And PPP's own blog narrative suggests the Palin endorsement's effect is questionable.

    So this undermines, I think, the argument that Palin's endorsement has mattered at all, including in the general election.  Looks to me more like Ayotte bleeding a little just from getting attacked the most.

    I hope Hodes runs a good campaign going forward, because he still has a real shot at this.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Still not convinced
    She has gone from +24 to +33 so that suggests movement from somewhere. And her cratering with moderates has been caused by something.

    [ Parent ]
    Although
    Palin only gets 3% of the vote in a presidential primary in New Hampshire. Romney is in first with Gingrich in second, RON PAUL in third,Huckabee in fourth and Palin coming in second to last getting only three percent of the vote. She only did better than Pawlenty and no one knows who he is. So maybe her endorsement does not mean something as not a lot of Republicans or anyone for that matter likes her much.  

    http://www.publicpolicypolling...

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


    [ Parent ]
    I think we've seen in other polling
    That the Republican base loves her but doesn't necessarily want her to be president.

    [ Parent ]
    hahahahaha
    I hate Pawlenty.  He's totally worthless.  I think if he runs against Franken in 2014, he's going to knocked HEAVILY for running for President while the state was enduring an economic disaster.  It's an issue that'll connect with the good governance in Minnesotans.

    [ Parent ]
    Terrific
    Binnie is the enemy here.

    [ Parent ]
    TX-Gov: Chris Cillizza's updated race ratings call this a TOSS-UP!!!......
    I've grown this year to give more respect to political reporters' commentaries on horseraces, as I've grown to realize they really do get fed a lot of insider information we don't see in public.

    Along those lines, Cillizza posted his Senate and gubernatorial race ratings changes today on The Fix, and while most of them are either no surprise or overdue, the big eye-popper was his movement of TX-Gov to "tossup" status from lean Republican.

    If Bill White really can pull this off, it will be huge.  I can see it happening.  While I'm a realist and I realize this is an anti-Democratic environment rather than an anti-incumbent environment, there are exceptions, and most of those exceptions involve states with longtime Repubilcan Governors whose approval ratings have gone South with the economy and maybe other factors.  So it will be no surprise at this stage if White wins, if for no other reason than Perry has worn out his welcome and too many Texans are sick of him, their strong distaste of Democrats this year notwithstanding.

    If Strickland can survive in Ohio, Sink can pull it off in Florida, and White wins in Texas, we have some real redistricting coups.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    Forgot the link to Cillizza, here it is......
    http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Can't agree
    With CA-Sen as a tossup. Are they basing that entirely on SurveyUSA? The last two polls (one of them Rasmussen) both have Boxer up nine points.


    [ Parent ]
    Feild Poll
    Showed Boxer up by only 3, within the margin of error. Field Poll is the best CA pollster.  

    [ Parent ]
    How many thousands of votes is that
    In California? Besides, and as I said, the two most recent polls show a bigger margin. Field is the best but in this case it is dated.

    [ Parent ]
    One is Rasmussen
    PPP see's an electorate with more Democrats and less independents than 2008. I don't see independent turning dropping from 28% in 2008 to 19% this year. I'm not totally sure, but I don't think more Democrats will turn out this year either.  

    [ Parent ]
    Trust the toplines
    I've been consistent on this whatever the pollster or the result. Particularly since making adjustments for what you think might happen actually only moves the needle a couple points at most. Besides, indies will likely be lower in a midterm though I agree not by this much. Also, Boxer leads with unafiliated voters anyway. And there is now a PPIC out showing broadly the same thing as Rasmussen and PPP. SurveyUSA looks like the outlier. Leans Dem.

    [ Parent ]
    Is there any science or anything behind
    it harder to shift margins in bigger states because 3% could be 400,000 voters?

    [ Parent ]
    Sure I've heard it more than once
    And it seems obvious to me. Probably the best way to put it would be the way a national landslide would not be considered a landslide in a state even with the same percentage.

    [ Parent ]
    I REALLY, REALLY hope this has moved into toss-up range
    I think you're right that this may be a case of Perry having worn out his welcome.  He's already the longest serving Gov. in Texas history, and people have passed judgment on him.  Now White just has to establish himself as a viable alternative, and he's got a shot.  Along those lines, the most heartening thing I took from the link you provided is that White is actually significnatly ahead of Perry in terms of cash on hand -- 9 million to 5.8 million.  As I've said about Bill White before, IF he can pull this off, and IF he can be seen as a successful governor, I think he shoots onto the short list of 2016 Presidential candidates.

    [ Parent ]
    Still tilts to Perry for me
    In the same way CA tilts to Brown. I am getting off the fence from now on and not calling anything a tossup.

    [ Parent ]
    No toss-ups?
    The campaign season hasn't even started!

    [ Parent ]
    Someone said the other day
    If a candidate leads in most polls they are ahead no matter the margins.

    [ Parent ]
    ROTFLMAO
    I might just move NV-Sen to Leans Dem now!

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...


    Okay, what does that acronym mean?


    [ Parent ]
    Rolling on the floor
    Laughing my ass off!

    [ Parent ]
    RASMUSSEN DID CHANGE ITS RATING HERE AND IS SURRENDERING IT AS LEAN DEM!!!...
    Seriously, based on their one poll showing Reid up 2 after he trailed everyone in all Rasmussen polls for all-time, Rasmussen changed its rating from tossup to lean Dem.

    Even Rasmussen never calls a 2-point race anything but a tossup, and they called NV-Sen a tossup even when Angle led by 3 in their last poll.  But now Reid up just 2, and they move it.

    I think this just offers further proof that Scott Rasmussen knowingly rigs his polling in favor of Repbulicans.  He knows a 3-point Angle lead in his own "polling" is really no such thing, and he knows a 2-point Reid lead even in Scott's own rigged polling is really a bigger lead for Harry.

    I'm thrilled, when Rasmussen surrenders, you KNOW we're in the driver's seat.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    It's nice and all
    but if Rasmussen goes and polls Nevada again, and with his wacky results, finds something different it will be back at Tossup. When he showed Burr up by 1 against Marshall it was a tossup. A week later it was Safe R. So I don't really care much about his ratings of races. It's the numbers that matter.  

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah
    Y'all gotta remember the fact that not only does Rasmussen poll in an entirely different United States of America than everybody else but his polls are also the only polls that exist in the entire universe. At least in terms of his own rankings table.

    [ Parent ]
    His ratings are complete nonsense
    He has Colorado at tossup when both Republicans lead both Democrats by between 4 and 9 points yet Ohio is leans Republican when Portman leads by 6! New Hampshire is similar to CO but with an even wider spread yet it is also Leans Republican. There are other anomalies but that is the most glaring.

    [ Parent ]
    I still see those as supporting my point, that Scott concedes his polls are cooked......
    I think he knows his own polling has a GOP bias and cannot be taken at face value, and that concession seeps into his ratings somewhat.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    No
    it doesn't. While Quinnipiac, PPP, and UOC have seen Fisher with a +1 or +2 in Ohio, Ramussen puts it at Lean Republican. This is ONLY based on his own polling. In North Carolina, Elaine Marshall is down between 5-10, but Rasmussen puts it at Safe GOP because of his polling.

    So Rasmussen believes his own polling. Otherwise, there wouldn't be these errors. His ratings are nonsense.

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    [ Parent ]
    Thanks for clarifying that
    NC-Sen Safe GOP?  What is he smoking?

    [ Parent ]
    Everything
    Goes by his polls. Nothing else. He doesn't look at candidate strength, fundraising or anything. His ratings change all the time because he goes strictly by what his polls say.  

    [ Parent ]
    Which is
    why I don't get the original comment. I think we can all say that NC-SEN is not Safe GOP, even if Burr is the slight favorite

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    [ Parent ]
    KY-Gov: "Tea Party Ticket" Being announced tommorow
    Rand Paul's former chairman is announcing a Tea Party ticket for Gov tomorrow (they will be running as Repubs, with Tea Party values). I'm pretty sure former Senate candidate Bill Johnson will have a place on the ticket.  

    The Brownback Chimera link
    is broken.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

    Fullmetal Alchemist
    Don't knock Brownback.  His efforts could've saved Nina Tucker. ;-)

    [ Parent ]
    NC-8 Kissell
    The House Majority Leader is parachuting into a whole host of districts, doing events for Dems such as Mark Critz, Chris Carney, Tim Bishop, Denny Heck, and the undeserving Larry Kissell.

    Kissell has gotten a lot of votes wrong - and misled a lot of contributors like me - but at least he voted for Pelosi as speaker.

    If Kissell manages to get re-elected, his votes are gonna count a lot more in 2011. And he's gonna owe Steny some votes because his fundraising to date is awful.


    Rendell suffers foot and mouth disorder again today
    http://www.politicspa.com/cbs-...

    What the hell is going on with Rendell?  He is making odd comments at a rate that is unusually high for even him.


    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    Gloves are off in MN-Gov now
    The Alliance for a Better Minnesota, the DFL counter to the GOP MN Forward mentioned in the Digest, is airing this ad, spending $500k on it.  It's a mother whose son died due to a drunk driver knocking Tom Emmer for sponsoring a bill to lower the penalty for drinking and driving while having two DWI on his record.

    The Alliance for a Better Minnesota is funded by pro-DFL businesses, unions, and Native American casinos.  The last can pretty much buy this election and any others in the future for us.  Not saying I agree with this all of this, but the corporations will always get a much bigger knock than the casinos I think.  Particularly since it's the Native American tribes, who've always been very generous to the DFL and we've all known that and known where their money comes from.  People still gamble.



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