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SSP Updates 40 Race Ratings

by: James L.

Fri Jul 23, 2010 at 12:25 PM EDT


We've finally gotten around to updating our House, Senate and Gubernatorial race ratings charts with the following 40 changes:

  • AR-Sen: Lean R to Likely R
  • CA-Sen: Likely D to Lean D
  • HI-Sen: Races to Watch to Safe D
  • IN-Sen: Tossup to Lean R
  • ND-Sen: Likely R to Safe R
  • WI-Sen: Races to Watch to Lean D

  • AK-Gov: Races to Watch to Safe R
  • CA-Gov: Lean D to Tossup
  • FL-Gov: Lean R to Tossup
  • GA-Gov: Lean R to Tossup
  • ID-Gov: Safe R to Likely R
  • KS-Gov: Safe R to Likely R
  • MD-Gov: Likely D to Tossup
  • ME-Gov: Lean D to Tossup
  • NM-Gov: Likely D to Tossup
  • NV-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
  • NY-Gov: Races to Watch to Safe D
  • OK-Gov: Lean R to Likely R
  • OR-Gov: Likely D to Tossup
  • PA-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
  • TN-Gov: Lean R to Likely R

  • AR-02: Tossup to Lean R
  • DE-AL: Likely D to Lean D
  • FL-02: Safe D to Lean D
  • FL-22: Likely D to Lean D
  • GA-08: Likely D to Lean D
  • IA-03: Lean D to Tossup
  • IL-17: Safe D to Likely D
  • KY-03: Safe D to Likely D
  • KY-06: Likely D to Lean D
  • NC-02: Safe D to Likely D
  • NC-07: Safe D to Likely D
  • NC-08: Likely D to Lean D
  • ND-AL: Lean D to Tossup
  • NY-19: Lean D to Tossup
  • NY-29: Tossup to Lean R
  • OH-16: Lean D to Tossup
  • SD-AL: Lean D to Tossup
  • TX-17: Lean D to Tossup

34 of these changes favor Republicans; 6 races have moved in the Democratic direction.
James L. :: SSP Updates 40 Race Ratings
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SSP Updates 40 Race Ratings | 127 comments
Only one of these I question
KS-Governor. Has something happened in that race to make Brownback less likely to win?

Otherwise, I can see the logic for all of these.  

Brownback is pretty much hated
by KS Republican moderates.  Our nominee, Tom Holland, could potentially win this 2002 Sebellius style; moderate GOPers in Johnson County (KC suburbs) flock to the Democrats because the GOPer will cut everything in the budget, including probably these people's number one local issue, education.
[ Parent ]
Potentially, although the polls don't show this happening
I'd still say this is safe Republican, until we see some closing in the polls.  
[ Parent ]
Democrats continue to play defence
6 out of 40 is not much. Even if economy improves, say, in August-September (and present situation shows few signs of it, rather some sort of stagnation) - some time must go before people will perceive that and react correspondingly. So all the talk that "it's more then 3 month before election" doesn't sound very convincingly: of course some Republican candidates may implode, like we see now in Colorado, but generally - situation for Democrats is not difficult, it's very difficult. Especially in Governor and House races..
My only hope now for the House is...
...that 39 seats just proves too steep a hill for the GOP to climb.  In other words, they score a jackpot, but it's still in the low/mid-30s.  Hell, maybe even 38, I'll take that!...it means we still control the floor, and controlling the floor is the biggest single deal.  But holding our losses "down" to 38 is plausible even as bad as things are.  That we have big money advantages among individual campaigns an with the DCCC and not that many vulnerable open seats helps make it very plausible.

I still think even in the worst case we hold the Senate, if for no other reason than that I'm increasingly convinced Harry Reid and Charlie Crist will win, and Crist will caucus with us.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Oh absolutely,..
It's very plausible Dems could only lose 20-30 seats. There are plenty of scenarios as to how Dems could lose the house, but that doesn't mean it's going to happen. In fact, at this point, I would honestly still bet against it.  
[ Parent ]
Let's just hope that the Parker Griffeth example
prevents those blue dogs who remain after the 2010 elections from --even thinking-- about defecting.

OTOH, would losing the House narrowly be better for D chances in 2012 (when compared to blue dogs holding the balance of power)?

[ Parent ]
Theres nothing
to prevent them from following Rodney Alexander's example. That would only work for Dems that will never be challenged like Boren. Wait until the day of filing when you have no serious primary opponents and no serious general election opponents and file as a Republican.  
[ Parent ]
I'd like to see federal legislation
to ban that kind of dirty politics.  Rodney Alexander's actions were about as disgraceful and disgusting as I've seen, things like this are a large part of the reason why people dislike politicians.

While I hate Phil Gramm, I have to give him credit for the way he switched.  He switched parties, resigned his seat, and ran as a Republican in a special election.

[ Parent ]
I would bet against it as well ...
... I'm feeling slightly better now than a week ago.  Now that the major legislative battles are over for the year, I think the WH on down are going to start fighting back on the 'national narrative'.

The fact that NRCC will be outspent 2:1 helps too.  There were reports of RNC withholding on debts too.  Steele and company might be our best weapon against losing the House.

 

[ Parent ]
but that ignores
the all the shadowy 527s in operation, and there seems to be a lot more conservative ones than liberal ones. And the recent SCOTUS decision makes it even easier to do unaccounted political spending.
No one seems to have a handle on on all that money.
[ Parent ]
Those 527s are a LOT less effective than parties and campaigns, proven by the 2004 example......
One lesson from 2004 was that top-down party-based organization is just better than having a mish mash of independent allies doing the work.  Kerry didn't have the money or structure to do what Dubya and Rove did, so he relied on all the 527s, especially for field but also on the air.

The Republicans are not happy about having to really on Rove's group "American Crossroads" and others to do the dirty work.

And the Republicans have been accustomed to RNC-based field work that has been neglected badly this year, and state parties are contracting now to have that work done and are not happy.

Marc Ambinder wrote about all this on his blog this week.

There's no question that no matter what happens election night, we'll save a few seats simply because of the disaster that is Michael Steele.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I certainly would as well
Elections matter, and there just isnt enough evidence that people actually like the GOP, they are just pissed at us because we're in charge.

Bah, if only Bush could have been President for one more year when everything actually turned to shit, he only got to see the financial system crash.  Now we get blamed for everything we didnt do and zero praise for what we are doing.  This cycle is total bullshit and this why I wont feel nearly as bad about November, this isnt we disagree with the Democrats and their ideology, this is we're PISSED.  And when you control nearly every swing district, you are going to get your ass kicked in these situations.  (That sounds like an analysis  someone ought to do for wave elections, I would but Ive got two going already.)

[ Parent ]
1 more year for Bush
would have put unemployment at 20%. No stimulus plus bankruptcy for GM and Chrysler plus continuing the war in Iraq = we might have ended up with 300 House seats and 65 in the Senate.
[ Parent ]
Umm
You know Bush bailed out GM and Chrysler, right?
[ Parent ]
38 seats
If we win 38, whats gonna keep Boren or Minnick from switching? I know Boren's dad was a strong Democrat, but Boren is pretty much a Republican. I think he and Bright are to the right of Cao actually. Boren even refused to endorse Obama after he won the primary!  
[ Parent ]
Teabagger-fueled primaries
will prevent that.

What will likely happen if the GOP gains 33-40 seats is this, the hard core Blue Dogs will probably pick one of their own as Speaker, and you would probably have Blue Dog and "moderate" GOP (moderate being those who join the Blue Dogs in this gambit) committee chairs with neither party leadership having any real control of the agenda.  

[ Parent ]
Blue dogs
Do they a) support Pelosi, b) Support someone else, like Hoyer or Metheson, or c) join with Republicans but refuse to vote for Boehnor, making a compromise pick for Speaker between Republicans and Blue Dogs to give us control, maybe someone like Cantor or McMorris Rodgers?  
[ Parent ]
Depends on how many seats are lost
If it is less than 30-35, which will be seen as a win for the Dems, they support Pelosi.  If it is between 33-38, probably Blue Dogs force the other Dems to support a Blue Dog for Speaker, with the implicit threat that if they don't, they may vote for a "moderate" Republican as Speaker.

I have a hard time seeing (c) now that the GOP is expected by many to gain the House.  If the environment was better for the Dems and the GOP was only expected to gain say 20-25, and then gained 35-40, then I could see (c).  

Basically if GOP gains are in the 30s, I would expect the Speaker to be someone other than Pelosi or Boehner.

[ Parent ]
Blue Dogs DO support Pelosi. Some here don't seem to understand Pelosi's support isn't ideologically-based......
Pelosi's support within the House Democratic Caucus is based on strong relationships with people across the ideological spectrum.  Remember Murtha, in spite of having become a liberal hero for turning against the Iraq War, was a conservaDem, and he was a strong Pelosi ally.  There are lots of Blue Dogs who love Pelosi and stick with her.

And there are plenty of liberals who are tighter with Hoyer and prefer him.

The leadership battles aren't really ideological on the Democratic side.  These people build relationships based on personality and practical politics.

I don't think Pelosi can be dislodged.  If Democrats hold the House even by just one seat, if anything expectations have reached the point that it will be considered a Democratic victory just to have the majority.  So there won't be any pressure to replace her.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
If Dems hold control by 1 seat
Pelosi could have a problem. Didn't Boren say he wouldn't vote for her again? Also, what if Oliverio is one of those Dems? I guess he'd vote Dem though, since they seem to have embraced him and Boehner has been helping McKinney a lot.  
[ Parent ]
If there is a battle over Speaker
Then it would only be if a member would be willing to pull something like what happened in the NY Senate (basically, a case of "make me Speaker or I'll vote for Boehner).

Otherwise, there's no obvious alternative to Pelosi if it's truly an ideological battle (which, for the record, I agree with DCCyclone about, Pelosi will have no problems keeping her Speakership assuming the Democrats retain the majority). Steny Hoyer isn't any less liberal than Pelosi is; and then there are regional considerations that don't have anything to do with ideology (for example, Conservadems from the west don't really have any incentive to support conservadems from the south and vice-versa)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Hoyer
Has been trying to make inroads with Blue Dogs and has a bad relationship with Pelosi. According to Politico, he is considering a challenge to her. Hmm. Sound similar to any other Politico article detailing leadership relations among Republicans? Considering no one else reports on it, it makes you wonder...
[ Parent ]
He's strongly denied it
but if Dems lose the House, Hoyer might be angling for Minority Leader.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
[ Parent ]
I
could see Boren switching but not Minnick. Boren is conservative enough that he would probably make it through the primary. Minnick would stand no chance in a Republican primary and he knows it.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Why Would They?
In terms of House power, Pelosi can match any offer the Republicans would make, and in terms of re-election, surviving 2010 proves the "D" label isn't that much of a hardship for them, and they're not likely to face many more years this bad.

I guess they could try to force a more moderate Speaker, but again, why? Pelosi doesn't make 'em vote for the lefty stuff, and she'll be bringing a lot less of that stuff to the floor in 2011 anyway.

[ Parent ]
Correct, Pelosi lets Members vote "no" as needed, and further she's practical in other ways......
She pushed a lot of tough votes in 2009 reasonably believing the Senate would act on them, but no one anticipated Baucus fucking around like a moron on health care for soooooo long, which damaged the rest of the agenda.  So Pelosi pulled back this year and said no more tough votes on anything until the Senate acts first.

Blue Dogs understand that Pelosi is a good leader within the Caucus who tries her best to accommodate everyone's needs while still pushing through an agenda.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
The foaming, unfettered fury of the GOP base...
Parker Griffith is going to serve as a warning to any conservative Democrats who want to jump ship to stay in the majority in the event Speaker Boehner becomes a reality. He did everything one would expect to win over the teabaggers in his district and he got 30% of the vote to show for it. I guarantee you his specter (and Arlen Specter, though it's fairly obvious the GOP base is a lot more rigid about this stuff nowadays) will serve as notice that you can't just jump ship and expect to be embraced by the party faithful when they voted against you in the last election.

Party switching used to be a lot easier (i.e. - Dick Shelby) when the base wasn't seething with such visceral anger as it is today.  

[ Parent ]
I doubt either of them would
Boren is a life-long Democrat, as was his conservative father. Minnick, even less so. He's extremely conservative on fiscal issues, but he's rather moderate or even liberal on certain social issues. He's hardly as conservative as Mike Simpson. He wouldn't have the independence to vote his conscience as a Republican (neither would Boren).

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
[ Parent ]
Boren
Wouldn't need it. He already votes Republican.  
[ Parent ]
He voted for the jobs bill I think


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
He also
voted for unemployment benefits. I doubt any Republican from a R+14 district would do that... or COULD do that without getting teabagged.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
[ Parent ]
If the Republicans end up 1 or another very small number short of a majority
the Democrats probably won't be able to pass anything.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
dan boren
would be the most powerful congressman. ugh.

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
I'd
move CA-Sen to tossup personally. Fiorina is still weighed down by what happened at HP, but with Boxer's polarizing personality and the fact everyone down here in California hates politicians from Sacramento to Washington, Fiorina might be able to limit the damage attacks on tenure at HP that will come from Boxer and the DSCC

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
California
California is definitely a tossup, but I suspect that even Wisconsin might need to be considered a tossup too.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
WI
I'd hold off on calling it toss-up until one more non-Rasmussen, and non-Badger poll comes out. If PPP polls it again or SUSA shows a statistical tie, I'll be ready to say toss-up too.  
[ Parent ]
I'll be glad to bet any amount of money on Boxer
All except one of a jillion polls have Boxer in the lead, and Boxer is up by 7 with Rasmussen.

Might as well definitely list the Globetrotters game as a tossup.

[ Parent ]
I think Meg's money helps Carly
I think that since Meg Whitman will put part of her millions into a massive GOP GOTV effort that it could have a positive effect on other candidates running.

If Whitman can use her money to get GOP base to the polls Carly could get a coattail effect.

So I can see this race as lean Dem/toss up.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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[ Parent ]
Fiorina is arrogant and unlikable.
She has a past that is difficult to package positively. Boxer, on the other hand, is savvy, has done a lot for California, has won close races before, and should not be counted out. I see no evidence that "everyone" in California hates all politicians. Right now I'd say that the Senate race leans Democratic and the Governor race is a toss-up. Most polls I've seen support this assessment.

One shouldn't underestimate how Democratic California basically is. The GOP base usually goes to the polls and certainly will this time. The question is whether the Dem base will show up.

I think the general discussion here is overly pessimistic. But time will tell.

[ Parent ]
Are you
related to David?  
[ Parent ]
I agree
Boxer will beat Fiorina by a bigger than expected margin.
[ Parent ]
What happened in Delaware
I didn't see any poll showing Carney within single digits
Got an opponent with cash
like raised $500k in the last quarter cash.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
and can self fund
She can outspend him with one check, but she raised 500k from donors with only like 4k of her own money last qt.  
[ Parent ]
IA-03 must be a typo on its previous rating???......
You have IA-03, Leonard Boswell, going FROM "lean R" to tossup.  That had to be "lean D" before, right?  No one ever had Boswell the underdog!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
I was thinking that as well...
Though I do think this race is probably a tossup now.  
[ Parent ]
I don't
Boswell had seven times Zaun's cash on hand as of June 30, and Bill Clinton is coming to town tomorrow to raise more money for Boswell. Meanwhile, the NRCC only just got around to putting Zaun "on the radar". That's the bottom tier of their Young Guns program. I can't see the NRCC spending serious money on Zaun. They can't even afford to spend serious money on all their "young guns" and "contenders."

I know money isn't everything, and Boswell tends to underperform, but this is still a lean D race.

[ Parent ]
NH-Sen
Does anyone actually consider New Hampshire Senate a tossup at this point?  Barring some freaky outcome in the primary, this race is lean Republican.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
NH Is Tricky
Going by polls, it's lean R. But it's early, the Republicans probably have been getting more attention since they've got a primary, and I don't know how much campaigning Hodes has done yet, so it's hard to say how reliable today's polling is for November.

I believe Hodes trailed in the polls at this time back in 2006 but won by 7 percentage points. Retail politics is still the reality in NH. Plus he's got a $500k cash-on-hand advantage over Ayotte, who still has a primary to deal with. Sure, I'd rather see him up than down right now, but NH is such a quirky state that it may be hard to know what's really going on.

Or at least I hope that's not just wishful thinking/rationalization on my part.

[ Parent ]
Size and Scope of Government
New Hampshire is the state where the size and scope of government is always the issue.  The Republicans have done well there for the last century because of that.  The reason the Democrats gained ground there was because the Republicans became the big government party on issues like the Iraq War and social issues.  Unless the Democrats can get the focus on those issues, the Democrats are doomed in New Hampshire because they are not going to be fanatics for any form of social spending or tax increases.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
I basically agree with this
although I will say that someone like Hodes could have won in 2006/2008 (and he did), even if he had openly run on a big-government higher taxes platform.  

Similarly, a more moderate Democrat on those issues (Lynch, Shaheen) might have been more competitive this year and would have had a chance to win depending on the opponent.  

It is the combination of the year and the candidate is why we are doomed in New Hampshire.  The only way I can see Hodes winning is if the GOP nominee turns out to have a huge skeleton in the closet that is exposed in October.  (Or if Ovide is nominated and makes several campaign blunders)

[ Parent ]
close

A lot of NH Democratic voters simply make up their minds late.    Or it's the turnout organization originally built by the Kerry campaign.  Either way, Democrats have been able to make up 6-8 percentage points on pollings on Election Day.
[ Parent ]
Likely Republican IMO
It would be Tossup/Tilt Republican if Ovide Lamontagne makes the biggest comeback in history and wins the primary.

I would even put North Carolina and Louisiana above NH right now, and would put Iowa just below it.

The problem is Hodes, in that he comes off as a traditional liberal and doesn't moderate any on issues where New Hampshire is conservative.  He is in effect daring voters there to "choose" between a liberal and a conservative.  That would have worked in 2006 or 2008, or it may work in a different kind of state, but it won't work this year in libertarian minded New Hampshire.    

[ Parent ]
Louisiana is way more Republican than NH
No way do I agree with you on your rating.

I do think that at this point, NH-Sen is Lean-R, though.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
I think it's Lean R
And, this is having just recently returned from about a month in NH (Rockingham County, to be precise). I saw plenty of Ayotte and Binnie yard signs, and met a number of folks supporting them and, to a lesser extent, Hodes too. Didn't meet anyone who was with Ovide.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Reasonable
My own opinion is that we know as much as the "experts." And this election is going to test that. Rothenberg and Cook have had strange updates (Spratt as a toss-up, Dahlkemper too despite a weak opponent). I personally think they are getting too much information and out-thinking themselves.
This cycle
I continue to believe this cycle will be one of the most unpredictable cycles in decades.  The reason why is that voters are being driven by raw and unorganized anger.  This means things like PVI and traditional models will likely be tested like never before.

Another thing that will throw things out of whack is the potential for the Bush era realignment reversing itself to a certain extent.  Some of the suburban territory gained by the Democrats over the last decade will probably fall back to the Republicans as these voters suffer from sticker shock when it comes to spending and government programs.  This also means that Democrats who advocate largess in poorer districts that have tilted Republican more recently might be able to be saved.


23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
I think your right
I bet we have some big surprises on election night. Quite a few big surprises.  
[ Parent ]
I agree that it is unpredictable
I go back and forth, some days I think that the losses will be held to the low 20s, some days I think the whole thing will break open and the GOP will gain 75.  But it could really be either of those and could be something in between.

But I would watch for a special event in the fall, which would give a huge bump to one party or other, making their campaign themes ring clearly.  In 2006, that defining event was the Mark Foley revelations.  Before that, the GOP was making a comeback and people felt that the  GOP could hold the House.  After that, the bottom fell out, and the GOP was lucky to lose just 30 seats in the House.

In 2008, this event was the financial crisis.  Before it, McCain was the comeback kid.  After it, the GOP was headed for another disastrous year.

My feeling is that if such an event comes that favors the GOP, they will take the House and take a bunch of Senate seats.  If it doesn't come, the GOP will probably get 30-35 and no more than 2-4 in the Senate.


[ Parent ]
Something like Rangel?
What if around October something big comes out on him? What if something comes out about the administration and Blago working together, or reverse, something is discovered to be even more crooked in the RNC or something big comes out the Greer trials in FL? I'm expecting something, and thats the only reason I think FL is toss-up and not lean Crist.  
[ Parent ]
Corruption will probably not do it
unless it is directly tied to Obama or Pelosi.  The reason why Mark Foley resonated so much in 2006 was because the Dems campaign was on two main lines, GOP corruption and the Iraq War.  The GOP isn't really running against corruption as much as they are running against what they consider Obama's "big government" agenda and the poor economy.  

Blago and Obama admin working together might do it.  Rangel probably would be a drop in the bucket (especially if he is censured).  Impact of Greer would be limited to Florida.  It would hurt both Rubio and Crist, but because that would help the Dem candidate, it would hurt Crist more.  It would probably help Sink.

The bombshell would have to be something completely unexpected and would have to tie into the message of one or the other party in order to have the effect of Foley scandal or the financial crisis.

One possible idea would be some disastrous unexpected economic news, this would solidify things the GOP.  Another would be some foreign policy disaster with terrorism which gives credence to Dick Cheney's warnings.  

One idea the other way may be a GOP attempt to roll out something similar to "Contract with America", and the rollout is so bad and the agenda plays right into the Democrats' message.  Or a successful confrontation with Iran with Iran blinking (trying my best impression of the Cuban Missile Crisis).


[ Parent ]
In FL
I mean if Crist is discovered having had some sort of part in Greer's corruption. I wouldn't expect Rubio to as he and Greer have never had a good relationship, and Greer was Crist's hand-picked chairman.  
[ Parent ]
Crist
Crist is toast if he is tied to Greer's corruption.  It would also give Rubio another argument that he is the reform candidate while Meek is floating out there broke.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
If Crist is actually implicated in Greer's corruption
then he would be finished and Rubio would be elected.  
[ Parent ]
Game changers...
Corruption is not going to do it unless it directly involves Obama or the congressional leadership.  Of the Big Four (Obama, Biden, Reid and Pelosi) I suspect Reid is the most likely to have a major corruption scandal simply because he is from slimy Nevada.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
OTOH Reid has been there
now for 24 years.  If he was corrupt, we'd probably know about it.  
[ Parent ]
Rangel
Rangel has been there since 1971 and it took 39 years to bring him up on charges.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Also
He is being heavily targeted this year. If there was something on him, I find it very hard to believe we wouldn't know yet, unless the Angle campaign or NRSC is waiting until its too late for them to replace him. I think the most likely is not Obama personally, but Rham and it being discovered Obama knew about it.  
[ Parent ]
No
I doubt Reid is corrupt. I have never heard anyone, even his worst enemies accuse him of any corruption of any sorts that I know of. You mention Rangel, well it is not like he just found out he was corrupt this year. He has smelled somewhat corrupt for years and years now. Reid has never had ANY claims against him and usually you see several minor things that get you wondering before corruption is clear. I have not seen anything to make me think Reid might be corrupt. The thing that worries me is Blago and Obama. I doubt Obama did anything directly wrong but I worry that a tape or something making Obama or Emmanuel sound bad gets out, and that would kill us. I am probably worrying too much though as I do not think Obama directly talked to him about it. I hate Blago so much.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Be Surprised if...
...anything more comes out of Blago. Story's been out for 2 years, and the substantive parts of the trial just ended. Hard to see where that bombshell can come out.
[ Parent ]
You're misinterpreting the Mark Foley scandal......
First, the reason Mark Foley resonated so much was because it was about SEX.  A sex scandal always resonates in the news and with average voters for sheer titillation.

Second, it did not fit the larger "corruption" narrative all that well, except that the story of top GOPers being aware of Foley's problems and covering them up or not acting sorta kinda fit.  But really the Foley scandal didn't have any effect on any seats except for Foley's own, and even there the 11th-hour substitute GOPer barely lost, by just 2 points.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Foley was meaningless
Sex scandals rarely bring entire parties down.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
When
Its with an underage boy it does.  
[ Parent ]
Yes but it was more than that
it fit the campaign narrative.  

Had this come out in 2004 instead of 2006, it wouldn't have cost Bush reelection, because corruption wasn't part of the issue.

[ Parent ]
And when the party leadership was sitting on that information
That's what was the killer.
[ Parent ]
Some evidence suggests Foley actually might have mattered...
Opinion of the Republican party and GOP performance on the generic ballot both dropped after the Foley scandal.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/249...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/249...

In September (before Foley) the GOP had actually pulled into a tie among likely voters.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/246...

Foley may have been straw that broke the camel's back.  That the GOP leadership knew about it and didn't stop it fit the corruption narrative pretty well, as shown in Gallup polling.  Besides that, the smell of pedophilia (though no underage sex was alleged) was just too gross for people to forget IMHO.

[ Parent ]
Gains
I think the Republicans will gain 4 to 7 Senate seats and 35 to 50 House seats barring a massive Democratic implosion, which I actually rate around 40 percent at this point.  If one of the five happen, the Democrats could easily lose 60+ seats in the House and lose 10 Senate seats:

1) Double Dip Recession
2) Stagflation
3) General Middle East War between Israel and Iran
4) Domestic terrorist attack
5) Overthrow of a European government (most likely Greece)

What I think the big surprise will be is the seats that the Democrats lose in the House.  The Democrats are going to lose a lot of districts that are in the D+0 to D+5 range, but they will hold seats McCain won.  That is why I stand by my prediction that the Democrats will lose three seats in Pennsylvania, PA-7, PA-8 and PA-11, but hold PA-3, PA-4, PA-10, and PA-17.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
1 and 2 even if they happen
probably wouldn't be clear until 2011.  In order for it to be felt by the American people (as something beyond just this recession) it would take a few months.  But if either (1) or (2) happen you will likely see a GOP President in 2013.

(3) depends on when it happens and how it ends, it might be disastrous for Dems or it could be good for Dems.

(4) would be a huge GOP landslide.

I'm not sure what would happen with (5). Eventually it could be a disaster, but I'm not sure that it might not give Obama a temporary boost.  Or it may just be ignored by the populace at large.  

[ Parent ]
Double dip and stagflation
It does not matter if either is happening, if the public perceives them to be happening, it is just as fatal.  The markets have had a rough few months.  I have heard my father complaining about it because his 401k has taken a hit.  I know he is not the only one looking at those statements thinking the economy is getting worse.

We are seeing a lot of bankruptcies at the law firm where I am  a summer associate.  We do not even advertise as a firm who performs them and the firm is getting consultations right and left.  Probably 3 to 4 times our usual rate.  I hear the same from other classmates who are at small to midsize firms.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Again the upper classes and professionals
might notice it months before the rest of us do.  For working class and middle class people, the stock market is just not that important to them.  

Nobody I know feels a "double dip" or stagflation.  To them it is just one big recession, and the blame is on everyone from Bush to Obama to Congress to financial companies, etc.      

Job losses matter.  Foreclosures matter.  The general economy matters.  

Just like I doubt an improvement in the job numbers, if it were to happen in the next three months would not be felt by the average person in November, neither would a double-dip or a stagflation situation.

[ Parent ]
Upper and Upper-Middle class voters
This is why I think we are going to see the Dems lose a lot of soft Democratic seats in more affluent areas, but not lose some of the more blue collar/lower middle class districts.  More affluent districts have seen a recovery in the sense that the markets were performing better for awhile and people were regaining wealth lost in 2008.  Now if there is a reversal, they would be the first to notice and politically act on this notice.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
That's what I think too
Nobody I know feels a "double dip" or stagflation.  To them it is just one big recession, and the blame is on everyone from Bush to Obama to Congress to financial companies, etc.

Everyone is just pissed at everyone.  Hopefully we get some fun shockers to watch!  Maybe this year I'll just stay home and drink myself silly following the elections instead of go to the state DFL party.  $5 beer, cant follow the results very well.  Plus Id rather be depressed at home if need be.

[ Parent ]
50?
I think it would be very hard for Republicans to pick up 50. Using SSP's ratings for Democratic-held seats, there are two likely D-to-R flips, 4 lean D-to-R flips, and then 32 Democratic toss-up seats. I find it hard to believe that Republicans will run the table on the toss-ups, especially if the economy continues to show signs of improvement, even if mildly so. But even if they did win every single toss-up, the Republicans would have to take 12 of the 34 lean-D seats. If Democrats hold onto 10 the toss-ups (about a third of them), then Republicans would have to take almost 2/3rds of the lean-D races. And that's assuming no Republican losses in LA-02 (likely D), DE-AL (lean D), HI-01 or IL-10 (toss-ups), and that they hold their own 3 lean-R seats. Possible, but I wouldn't put it on the likely end of the scale.

I'm going with the consensus 25-30 view, though I'm not sure I'd bet much on that either right now. There's still a long way to go, and a lot of individual races have yet to play out.

[ Parent ]
Your are too focused on the pre-existing models
The models are not going to work this election because it has some unique circumstances.  Additionally, they are based off the Bush era and voters reacting to him.  He is gone and fading into the electoral abyss.  The Democrats are going to lose a lot of D+0 to D+5 districts because there quite possibly is something of a reseting going on.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
What Models?
"The models are not going to work this election because it has some unique circumstances.  Additionally, they are based off the Bush era and voters reacting to him.  He is gone and fading into the electoral abyss."

I'm not working off of "models." I assume SSP's ratings have taken the considerations you mentioned into account in their assessments; I don't think they're "based off the Bush era" but on current conditions. And I've seen no polling to contradict SSP's assessments.

Things might get worse, or they might get better, but for now I'd put a 50 seat loss in the possible-but-unlikely end of the spectrum. I don't know anyone else who is predicting 50. Sabato says 32 right now. http://www.centerforpolitics.o... Election Projection says 30. http://www.electionprojection.... I think substantially higher projected losses need more than "things are different" to justify it, since those creating those rankings are also probably aware of different circumstances.

[ Parent ]
Here's what I think we'll lose right now
West: Nevada-3, Arizona-1,5, New Mexico-2, Colorado-4
South: Texas-17, Arkansas-2, Louisiana-3, Mississippi-1, Florida-8,24, S Carolina-5, Tennessee 6,8, Virginia 2,5.
Midwest: N Dakota, Kansas-3, Iowa-3,  Illinois-14, Indiana-8,9, Mich-7, Ohio-1,15, Penn 7,11
East: Maryland-1, New York-24,29, New Hampshire 1,2

32 seats

Right on the edge to lose:

West: Idaho-1, Arizona-8, Washington-3,
South: Arkansas-1, Florida-22, W Virginia-1
Midwest: S Dakota, Illinois-11, Mich-1, Missouri-4, Ohio-16, Penn-3
East: NY-1,19

14 seats

GOP blowout (would include a few not on the list):

West: Oregon-5, New Mex-1, Colorado-3,7, Utah-2,  
South:  Ala-2,Georgia-8, Miss-4, NCar-2,8, Tenn-4, Virginia-9,11, Kentucky-6
Midwest: Wisc-7,8, Ill-8, Ind-2, Mich-9, Ohio-18, Penn-8,10
East: Conn-4, Mass-10, New Jersey-3, NY-20

26+ seats

[ Parent ]
I Basically Agree
With the first two categories.

In the disaster scenario, I think it becomes completely unpredictable. Frankly, I think most on your list will actually survive, and some lazy people will get stunned.

[ Parent ]
Both in the disaster scenario
One of the things that would happen is that some hard core GOP districts will vote just party line rather than issues.  So the Gene Taylors and Bobby Brights' for example may find that a conservative record isn't enough to save them because voters are just looking to get rid of Democrats.

Of course there will be other Dems who will get shocked.  I have a guess on whom some of them are, but who knows.

[ Parent ]
Curious
Who do you think would get shocked?  I am thinking many of them are probably in the northeast and west.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
House Bloodbath Scorecard
This is how I break it down right now.  If it gets worse, the percentages would get adjusted upward and the number of seats in the bottom tier could increase.  Right now I have about 47 to 50 being really endangered.

Gone (41) [Dems lose 80% of these]

East (12): MD-1, MA-10, NH-1, NH-2, NY-19, NY-24, NY-29, PA-7, PA-11, VA-2, VA-5
Midwest (10): IL-11, IL-14, IN-8, IN-9, KS-3, ND-AL, OH-1, OH-15, OH-16, WI-7
South (11): AR-1, AR-2, FL-2, FL-8, FL-24, LA-3, MS-1, NC-8, SC-5, TN-6, TN-8
West (8): AZ-1, AZ-5, AZ-8, CA-11, CO-4, NV-3, NM-2, WA-3

Going (26) [Dems lose half of these]

East (10): NJ-3, NY-1, NY-13, NY-20, PA-3, PA-4, PA-8, VA-9, VA-11, WV-1
Midwest (10): IN-2, IA-3, KY-6, MI-1, MI-7, M0-4, OH-13, OH-18, SD-AL, WI-8
South (3): FL-22, TX-17, TX-23
West (3): ID-1, NM-1, OR-5

If things get really bad (21) [Dems lose quarter of these]

East (6): CT-5, NJ-12, NY-23, PA-10, PA-17, RI-1
Midwest (5): IL-8, IL-17, IA-1, KY-3, WI-3
South (6): AL-2, AR-4, GA-12, NC-2, NC-11, TN-4
West (4): CA-18, CO-3, CO-4, UT-2

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Wow. You are really too pessimistic.
I don't want to sound like I'm wearing rose colored glasses when I assess the current situation of the House Democrats, but some of the races you have listed under "Gone" made me scratch my head.

For example, it's hard for me to believe that Kissell (NC-8), Spratt (SC-5), Baird's open seat (WA-3), Delahunt's open seat (MA-10), Obey's open seat (WI-7) and all three Arizona seats (AZ 1, 5, 8) will be among the seats we actually lose in the fall. By your analysis, of the "Gone" seats, there is an 8 in 10 chance a Republican will be in those seats next fall.

[ Parent ]
Arizona
I am just getting this feeling that the immigration thing is going to really backfire on the Democrats in Arizona regardless of the stances of the individual candidates.  Arizona voters seem to support the immigration law by a 3 to 1 margin then the Feds decide to sue the state.  We have already seen a massive shift in the numbers in the Governor's race to the right and its very plausible that this could happen in every other race as a reaction to the Justice Department suing Arizona.

My prediction ultimately falls around the Democrats losing 30 to 60 seats.  This projection has them losing roughly 48.  If the climate get worse, it really hard to predict what happens past 50 seats.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
I agree on immigration
but I think Gabby Giffords is an extremely strong campaigner and has a sporting chance to survive anything but a complete bloodbath.
[ Parent ]
AZ governor's race
Not that I'm questioning the consensus that Brewer has improved her position against Goddard in recent months, but have there been any non-Rasmussen polls of this race in the last month or so?
[ Parent ]
Carolina Seats
I mostly agree with your post about Ryan being too optimistic.  Probably none of them should be labeled as "Gone."  However, Kissell and Spratt probably come the closest.  Kissell has alienated a significant portion of Democrats in the district with voting against the health care bill and cap and trade.  Plus he is notoriously horrible at fundraising with his second quarter total quite possibly being one of the lowest for a Democratic incumbent.  His opponent, Harold Johnson, is reasonably well known in much of the district through being a local sportscaster for several years.  Spratt voted for the health care bill, cap and trade, and the stimulus in a district that is much more Republican than Kissell's district.  Spratt's challenger is State Senator Mick Mulvaney who is viewed as the most formidable opposition Spratt has had in a long time.  The Congressman also has Parkinson's disease.  Although it is in the early stages, that probably might cause some voters to shy away from him because of his age.  Being in North Carolina, what do you think of Kissell's race?
[ Parent ]
IA-01? Give me a break
No way is that seat competitive. Braley outperformed Obama in 2008.
[ Parent ]
IA-1
My analysis included any district a Republican had held for 2 or more terms during the decade.  Republicans held IA-1 until Nussle retired to run for Congress.  Additionally, the district in some form had elected a Republican going back to 1978.

Again as I said, a district that is D+5 could be potentially vulnerable while a district that is R+5 might not be as vulnerable in such a climate.  Having a sitting Republican congressman from 1979 to 2007 definitely puts the seat on the radar regardless of its PVI rating.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
But they elected a VERY LIBERAL Republican
I don't think that's any kind of evidence to support them electing anything vaguely like a generic R.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Disregard my message
I was thinking of another district that had voted for Leach. Nussle is a conservative Republican.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
you weren't wrong
because for much of the time Jim Leach was in Congress, he represented several counties that are now in IA-01--the largest was Scott County (Quad Cities), which has traditionally favored moderate Republicans.

One of the reasons Leach became vulnerable this decade was that much of his base went into IA-01 after redistricting.

[ Parent ]
It confuses me
how you could put RI-01, which is D+13, in the same category as all of those marginal or Republican-leaning seats. That is my home district and I can assure you it's not going Republican anytime soon. Even as an open seat in 1994 of all years, this district voted to elect Patrick Kennedy 54-46, and it was probably less Democratic back then (RI as a whole was only D+7-ish back then, I think).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
MI-7, MA-10
A volunteer for the Dems in MA-10 said that it was considered a tossup locally, partly because of candidate effects.

In MI-7, a recent (small-sample) poll strongly suggests that the Republican will be Tim Wahlberg again, who couldn't hold the seat even when he was the incumbent.  This will be a better year for Republicans, but ... viewed from the next district over, Schauer's profile has improved since 2008, Wahlberg's has worsened, and a lot more Republicans have had practice splitting their tickets.

[ Parent ]
Walberg/Rooney
Who's the stronger Republican? I know Rooney will face carpetbagger attacks. IDK why but I get the impression that Walberg is a weak candidate?  
[ Parent ]
Walberg is weak because he performed poorly 2 elections in a row.....
He barely survived with a plurality against a broke Some Dudette in 2006.

And then he lost in 2008.

Rooney is better, I hope Walberg survives him.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Walberg is going to win the primary
I lived in the district for a few years, specifically during part of Walberg's term.  I have heard through the grapevine the local Republicans think Walberg is going to win the primary.

Now the general election is a different matter.  Obama outperformed Schauer in the district in 2008.  I really cannot reason how someone voters for Obama and Walberg, but around 10,000 people did it in MI-7.  If the Republicans had a better candidate, I would have placed MI-7 in the first group and not the second group.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Obama overperformed in Michigan
since McCain wrote the state off.

Plus, Walberg was an incumbent in 2008. That tends to provide a boost.

[ Parent ]
Correct on both points. Campaigns matter......
Walberg was actually campaigning in his district through election day, McCain abandoned the state in September.

Creigh Deeds hardly ran any campaign at all and had no visibility in NoVA, and he lost Fairfax County outright because of it.

Campaigns matter, and not having one can cause outright defeat even in places you should win easily.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
GA-Gov

Has no one noticed that Barnes has been running practically even (sometimes a little ahead, sometimes a little behind) for months??

Real Clear Politics has the race at "Lean R" even though when you look at the data, Barnes is ahead!

"I think the American people misunderestimated me." -George W. Bush

Hrmm
Well, with the GOP field slightly clearer, it's a little easier to look at now.

The last few polls I saw, Barnes trailed Deal, sometimes within the MOE, sometimes just outside.

I believe it was more of a pure toss-up with Handel though with Barnes ahead slightly.

All of that said, I think the race is a toss-up regardless of the GOP nominee, but most probably rate it as Republican-leaning due to Georgia's shift towards the GOP.

[ Parent ]
GA-08
Any explanation?

I'm calling it Likely D, with Leans D at worst.

Tough year for Dems, credible GOP opponent
GOP district at national level.  Also, black turnout will likely be down from 2008.  I think lean D is probably fair.  
[ Parent ]
Hrmm
All of that was known last time the rankings came out, with the exception of Scott's entry.

I'm just wondering if something has come out that I've missed.

[ Parent ]
I don't know
but Scott's entry and his primary win w/o a runoff (so no more intraparty fighting), I think justifies moving the race to Lean D.  

[ Parent ]
Hastings angry over POTUS' lack of support for Kendrick Meek

While Politico is still as useless as ever with their promotion of non-stories and beltway gossip as serious political reporting, I thought this quote from Rep. Alcee Hastings, regarding the president's purportedly tepid support of Rep. Kendrick Meek's run for the open Florida Senate seat:

"If they do not step up their support for Kendrick, then they cannot expect that I and my allies will support them in 2012," Hastings said, after describing the West Wing's treatment of Meek as "poor."

Is he for real? I'm sure the leader of the free world cares what Alcee Hastings thinks.

Also this slice of whatever from Rep. Hastings:

"President Obama is going to be on the ballot in 2012. If Kendrick Meek could win this election, then Obama's election is a slam dunk," Hastings said.

I do not understand this gentleman's logic at all. I mean, I'm probably more optimistic than most Democrats about November and I see no way whatsoever that Kendrick Meek can beat Crist or Rubio in a three-way race, especially after having to spend money to defeat that loser Jeff Greene. If this were a one on one fight in the general, he might have a shot.

One particularly infuriating part of this story is that the writer tries to shoehorn the Shirley Sherrod debacle into all this in order to advance the narrative that President Obama is somehow insensitive to African Americans.

The article I read
which I think was on Politico, also said that Meek and Hastings supported Hillary Clinton in the primaries, well beyond the point when she still had a realistic chance to win (or something; I'm paraphrasing from the article). So President Obama should care about their threats for exactly what reason?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Yeah, how the hell does a Meek win guarantee an Obama victory?
If Meek triumphs, it's probably with 35% of the vote, on the basis of moderate and liberal Democrats, both of which Obama already has in the bag.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Hastings is an idiot
While not trying to be all douchebaggy about this, but this is what you get when you allow people like Alcee Hastings in a caucus.  Typically most political organizations would not want an impeached Federal judge in their mists let alone having any sway.

He cannot have that much of an impact.  Obama won 83% of his district.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
He needs a real primary challenger
They're not just for blue dogs.
[ Parent ]
Exactly
I suspect most people who post on here are what I call good government voters regardless of their ideology.  This means they generally do not like corruption regardless of whose side it comes from.  If you are a good government Democrat, you should be opposed to people like Hastings and Rangel.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
I don't like Hastings
because he is not only corrupt but does nothing for his district or anyone else.

On the contrary, I didn't have a problem with Jack Murtha.

[ Parent ]
You're not being a douche
I agree that Hastings needs to go. I was pretty surprised when the Meek campaign put him in the web video that they posted here. I wouldn't brag about a Hastings endorsement.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
[ Parent ]
wow--now 18 tossup gov races
That must be some kind of record.
A large
majority of governorships changed parties in 2002, I wouldn't be surprised if it happened this year.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
the number of open seats
is a record IIRC
[ Parent ]
There are 24 open governorships this year.
Alabama - term limits
California - term limits
Colorado - retirement
Connecticut - retirement
Florida - running for Senate
Georgia - term limits
Hawaii - term limits
Kansas - retirement
Maine - term limits
Michigan - term limits
Minnesota - retirement
Nevada - lost primary
New Mexico - term limits
New York - retirement
Oklahoma - term limits
Oregon - term limits
Pennsylvania - term limits
Rhode Island - term limits
South Carolina - term limits
South Dakota - term limits
Tennessee - term limits
Vermont - retirement
Wisconsin - term limits
Wyoming - term limits

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Oops, Wisconsin should be retirement.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
SSP Updates 40 Race Ratings | 127 comments

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