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SSP Daily Digest: 7/15 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Thu Jul 15, 2010 at 8:14 AM EDT


  • CO-Sen: This story is from late last month, but it's very much worth reading. While an assistant U.S. Attorney a decade ago, Ken Buck was formally reprimanded for "bad-mouthing a felony case to defense lawyers representing Aurora gun dealers." In fact, he revealed confidential information - an unthinkable breach of attorney ethics - which may well have undermined the entire prosecution: Only one of the three defendants was convicted, and only of a misdemeanor. Buck's opponent, former LG Jane Norton, has been making an issue of this in radio ads. The craziest thing is that the convicted gun dealer, Greg Golyansky, showed up at a debate yesterday between the two candidates, and when the subject of Buck's reprimand came up, he jumped out of his seat and started screaming expletives at Norton. Oh, and Golyansky just happens to be a Buck donor. Weird, huh?
  • One unrelated note on the Dem side: Sen. Michael Bennett raised $1.26 million in the second quarter. No word on his cash-on-hand, though.

  • CT-Sen: The other day I wondered what Rob Simmons' plan was - after all, several reasonably high-profile folks were announcing their support for him, even though he wasn't actually, you know, running for office. It's starting to look like he might have a super-genius plan after all: running for office. Simmons spoke with Rick Green of the Hartford Courant, who concludes that "it's looking more and more like he will revive his dormant campaign for Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate." As Green says, stay tuned.
  • IL-Sen: When your integrity and honesty are called into question, stonewalling is pretty much exactly opposite the approach you want to take. Yet that's what Mark Kirk is doing, pulling a John Kasich when it comes to his military records. He says he won't release any more such records, claiming that he's already released "absolutely the most sensitive part" of his personnel record. But if that's the case, then why should he care about releasing the less-sensitive stuff?
  • NV-Sen: Handsome Harry Reid raised $2.4 million in Q2, according to Jon Ralston, and has $8.9 million cash-on-hand.
  • CO-Gov: After getting a day-long purple nurple, Scott McInnis is finally apologizing for the plagiarized articles he "wrote" for the Hasan Family Foundation, but he's still blaming the researcher who worked for him - and that guy says that McInnis was responsible. Big Mac still apparently hasn't said anything about the purloined Rocky Mountain News op-ed he pretended to pen in 1994, either - and as we relayed yesterday, his continued candidacy is looking very much in doubt.
  • SC-Gov: Nikki Haley outraised Dem Vincent Sheheen in the second quarter, $543K to $366K. But Haley's coffers were drained more quickly, thanks to her runoff, meaning Sheheen has more cash-on-hand, $262K to $183K. What's more, Sheheen's outraised the latest GOP belle of the ball for the cycle, $1.7 mil to $1.4 mil.
  • IA-03: The Des Moines Register says that Bill Clinton will be coming to town to do a $250-a-head fundraiser for Rep. Leonard Boswell later this month. The paper also mentions that the Big Dog will be swinging through Minnesota and Michigan on the same trip to help out other House candidates. Any word on who those might be?
  • MO-03: Republican Ed Martin, who has been semi-touted as a legit threat to Rep. Russ Carnahan, has been busy showing he's a good fit for the district... if that district were, say, Alabama's 1st CD. Get a load of this:
  • And that's one of the things that's most destructive about the growth of government is this taking away that freedom, the freedom, the ultimate freedom, to find your salvation, to get your salvation, and to find Christ for me and you, and I think that's one of the things we have to be very, very aware of that the Obama Administration and Congressman Carnahan are doing to us.

  • PA-11: Tarrance Group (R) for Lou Barletta (7/12-13, likely voters):
  • Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 37
    Lou Barletta (R): 56
    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    Barletta also has his first ad up, airing on broadcast and cable in the Scranton-Wilkes Barre market, but NWOTSOTB. His campaign says he's raised over $500K to date, which would mean he took in over $200K in the last quarter, based on his last FEC report.

  • SD-AL: Props to Nathan Gonzales for digging up this bit of info: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin's initial ad buy - for the spot where she touts her vote against healthcare reform - is just $10,000. As Nathan says, this makes it little more than a video press release.
  • TN-08: George Flinn, who had mostly avoided the firefight between Ron Kirkland and Steve Fincher in the GOP primary, is now wading in with negative TV ads and mailers accusing his opponents of being too close to Democrats. Flinn was likely goaded into this move by recent attacks from Kirkland's brother, Rob, who has hit Flinn for his ownership of a Memphis hip-hop station. NWOTSOTB, of course, but the primary is soon (Aug. 5), and Flinn has put a lot of his own money into his campaign.
  • Fundraising: Buncha links for you - you'll have to click `em all: AZ-08 | MD-01 | MS-01 | ND-AL | NY-13 | NY-14 | PA-17 (Ha ha!) | VA-02
  • Polltopia: Mark Blumenthal takes an in-depth look at SurveyUSA's recent experiments with combined landline-and-cellphone sampling. So far, we've seen little variation in the topline numbers in the two races SUSA has looked at in this manner so far: NC-Sen and WA-Sen. But Blumenthal goes deeper, looking at both how the pollster has approached this problem on a technical level, and what it means for the costs of polling. The whole post is worth a read.
  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 7/15 (Morning Edition)
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    Twitter is blocked in China
    what are the numbers for ND-AL and VA-02?

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    Here you go.
    ND-AL - Pomeroy raised $648K, spent $624K, and has $1.7MM CoH.

    VA-02 - Nye raised $326K, spent $162K, and has $1.3MM CoH.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    [ Parent ]
    Much appreciated, thank you!
    those are nice numbers, but wtf is with Pomeroy's burn rate? I'll be waiting to see what Berg and Rigell report.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    We may see a bump for Pomeroy
    Or at least we better, or else we're going to REALLY question what he's spending all that cash on.

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    Berg
    Raised 550k and had 750k on hand.  

    [ Parent ]
    where are you
    in china?

    i just was studying in jinan, shandong for the semester-- definitely can sympathize without twitter, youtube and facebook. though.. i am a bit more productive online when i'm there.. :)


    [ Parent ]
    I'm in Beijing
    I've heard of Jinan though! I took the train to Mt. Tai once and Jinan was the second-to-last stop. :D

    I can bypass the internet block but only during the daytime when I'm in a place with unreliable internet...then I come home to my reliable (mostly) internet, and the thing I use to bypass the block stops working. Blahh.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    I'm really starting to get annoyed
    With these private, internal polls.  Quite frankly I think they are all bogus.  I mean really, like I'm supposed to believe that Bobby Bright is 20+ up on Martha Roby, but that Paul Kanjorski and Bryan Lentz are trailing by 20+ against Lou Barletta and Patrick Meehan?  Just like I'm supposed to believe that Frank Kratovil and Tom Perriello are winning their races, and yet Steve Dreihaus and Debbie Halvorson, reps in friendlier districts, are DOA based on their most result poll results?  I mean really, and there have been other examples too along the line that have been quite outlandish too (Patrick Tiberi leading Marilyn Brown by 25 and Joseph Cao leading Cedric Richmond by 20?  Please.  Just stop.)

    The more I see these polls, the more I think I should simply exclude any internal polls from my house analysis and stick with public polls only.  I'd probably do better on gut feeling than by following these screwy internals anyhow.  

     

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


    Of the polls you mentioned
    Only the PA-7 one I find wrong, maybe LA-2. The rest I buy, especially the Bright poll which Roby said was the same as the numbers her camp had.

    The VA-5 poll for Periello was NOT an internal nor was the OH-1 poll, don't remember a MD-1 poll.

    26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


    [ Parent ]
    Slight Correction
    Even though I believe Bright will be OK, that internal poll is getting mythic status. Stephanie Bell said they were the same numbers, and although she is a Republican, at the time she had reason to downplay Roby's chances.

    That said, I think the internal polls give a best case scenario for the candidate who's paying for them. And should be viewed as such.


    [ Parent ]
    Two kinds of internal polls
    1) As user tallsy suggests, "a best case scenario for the candidate who's paying for them."

    2) Information primarily for internal campaign use, a foundation for GOTV planning.

    Internal polls from category 1 are far more frequently released. But some internal polls from category 2 also get leaked. Generally, good candidates need the most accurate possible information. Thus, polls from category 2 are at least as reliable as the best public polls by third parties.


    [ Parent ]
    As I said in a comment a few days ago, citing Chuck Todd......
    Chuck Todd said private polls are highly reliable, but not necessarily publicly-released private numbers.

    Private polling is "private" for good reason!  Campaigns on either side don't want us to know the full truth!

    And yes, campaigns NEED to have ACCURATE polling, they can't afford to pay for junk.

    Remember that ONLY candidates and party committees NEED accurate polling.  For the rest of us, it's just news and entertainment.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Entertainment for you, NEED for me
    You mean to say that with a note from my shrink, I could get accurate polling ;)

    [ Parent ]
    MI-Gov
    Yesterday's internal poll from Bouchard showing him tied is highly questionable as well.  

    [ Parent ]
    The OH-1 poll
    was most likely cooked by firedoglake because Jane Hamsher and co. were pmsing over Steve Driehaus's grandstanding over the abortion language in HCR.  Because of the timing of the poll (right after HCR's passage), who commissioned it (FDL), and the numbers (Chabot up 49-35), there's no doubt in my mind that poll was a complete travishamockery.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    But...
    do you really think he is winning?  

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    [ Parent ]
    No I don't really think Driehaus is ahead
    But to say that the guy is down 15 as an incumbent in a district with a DEMOCRATIC partisan lean, I think is a bit much.  Look, everybody is writing this seat off already, and given the positioning of the district it makes some sense because of the problem of minority turnout.  But Driehaus is a really strong campaigner and he's youthful and articulate as a speaker.  To think that Chabot is just going to blow him away is more than a bit presumptuous.  

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    maybe the anti-DC mood will hurt Chabot further
    He was certainly there much much longer than Dreihaus and their appearances reflect that.

    You know what's an interesting thought, the campaign against us and Obama is pretty much the same campaign Obama waged against them in 2008.  They just aren't using the word "hope" because most of us have none.


    [ Parent ]
    Being able for think that about every partisan poll...
    ...I understand not why you dislike these polls.

    A partisan poll many times give you the situation what the candidate wish you believe, or a better situation still. I think this is always a better reference than have nothing.

    I buy not some 15% or 20%. I would wish a partisan poll from democratic side for every of these races..


    [ Parent ]
    If you posted that on DailyKos
    you'd be HRed to oblivion. You're one of my favorite posters, so please take this in that spirit, but for whatever it's worth, I find this language unacceptably sexist:

    "pmsing over Steve Driehaus's grandstanding over the abortion language in HCR"

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    You know...
    Kanjorski is probably down (maybe not by this much) Remember, it's much more likely he would lose than Minnick or Edwards or Bright.

    I highly doubt this year's wave is going to start in R+20 districts and work its way down. In fact, I'm sure that won't happen.

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    [ Parent ]
    The most
    vulnerable incumbents are those sitting in R+5 to D+5 districts. They are more willing to take risks, extremely dependent on a noncommittal base, and are trying to strike a balance between the even representation of Republicans and Democrats. Bright? Minnick? They know that ID-01 and AL-02 are more conservative.

    Now obviously Kanjorski is losing. He was supposed to lose in a Democratic year last year, he is not a good Representative, and he is in a D+4 district with depressed Democratic turnout. The question is the margin.

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    [ Parent ]
    its definitely the swing districts, like always
    They swung hard for us in 2006 and 2008, now they'll swing back.  The Congresscritters in the really tough seats clearly have some saving grace or they wouldn't be where they are in the first place.

    [ Parent ]
    I think not the same

    When a Democratic incumbent has troubles in a R+6 or worse district, he is toast for a reelection. And then, the majority decide run not for the reelection. Cause of this, the majority of the incumbents in troubles are in districts with better rating.

    If im not wrong the majority of the democratic open seats are in the worst districts.


    [ Parent ]
    I'm not
    exactly sure what you are saying. The majority of the incumbents in trouble are in districts with a better rating? Yes.

    Bobby Bright and Walt Minnick haven't had problems.  

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    [ Parent ]
    AL-02
    One important thing to understand is that Bright, overall, is actually considered more conservative than Roby. She was one of his strongest supporters on the Montgomery City Council, so any attempts at attacking his record as Mayor will back fire.

    There's been some news out about her views on immigration that puts her to the left of Bright.

    It's the small things like that which will matter in AL-02.

    Also, as another poster mentioned, the other campaigns admitted the polling was true. Roby might not have mentioned it publicly, but there was plenty of behind the scenes discussions.

    It's impossible to paint these districts with a broad brush. Just because it has a certain lean does not spell doom (or victory) for an incumbent. We Southerners generally love our incumbents as well.

    AL-02 is very unique though as it was one of, if not the first, Southern seat to turn deep red decades ago.


    [ Parent ]
    Interesting info
    I have some experience in Southern politics (or I guess quasi-Southern since it was in Texas), and I agree that Southerners love incumbents.  And I think if Bright gets past Roby, and I think he will by a bigger margin than many expected, he will be entrenched in the area that he is in.

    The question is what the GOP will do to Bright in redistricting, if they control it (still holding out hope that we keep the AL House).  I see three options in order of likelihood:

    -Give Bright about the same district that he has, but with more SE Alabama rural territory and run a rural opponent (Bright's two opponents so far have been from Montgomery).  If that fails hope he switches parties some time.
    - Go really ambitious and try to draw Bright into a district including heavily straight-ticket GOP suburban Birmingham areas like Shelby Co.
    Realize that they won't ever beat Bright, and thus solidify his district by adding the rest of Montgomery Co and other areas so no other districts like AL3 are ever endangered.  The GOP might even hope (like they did with Barrow in GA-12 I think) that such a district might toss out Bright in a primary with a black candidate.

    AL-2 turned red over civil rights in 1964, along with four other seats in Alabama, one seat in Georgia, and one seat in Mississippi.  The reason why more seats in the Deep South didn't turn red that year was that the Dems were simply unopposed. Unlike the most of those seats, AL-2 stayed red, although from what I remember there were several serious challenges that nearly toppled the Repub.  


    [ Parent ]
    If Ed Martin Is a Convicted Christian
    Then he should not believe that the government can take away his salvation. Sometimes I wonder why fellow Christians insist on spreading falsehoods and over exaggerations about the faith. If they are true Christians they wouldn't be doing stuff like this, even for political expediency.

    Kinda awkward phrasing there
    at first I thought you meant convicted Christian as in, he's getting 25 to life for being a Christian...(although, the religious right probably wants us to believe that all Christians are persecuted...)

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Sorry 'Bout That
    I meant to say converted, or perhaps strong, Christian. I must have thought 'convicted' had another meaning describing one's convictions towards something.

    [ Parent ]
    I don't know that I would call Buck's disclosure
    an "unthinkable breach of attorney ethics." He was outside normal channels, to be sure, but prosecutors are supposed to provide defense attorneys with possible weaknesses of their case. Its unethical not to do so, and they are encouraged to favor broad over narrow disclosure, even when it is not constitutionally required. Now, are they supposed to disclose internal discussions to state senators? Probably not. But its an awful fine line if the internal documents disclose tangible information that was not otherwise provided.

    Yeah, I'm kind of "meh" about this Buck "scandal" as well
    I think Buck will be hurt more by his ultra-conservative stands than this.  

    [ Parent ]
    That's not right
    The prosecution is not required to tell the defense about "weaknesses". However, it is obligated to turn over exculpatory evidence.

    [ Parent ]
    If the documents are the only ones in existence that identify facts...
    , not legal theories, or appraisals of defensive openings, that redound to the defendant's benefit, then the fact that it involves work-product doesn;t protect it. More to the point, it isn't a breach of ethics. Prosecutors are not ordinary parties to litigation and don't owe their client (the gov't) the same duties of confidentiality as other attorneys. And the SCOTUS in Kyles v. Whitley has cautioned them to resolve doubtful questions in favor of disclosure. See Kyles, 514. U.S. 419, 439 (1995).

    The circumstances don't suggest this to have been Buck's motivation, and it wasn't even a direct disclosure to the defense, but rather to a 3rd party with little or no business in the matter, likely for political gain. But "breach of confidence" and "ethics violation" is not the right frame here. I don't like it.  


    [ Parent ]
    I'm really baffled by the polling on the GA-Gov (R) race
    In the last week, I've now seen polling showing Handel crushing, showing Oxendine crushing, and now one showing Deal and Handel tied with Oxendine in third. This one is shaping up to be a barnburner for part 1 of the primary.

    Also, I think it was Geraghty that had a pretty good post up on the Buck allegations awhile back. I'll try to find it.


    I want Oxendine to win
    Simply because I want to see more 5 minute online ads in the tenor of the "Ox versus the Rat" ad his camp made.  That things was pure insanity.

    Its starting to look more and more like Barnes comeback could be come real.  I question how big the immigration thing will become in Georgia.  It could becoem huge (think the issue of the state flag when Perdue beat Barnes).  

    Has Georgia become more aware of its view from the outside since ths state flag fiasco in the 2002 campaign.

    On the plus side, if all these warm weather states keep plugging away with anti-immigration plans, the major prfoessional sports and NCAA will steer clear of them for all-star/playoff events.  Maybe Philly will get an NCAA bowl gmae or even host the Super Bowl???


    [ Parent ]
    Rasmussen finally showing balls in a primary in GA-Gov(R)!......
    They actually polled it, and they've got Handel and Deal tied at 25 with Oxendine back at 20.  That puts them directly at odds with Mason-Dixon who has Oxendine in front, Handel 2nd, and Deal clearly 3rd.

    The majority of polling I've seen over time has had Oxendine clearly in 1st, and at least two of the most recent polls say the same.  But one has a 1st place tie with Oxendine and Handel, another I think shows Handel up, and now Rasmussen has Deal in the thick of it tied for 1st.

    So we're going to see who's right, for once with a lot of variance in polling results to test against the impending reality.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Tim Holden
    Boy this guy is the poster child for "candidates matter" as well as serving your district and voting the will of who elects you.  I know he's not a favorite on this site but jeez that man wins in even the hardest of cycles and he is about as entrenched as a Dem in a D+25 district.

    Looks like Scott Lee Gohen is on the ballot for IL-GOV
    http://mystateline.com/fulltex...

    I'm guessing he gets at most 1-2%.


    Agreed
    I think I've said this before, but his candidacy reminds me of Betsy McCaughey's failed NY-Gov run in '98, after George Pataki booted her from the GOP ticket. She ran on the Liberal Party line and got 2%.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    I assume Scott Lee Cohen
    is doing this because he wants revenge on Quinn & Madigan in particular, and to screw IL Democrats in general.

    But even that 1-2% you're speculating could be important in a tight tossup race if he draws from Quinn.
    Though I'm not sure who that 1-2% constituency might be: steroid-using wife-abusing pawnbrokers? Strange.


    [ Parent ]
    Why didn't he just refuse to drop out in the first place?


    [ Parent ]
    Good question. Who knows...
    but IIRC Cohen made his withdrawal announcement on Super Bowl Sunday at a Super Bowl party. Maybe Dem party operatives got him liquored-up while they were twisting his arm...

    [ Parent ]
    PA-17
    Remember, at this point in the 2006 cycle, Carol Shea-Porter had less than 20k on hand.  

    NH had...
    a 4 person primary in September 2006.  Thus i don't think these situationsa are remotely comparable.  The repub candidate in PA-17 won his primary back in May.

    [ Parent ]
    Rogers (R) in trouble?
    Found this at dailykos, but could Rogers be in trouble in this Republican district? I know it used to be fairly Democartic at the state level.

    Rogers (R-Inc) 52%
    Holbert(D) 45%
    2% undecided

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

    21, Male, Gay, Dem, Born: AR-04 ;  Current Residence: FL-02


    Need verification of that poll by Mason-Dixon
    I can't find any link which is weird. And Mason-Dixon doesn't typically poll congressional races unless they're on a state level.

    [ Parent ]
    Agree that verification is needed, but on what M-D polls, they do whatever...
    ...they get paid to poll.  That is, indeed, almost always Senate, Governor, and Presidential, but they'll poll anything they get paid to do.

    Keep in mind M-D's political polling clients are media outlets, mostly newspapers.  If a media outlet wants to ante up to have M-D poll a House race, they'll do it.  It's just rarely done because live caller polls as M-D conducts are much more expensive than SUSA's robocall polls, and there's not news audience interest in individual House races as there is in Senate and Governor's races.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    True, but I have to say there's something suspicious about this...
    It's a Mason-Dixon poll done supposedly on June 1st and we're just hearing about it now?

    Seems more likley to have been some sort of mislabeled internal, with all the caveats.  


    [ Parent ]
    Gabby Giffords used to date her opponent!
    Thats...odd! Did anyone know that? http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

    I didn't
    Though she was in kindergarden with Tim Bee.

    Also Mike Quigley used to date Sara Feigenholtz.  

    21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



    [ Parent ]
    And
    Her, Tim Bee, and Paton all went to high school together.  

    [ Parent ]
    McInnis Supporter Uses Edwin Edwards words to defend McInnis
    Despite a very bad week of campaign coverage, Baisley alluded to the infamous words of former Louisiana Gov. Edwin Edwards, who predicted it would take a catastrophic sex scandal to bring him down, and forecasted that McInnis would survive.

    "This is not a dead woman or live boy issue, it was plagiarism years ago that didn't have an enormous effect on anybody's lives," Baisley said. "In a week or so, once it's played out, it could look different. I don't expect him to step down."

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/s...
    Not exactly plagiarism, just kinda funny, to a lonely me anyway. What, is today the SSP Convention that no one told me about? I'm lonely!!


    Glimmer of hope in macroenvironment: initial jobless claims WAAAAAY down!......
    Initial unemployment compensation claims dropped a stunning 29K from the previous week, now down to a 2-year low of 429K.  That comes after the preceding week saw a plenty big-in-its-own-right drop of 17K.  That's a whopping drop of 46,000 initial claims in 2 weeks!

    I'm hoping and guessing the July job growth numbers are going to be good.  And if we have any hope of reversing public opinion by early November we NEED that to be the case.  If we can get good job growth in July and again in August and September, I think public confidence will turn for real.  We'll still lose a lot of seats, but we'll be much more likely to keep the House.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    I'm hopeful too, but let's hold off on excitement just yet
    From WSJ:

    "But several economists downplayed the decline, noting that it likely arose in part because some manufacturers chose to skip their normal summer shutdowns as they rebuild inventories."


    [ Parent ]
    And "rebuilding inventories" should be a good sign
    IF (and that's a big if) US manufacturers know what they're doing.

    (i.e. if they have good reason to believe that spending is coming back)


    [ Parent ]
    Well 2 things, 1st I don't see why that's not a positive, and 2nd the official numbers are...
    ...seasonally adjusted, so I wonder how that interacts with delayed summer shutdowns?

    That they're delayed to build up inventory doesn't on its face tell me they're not good news.  Isn't that good news that inventory has fallen to where firms have to keep people employed?

    Whatever reason people are kept employed in indefinite (as opposed to temporary) jobs is a good sign, no?

    I don't mean to pretend to know more than economists, because I don't, and if the consensus is that the week's claims numbers are artificially depressed in a way that belittles their value as a sign of recovery, I'm not in a position to argue.  I am in fact a lawyer who does unemployment compensation work professionally, and actually I do have a bachelor's degree in economics, but I don't pretend to be an expert.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Oh, and more big macroenvironmental news: OIL LEAK CAPPED!!!......
    You've all probably seen it, and I guess they're not done testing yet, but it's looking pretty good.  If they really stop it altogether, that's another turn of the corner on the oil spill to let us put this behind us and erase one thing weighing down public morale.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    On that, we can agree on!


    [ Parent ]

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