Not particularly shocking

District is too Republican in this environment. Same thing in TX-10.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 20:53:28 PM UTC

Not concerned about MN-06

Most of the estimates for Minnesota show them losing a seat after the next census.  Guess which seat the heavily Democratic State House and Senate will gerrymander into non-existence

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by: TXMichael @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 20:53:59 PM UTC

Yup

The word is she will get moved into the MN-04 (Betty McCollum's district).  She'd have to move into John Kline's district in the MN-02 and go up against an established incumbent whose well-respected in his district if she wanted to stay in Congress.

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by: DFLer @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 22:48:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Won't she just take on Klobuchar?

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 23:06:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

She could

but I really don't think she's stupid enought to think she could win statewide, which is why she passed on the Governor's race.  If she ran against Klobuchar she'd be eaten for breakfast.

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by: DFLer @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 00:08:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Putting her in McCollum's district is the most likely scenario

Ramsey County (St Paul+ burbs) was 510k pop. in 2000 (if I remember my redistricting stuff correctly) and has since shrunk to 490k.  So CD4 is shrinking in population and it will need to pick more elsewhere.  And ta-da!, Bachmann's suburb directly borders CD4.  (And yes, I am coining the !, ; make it a part of your regular grammar and writing style.)

If MN loses a seat, CD4 will be forced to expand heavily and pick up nearly 60k-80k or so population and will almost assuredly pick up Bachmann's suburb.  If it's an 8 seat map, there is much more choice with what where we could expand CD4 and since we have rock solid DFL majorities, guess where we will expand.

What makes Bachmann even more if an idiot and an embarrassment as a political representative, she moved to a location which only made it easier to get rid of her!  She used to live about 30 minutes away from St Paul in a city bordering WI, a location much less sensible to include into CD4.  The dumb ass moves to where she lives within 10 minutes of dtown St Paul and where it almost wouldnt make sense to not include her with McCollum due to geography.

If you want to check out the cities, look up St. Paul, MN where CD4's base is.  Bachmann used to live in Stillwater, MN but now lives in Woodbury, MN.  Although if she still lived in Stillwater, putting her into CD8 with Oberstar would've been another very solid option as it needs to expand somewhere and south is pretty much the only sensible way to go.

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by: Andrew @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 01:28:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is essentially my opinion

Either Clark manages to take her out in 2010 or we make it so she has no shot at a seat in 2012.  She will not be a Congresswoman in 2013, period.  The state party will not allow it.  Hell, Id be willing to bet that most DFLers would be willing to even make a total swing seat the GOP has a shot at, there is just no way we will allow Bachmann to continually be re-elected.

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by: Andrew @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 00:58:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

besides

82% have no opinon on Reed, 68% on Clark

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by: greenscale @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 21:02:12 PM UTC

Ah, perfect

These are the numbers I wanted to know and didnt even need to click the link to find!

What's interesting is that even with Reed having 14% lower no opinion, which at this stage of the game can really just reflect name rec., both poll 37%.  Pretty much means our base in this district is 37%, which is pretty damn shitty for a seat we want to win but very realistic for such a Republican district.

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by: Andrew @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 00:54:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bachmann is more of a comedy act

She will probably do less damage in the US Congress than she would if she was a FOX news contributor.  I even imagine that FOX News would love to hire her and her extremist positions and give her her own show.  Or better yet, they might create a new version of Hannity and Colmes with their own version of "Beck and Bachmann".  They can provide the audience with the nutty version and the nuttier version of politics.

I agree with another post that Bachmann's district may cease to exist in 2012.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 21:10:28 PM UTC

Im still trying to understand

How she was a Democrat once. And how she can say her views are the same now as they were then. Maybe if she were a deep deep deep south dixicrat...but a MN DFLer? Doesnt add up. I say shes lying and she was alot less conservative in those days. Didnt she also support Mondale in 84? If so, that is an even bigger reason why she had to be.  

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 22:37:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rick Perry, another ex-Democrat

And who was even a Democratic state senator for a period of time. Now also one of the most outspoken conservative Republicans. I can even see Bachmann campaigning for him (even though it wouldnt really help besides maybe some fundraising in DC). Thatd be something.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 22:42:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I doubt she supported Mondale

She switched to the GOP in 1980, met her husband on the Carter campaign in 1976.

And I dunno.  She is clearly a very dim, stupid individual who has no idea what is really going on in the country so I absolutely can see her keeping her ideology and switching parties.  She's too stupid or ignorant to understand any of it!

Plus, her political ideology has very little do it seems with actual politics and more about her religious upbringing.  1980 was also the same time the religious right came into being and Catholics started shift from being solidly Democrat to more for the Republicans.  She's not Catholic but I think the whole shift of those who are religious and their voting habits probably speaks more to her sitaution.  

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by: Andrew @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 00:49:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah youre probably right about Mondale

If she switched in 80. and after thinking about it maybe its not too much of a stretch to think she was a DFLer but with the same views as today. As wasnt the GOP, back in those days, almost non-existent in MN? Its kind of like an ultra conservative, far right winger being a Dixiecrat in the south up until the 80s. Not just because of tradition but also because what else is there to join??

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 06:17:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

My late grandma is a good example

When she lived in a TX border county she ran for a local political office as a Democrat because, she said, 'its the only way someone gets elected'. No, Bachmann wasnt a politician then but its kinda the same thing...if the MN DFL is all there is then what else is there to join if you want to 'feel a part of a political party'?

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 06:19:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hmm... well, keep in mind...

in 1976, Jimmy Carter did espouse a lot of evangelical themes.  That may have attracted Bachmann and her husband to his campaign.  Then once Reagan came on the scene with the Religious Right, well there she went.

But this is just speculation on my part.

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by: BruinKid @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 11:02:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Looks Like...

Revenge of the Teabaggers!

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 21:27:09 PM UTC

Uh-oh, Clark

Clark must not be fundraising well if she had to sell an "r" from her first name.   :)

But seriously, Bachmann's like the conductor of the train to Crazytown. I really kinda want to see where she'll go...and better yet, where she'll try to take the GOP.

For that reason, a Bachmann win would not be the most upsetting loss of the 2010 cycle, methinks.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

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by: arealmlc @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 21:30:58 PM UTC

Not the worst thing to happen

But, a Clark win would mean that either, a) it would be easier to make Kline's district uber-red by giving it Bachmann's base (Sherburne, Wright) or b) creatively trying to dislodge said remaining GOPer for an 8-0 delegation.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

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by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 22:04:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

8-0 is pretty unrealistic

The best we could do would be to somehow draw a map where Bachmann would either have to face off against Kline in a primary or (better yet and more realistically) move her into Betty McCollum's district and watch her either get torn a new one or be forced to move into Kline's district and go down for being a carpetbagger.

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by: DFLer @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 22:44:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

8-0 is actually realistic

but is an ugly map.  I had Minneapolis go to Wright County and expand that way a bit, St Paul plus Carver and Scott County exurbs.

I've got a much better 7/0 map actually that I need to finish up and post that almost creates my dream DFL delegation, Walz, Clark, Bonoff, McCollum, Ellison, Peterson, Oberstar, Klobuchar, and Franken.  It's totally possible, save for Bonoff who doesnt live in an ideal suburb to make a district for.  The current CD3 that is focused on western suburbs needs to be revised.  A southern and NW CD is a lot better for Democrats, which leaves out Bonoff.

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by: Andrew @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 01:38:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

PPP's second dopiest poll of the year

There isn't a morsel of anything interesting here.  

The only time to poll Bachman is one month before the election, when in the heat of battle her mouth runs away from her brain (assuming there is one).

This is a Republican district, and the Republican is ahead eleven months out.  Gee, stop the presses.

PPP needs to follow the lead of Rasmussen and do some more serious polling, and less of these sideshows.

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by: tommypaine @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 23:19:12 PM UTC

One thing i can believe in a poll with her

Is if it says shes recognized by almost all her voters. With her big mouth and attention hawking ways shes probably just as well known, in her district, as MN's senators. Now why they like her...thats something i dont get. This isnt a loony district i dont think.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 06:23:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

MN redistricting resulted in some ridiculous districts

We had a GOP state house, a DFL state senate, and an Ind. governor so it went to the courts naturally.

The courts wanted to make more competitive districts as the DFL had a 6/2 delegation for quite some time just before redistricting, and the courts overkilled it.  They created a whole new MN-6 that takes in half of the exurbs of Minneapolis/St Paul while combining them with a lot of suburbs that have rapidly shifted to Team Blue.  These exurban cities are extremely outside of the mainstream political views of MN and if you ignore the accent and the cold, you probably couldnt tell these exurbs apart from areas in the South.

Moved from TX-22 where I had Delay to the exurbs in MN-6 where I got Bachmann, making my parents probably the only people in the country to have voted for the two biggest douche bags to grace Congress this decade.

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by: Andrew @ Thu Dec 24, 2009 at 01:42:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I also live in TX-22

But on the other side of DeLay's 'home' (am in SE Houston burbs but hes from the SW burbs).I have no personal dislike of DeLay as he really helped my mother out with a constituent service...but ideologically hes way to my right and i dont like how he played politics. Not to mention the ethical scandals. But even this hard right district soured on him. He would have lost re-election had he ran in Nov. 06 against Lampson. Even though he had yet to be convicted. The district may be pretty conservative but we dont seem to tolerate corruption at all. He was really vilified here because of the scandal.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Thu Dec 24, 2009 at 08:44:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

And some good news perhaps for Bill White

My staunch conservative Republican mother (who even has a picture of Pres. George W. Bush on her wall and doesnt like the Democratic Party at all) even really likes Bill White. She thinks hes conservative and has done a very good job. But she also likes Perry. She doesnt dislike, but also isnt impressed with KBH. If she wins the primary i wonder if shed vote for White. So if my mother really likes White...thats a pretty good sign for his campaign.  

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Thu Dec 24, 2009 at 08:47:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

She is ridiculous

I recently got CQ's Politics in America as a gift and they described how she decided to switch parties. Her reason makes no sense to me, but who knows? Here is what the book said about Bachmann's switch:

After working for Jimmy Carter's 1976 campaign, Bachmann made her first trek to Washington to attend Carter's inaugural. While reading Gore Vidal's "Burr" during the train ride home, she realized she was no longer a Democrat. She said she thought the book-a novel about Aaron Burr, a Revolutionary War hero and suspected traitor-was mocking the founding fathers.

Does anyone understand that reasoning?

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by: possumtracker1991 @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 00:21:30 AM UTC

Dont bother trying to figure it out

That woman doesnt work in terms of reason and logic....

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by: Andrew @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 00:51:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

We'll see what happens!

Clark's only chance is to remind voters that they are represented by a total wing nut and to convince those voters to vote for her instead of Bachmann.

This is deeply compounded with the problem that MN voters will give their vote to the Independence Party when we wont do like either candidate.  I had this conversation with my parents.  "You two arent going to vote Bachmann this year are you?"  "ABSOLUTELY NOT!"  "You going to vote for the DFL Tinklenberg then?"  "Nah, we'll just vote Independent."

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by: Andrew @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 01:42:43 AM UTC

oh and to more explain my point, as Tommypaine says upthread

the time to remind voters of Bachmann's ridiculousness is at the end of the campaign season through tv ads, not when it's just under a year out.

I will say that once the campaigning gets going and people are reminded of the nut they have for a Congresswoman, those numbers will go down, particularly with independent voters.  If Clark is going to win. its going to be on the back of those voters and them supporting Bachmann with 51% of their vote is not going to do it whatsoever.

My prediction is this will be within 10% either way.  It just comes down to if Clark can manage to convince independent voters to not support Bachmann and to support her instead of just throw their vote away to the Ind. Party.

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by: Andrew @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 01:46:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Speaking of Independent

What is the likelihood of Reed going independent and screwing the DFL yet again if she isn't nominated?  Last I heard, the chances were pretty good.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

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by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 03:29:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

If she is promising to run in the DFL primary

then it's none.  She doesnt seem likely to go Independence at all as she's already totally discounted the DFL endorsement and has already said she'd run in the DFL primary.  And in Minnesota you cant run in both the DFL and Independence Party primary.  Her rhetoric has put her locked into trying to get the DFL ballot line in the November general election so her going Independent, according to her rhetoric is not going to happen.

I dont know the filing deadlines but it is conceivable that she has now promised to run in the DFL primary, loses the DFL endorsement big time (she is going to), which causes her to realize she has no room to win anything within the DFL (she has none) and decides to run in the Independence Party primary and is on that line of the ballot.  But,  her rhetoric boxes her out of this option.  

IIRC, her email announcing that she'll be in this to the primary regardless talked about the need to move beyond labels like DFL, GOP, and Ind. and get down to being able to represent CD6 in a independent manner, which reflects the district and needing to achieve that through uniting against Bachmann and getting rid of her.

And like Ive said before, us DFLers are extremely bitter off the Independence Party, if Reed had felt this way before, why didnt she want to unite with us against Pawlenty.  And Pawlenty running for President only makes us more resentful of folks like Reed who enable the Ind. Party because now we are stuck with a governor who is governing simply in a manner to curry favor with the national GOP, and we are far far far FAAAAAAAAARRRRRRR from an ideology resembling the national GOP.  Or least a national GOP that appeases tea baggers like he is.

Our biggest worry would be Reed realizing this, running as an Independent, and really screwing us over with her good fundraising and campaigning throughout the district, resulting in a good showing in a 3-way race.  But like I've said, her rhetoric has largely been aimed at, lets do this together and get rid of this monster.

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by: Andrew @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 04:43:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Itd make more sense to vote Indy

If it were competitive and they had a real shot at winning. Such as Ventura's campaign. But indies still arent competitive there, even if they are more accepted than indy challengers in other states (save VT).

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 06:27:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]