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SSP Daily Digest: 6/24 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Thu Jun 24, 2010 at 8:08 AM EDT


  • Netroots Nation: James, Crisitunity, and I will all be doing a Q&A panel on the 2010 elections at Netroots Nation, along with the horserace folks at Daily Kos. So if you were on the fence about coming to the annual online progressive confab, now you have no excuse to miss it! Also, the special hotel rate for the convention is only available through Monday, June 28th, so book now.

  • CA-Sen: To give you a sense of how meaningless most of Moose Lady's endorsements are, she's visiting California this week, but isn't doing any events with Mama Grizz Carly. (BTW, would this make Todd "Baby Daddy Grizzly"?)

  • IA-Gov: Bob Vander Plaats will go on a local radio show either tonight or tomorrow (it's not clear), the first time he'll be speaking in public since losing the gubernatorial primary. Cat fud lovers (such as myself) are, of course, hoping he'll announce plans to run as an independent.

  • MI-Gov: There is some crazy-ass shit going on in the Michigan gubernatorial primary. AG Mike Cox is claiming that four unaired TV ads were "stolen" from his campaign and uploaded by parties unknown to YouTube. They've since been taken down, but accounts of them indicate that they were designed to push back against mysterious anti-Cox radio ads that resurfaced recently, alleging that Cox helped cover up an out-of-control party at the Detroit mayor's mansion in 2002, which helped lead to the downfall of then-mayor Kwame Kilpatrick. (Incidentally, Kilpatrick - who is currently in jail - was just indicted on another 19 fraud-related counts yesterday.)

  • MA-10: Former Quincy, Mass. mayor and former Democrat James Sheets says he's going to run as an independent for the seat left open by retiring Rep. Bill Delahunt. Sheets must figure that Tim Cahill's less-than-glorious Dem-turned-indie run for governor doesn't hold any lessons for him. In any case, Sheets is not exactly a fresh face - he's 74, and served as mayor for six terms, before getting turfed almost a decade ago. Still, this probably doesn't help Democrats.

  • MD-01: Been a while since we saw one of these: A Democratic incumbent releasing an internal showing him in the lead. A Garin-Hart-Yang poll has Rep. Frank Kratovil up 44-39 over retread Andy Harris. And as the WaPo reminds us, Harris doesn't have the GOP primary to himself: richie rich Rob Fisher is already on the air with TV ads and pledges to stay up through the September primary.

  • NY-13: Wow - all that sturm and drang ends with a whimper. Stephen Harrison, the 2006 Dem nominee for the 13th CD, had made some noise several months ago about challenging Rep. Mike McMahon in the primary (as he had in 2008) after the incumbent voted against healthcare reform. But now Harrison has endorsed McMahon, all but ensuring the only real fight here will be in November.

    • Meanwhile, on the GOP side, Michael Allegretti told Politico in an interview that he considers Vito Fossella a "good example for anyone aspiring to office on Staten Island and Brooklyn." There's some weird tribal/cultural thing going on in this race, and I just don't get why the Staten Island Republican establishment has such a fetish for a guy with multiple families and a drunk-driving conviction. Michael Grimm seems like a perfectly good candidate, yet it's almost like professing loyalty to Fossella is a litmus test here. So very strange.

  • NY-20: Scott Murphy secured the backing of the Working Families Party, which means he'll have their ballot line in November. He previously won the Independence Party's endorsement, so he'll be on three different ballot lines this fall (Rows A, C, and E). Recall that in last year's special election, Murphy won by just 726 votes - but took 3,839 votes on the WFP line.

  • CA-SD-15: It turns out there might not be a runoff for this seat after all. Republican Sam Blakeslee's election-night vote count stood at 49.7%, just shy of the 50%+1 needed to win the seat outright. He may yet do that, since there are some 15,000 uncounted mail-in ballots, and apparently most of them are in GOP-friendly territory.

  • Club for Growth: John McArdle in CQ notes that the Club for Growth has been celebrating their recent string of primary successes - but also notes that the group is taking a more "Republican-friendly" approach this cycle by targeting only GOP-held open seats. "Moderate" Rep. Steve LaTourette is a bit happier with this approach, but says: "If we secure the majority in November I'm sure we can get back to the Spanish Inquisition and continue purging our party by fire." Failed ex-NRCC chair Tom Cole, meanwhile, is delighted that the Club's influence is still helping to sabotage his party, saying: "Members realize they have to be much more consistently conservative then they have been in the past and that's a good thing."
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    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 6/24 (Morning Edition)
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    SSP Daily Digest: 6/24 (Morning Edition) | 68 comments
    well I guess the lesson here is
    don't put too much stock in internal polls.  

    How could we be winning in MD-1, yet be losing in places like IL-11, FL-2, and barely leading in places like WV-3 and CA-11?  

    I think what I'm going to have to do is assign 5-10% bias on either side for both democratic and republican internal polls and wait for public polling to corroborate internal findings.  Either that, or keep making calls merely by gut feeling, which is what I've been doing to this point anyway.  

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    I was saying a year ago that Kratovil might be stronger than people realize......
    I always liked to juxtapose Kratovil with Perriello, believing that Kratovil of the two was in a stronger position in 2010.

    The thing is, Obama's MD-01 performance matched Gore's and was only 4 points better than Kerry's.  Obama got only 40% here.  There is no huge black or other nonwhite population that helped Kratovil get over the hump last time.  There is no large college student population that showed up for Obama won't turn out in a midterm.  Kratovil benefited a little from a broad anti-Republican environment, but Obama's performance shows that was very muted in MD-01.

    Kratovil's win was overwhelmingly based on the particular candidates.  Kratovil was and is an uncommonly good fit for the district, and Harris is an uncommonly bad fit.  Harris is both ideologically extreme and at least as importantly from the "wrong" part of the district geographically, meaning he's not from the dominant Eastern Shore, while Kratovil is.

    I always predicted that even in a bad year Kratovil might just survive, if the Republicans were stupid enough to re-nominate Harris.

    I actually fear that this rich self-funder might beat Harris in the primary, because then Kratovil is worse off.  If Kratovil gets Harris again, he's got a better shot at reelection than people realize.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Um.... just look at 2006/2008.
    Who survived? Dave Reichert, Mark Kirk, Mike Castle, who knew how to take a liberal vote from time to time. (These districts have PVI's over D + 5) They also had the personal popularity.

    Who didn't? Those in the R+1 to R+5 who were counting on a Republican base (who was depressed in 2008) to come out and give them victory and aren't used to depending on Democrats & Independents. These are the people who are willing to take risks on key votes.

    Obviously there are other circumstances which doesn't make this universal (corrupt incumbents )

    But if you apply this to the Democrats in 2010, you'll see Bobby Bright, Walt Minnick, and Frank Kratovil winning. Speaking of which, this is why Gene Taylor survived a deep Republican district since 1989.  

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    [ Parent ]
    I just disagree about democratic internal polls

    What is the basis for republican enthusiasm? Just the internal polls, and the pro-republican pollster's polls.

    I think we must not bash the democratic internal polls. I think more democrats must follow the way what Kratovil and Wyden use for keep the numbers in his own races in the right margins.

    Then, my welcome to Kratovil's internal poll. I wish many democratic internal polls. If we have only neutral polls and pro-republican polls we will take a biased opinion.

    [ Parent ]
    Isn't MA-10 already on the endangered list?
    It's already only D+5, and a significant D indy probably brings that down to maybe D+2.

    I hope the D candidate got schooled at someplace amenable to working class residents, like BC.

    Bill Keating
    did indeed go to BC. (and worked his way through college according to his site)

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    Sheets May Help
    He was a ConservaDem, and he'll probably only affect the race in Quincy, where the Republican candidate needs to peel off Indies.

    OTOH, I think this is a race very susceptible to the economy (against my general opinion that people's views on the economy are set) because it's an open seat and has voters who were "expecting" a reasonably strong recovery this year.

    [ Parent ]
    I never did say in that one thread
    That I think it seems very logical that people's opinions are pretty set on the economy and that I agreed.  Nothing outside of a major change is going to change people from thinking it sucks.   I also think that may be the larger sentiment and reflect more than just the economy; everything just sucks right now in this country and it's time to clean house, again, because apparently nobody can fix anything.  That's something we really need to keep in mind; so we get thrown out in 2010, the GOP got their asses kicked in 2006 and 2008 so its not like the American people know what they want anyway.  They're just running arounds like chickens with their heads cut-off, "Who can fix this?  Didnt I already try you?."

    It's really hard, even as a liberal, to sit down and go through all the things going right with this country now with Democrats in charge.  But do I blame them, hell fucking no!  I blame Bush!  And I for one hope the Democrats use Bush in the 2010 election.  People cant have forgotten 2001-2008 that quickly and a minute long ad that spends the first 30 minutes going over how the Democrats inherited a mess the GOP caused and the second 30 seconds going over how we've already corrected their failures with the economy no longer free-falling, two wars finally having some closure and a strategy to get us there, ending harmful deregulation, etc.

    The regulation angle is one to really work and regulation bills are ones we can pass lickety-split in these times.  Why isnt there a bill going through Congress about regulating oil companies now that lack of regulation seems to have been the problem?  And where is Obama to explain to the American people that deficit spending is a must right now?  His gift as a politician is his ability to speak, why has he waited longer than any modern US president to do a Presidential Address on tv?  Maybe I should cut him slack though, he is busy being President and all.

    [ Parent ]
    MI-Gov
    The ad theft thing is really strange. A lot of people have speculated that the campaign released the ads themselves, which almost makes sense. The ads (defensive ones) get out there and in circulation, and the campaign gets some sympathetic press out of it. Only thing that makes me question that is that the YouTube account also posted video of internal polling sheets on Kwame and other issues, which wouldn't make sense to disclose if it were some kind of skullduggery.
    If anyone
    wants exact numbers to where the yet to be counted votes in CA SD-15 lie, the list is here. And the math is brutal for Laird, I don't see him holding Blakeslee below 50%+1 who's edged up to 49.8% now.

    http://www.sos.ca.gov/election...

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    Meh.
    Even if Laird somehow forced a "runoff," I doubt much would change.

    This is just a big disaster. Hopefully we'll do better in Jeff Denham's district, but I think even if we pick that one up while losing this one we still need one more for 2/3?

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

    [ Parent ]
    I think we could be in big trouble
    in the statewide races in California (except Senator).  If we lose handily to a right-wing oil company shill in a district which Obama won by more than 20%, I can't say that I'm optimistic about beating Meg Whitman, Maldonado, or Cooley this November.  
    [ Parent ]
    More reasons to not move to that sinking ship
    If I somehow find a job there or something.
    [ Parent ]
    Special elections, people
    Special elections are sound and fury and crappy turnout, signifying nothing. Well, at least, nothing in terms of how the general election is going to turn out.  

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
    [ Parent ]
    Don't say that...
    A lot of us are relying on the PA-12 special election to give us hope for the fall.

    (but I get your point)  

    [ Parent ]
    It should give us hope, actually
    The problem with this special election is that it wasn't held in conjunction with any other votes. People had to show up specifically for this race... that always makes it a tough slog on turnout, especially in California, with its fractured and expensive media markets.

    Remember, we not only have all those big races (Senate, Gov, LG, AG) and a few competitive congressional ones, but we'll have turnout-boosting propositions on the ballot in November, too....including marijuana legalization. That's the type of prop that will bring out all sorts of people who don't normally vote.  

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

    [ Parent ]
    This district becomes winnable
    in 2012 after redistricting, and in a Presidential year.

    [ Parent ]
    And
    if "Santa Cruz liberal" Laird did as well as "San Luis Obispo moderate" Peg Pinard in 2004 (lost to Maldo by 10) then that means the goal posts have shifted leftward, so I don't feel as pessimistic about this fall, even without things like the marijuana amendment.

    And as I said earlier, I can't wait to see if my theory that California has just become too Democratic for even a moderate Republican to win barring unusual circumstances holds this fall, especially in the LG and AG races. Remember, quasi-incumbent Secretary of State Bruce McPherson, who also represented Maldonado/Blakeslee country in the legislature prior to those two, was considered a moderate and even in 2006 still couldn't win.

    My blog
    Twitter
    Scribd
    28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

    [ Parent ]
    maybe some people vote for Blakeslee

    because they wish not a democratic supermajority of 2/3.

    I'm not more pessimistic after this election, but I think A Maldonado should not be approved as Lieutenant Governor.

    [ Parent ]
    To repeat again, this is a gerrymandered _Republican_ district
    We are supposed to lose here.

    I know people aren't from california, but this guy goes around calling himself a "green Republican".  he'll likely be the most left Republican in the state Senate.

    And he's won a seat heavily dummymandered to favor a Republican.

    [ Parent ]
    Well
    I don't see why we are supposed to lose here, the district includes all of Santa Cruz and Monterey, which are heavily liberal and Democratic.  Obama crushed McCain in this district by around 20%.  

    [ Parent ]
    I think Obama really out-did himself in CA
    Nearly winning Orange County?  There was something magical there and I really dont like putting that much stock in his numbers for use as a reference point.  How did Kerry fair here?
    [ Parent ]
    Kerry won ~52-46 I think.
    And at the same time, Maldo did about as well as Blakeslee just did, winning by 10, 53-43 over Peg Pinard, the mayor of SLO. So assuming the election is completely finished, if "Santa Cruz liberal" Laird did as well in 2010 as the more moderate (I think) mayor of SLO in 2004, then I don't feel so pessimistic about our chances this fall.

    I can't wait to see if my theory that California has just become too Democratic for even a moderate Republican to win barring unusual circumstances holds this fall, especially in the LG and AG races. Remember, quasi-incumbent Secretary of State Bruce McPherson, who also represented Maldonado/Blakeslee country in the legislature prior to those two, was considered a moderate and even in 2006 still couldn't win.

    My blog
    Twitter
    Scribd
    28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

    [ Parent ]
    Um, no it doesn't! Look at the map
    It does not include the most Democratic parts of Santa Cruz (UCSC, Santa Cruz city, Capitola, Live Oak and Aptos).

    And it doesn't include Democratic Salinas, the largest city in Monterey county.

    Rather it includes everything EXCEPT the most Democratic parts of these counties.

    [ Parent ]
    I hope it doesn't go to a runoff
    If only so we don't get more of this bizarro-world Tekzilla "disaster" stuff.

    Here is a link to the map again
    http://www.sen.ca.gov/ftp/Sen/...

    This a heavily gerrymandered district intended to elect a Republican.

    The northwest of the map shows the City of Santa Cruz and the democratic areas south of it (Live Oak, Capitola and Aptos, Rio Del Mar) are NOT inclusded in the dirstic.  What is included are the most Republican areas of the county, Scotts Valley and Watsonville.

    The northeast part of the district takes in the most Republican areas of santa Clara county (wealthy saratoga, garlic capital of the world Gilroy).

    In Monterey county the district snakes around to avoid heavily Latino Salinas, but includes the more Republican areas like Pebble Beach and Carmel.  Even the smallish inland cities on the 101 freeway are not included.

    San Luis Obispo county is the center of the district, the most Republican county on the coast except for Orange county (and Del Norte on the Oregon border).

    Then the most Republican part of Santa Barbara county is included.

    There is no disaster here.  This is a Republican area, and always has been.  It does vote for national Democrats because these are California Republicans, not Mississippi ones.  They are the left wing of the Republican party.  They won't support Bush or mccain, but they will vote for a moderate business-oriented Republican.

    And again, Laird is a socialist.  He's a solid candidate but the idea that it is "disaster" that a guy to the left of Bernie Sanders would lose a district gerrymandered to be a Republican is simply out of this world.

    [ Parent ]
    Evidence for this claim?
    And again, Laird is a socialist.  He's a solid candidate but the idea that it is "disaster" that a guy to the left of Bernie Sanders would lose a district gerrymandered to be a Republican is simply out of this world.

    Any evidence to suggest that Laird is a "socialist" or "left of Bernie Sanders"?  These are RedState accusations here.

    And if this is true, why the hell was he nominated?  

    [ Parent ]
    He wasn't nominated
    The primary was Tuesday. He is the only Dem who ran.  
    [ Parent ]
    Effectively nominated by the state/local committee
    in this case.  Obviously if Laird was far too left for the district, I'd like to think that the Dem establishment would have found someone else.
    [ Parent ]
    I
    do not want to be the one who brings it up, but I feel his sexuality may have contributed to his loss. It might not have but let's be realistic it really could be the reason. Sadly there are many homophobic people, even in a Democratic district. Does anyone know how prop 8 did here last year?  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    I hope you are not trolling, but tone it done in any case
    He was nominated because he is a respected, smart and decent guy, and is a former Assemblyman and mayor.  He also is mainstream Santa Cruz in idealogy, where many/most of the city council and mayors have been upfront socialists or at least "extremely liberal".  It's one of the most, if not the single most, progressive city in the country.

    Being extremely liberal and gay are not immediate vote problems here like in Alabama, gut it will cost a few points at the polls.  Worse, his actual power base, the city of Santa Cruz is not in the district.

    Laird is a solid candidate who could win easily if this wasn't such a gerrymandered district, but as it is constructed now, it likely could only be won by a moserate, business-y, San Luis Obispo based Democrat facing a much more conservative Republican.

    [ Parent ]
    So
    do you not think his sexuality had anything to do with it? I hate asking that question, but sadly it is a legitimate one. I am hoping it does not. Does the district have a high percentage of AA's? How did prop 8 do there? Thanks in advance.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    I think it cost him less than 1% of the votes
    but more than .1%

    A Democrat winning this district is like a local Democrat winning Pennsylvania, without any Philadelphia votes... or winning Illinois without Cook County votes.

    It can happen, but it is a waaaay uphill struggle.

    I don't have Prop 8 numbers, but the district avoids the most Latino area... the most liberal city in the country... and the super-liberal University campus.

    The district could be easily made Democratic by adding Santa Cruz city to it, and sloughing off some of the Santa Clara part.  These are in the stupidly dummymandered 11th
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C...

    [ Parent ]
    Prop 8 lost the district 48%-52%
    [ Parent ]
    Prop 8 totals shows the 15th Republican gerrymander
    Prop 8 in the part of Santa Cruz county in District 15 was Yes=19k, No=29k

    Prop 8 in the part of Santa Cruz county NOT in District 15 was Yes=17k, No=60k

    Very large difference.  The parts of Santa Cruz county not in the 15th are far more liberal than the parts that are included.

    [ Parent ]
    Guess we can probably forget about 2/3
    until 2012?

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    Hm, Blakeslee has the advantage
    Blakeslee has 6,836 ballots remaining in his two strong counties (San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara) while Laird has 5,114 in his two strong counties of Monterey and Santa Cruz.

    Blakeslee barely won Santa Clara county which has 5400 ballots yet to be counted.

    Thanks for the link.

    [ Parent ]
    Santa Clara is still good...
    because Blakeslee got less than 50% in Santa Clara. If the pattern continues, the Santa Clara VBMs will help to keep him below 50%.

    Of course, how much that really matters in the scheme of things - will things really change between now and August?, but from a purely psephological perspective, those Santa Clara ballots should be a good thing.

    [ Parent ]
    NV-Sen: new Rasmussen poll, still GOP-biased, BUT......
    ...some interesting numbers nonetheless.

    The topline is Angle up 48-41, down from 50-39 immediately post-primary.

    I've been a disser of crosstabs in recent months after learning how little they often inform compared to toplines, but one thing worth noting is that Rasmussen is always eye-opening for consistently having much more heavily Republican nonwhite voters, especially in the "other" category as in "not black," in their sample than everyone knows will show up on election day.  And this poll is no exception.  Ras has white voters favoring Angle by the same 7-point margin as in the topline, but "other" which in Nevada means mostly Hispanics favoring her 65-18(!).  That's just absurd.  As a rule, the crosstabs for whites are usually more reliable because whites are usually an overwhelming majority of the sample, so the margin of error for the white subsample is much lower than for other demographic breakdowns.  So if Angle's lead with whites really is in the ballpark of 7 points, she's losing.

    Favorables:  Reid at 48-49, Angle at 48-47.

    Obama job approval in Nevada:  48-52.

    Overall, these aren't bad numbers for Reid for a Rasmussen poll.

    I only wish others would poll this race more, but Mason-Dixon is the only other pollster I've seen there all year, and only LVRJ hires them to do the state.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    How is it
    that 97% of Nevadans already have an opinion of Angle? Plus Harry and Angle seem way too popular in that poll. Wait.... why am I analyzing a Scotty poll?

    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
    [ Parent ]
    The trendlines at least are good for Reid......
    The 47% unfavorable is Angle's worst rating ever in a Rasmussen poll, and Reid's 48-49 is his best ever.

    Angle has gotten a lot of negative attention post-primary, so it wouldn't surprise me if "no opinion" is a lower share of the electorate than would normally be the case at this stage.  But I agree that more than just 3% are "unsure" of what to think of her.  FWIW, her "very favorable/very unfavorable" spread is a poor 17-33, and even among white voters it's a poor 21-34.  So her public image really does seem to be sinking.

    Regarding Reid's improved image, that, indeed, can be an anomaly of Rasmussen, or it could be that his positive ads really are helping him a bit.  It's actually strange that a well-known incumbent at 48% favorable and minus-1 is at 41% vote share and minus-7; that definitely is a fluke of Rasmussen.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Rasmussen's favorables
    are always all over the place.  Sometimes, they are way too high for democrats, such as Harry Reid in this case and sometimes too low for Republicans.
    [ Parent ]
    Forget favorables, Rasmussen's TOPLINES are all over the place, but...
    ...you can still glean something from Ras if you follow the trends in their crosstabs over time.  It's harder because they are, indeed, much more erratic than anyone else, but several months of polls on the same race usually provides something useful in the mix.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Um, so Rasmussen now leans Democratic?
    They also tend to show Democrats doing worse than they usually are and also Republicans in a better shape than what's believable.
    [ Parent ]
    More evidence that Rasmussen
    is a completely worthless poll.
    [ Parent ]
    IA-Gov: Branstand Picks a Running Mate
    Haven't seen this posted yet...Terry Branstand has picked state Sen. Kim Reynolds as his running mate.

    http://www.iowapolitics.com/in...

    Male, 23, NJ-12

    Branstad picked running mate
    Not someone from the BVP camp. It's a state senator almost no one has heard of My first take is at Bleeding Heartland. I think he chose someone to keep fiscal issues rather than social issues front and center, and I am not sure the religious right will be happy (although lt. gov candidate Kim Reynolds is conservative on the social issues).

    I doubt Vander Plaats will run as an independent. Working up a post on some scenarios.

    SC-Gov
    I don't know if this has been posted elsewhere, but Vince Sheheen just got the endorsement of the SC Chamber of Commerce, which was posted to his website this morning (vincentsheheen.com)

    Probably isn't a huge surprise since they're neither fans of Sanford nor Haley, but should definitely give Sheheen some extra dough in what isn't a terribly expensive state.

    24, SSP Gay Caucus Policy Committee Chair, Western Democrat; CO-05 (home), CA-14 (law school)

    If
    they spend for him like they spent trying to kill HCR we ought to be good.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    I hope they spend as much as possible
    to keep Nikki Haley out of the Governor's Mansion.  

    24, SSP Gay Caucus Policy Committee Chair, Western Democrat; CO-05 (home), CA-14 (law school)
    [ Parent ]
    I agree
    She is a Mark Sanford clone.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    Why do they hate Mark Sanford so much?

    [ Parent ]
    hostile to business
    I forget the details.  But I think Sanford was reluctant to give businesses incentives like tax breaks because of ideological reasons.
    [ Parent ]
    Rasmussen
    shows Burr leading Marshall by 1 point!

    T

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    Well NC-Sen is officially a toss-up
    And if Rasmussen shows it only within 1%, Im going to start calling Marshall a favorite.  I think she's going to win and have actually thought this race almost exactly mirrored NC-Sen 2008 since it's inception.
    [ Parent ]
    Remember its Rasmussen
    Ya'll suddenly trust them now since they produced a D friendly result? This isn't the first time this year they have been more D friendly than other pollsters, look at CA. They don't lean R. They have a crazy LV model and sometimes, it benefits Dems more.  
    [ Parent ]
    Oh,
    I see, so when it shows us doing well then we here the "it's Rasmussen" argument. Lol, JK. I actually very much agree with you, we can't cherry pick our polls to our favor. To analogize this poll I would have to also analogize all of the crazy ones as well.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    Agreed
    Come on people, we know better than to trust Scotty. Right now I would say Burr is up around 6 points consistent with what non-Ras has said

    19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem
    [ Parent ]
    I think the poll for NC-Sen can be part of the Rasmussen tactical movements

    I think some republican pollsters want to open the group of competitive senate (and gubernatorial) races for make to the democrats spend more money in races what are less competitive, and help for cut a part of the financial support to the democratic candidates in the really competitive races.

    They can make appear safer democratic seats (like OR-Sen) as more competitive, and they can make too appear safer republican seats as more competitive.

    I believe not Rasmussen numbers in no-one case.

    [ Parent ]
    I adjusted for the Rasmassusen bias
    and hence why I think Marshall is going to be end up being the favorite.  If she's only down 1% for Rasmussen she's actually up 5%.
    [ Parent ]
    Normally I'd agree 100%
    But inta-polls will favor the person who was on the news the night before... Paul, Angle, now Marshall.

    Putting the two Ras weaknesses together should put Marshall in the range of +4 to -3.  That's all just margin of error... lol, "margin of Ras".

    Bottom line though, we only lose this race if Burr runs a better campaign than Marshall.

    [ Parent ]
    I still wouldn't rate it a tossup yet.
    One poll doesn't prove anything. As a commentator pointed out earlier, Rasmussen has been very erratic lately, and this is one of his classic "poll right after the primary" that are particular prone to being wrong (see Rand Paul).

    Also, 2010 is not 2008. It's not going to be a Democratic year. I can see Marshall keeping it close, but I think Burr still pulls it out in the end.

    But I'm willing to be convinced otherwise. Still leans Republican in my book.  

    [ Parent ]
    I think Marshall is close
    thanks to the well-documented RassmussenPrimaryBounce(TM)

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
    [ Parent ]
    Hey, I like the trademark! I'm using that from now on.

    [ Parent ]
    Im getting myself out their early
    and calling it.  It didnt take a Rasmussen poll to make me bullish on this race either.  He just confirmed it for me.
    [ Parent ]
    It's probably a single-digit race, but I suspect Burr has the edge
    Hard to imagine Elaine Marshall prevailing in this cycle, no matter how bland and lukewarm an incumbent Richard Burr is. I imagine David Vitter's the more vulnerable sitting Republican.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    [ Parent ]
    Same goofy Ras
    This race is a tossup to be sure, but polling right after a primary or runoff wfor one party won convincingly will skew results.

    In this case, Marshall is likely down slightly, but it's a pure tossup given Burr's squishy numbers.

    If Marshall runs a good campaign, she'll win this, but now she needs money and the proper strategy promoting the more popular agenda and pointing out that whatever the ideology, Burr is not a strong Senator.

    [ Parent ]
    Agree with those above
    Saying it is the usual post-primary win bounce he always finds. Next time round Burr will be well ahead again.
    [ Parent ]
    SSP Daily Digest: 6/24 (Morning Edition) | 68 comments

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