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NC-08: Kissell Would Crush D'Annunzio, But Johnson Keeps It Close

by: James L.

Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 11:21 AM EDT


Public Policy Polling (6/10-13, likely voters, 1/9-11 in parens):

Larry Kissell (D-inc): 48 (54)
Tim D'Annunzio (R): 26 (38)
Undecided: 26 (7)

Larry Kissell (D-inc): 41 (53)
Harold Johnson (R): 35 (39)
Undecided: 23 (8)

Larry Kissell (D-inc): 40
Harold Johnson (R): 30
Wendell Fant (I): 14
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±4.9%)

Interestingly, ex-Kissell staffer Wendell Fant, whom the SEIU is trying to push into the race on an independent ballot line, actually seems to help Kissell by pulling more votes away from Johnson. Fant draws a nearly equal share of liberals, moderates, and conservatives, and 12% of Republican votes compared to 11% of Democrats. However, that would probably change after his positions become more obvious over the course of a campaign, I'd bet. As it is right now, it seems that the presence of another protest option on the ballot helps Kissell's top lines.

In any case, it's clear that Kissell's position has become much more dangerous since PPP's last look at this race at the height of HCR-mania in January.
James L. :: NC-08: Kissell Would Crush D'Annunzio, But Johnson Keeps It Close
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NC-08: Kissell Would Crush D'Annunzio, But Johnson Keeps It Close | 13 comments
Undecided voters
I'm surprised that the number of undecided voters jumped up as much as they did.  Going from single digits to the 20's is interesting.


40, male, Democrat, NC-04
Not really
I suspect it was the previous poll that was faulty since PPP more usually than not find more undecideds in their polls. I also suspect Kissell will be fine whatever but the SEIU are playing with fire here. If they felt strongly enough they should have pushed for a competitive primary.
[ Parent ]
Thanks
After having some lunch, I also wondered if this could be the case.  Thanks.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
SEIU
Whatever anyone thought about the SEIU's support for Halter in AR - and I supported it - they are being irresponsible and stupid in this race. Funding a competitive primary against a Democrat who they consider weak on issues of importance to labor is fine; it's working within the party. Funding an independent, essentially in order to throw the election to a right-wing Republican, is harmful to labor.

I hope these people are smart enough to have correctly calculated that by funding an independent campaign, they can seem crazy and thereby threatening to Democratic Congress members who might cross them, but without actually throwing the election to the Republican candidate. They do want Democratic politicians to fear them, and seeming reckless can engender fear. But they'd better really know what they're doing, and I, for one, think this action is very stupid.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Totally Agree
SEIU seems hellbent on a suicide mission.  I really don't see how this helps them long term. A dem whose with them 80% of the time is much much better then a republican whose with them 0% of the time.  I mean yes, they should be upset that some dems voted against healthcare, but lighten up it PASSED.

SEIU will also have other issues and need other things in the future and I have to think that their actions are just going to make more moderate middle of the road dems avoid them altogether.  

[ Parent ]
there's a world of difference between a primary challenge
and an independant candidacy to be dicks that allowa a Republican to win.
[ Parent ]
I couldn't agree more n/t


"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Looks like
the controversy surrounding Mark Kirk's military record has hurt him down in Illinois: Alexi leads Kirk 31-30

http://www.publicpolicypolling...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

You can't really say anything definitive
about this race until after the runoff between Johnson and D'Annunzio.  If the latter wins the runoff this race moves to Solid D I think, but if the former wins, it's probably a Lean.  That's what I've thought all along, and the poll pretty much confirms that.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
Hard to imagine
how D'Annunzio can win the runoff.
[ Parent ]
He's outspending Johnson 2-1, according to CQ Politics


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
He outspent the field big time
in the primary, and only came up with 37%. Since then, the press coverage has gotten much, much worse for him. Sometimes, no amount of money can cover up the fact that you are batshit insane.
[ Parent ]
But only sometimes.
Have there been any polls since?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
NC-08: Kissell Would Crush D'Annunzio, But Johnson Keeps It Close | 13 comments

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