Living in Scott Rasmussen’s world, as we do, it’s not every day that we get to see polls that don’t drip with utter doom ‘n’ gloom for Democrats. With that in mind, let’s take a look at PPP’s latest hit from North Carolina.
Public Policy Polling (1/9-11, likely voters):
Larry Kissell (D-inc): 54
Tim D’Annunzio (R): 38Larry Kissell (D-inc): 55
Lou Huddleston (R): 37Larry Kissell (D-inc): 53
Harold Johnson (R): 39Larry Kissell (D-inc): 55
Hal Jordan (R): 39Larry Kissell (D-inc): 53
Generic R: 39
(MoE: ±3.6%)
This is a district that has, more often than not in recent history, leaned Republican. Al Gore lost it by 46-54 in 2000, and Kerry by 45-54 in 2004. Obama finally changed that in 2008, winning the CD by 53-47. In a year with a GOP tilt, you’d expect there to be some significant Democratic drop-off from that margin, and PPP does indeed find a more GOP-friendly electorate: this sample split their votes by a 48-48 margin in the ’08 presidential race. Given the environment, I’d say that’s a level of decline that Kissell would be willing to deal with.
Granted, Kissell is up against some opponents with pretty scant name recognition, but his margin against “Generic R” and his 45-30 approval rating should give him some comfort. If the Republicans are going to take back the House, they’ll probably have to prioritize districts other than this one in order to get the job done.
RaceTracker Wiki: NC-08
I’m sure one of the primary reasons for high poll numbers is the question: “who are all these other guys?”
The fact that you say 2010 will have a GOP tilt 10 months out makes me sad. Sure, it will likely not be a gangbuster year for dems, but who says that it won’t be more of a neutral year, when net gain/loss in both houses are in the single digits.
Maybe the tea party candidates will spilt GOP votes and give the dems a spoiler victory in some districts.
he voted against healthcare, I thought all that progressives who delivered him to victory were never gonna vote for him again. That’s what Jane Hamsher said!
Best. Name. Ever!
I hope he is a former Air Force pilot, can overcome great fear, and has great willpower. He better like green as well.
I hope to find other races with Bruce Wayne, Clark Kent, Diana Prince, and Barry Allen.
With Blackest Night being the #1 comic book right now, he’s got some good nerd name ID.
For those who have no idea what I’m talking about: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H…
I love that “Generic Republican” is more popular than the actual Republicans. That’s always a fun sign.
A Democrat who was recently elected in the South who isn’t on the verge of getting smashed.
I’ve said it before: Kissell is a good fit for NC-08. This district is the most difficult district in NC to figure out, but Kissell has walked the tight-rope better than I could have imagined. I imagine that by November the race will tighten up, but Kissell seems to be sailing pretty smoothly.
Why the hell isn’t anyone polling CA-44?!?!
Given his political standing and the nature of his district, I don’t see how he can justify voting against it. The Democrats should twist his arm during the final vote, to offset the probable loss of aye votes like Stupak and Cao.