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SSP Daily Digest: 5/25 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Tue May 25, 2010 at 8:08 AM EDT


  • AZ-Sen: Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? J.D. Hayworth thinks so!

  • CT-Sen: Dave Weigel tweeters that Rob Simmons will "make statement on the future of his campaign" at 9am today. What could this mean? A) He's getting married to Ginny Brown-Waite; B) he's announcing endorsements from Nikolai Volkoff and the Iron Sheik; or C) he's bailing out of the race in the face of Linda McMahon's zillions of dollars and new party endorsement. The Connecticut Mirror says it's option C. If so, that would pretty much just leave Paulist weirdo Peter Schiff in the mix against McMahon.

  • IA-Sen: Dem Roxanne Conlin has launched her first TV ad of the campaign, a biographical spot. Of course, no word on the size of the buy. I think Conlin will need to go sharply negative against Grassley if she wants to make a real dent in his poll numbers.

  • KS-Sen: Todd Tiahrt's probably wondering what exactly he did wrong on the way to (probably) losing the Republican nomination: "Didn't I out-teabag him my whole career?" I guess it doesn't matter. SurveyUSA now has him down 52-29 to fellow Rep. Jerry Moran in the GOP primary. Two months ago he trailed "only" 42-32. The primary here isn't until Aug. 3rd, but Tiahrt's consistently crappy polling is going to make it hard for him to make the case that he can turn things around before then.

  • NV-Sen: Because we like to keep track of such things, we note that the Tea Party Express - the shady, consultant-backed apparatus that appears to be trading on the "Tea Party" name in order to drum up business - has already spent $300K on behalf of Sharron Angle in the GOP primary. If she pulls off an upset against Chicken Lady, the TPE will have a nice notch in its belt - and will probably be able to put the fear of god into a few Republican candidates here and there.

  • KY-Gov: Freshman Rep. Brett Guthrie says he won't seek the Kentucky governor's mansion in 2011, but didn't rule out an eventual run some point in the future (he's 46 years old).

  • OH-Gov: A group backed by the DGA and the American Federation of Teachers called "Building a Stronger Ohio" is going up with a $300K ad buy on behalf of Ted Strickland which is likely to hammer John Kasich some more. (You may recall that Strickland's first ad out of the box blasted Kasich for his Wall Street ties.) Nathan Gonzales reports that this new group has $1.7 million in funding (so far), so more and bigger buys are probably on the way.

  • AL-05: Turncoat Parker Griffith just loaned his campaign $75K ahead of the June 1 primary, on top of $180K he loaned himself earlier.

  • HI-01: In light of Charles Djou's 40% plurality win, his conservative record, and the fact that we'll have a normal election in November, we're moving this race back to Tossup status.

  • NC-08: Now that their attempt to create a third party in North Carolina has fizzled, SEIU is scaling back their plans. Instead, they are trying to recruit former Larry Kissell staffer and Iraq War vet Wendell Fant to challenge his old boss (who of course voted no on healthcare reform) as an independent.

  • PA-11: Some Dude Brian Kelly managed to score 17% in the Democratic primary against Paul Kanjorski, despite refusing all financial contributions. Now, he's gone and endorsed Republican Lou Barletta. Kanjorski was in trouble anyway, but this certainly doesn't help.

  • PA-12: Mark Critz's impressive eight-point win, combined with the fact that he'll get square off again in November against a guy he already beat soundly (Tim Burns), has us convinced that this race should be Lean D. It's been a very long time since anyone won a special and then lost the subsequent rematch - Wisconsin Dem Peter Barca was the last to do so, in 1993/94. However, Barca won his special by just 675 votes, while Critz cruised by over 10,000.

  • VA-05: Saying he would "rather see Tom Perriello for two more years than the wrong conservative there for 20 years," teabagger Jeffrey Clark says he'll launch an independent bid if the hated Rob Hurt wins the GOP primary.

  • WI-07: Dem state Rep. Louis Molepske says he won't challenge state Sen. Julie Lassa in the primary, more or less clearing the field for her. The picture on the GOP side is less clear, where state Rep. Jerry Petrowski is still considering a bid, even though Ashland DA Sean Duffy has been running for a while (and has some establishment support).
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    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 5/25 (Morning Edition)
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    SSP Daily Digest: 5/25 (Morning Edition) | 217 comments
    Really SEIU?!?!
    Is this really the best use of your time and money trying to get former staffers to challenge their old bosses?!?!  Don't be such sore winner SEIU, you got what you wanted, healthcare passed now move on.

     

    He Opposed the Union's Priority
    So why shouldn't the union oppose him?  
    [ Parent ]
    Normally I agree with the union position
    But this, like OH-18, seems self-defeating.  These aren't northeast,west coast or urban districts.  And it wasn't like the HIR bill that passed was Medicare II.  Seems like cutting your nose off to spite you face.
    [ Parent ]
    NC-08 PVI = R+2. n/t

    [ Parent ]
    I concur
    Kissell may be a disappointment to many, but he's much better than anything the Republicans can offer.  The SEIU might not like Kissell, but they will detest Tim D or Harold Johnson.

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04
    [ Parent ]
    It's even dumber in OH-18
    Which is an R+7 district as opposed to NC-8 which is only R+2.  Without the Coingate scandal we wouldn't even have Zack Space today, and outside of a few votes he's actually been pretty reliable for the most part.  He's well liked too!  For the SEIU to go all-in to take him out over one HCR vote just reeks of stupidity.  


    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
    [ Parent ]
    Exactly right (n/t)


    40, male, Democrat, NC-04
    [ Parent ]
    Very True
    When will democrats ever learn to get along with each other.
    [ Parent ]
    This Isn't the Democrats Though
    If it was a party committee your view would make sense - but it's not. What, gay groups should back anti-gay incumbents and the NAACP should back anti-black incumbents and Emily's List should back pro-forced pregnancy incumbents, just for the sake of the Democratic Party? These are interest groups. They have their own concerns. And has been noted this is a toss-up district - so if they think they can get another Democrat in office more aligned with their views they have a responsibility to their membership, which cares about the interest group's issues, to elect legislators supporting those views.
    [ Parent ]
    I dont like what they are doing
    But I pretty much took the idea from your post and figured their goal is to sacrifice one to whip them all.  

    If that somehow gets us EFCA, Im ok with that.  Dont agree, it sets an extremely dangerous precedent, could backfire, etc.  But it's their millions and a process where people can spend all they want.  (Unions getting to spend unlimited amounts is a baby-step ahead of corporations, both suck and swing voters will hate seeing both do it, maybe even more so unions.)

    [ Parent ]
    True but
    These aren't single issue group either and both of them maybe have been bad on HCR but overall they are a net positive on labor issues.
    [ Parent ]
    I understand that
    Moreover, I can respect that. But my feeling is, the SEIU should continue supporting primary opposition to people like Kissell, but supporting an independent candidate who is fairly likely to cause the Republican to win is not a good use of their money. But that's up to them, and it's ass-backwards to demand the SEIU be loyal to all Democratic incumbents. Rather, the Democratic members of the House and Senate should be serving the interests of workers, and where they aren't, they should expect trouble. You don't have to agree with my last two sentences, but I do think they encapsulate the SEIU's point of view.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  
    [ Parent ]
    SEIU spending is weird this cycle
    I agree.  I understand not backing candidates who don';t support your priorities.  But sinc eHCR passed, is it not time to turn to other priorities.  Does the SEIU think some Republican will support the next minimum wage increase vote (or other union related policies) moreso than these Dems?

    Its not like toeing the union line is a winning strategy nationwide.  States where we have to live with less-than-progrssive Dems are just a reality.  Why the SEIU is doing what its doing I don't know.  But I'm pretty sure they will fail in most of their primary attempts this cycle...

    [ Parent ]
    Smart politics means being coldly practical......
    It's a tough district for a Democrat, it's a Republican year, but the Democratic incumbent can still win, and health care reform passed without Kissell's vote.

    The smart thing to do is just be quiet and let Kissell win, voicing displeasure and maybe withholding concrete help but doing nothing otherwise to cost him reelection.

    Contrast that with, say, AR-Sen, where the key difference is that Lincoln looks like toast in November anyway.  So there, the unions can whack her to send a message without really costing us the seat...since it's almost certainly gone anyway.  And if we do pull off an upset win, it's more likely with a fresh face like Halter than with a well-known incumbent who voters have decided they dislike, and they have a strong mainsteam conservative alternative in Boozman.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Brian Kelly wan a pure teabagger
    so - no surprises here. But it proves that teabaggers have some base and support not only in Republican party,(what's obvious), but in Democratic too. At least in some places. You may remember D.C. Morrison's candidacy in Arkansas (i read somewhere that he now supports Boozman), there is similar Democratic candidate in TN-06 and, probably,  some other...  
    Still sickening
    Kanjo really needs to run a perfect race tow in this.  Hope he is on his game.

    If you run as a D and then endorse Barletta, what exactly is your ideology?

    [ Parent ]
    What is an ideology of Kelly, Morrison and others?
    Probably something between "populist conservative" (Morrison was a Huckabee supporter in 2008 AFAIK) and simple "conservative". Not in the sense frequently used on dKos and other left-leaninng blogs, where "conservative" and "DINO" usually means "moderate" or "not especially liberal", but in real one, of the type which was rather typical among, say, southern comgressmen 30-40 years ago, and which still exist in some states (Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi spring to mind immediately, though even there a slow process of Republicanization of such people continues)...
    [ Parent ]
    But Barletta?
    What views does he have that coincide with the Democratic party?   If Keppy ran as a D, why would he then back Barletta.  Was Keppy just a screw loose Dem?
    [ Parent ]
    In a sense - yes, but ....
    Barletta's trademark is "illegal immigration". I can imagine... well rather substantial number od Democrats, especially blue-collar ones, who are almost as concerned with this issue as he is. And not only in "rust belt"
    [ Parent ]
    Is that what Kelly ran on?
    I'm just confused about all of this.  I know its a big issue in certain areas, and shouldn't be in PA-11.  But it will play VERY well in this district for the reasons you stated.

    But did Kelly run on anti-immigration for the primary.  I didnt pay much attention to this race...

    [ Parent ]
    I would say - that was part of his platform
    But there were also other accusations ("waste" and other) rather typical for teabagging crowd. So - i repeat - i am not surprized. But you can create your impression yourself:

    http://www.briankellyforcongre...

    [ Parent ]
    What a god-awful site
    He didn'[t need to tell me he didn't fundraise after looking at that site lol.

    Yeah, quite an odd Dem for sure.  We'll have to see what happens.  If Kanjo loses so be it but I would rahter not have Barletta.

    I wonder what Kelly would have run on against Barletta had he won????

    [ Parent ]
    Probably on combination
    of teabagging views and "D" after his name)))
    [ Parent ]
    I almost wish he'd won
    I'd like to see how that would have worked out.  Would have been an interesting case study.
    [ Parent ]
    that was definitely worth a 3 minute look over
    He sent out a press release about how his two Dem opponents got more free media attention than he did and asks, is that fair?  Did the media give the voters of PA-11 a good enough blah blah blah.

    Um, it's called "earned media" in the political biz, and that's for a reason.

    [ Parent ]
    Boils down to immigration
    Blue Collar Democrats care a lot about immigration.  Lou Barletta has got elected in Hazelton, which is largely a Democrat city, by being anti-immigration.  PA-11, like many of these old industrial areas, is filled with a bunch of "bitter / clingers" who hate outsiders.  I lived in PA-12.  It crosses party lines as an Arizona style immigration bill was introduced by in the PA Legislature with bipartisan support in western and northern PA.  Ironically, its bipartisan opposition is located in the south central and southeastern parts of the state.  Which is ironic seeing the Lancaster/York/Harrisburg area is so Republican and has the highest percentage of immigrants in the state.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
    [ Parent ]
    Historically a lot of the anti-immigration stuff have come from lest wing labor unions.
    A lot of the anti-immigration people are blue collar private sector labor union Democrats. FAIR for example is really a Labor back anti immigration group that even has Eugene McCarthy on its board of directors!

    That's what make immigration such a touchy issue for both the right and the left. Economic conservatives (like Dick Armey and the Club for Growth) favor increased immigration while palo conservatives like Pat Buchanan and Tancredo oppose it in all forms. While lots of blue collar Labor Dems are against it.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    McCarthy
    Considering that Gene is dead, I don't think he's on the board anymore.
    [ Parent ]
    CT Senate
    I think we still need to wait to see the extent of the fallout from the NYT piece, but I have a feeling Blumenthal could claim he fought in the War of 1812 and still beat Linda McMahon!  
    Was Simmons A Teabagger?
    Because it seemed like he was hitching a ride on that gravy train most of last year. With his eventual withdrawal this morning, it seems like a symbolism of a teabagger going down in defeat.
    [ Parent ]
    Not really...
    Simmons was more of a true conservative. He was starting to go the Teabag way when McMahon entered the race so he could be the alternative. The Tea Party movement, at least from what I've seen, hasn't gained a lot of ground in New Enland.

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)
    [ Parent ]
    I think he is not a credible candidate as "true conservative"

    His voting record as congressman was between the less conservatives in republican delegation.
    [ Parent ]
    I think he is not a credible candidate as "true conservative"

    His voting record as congressman was one of less conservative in all the republican delegation.

    And McMahon the same, helping to democrats in the past.

    [ Parent ]
    At least one exception
    The Tea Party movement, at least from what I've seen, hasn't gained a lot of ground in New England.  

    Maybe not electorally, but google news "Maine Republican platform" for an... interesting example of how they exist even up there.

    überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

    [ Parent ]
    Nah, Simmons was the mainstream (and smarter) choice......
    Simmons is a former Congressman, the only choice who had ever been elected to anything.  He was the one candidate who potentially scared me.

    McMahon can spend all she wants, there's just too much material to use against her to make voters trust her with a seat in the U.S. Senate.

    I think Blumenthal is in real good shape.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Case to run again
    http://www.politico.com/news/s...

    No surprise, despite some speculation yesterday that he wouldn't.

    "My basic message to my party is that Hanabusa cannot beat Djou and I will. The results prove that in spades. ... He will hold his votes and enough of the people that voted for me will vote for Djou to get him over 50 percent."

    Of course an argument can be made that if Case is the nominee, Djou will get non-white votes that Hanabusa would have gotten.

    Case is so full of sh*t
    He was the establishment's choice because of supposedly superior polling numbers, and he LOST to Hanabusa by 3%, coming in 3rd place overall.  He doesn't have a leg to stand on as far as electability is concerned.  If he stands in and knocks out Hanabusa in the primary, it's extremely likely that the ethnic Hawaiian/Asian/Pacific Islander vote is going to be flocking to Djou.  He thinks that his supporters (which are mostly white) won't support Hanabusa?  It's actually the other way around, Hanabusa's supporters won't support him, especially since his getting in the race cost Hanabusa the victory in the first place.  No way Hanabusa's supporters are going to forgive Case for that.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
    [ Parent ]
    Agree
    But Case cares about only one thing, and that's Case.
    [ Parent ]
    So basically he admits he is a DINO?
    Screw him. He'll lose the primary anyway.
    [ Parent ]
    That's not how I define "DINO." Rather, I'd call him a backstabber......
    In the DCCyclone Political Dictionary:

    A "DINO" is someone who turns against our party on substance.

    A "turncoat" is someone who backs a Republican over a Democrat.

    A "backstabber" is something short of a turncoat, someone who hurts a Democrat but doesn't (necessarily) intend to help the Republican.  There is always the risk that a backstabber might be a disguised turncoat, or might be tempted to eventually become a turncoat.

    Case has a big fat fucking mouth for saying categorically "Hanabusa can't beat Djou" and will be punished for that.  Democratic voters don't like Democratic political figures talking like that.  It reminds me completely of Hillary telling her campaign team "Obama can't win," although that was a later revelation and not a public remark.

    I'll enjoy seeing Case get crushed in the primary, which I'm increasingly confident will happen.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    I like what Populista called some Dem the other day
    A Lieberdem!  (Instead of backstabber.)  Those ones are the real problem in our party and who I dont mind seeing going down.

    Case is a Lieberdem.

    [ Parent ]
    It's going to be epically great
    When Hanabusa beats Case by 15 points and ends his career for good.

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)
    [ Parent ]
    IA-Sen
    I think Conlin will go negative later, but before the Democratic primary she is right to stay positive.
    SSP favorite Vaughn Ward plagiarized Obama
    He plagiarized Obama's infamous 2004 speech:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

    oh nevermind
    They beat me to the punch :(
    [ Parent ]
    Has he had any response to this plagiarism?
    I mean, I would think he'd be ashamed of himself, parroting a committed Marxist/Leninist Kenyan Radical Muslim out to destroy America :)
    [ Parent ]
    Correction: it was a celebrated speech, not infamous. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, jeez
    Careful with your adjectives there, InRepublican.
    [ Parent ]
    HI-01
    "Case challenged Hanabusa to jointly commission a poll to see which of them would be more competitive against Djou in November - and said whichever candidate polled worse should drop out."

    Don't need a poll, got actual results that show you down by more than 5,000 bozo!

    If Case had just said
    "I'm still going to compete in the primary and will support the D nominee in November"

    Then I'd be OK with it.

    But given the problems with polling in HI, that kind of challenge by Case is no better than a mob offer to gamble on cooked books.

    [ Parent ]
    This is "meta," but I'm thinking "the other shoe" might be dropping...
    ...on our midterm prospects.  The oil spill and the economy's sudden wrong turn look like real trouble.

    I'm no tekzilla or UpstateDem, I'm a realist, and if I'm prone to error it's on the wishful side.

    But the left is starting to hit Obama for the oil spill, and it's not going to get better given the reality that there's nothing the Administration can do about the damn spill that they're not already doing.

    And the European problems are skinning our stock market, and it's only a matter of time before Americans more broadly get scared again and resume hoarding instead of spending.  The rise in jobless claims and fall in home prices recently only scare me more about where we're headed near-term.

    So we might very well be in a situation where events out of our control, that we didn't foresee, are going to let the GOP flip the House, in spite of all we've weathered so far.

    Again, I don't like being alarmist, I'm always hesitant to say the sky is falling.  But things don't look good right now.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    I'm getting the same sinking feeling.
    And it's not just a sinking feeling about Dem election prospects, but rather about the country and the world in general.  Another non-trivial factor is the unstable situation in the Koreas, which is starting to affect markets overseas.  Things don't look good at all.

    Obama's approval rating appears to be dropping after a pretty good stretch in the previous weeks.  Rasmussen now has him at 42%, the lowest ever.  Grain of salt taken, but the trend is bad.  Fox had him at 45% last week I believe.  Gallup has him at 48%, and I'll be very interested in what Gallup has to say today.

    But yes, this is the most pessimistic I've been the whole cycle.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    More pessimistic than March?

    [ Parent ]
    Can't speak for our 8-legged friend, but I'm the most pessimistic that I've ever been......
    The thing about March was, there was nothing going on that looked like it would hurt us long-term except perhaps a too-slow economic recovery.

    Now we have a double whammy of the oil spill that drags on, potentially now for MONTHS more, and a new economic crisis that potentially could hurt for months.  Those are the "unforseeable events" that are referred to generically in a footnote to anyone's predictions in most cases.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Fair enough
    Though I still think the oil spill as an out by attacking big business. Maybe the GOP goes back to claiming the stock market is all that matters but clearly the most important thing to voters is that they have a jobor that at the very least they see the market improving. At the moment evidence is quite encouraging for the latter. Now, one effects the other but the outlook on that is very much unforseen for where I'm sitting.
    [ Parent ]
    I have a feeling people wont blame Obama too much
    BP is the one getting totally screwed, they've lost 25% of their market share.  (Not going to find the link, but yeah, that's a doozy.)  It's really unfortunate and bad timing he chose to be pragmatic when he did on the off-shore issue, because he certainly deserves to get screwed by this.  And I do think it could turn that way, but it hasnt yet.  People still think BP are a bunch of morons who cant figure out how to plug up a damn hole.  (Clearly I know it's more complicated than that.)  And Obama keeping the boot on BP's neck is going to be the way to go.  And he's also been backpedaling on more off-shore drilling.  

    Obama chose the absolute shittiest time to ever to become President.  Shouldve just let Hillary deal with all of this because it's not like he wouldnt have become President someday anyway if he wanted to.  Spose if he makes it through all of this, can get to 2016 and still be popular, he'll be a legend.

    [ Parent ]
    "Attack big business" right after Obama made a big show about NEW OFFSHORE DRILLING?......
    The timing couldn't have been worse!

    If by chance the Administration had planned the "new offshore drilling rollout" for a month later than they did......then there never would have been a rollout, there never would have been new offshore exploration authorized.  It would have been obvious political poison, a complete non-starter.

    So now, as it worked out, they had the big to-do about Obama opening up new offshore drilling, and he's perceived as sorta kinda "in bed" with big oil.  It's only "sorta kinda" because yes, people still have a hard time associating a Democratic President with big oil instead of with environmentalists, but if he attacks "big business" or "big oil," you can bet Republicans (hypocritically and ironically) will remind, and the media will amplify, that Obama opened up more offshore drilling "at the same time" (that will be the spin) this oil disaster happened!

    You're still right that attacking BP has to be part of Obama's message anyway, but I'm not sure a broader attack on big business works so well for him.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    No need to shout
    He has plenty wiggle room on this despite being open to new drilling. I know it isn't ideal but such is life.
    [ Parent ]
    I am
    These are some troubling times.  The Democrats are now in power, and the electorate has a short memory on what caused the "great recession".  Furthermore, the tea party activists are going to exploit the fact that the vast majority of the Bush tax cuts/taxation legislation will expire at the end of the year.  The tea party activists along with the Republicans will try their best to fan the flames of uncertainty to carry them to victory in November.  I'm more pessimistic now because the stock market has started to tank, and as a result we will see more misinformation that the Obama administration will have to deal with.

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04
    [ Parent ]
    The stock market goes up and down
    There is still plenty of time left for things to get worse or better. The polling is better than it was in March right across the board. But the only thing I'm looking at in terms of the economy is on the first Friday of every month. And there will be bumps in that I'm sure. Still, long term trajectory should still be up in spite of Europe, oil slicks and Kim Jong Il.
    [ Parent ]
    Sure
    I am a CPA and I understand that there are "peaks and valleys" in the stock market.  However, most of the electorate don't have a clue that the markets will eventually emerge again.  At the same time, most don't even remember that the stock market jumped up dramatically from the March 2009 lows.  Most remember the drops, but few remembers the ride up.

    The markets could emerge soon, but right now I have a feeling that we won't see more than a modest uptick until late summer/early fall, and that might be too late.

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04

    [ Parent ]
    Good point
    The Democrats are now in power, and the electorate has a short memory on what caused the "great recession".

    The Democrats ran against Herbert Hoover for 40 years, and the Republicans ran against Jimmy Carter for about 2 decades. Today's Democrats are totally incompetent and stupid for not having continuously blackened the name of George W. Bush in every way possible, very much including by prosecuting members of his Administration for war crimes. It is completely stupid that they are not all running against Bush and - even more unpopular - Cheney.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  

    [ Parent ]
    I'm guessing...
    There will be many times we hit the panic button, and many times we think the worst is over between now and November. I think this is going to be a white-knuckle ride for Dems - a contrast with the previous two election cycles.

    That said, agree with both of you. Things are not looking good right at the moment.  

    [ Parent ]
    white-knuckle ride for the GOP as well...
    ...nobody knows what is going to happen, and GOP has unpredictable tea partiers which may help or hurt them in various ways.  Completely agree that some factors appear unfavorable for the Democrats.
    [ Parent ]
    And let's keep in perspective
    When in history has the party that ran furthest from the center been the party to win, especially this far from the center?

    The tea-party are scary to civilized people everywhere; they will single handedly help us win a few seats simply by being nut-jobs who believe in such weirdness as getting rid of the 17th amendment.  Im shocked they even read past the Bill of Rights to formulate their dogmatic and fundamentalist viewpoint of the constitution.

    They wont be our saving grace, but they'll lessen the blow.

    [ Parent ]
    Parties far from the center winning
    When in history has the party that ran furthest from the center been the party to win, especially this far from the center?

    For Presidential elections, 2004, if you don't believe the election was stolen in Ohio (I do). 1994 for Congress.

    It is FAR from unknown for hard-right candidates to win either the Presidency (Reagan was also very hard-right for 1980) or Congress. The difference now is that the Republican Party is extremely unpopular. But the Democrats haven't been demonizing them the way they should have.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  

    [ Parent ]
    What the fuck was North Korea thinking???......
    What was that about, to sink a South Korean ship?

    The North Koreans were always totalitarian tyrants, but still seemed rational in their behavior toward the South and other nations.  Is that going out the window?

    Just goes to show, you just never know what will happen to turn an election.

    I don't write off the possibility that events could turn yet again to something dramatically more favorable to Democrats.  But that's an abstract nod to humility in being unable to foresee events, and the best hard information we have at present suggests hard times for Democrats.

    Specifically on Rasmussen, I've become much quicker to dismiss their polls and they've gone ever further off the rails, and I'm at the point I don't trust them even slightly without corroboration from a more credible poll.  But yeah, I noticed the slip to 42-56 this morning.

    I, too, am anxious for Gallup today.  So far the latest Gallup drop has actually just been merely in the same ballpark of "float" where Obama's been for a very long time.  We'll see what it is today.

    If Gallup shows a continuing decline, I think the oil spill is starting to seep into the public consciousness much more, that's the main driver lately.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    North Korea
    It is pretty clear the Kim Jong Mentally Il is trying to solidify his strength with the hardliners so his son can take over seeing his health is fading fast.  

    The Chinese need to reign in their pseudo-client state by informing them they will not back them up if they attack the South.  It would be a bloodbath, but the North Koreans would get slaughtered in the end.  They simply do not have the ability to wage a war against a 21st century force when they are still using Stalin era equipment.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Sadly
    That is the kind of foreign policy unknown that would probably help Democrats. Urgh.
    [ Parent ]
    North Korean terrorism
    North Korea has a history of state terrorism, including blowing up a passenger airliner with South Korean officials on board. They have given South Korea ample casus belli since the Armistice that ended the major fighting in the Korean War, but they figure that they will get away with this atrocity, just as they've gotten away with everything else. And they're probably right. It's somewhat comparable to the situation between India and Pakistan. The ISI (Pakistani Intelligence - their equivalent to the CIA) can send terrorists to bomb the Parliament in New Delhi and launch a 3-day reign of terror in Bombay, but India's government is rational and knows that an all-out war against Pakistan would be an unmitigated disaster. Same with South Korea. Because even forgetting that North Korea now has a few nuclear weapons, their conventional missiles could cause lots of damage to Seoul.

    Bottom line, I doubt a war will break out, unless an all-out war is launched by the North. And if that happens, I doubt China will support them.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  

    [ Parent ]
    Don't see it myself
    But anything is possible.

    "U.S. consumer confidence increased for the third consecutive month. The Conference Board, a private research group, said its index of consumer confidence jumped to 63.3 this month, better than the 58.5 expected by economists.

    Separately, U.S. home prices rose 2% in the first quarter from prior-year lows, according to the S&P Case-Shiller home-price indexes."

    http://online.wsj.com/article/...

    [ Parent ]
    I'm looking at the Dow as a leading indicator......
    The Dow has dropped below 10K.  It was over 11K.  My fear is that this either signals or eventually will play a role in causing a dip downward.  Even if it's just a bump in the road, we can't afford any more bumps in the road if we're going to hang on this November.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    The Dow isn't really a leading indicator of much
    Except the jitters on any given day. Although we may have to ask the Republicans again where they stand on that.
    [ Parent ]
    I'm hopeful it's just a correction
    It was up over 50% from its lows. The situation in Spain is still in flux. I could see another week of drops in the DJIA before investors start seeing "value" again.

    But with the domestic growth seen so far, I don't believe there will be a "double-dip". And FWIW, as of Jan, the NY Fed agrees http://wallstreetpit.com/13399...

    and by a year from now in December 2010 the recession probability is only .061%, or about 1/16 of one percent.

    [ Parent ]
    Correction or not
    Its a media issue more than anything else.

    Most people, if the stock market impacted them as a pcoketbook issue.  Already got slammed and lost a ton so this is nothing new.

    However, since the stock market is on the news each day but improvmeent s in GDP or other indicators are once a month at best, the stock markets are "leading indicators" to the common man just based on the shear volume of what business news they hear.

    To me, the Dow just needs to be above 10,000 heading into November.  October is supposedly always a bad months so who knows what will happen in the run-up to elections.

    [ Parent ]
    Corrections last just a short period of time
    though they're often sharp.  
    [ Parent ]
    Depends on "correction"
    A correction is usually a quick drop, but a bounceback is rarely just as immediate.  So if we drop down to 9,000 by the end of June, its not like we should expect any quick recovery.  So the correction itself might be quick but its impact can be long-term.  

    Though with this market none of us can be sure.

    [ Parent ]
    Corrections last just a short period of time
    though they're often sharp.  
    [ Parent ]
    I dont see it yet
    The oil spill cant really hurt Dems that much.  While the left might blame Obama, its kind of  a senseless balme and the WH can come out at any time with a bold plan (even if its late) and still be golden.  They can claim the mantra of "we tried to let business regulate itself, but the govt had to step in due to its incompetence".  It will actually hurt the super-pro-business Republicans I think.

    The stock market I think people have become accustomed to.  Its going to be up and down, crazy swinging for a while.  If the jobs picture can somehow improve it will offset the stock market volatility.  Your take on the current (i.e. this month) economic picture are certainly true though.  I just think the job market can't get much worse.

    Sadly, there's not much that anyone can do about the economy right now.  Heck, I say cut taxes and let Republicans see that doesn't do anything either.  It just needs to take its course which will in fact be years.  

    We are impatient people in America, but there's just not much the govt can do to create jobs when companiues can make HUGE profits while unemployment is at 9-10%.

    [ Parent ]
    Oh, your first sentence is very, very wrong......
    "The oil spill can't hurt Dems that much."

    Um, just like a natural disaster like a hurricane can't hurt Republicans?

    I mentioned the recent friendly fire (i.e., attacks from the left) on Obama to point out, admittedly without having expressly finished my thought, that the attacks now are coming from a broader political spectrum than just Republicans, whose attacks are predictable and therefore dismissed.

    When your own side and relatively neutral observers get down on you, then your political trouble becomes real.

    To me the substantive reality of the oil spill is that Obama really has done ALL the Government can do.  It's simple reality that no one has developed a proven way to stop it quickly this deep under water, and BP is best positioned to do it.  Cmdr. Allen was right responding to the question about replacing BP when he said, "Replace with who?"  And Obama has consulted with many experts and tried to do other stuff that's doable.  But the simple reality is that WE'RE FUCKED.  The oil spill is going to do whatever enormous damage it will do, and it likely can't be stopped very soon, and possibly not for months.

    But reality is not always what the public perceives, as we've learned from the stimulus (economists overwhelmingly agree it's a success) and the bailouts (economists overwhelmingly agree they prevented a depression).  The public is getting impatient and wants the Government to "do something," assuming there MUST be more that can be done, but isn't!

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    The left bitch and moan about everything
    Some of it with justification. Huge difference with Katrina in that if and when the GOP attack on it Dems can respond by attacking BP. The Bushies couldn't blame the wind.
    [ Parent ]
    Man-made disaster vs Natural disaster
    I won't state the obvious, but there is a difference between the oil spill and Hurricane Katrina.

    What we can compare the Obama administration and the Bush administration is the response to these disasters.  For all intents and purposes the Bush administration totally blew it with their response.  It's still too early to make that determination with the Obama administration.  It seems that the Obama administration has done a good job so far.

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04

    [ Parent ]
    There's a fine line between
    highlighting problems and sounding like the sky is falling. To me, the f-bomb used in your note is a synonym for something chicken little would say.
    [ Parent ]
    My f-bomb was about the oil spill itself, not oil spill politics......
    I was talking in that sentence/paragraph about the substantive devastation the oil spill is causing and will still cause, combined with the risk that we can't stop the spill any sooner than we have, and possibly not even for months until BP completes the relief well(s).

    Regarding oil spill politics, no I don't YET think we're fucked.  But there now is a plausible path to getting to there, I can see it from Sarah Palin's window.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    How exactly is an oil spill a natural disaster
    It wasn't weather related.  It was a business, a very pro-Republican-affiliated business, screwing up.  

    Also, no one seems to know what to do during this event.  Everyone agreed that Bush shouldn't have been out to lunch on this.  Obama is very engaged and if an easy solution was available he would totally take it.  There is no easy solution.

    I dont think Katrina and the oil spill are all that parallel.  And I certainly don't know how Obama can be blamed.  I'[m not too worried about environmentalists abandoning Obama any time soon.

    [ Parent ]
    Dark clouds for the Dems???
    Actually this moderate Republican thinks your chances might have improved slightly over the last month.  PA-12 told us the blue dog conservaDems might be not as vulnerable as everyone thought.  I think the tea party types really do not understand that these rural districts might not like health care, but they love their pork.  It is the thing they cling to most of all.

    Really if I was a Democrat, I would be worried about the suburban seats.  We have seen a clear pattern from the NJ, VA, PA and Mass races of the suburban districts swinging hard to the Republican side.  The PA primaries last week had more Republicans than Democrats showing up to vote in the suburban Philadelphia seats even though the Democrats had the hot races and the Republican races were largely insignificant.  This is probably a worse case scenario for progressives as their caucus will lose more progressive members and retain some of the most conservative members.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    I worry a lot about suburban areas as well
    It's the area in many states that swung the hardest our way and provided such big wins.  That along with newly emerging urban areas, but they aren't at risk of flipping, they have demographic changes on their side vs more so just voters moving in a direction over a couple year cycle that may take a step back.
    [ Parent ]
    Which PA districts do you consider Suburban
    As I look through all PA congressional primaries, to me there wasn't an overwhelming lean in the suburban districts (as I would call them suburban).

    Recent election results indicate that the suburbs have swung to the Democratic side in general elections.  To me its not really surprising if Dems don't see the same swing in primaries.  People swinging from Repub to Dem are unlikely to become extremely active in primaries as they are probably more middle of the road voters and not die-hard liberal/progressive activists for life.

    [ Parent ]
    PA is one thing, perhaps VA too
    but in NJ it was actually probably the least suburban areas that swung the hardest to Christie, and in MA the Boston area (including most actual suburbs) was actually Coakley's base of support.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    I have little worry about NJ
    in Congressional races.  It was easy to see that Corzine would lose.  

    As for the Senate/congressional races in NJ, we has been noted, its always been Repub fool's gold.  Maybe a seat or 2 flips in the event of a huge national wave, but NJ just doesn't seem to offer Repubs any big gains.  Not that that will stop them from spending enormously to lose by 5-8 points that they always do...

    [ Parent ]
    Carville
    I don't think it's too damaging when strident leftists on Daily Kos and similar niche websites bitch and moan, but when a highly visible guy identified with the Democratic Party like Carville sharply criticizes the president, that has some negative effect.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  
    [ Parent ]
    They are no better than the rightists who slammed
    even Republicans who criticized Bush.

    My blog
    Twitter
    Scribd
    28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
    [ Parent ]
    I'm talking about political damage
    Not good or bad. :-)

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  
    [ Parent ]
    The unknown: a correction or a double-dip
    So far, the effect here has been mostly a stock market effect. And it's been up over 50% since hitting bottom, so it was due for a correction.

    The rise in jobless claims can be attributed to people coming back into the workforce. There were a lot more discouraged workers.

    The unknown is whether this turns into a double-dip, i.e. for '10 whether the economy stops growing, whether business slows/stops hiring.

    One frustration is the dependence on what happens in Europe. Greece is one thing. But Spain is now asking for IMF "help", ref http://www.businessweek.com/gl... If there is a domino effect, if the UK has to ask for IMF help, then it will be difficult to limit the fallout, as I'd guess banks would stop lending again.

    [ Parent ]
    Disbanding the euro
    Its only a matter of time and hopefully sooner rather than later.  How they all got together in the first place is kind of strange.  Breaking it up should prove the fallacy of linking together stable economies with wackado economies.  

    I mean without the Euro linkage, Greece wouldn;'t mnatter much, and bailing out a Spain would be easier has they would just need to re-vlaue their currency.

    Hope the IMF has a big savings account lol.

    [ Parent ]
    Another reason the UK is in less bad shape
    As the rest of Europe. Staying with Sterling. Personally speaking I'm feeling very smug on that one I can tell you.
    [ Parent ]
    Don't worry about the UK
    They just announced cuts of £6 Billion ($8.6B) in public spending. Chicken feed in US deficit terms but significant over here.
    [ Parent ]
    If the UK needs help
    We can really start worrying.  They avoided the Euro, have changed govts (who promised the cuts conspircay spoke of) and so forth.  If they fall its a truly European diaster.

    Who are UK's biggest trade/biz partners in the EU?  They are the ones we need to keep a solid eye on.

    [ Parent ]
    UK's business partners
    Exports:  US, Germany, Netherlands, Frace, Ireland
    Imports:  Germany, US, China, France, Norway

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
    [ Parent ]
    Norway huh? Cell Phones?
    Given this list I think the UK is safe.  I'm sure Ireland will be Greece at some point, but hopefully they are learning something from what they're seeing now.

    UK seems strongs, and so does Germany.  I know nothing of France or the Netherlands, but haven't heard anything abd about either yet...

    [ Parent ]
    Is the UK importing oil yet?
    I gather their north sea production has long since peaked. If they are importing, Norway is a logical choice (Nokia and Ericsson are of Finland and Sweeden).
    [ Parent ]
    Norway = Oil
    The British import a lot of oil from Norway.

    The UK will survive.  It has the ability to cut itself out of Gordon Brown's mess.  The real cuts will come in the July Budget as austerity is the new cool thing, which has this balanced budget fanatic wishing the same mentality would take hold here.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Norway is oil; Finland is cell phones
       Nokia is from Finland.

    52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
    [ Parent ]
    My geographical economics arent what they used to be
    But still, it looks like the UK is safe, no matter what they are getting from Norway.
    [ Parent ]
    You're WRONG about jobless claims, and I work in that field......
    I'm a lawyer in the unemployment compensation field, and jobless claims speak to people getting laid off from jobs recently, not to people reentering the workforce.  You can't get unemployment benefits without a recent work history (which in most states means you had regular wages or a regular salary for most of the time during the last year-plus from the time of filing your initial claim for unemployment benefits), since the amount of your benefits is tied to the amount of your recent wages/salary.  So discouraged workers can't get benefits, unless they were "discouraged" for only a relatively short time after layoff--but not many people wait for months to file for unemployment, there's no incentive to wait like that except for a slow-dissolving pride (which exists in the workforce, but most people's pride either doesn't dissolve at all or dissolves very fast).

    The unemployment rate can go up with discouraged workers offsetting job growth, and of course that happened in April.  But jobless claims can't do that.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Appreciate the info
    So where have the layoffs been coming from?
    [ Parent ]
    I believe no such breakdown is collected or compiled......
    The jobless claims, I believe, are reported just as a sum figure.  When you file for unemployment, data on where you worked and what you do is collected for purposes of processing your initial and continuing claims and to help you find new work, but I don't know it to be fed into any larger national database, so the breakdown you're asking about isn't available.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    If you're on the front lines
    w/r/t unemployment compensation, then I think you can tell us what you're seeing, who is doing the layoffs, at least in your part of the country.
    [ Parent ]
    But I'm not at BLS, where they would know that......
    Those kinds of numbers would be at BLS, which is not where I work.  I'd be looking at the same data anyone here can find.

    My concern is a meta one, that a 25K jump in one week is striking.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Think of it as a Rasmussen poll outlier
    Until you see confirmation from SurveyUSA it will be back to normal next time around! Hopefully.
    [ Parent ]
    That's the thing
    I don't think its just layoffs.  I think its people joiniung unemployment from other means.
    [ Parent ]
    I made my initial claim the first week of May 2010...
    and the claim period for past wages dates back to January of 2009.  I have worked 1 month since June 2009.  So I think the discouraged worker concept holds far more weight than you give it.
    [ Parent ]
    Isn't it just one week so far?
    And it went down the previous four? I'll wait to see a more significant trend.
    [ Parent ]
    Other trends to watch
    College graduations.  How many kids are coming into the wrokforce who can't find work but have the requisite wage history to qualify for unemployment.

    Discouraged workers.  See post above but it could be real and impacting the figures.

    Rate vs claims.  Know that like the stock market plays in people's minds about the economy, the unemp rate means more than initial claims.  So the rate will play more in people's minds than the initial claims figure.

    Census.  I know nothing of the census, but I recall many economists saying Census hiring helped numbers earleir this year.  Since its not a continuous growth in jobs the new jobs created might dwindle.  And as the Census winds down way down the road, these people will likely re-join unemployment.

    [ Parent ]
    Few college kids qualify for unemployment......
    Most college kids don't work enough to qualify for unemployment.  If you're not working full-time, your wages are probably too few to qualify, especially since college kids almost exclusively work low-wage jobs (at least that was true in my own college years).

    Oh, and a lot of college kids wouldn't even think of applying for unemployment benefits, simply because it wouldn't occur to them.  There's a vague, and largely correct, recognition in the population that unemployment benefits are for people who LOSE jobs they already had, not for people seeking a "real job" after not having wanted one, or not yet been qualified for one, for a long time.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Huh?
    People with no income but are educated wouldn't think of unemployment.  I don't agree with that at all.  The unemployment rate is always much higher in the under 25 crowd than other age demo's.  How exactly are unemployed college students supposed to survive, just give up their careers from the start?

    As for wages, I'm not entirely sure why you believe college students wages don't qualify.  Many do paid internships, co-ops, etc that pay very well, certainly above minimum wage.  Others work their way through school at local jobs at bars, restaurants, etc which can also pay well.  Others might work on campus delivering pizzas and even that would qualify them for unemployment.

    Unemployment is not complicated and an ongoing 10% national rate contradicts the belief that unemplyment is only for those laid off and not those getting it via other means.  Read any state's unemplyment website.  The ways of qualifying have a myriad of exceptions that college gradsa could take care of.

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, but it was a stunningly large jump when NO jump was expected......
    Everyone expected new claims would hold steady, and they went up by 25K into the high 400Ks.  They'd been in the 440Ks.

    Keep in mind 400K is an informal "magic number," a demarcation line between an expansionary economy and a struggling one.  A very strong economy will have weekly initial jobless claims in the low 300Ks, and the record low for the millenium was 270K for a week back in 2005 or so.  So even in a real boom, hundreds of thousands of Americans are getting kicked to the curb every week.

    For new claims to jump 25K in a week is alarming, because that much sudden movement just isn't normal.

    For all that, you're still right to wait for a trend, so I'm not dissing that.  But knowing what I know about how the numbers move, I'm not counting on the subsequent week's report to be back in the 440Ks.  It might be, and I'll breathe a big sigh of relief if it is, but I'm not counting on it.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    As ever
    We shall see. But it could be for any number of reasons and a large spike is often a sign of something abnormal that corrects itself next time around.
    [ Parent ]
    Well I will say I respect your opinion strongly enough to feel better that...
    ...maybe my fear about the midterms isn't as well-placed as I feared it was.

    But man, it's been a tough week for me as a campaign junkie, knowing how much stuff in the news can start affecting voters at this stage......the election is no longer "far away," voters will start letting current events affect their perceptions of their political leadership much more strongly now than a few months ago.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Biggest ticking time bomb
    The biggest ticking time bomb is the number of college graduates without jobs entering into the labor force right now.  Many of them will have loans that will be due around election time.  Many of them have parents who cosigned for those loans whose existence will be on the line also.  If things do not turn around, it will be very problematic to say the least.

    I am curious about hiring patterns as of late though.  From my understanding, we are seeing hiring in most sectors where college graduates would be entering, but slumping in the lower skill set sectors.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Couldn't agree more
    Though the student loan issue to me won't be that big.  Deferrments and forbearance are pretty easy on all govt backed loans.  The private loans, oh well the banks get another bailout.  Such is life sadly.

    I think the job market is certainly improving, but college graduates are too numerous to not have a negative impact on unemployment figures, underemployments, etc.  

    I'd agree hiring seems to be picking up in many sectors requiring college education.  I think some of the labor-intensive and trades work might be some of the jobs we all commonl hear or refer to as the jobs "that might not ever come back".

    [ Parent ]
    Some jobs are gone forever...
    I would like to see some data breaking down the unemployment rate based off level of education.  I suspect unemployment is still low to mid single digits for college graduates, but double digits for those with less education.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
    [ Parent ]
    Who knows
    Common sense would say that's the case, but geography would also matter plenty as well.  

    BLS has stas about jobless rate by industry, but we still can't tell education level.  

    Alot of data could be counterintuitive too.  College educated people are more likely to be younger just based on the fact that college education wasn't so widely accessible 40 years ago.  yet unemployment rates dip as the age groupings get older.

    http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/...

    [ Parent ]
    At least that doesn't affect the unemployment rate statistic......
    The official unemployment rate includes a seasonal adjustment, and I'm pretty sure that adjustment includes high school/college graduations in May as an adjustment factor (there are bunch of such factors, such as seasonal December hiring for Christmas, or seasonal construction industry dropoff in winter, etc.).

    That doesn't make college kids or their parents feel any better, but at least it doesn't affect the immediate-run unemployment rate for news consumption.

    Hey, clinging to anything I can think of!

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    LOL
    Well i guess every cloud ha s asilver lining.

    Though the seasonal adjustment now for college students (I'm actually not sure there is one or that its that big) would go away by fall which would cause the rate to go up as the election approached.

    [ Parent ]
    That's not 100% accurate
    Sure, the new graduates that don't have jobs are included in the unemployment rate, but newly created or open jobs that are filled by a college graduate as opposed to an official unemployed individual does keep the rate up.  In the RTP area, many companies will roll the dice on the new graduates as a cost savings over a seasoned, but unemployed, candidate.

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04
    [ Parent ]
    Fair point, but that doesn't speak to the point I was making......
    My point was about BLS' seasonal adjustment as applied to the skew caused by academic graduations in May and June.  UNadjusted, there is always an "artificial," or "seasonal," unemployment spike caused by a bunch of graduates new to the workforce who don't have a job lined up yet.  Even in a boom, there's a seasonal spike, if only because the availability of jobs is offset by graduates being pickier about what jobs they'll consider and accept.  So new academic graduates have a higher unemployment rate as a group than the rest of the workforce, and that marginally pushes up the unemployment rate compared to what it would be otherwise.  That doesn't the official unemployment rate always goes up in May and June; it could simply go down less than it would otherwise.  But it has a marginal effect upward that isn't reflective of the economy's strength, so BLS makes an "adjustment" using historical data for baselines.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Wasn't PA-12 just one week ago
    There will be ebbs and flows until the election.  The best strategy is not to get too high at good news or too low with bad.

    I'm more concerned with the administration's political strategy and tactics.  Obama came out with that great analogy of not letting the people who drove the economy into the ditch back behind the wheel.  But there was no follow-up, and this lack of follow-up has occurred to much in this administration.  They need to pattern their approach to the campaign after Reagan's in 82, which focused on asking people to stay the course and blame Carter and the Democrats for the "mess" he inherited, which limited Republican losses in congress.

    [ Parent ]
    Agree
    Weird panic this morning.
    [ Parent ]
    The PA-12 comment is a good point
    Charlie Cook had a good column this morning suggesting that all the favorable winds the Republicans have at their back won't count for anything unless they can run decent campaigns, which Burns certainly failed to do.

    It's important to remember that even with the perceived turn toward bad news we are facing this week, Critz would have still kicked ass.  

    [ Parent ]
    Charlie Cook
    He's like the Tim McCarver of politics.  Pointing out the blatantly obvious in an after-the-fact manner.  
    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, but in fairness to Cook...
    I thought too before PA-12 that this was likely to be a nationalized election where the Republicans would be able to take advantage of anti-Congress anti-Obama sentiment and overcome the Dems advantage on better run campaigns. PA-12 was certainly an eye opener to me in that regard. Reading Cook's column made me personally feel better that someone who is regarded as one of the better political prognosticators essentially made the same mistake.

    I think Cook is not as strong as he was a couple of years ago, but I think your criticism might be a tad unfair.  

    [ Parent ]
    Not really...
    Saying campaigns and or candidates matter is pretty common sense.  Well duh.

    Tomorrow he could point out Obama is unlikely to win Alaska in the 2012 election if Palin is on the Republican ticket.  Kind of another "well duh" comment too.

    Didn't Cook predict Burns to win PA-12?

    [ Parent ]
    Cook changed the PA-12 rating twice in 3 days!......
    Cook moved it from tossup to lean R on May 11, then flipped it back to tossup on May 13.  I have no idea what could have prompted such erratic changes in ratings, but he can't feel proud of that.  Nothing happened that week to justify TWO ratings changes.

    I think Cook has emotionally invested himself in thinking Dems are in largely irreversible trouble, and he got himself into some trouble in PA-12 because of that mentality.  In all fairness to him, he talks to a LOT of insiders on both sides, and I'm guessing there might be a lot of doom-and-gloom among Beltway Democrats about the environment.  We're nothing if not the political equivalent of Chicago Cubs fans.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Obsession with nationalizing races...
    The last few cycles seem to have got everyone obsessed with nationalizing races.  PA-12 proved that nationalizing races only goes so far.  At a certain point, local habits bounce to the forefront.  This district loves welfare more than anything else.  That is why I am not convinced the blue dogs are going down in flames.  Many of these districts like PA-12 love their pork and will accept healthcare or whatever if it means retaining their pork.  

    Cook made an assumption that most others made.  Cook was right in making his assumptions based off PVI and the climate.  The problem is that PVI only goes so far.  This election is going to be the election where PVI is going to lose its luster.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    PVI had luster? LOL <n/t>

    [ Parent ]
    PVI worshipers
    There are a lot of PVI worshipers here is my point.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
    [ Parent ]
    I know, I know lol

    [ Parent ]
    PVI is one useful stat
    but it overemphasizes presidential elections.

    What happened to the poster who was working on PBI (which I believe stood for Partisan Brand Index), which took incumbency and voting for lower offices as well as president into account?

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  

    [ Parent ]
    PA12
    "Conventional wisdom: it is a fickle, fickle thing. The latest example of the incredible lightness of opinion in today's media and political climate is the reaction to the results of the race in Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district. Politicians and pundits, right- as well as left-leaning, are taking it as evidence that Republican hopes of retaking the House this November are too optimistic. That may turn out to be the case, but PA-12 is hardly enough evidence to warrant the conclusion."

    from:
    http://www.thedemocraticstrate...

    Joe Cooper

    [ Parent ]
    No, the best strategy is to bounce wildly between panic and elation...
    ...which is the secret to my success in life, and the reason I have such a beautiful shopping cart and rent-free space under the Roosevelt Bridge!

    (Snark.)

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Exactly. Why haven't they been doing this continuously since 2008?
    They need to pattern their approach to the campaign after Reagan's in 82, which focused on asking people to stay the course and blame Carter and the Democrats for the "mess" he inherited, which limited Republican losses in congress.

    Why do the Democrats suck so badly at strategy? Sure, individual campaigns have been excellent, but right now, Cheney and GW Bush's names are still mud and the Republicans are still unpopular. Why hold back from running against them all the time?

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  

    [ Parent ]
    Here's the difference: the country had a Democratic House, thus split government......
    The GOP had Reagan in the White House and a Republican Senate, but Democrats led by Massachusetts liberal Tip O'Neill running the House.  And O'Neill was one of the more high-profile Speakers as far as garnering news attention is concerned, I'd say in my 42-year lifetime 2nd behind Gingrich (and ahead of Pelosi) in that regard.

    That we have total one-party rule now makes it harder to blame things on the opposition party.

    Oh, and national morale was worse at the end of the Carter years than at the end of the Dubya years.  I was just a kid, but man I will never forget the constant drumbeat in the news about 20% inflation, 20% interest rates, and the Iran hostage crisis.  As bad as our "Great Recession" has been, I'm not sure it compares in having such a big impact on the national psyche as the trio of disasters toward the end of Carter's term.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    First of all, parties are defined most by presidents
    NOT by Congress. The Democratic Party campaigned against Herbert Hoover for almost 5 decades. The Republicans campaigned against Carter for about 2 decades. You're telling me the Democrats couldn't figure out a way to campaign effectively against Bush and Cheney for at least one?

    I remember 1980 vividly, as I was a freshman and sophomore in high school at the time. We will have to agree to disagree. I think that morale was at least as bad in 2008 as in 1980. Sure, it would have been worse if the 9/11 terrorist atrocities had occurred in 2008, but they and the 2nd U.S.-led war against Iraq were part of the Bush Administration's legacy, just as the Iran hostage crisis was part of Carter's. And while there was high inflation, in American terms, at the end of the Carter Administration, we weren't staring into the kind of abyss that was threatening us in 2008.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  

    [ Parent ]
    eh

    The oil spill is IMHO a metaphor in the economic game.  Something is going on which is eating up the wealth generation and is happening where where average people can't quite see it or stop it or understand it.  But it's hitting the economic equivalent of our beaches and marshes and food supply.  And the end is not in sight nor the cost in real wealth and years of productive work life.  The fear has begun that it will kill the 'ecosystem' and never end.

    My best guess is that it's the banks and other parts of t he economy very quietly absorbing so far deferred real estate losses, e.g. commercial real estate.

    My feeling is that both sides are getting hit about the same by this.  I'm sticking with my prediction that the losers of this election cycle are relatively conservative Democrats who haven't run further left and those Republicans who haven't or haven't been able to run off to the right.

    Being center Right, i.e. pro-business 'fiscal conservatives' and passive/conformist on social rights and foreign policy, used to be the safest positioning of all but is currently the recipe for defeat.

    As for all this talk about the end of the Euro and such, that's not happening.  Yes, the northern Europeans are going to struggle to pay for the big economic shift in southern Europe from industrial to postindustrial economies.  But the consequences of not doing it are worse than doing it, and so they'll bite the bullet.  For all the crowing the British are actually beginning to pay for staying out and their lack of discipline and holding off on developing real postindustrial industries, for indulging the financial speculation economy which Labour became hostage to.  They're going to have to ride that and the pound down into the the dumps, to fiscal reality.  Relative to e.g. Germany, they're just a different version of Greece.


    [ Parent ]
    SC-Gov: PPP confirms a big Nikki Haley lead
    And Sheheen up 36-30

    [ Parent ]
    SC-Sen - Demint in trouble?
    http://scindex.blogspot.com/20...

    Locall polling from SCIndex (never heard of it) has DeMint up 50-43 over Rawls.  Generic Gov 46R-44D.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    Too much to hope for, I think

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah
    Don't see it either. Hang on a sec, weird to be agreeing with you so much lately Paleo! Peace.
    [ Parent ]
    Unfortunately, I agree
    But of all the Republican incumbents, he's the one I'd most love to see out on his ass.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  
    [ Parent ]
    Queue to Ras poll with 45 point Demint lead in
    3.. 2.. 1..

    28, Unenrolled, MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    Ken Lewis is new Marshall campaign chair
    KS- Sen What Tiahrt did wrong is he is the wrong kind of conservative for this cycle
    To answer the question you presume Tiahrt is asking himself No he didn't out teabag Moran his whole career. That's why he is losing

    While Tiahrt might be to Moran's right on social issues he is an appropriator and a spender.

    The whole Tea Party movement is against spending and taxes. A lot of them could care less about abortion, guns,  immigration or forgiegn policy.

    By being a porker Tiahrt finds himself in the awkward position of being the wrong kind of right winger. If abortion or "gays" or any of that nonsense was driving the right in this election Tiahrt would be winning.

    But he is the kind of establishment Republican the Tea Party folks want to get rid of even though he is way right on all those hot button issues.

    Like Sen Bennet found out it is the wrong cycle to be thw wrong kind of conservative Republican.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...

    I dont think that's true at all
    The whole Tea Party movement is against spending and taxes. A lot of them could care less about abortion, guns,  immigration or forgiegn policy.

    They just dont view those as the problems with Obama, yet.

    [ Parent ]
    On the face of it, I tend to disagree
    I think that what's happening in Kansas is that the more moderate Republican is more popular because there are more moderate conservatives than extremists in Kansas. That's been a dynamic in many elections in the last x-number of years in that state.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  
    [ Parent ]
    Laugh or cry?
    Dudley leads Kitzhaber!

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    Probably laugh
    which should be confirmed tomorrow, as

    Rasmussen Reports will release new numbers on Oregon's Senate race tomorrow.

    If it shows what's his name some dude (Jim Huffman) running within 10 of Wyden, when we'll know for sure the Rassmussen books are cooked on this poll.  

    [ Parent ]
    Oh I can see him finding it that close
    I bet he has Wyden under 50 percent.
    [ Parent ]
    This is the kind of thing that makes Rassmussen really hard to defend

    [ Parent ]
    Anyone
    who is subscribing know how well Dudley's doing with liberals?

    In Arkansas, Boozman had 40% of liberals or blacks...

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    [ Parent ]
    I'm the one who posted the AR-Sen crosstabs, and they were...
    ...Boozman getting 33% of liberals and 42% of blacks, these in his trial heat 66-28 over Lincoln.

    This AR-Sen poll and the post-primary KY-Sen poll are the ones that have made me disregard Rasmussen altogether except when they corroborate someone else, like in the case of the SC-Gov Republican primary.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    I'm getting a 404 error for the link
    Maybe someone at Rass finally decided they went too far.

    Outlier heaven.  

    [ Parent ]
    CA-Gov: Gingrich backs Whitman
    Do any California voters care who Gingrich endorses? n/t


    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  
    [ Parent ]
    Probably not, although he is (very randomly) leading in PPP's 2012 CA GOP poll


    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    [ Parent ]
    Gallup for DCCyclone
    48-44 (48-45)

    No sweat.

    Linky
    [ Parent ]
    Still within the margin of error
    Not bad, but not good.

    The thing the Democrats need to be worried about is the approval rate in several key states like Ohio and Pennsylvania.  Obama has been consistently polling even or negative when it comes to approval/disapproval in both of these states, especially Pennsylvania.  It is quite possible the Republicans can win 20 percent of the seats they need to retake the House in those two states.  

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    8 seats flipping in OH/PA?
    Doomsday scenario don't you think?
    [ Parent ]
    Unlikely but possible...
    I would actually say its closer to 6 seats, but 8 is not out of the question.  Remember that there are a total of 8 seats in the two states taht the Republicans held before the 2006 election and there is one seat, PA-11, that has an incumbent who could go down in flames very easily.

    The GOP could easily win PA-3, PA-7, PA-8 and PA-11 then go and win OH-1, OH-16 and OH-18.  Throw in PA-4, PA-10, PA-12 and PA-17, and you have eight.  If the Democrats lose 6 or more seats in PA and Ohio, the game is over.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Ok that's definitely doomsday
    In PA, I could see 7 and 11 being worrisome.  I'm feeling good about Dahlkemper in 3 and Pat Murphy in 8.  Holden in 17 has withstood more waves that should have taken him out to sea but he always seems to win.  The others who knows.  I jsut don't see a big Republican wave in PA this year, I don't even see the catalyst to be honest.  
    [ Parent ]
    Political perfect storm...
    You need a perfect storm to take 4 seats in a state the size of Pennsylvania and we might have one brewing for several reasons:

    1)  Obama's approval/disapproval numbers are at or below the national average.  Scary considering Obama won PA by 10 percent in 2008.  Outside of Philadelphia County, his numbers are terrible.

    2)  55 to 60 percent of PA residents oppose healthcare depending on the poll.  Lots of old people who are being scared about Medicare cuts.  

    3)  The Governor's race.  Anyone who believes Onorato is going to get the Rendell Republicans, who largely voted for Corbett, is dreaming.  There are a lot of voters who went for Cobrett and Obama in 2008.  Rendell nor Obama can drag people across the finish line this time.

    4)  Democrats are overextended.  The Democrats have picked up five seats from the Republicans since 2006.  A lot of these seats they picked up because of corruption (PA-7 and PA-10) while others they picked up because of the Democrats did extremely well at the top of the ballot(PA-8).  

    Not saying its a complete disaster, but it has the potential to be a complete disaster if given the chance.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Well....
    1.  I'm not big on polling in PA for Obama.  When we talk about Obama's victory, it has always been about new voters and younger voters, especilally in urban areas.  To me these would both seem to be under-polled and/or under-responding groups.  Approval ratings just dont mean that much right now.  Obama would win PA again in another landslide, and I don't think there's any evidence to the contrary.

    2.  The polling on HCR is ok, but not sure how it helps Republicans.  I mean Holden and Altmire voted against HRC didnt they?  How can Republicans gain traction against these 2.  Holden's independence from his party has always been his selling point, it couldn't really hurt him this time.  I dont see how Kanjo's vote could hurt him (voting yes) considering he will be battling Barletta.  He either had to vote for it or acknowlege Barletta's conservatism was correct and vote NO.

    3.  While I don't totally disagree, certainly Corbett is the favorite.  That being said, I don't think we should expect to see surge in straight R ticket voting.  I also think Rendeel Republicans are in many ways the new Democratic party.  They are now Democrats and I don't think Corbett nor Onorato offers much to the everyday voter.  I've never been more dis-interested in a governor race in my whole life.

    4.  We can't always say D's are overextended.  Soemtimes people get into office and do a good enough job to warrant the seat.  Its why North Dakota has all D representation but once they allr etire ND will have all Republicans.  Holden is an example of that.

    Rendell and Obama can absolutley help people this cycle, its silly to assume they can't.  The Philly burbs didn't suddenly become rural Oklahoma.  Rendell may not be popular, but who is?  In PHilly he still is, and the burbs he's still better than almost anyone else.  Obama can also help in the burbs and Philly.  And don't be sruprised to see Biden and CLinton in Western PA doing what they do.  Clinton especially can help Critz and to a lesser extent Holden and Kanjo.

    [ Parent ]
    Obama's unpopularity
    sure helped Congressman Burns to a comfortable win in PA-12. Oh, wait... :-)

    Snark aside, I follow your line of reasoning but think it has no more than about a 20% chance of coming to pass.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  

    [ Parent ]
    That's where slick Willy comes in
    Say what you want about the Clintons, they're pretty much the only national Democrats who can get any sort of traction with rural white Democrats that are trending Repub.

    Don't get me wrong, I dont think Clinton helped Critz that much, but I do expect some close races this fall, where his help with fundraising events, appearances and some campaigning could help some.

    [ Parent ]
    Forgot OH-15
    Snark

    Seriously, Ohio and Pennsylvania are huge states in terms of the House map this year, of that you are correct.  And I can see why you're freaking out about Obama being even or a few points under in Pennsylvania because he won by 11% in 2008.  Obama only won by 5% in Ohio, so for him to be even here is really not a huge difference from his 2008 performance.  The Republican top of the ticket in Ohio, with Kasich and Portman, isn't expected to be all that strong, probably much less formidable than Corbett & Toomey will be in Pennsylvania.  (It's more Corbett that I'm worried about than Toomey, Toomey's just too conservative)

    If I had to rank the Ohio/Pennsylvania seats in order of most likely to flip from blue to red, it would be this.  

    PA-11 (projected flip)
    OH-1 (projected flip)
    OH-15
    PA-7
    PA-10
    OH-16
    PA-4
    PA-8
    OH-16
    PA-17
    PA-3
    OH-13

    Just for the record, I would slot Gerlach's seat in PA-6 between OH-1 and OH-15.  Patrick Tiberi's seat in OH-12 I would slot between OH-16 and PA-4.

    Ultimately, I don't think the Republicans get more than +5 in OH/PA at the absolute most, in which they get PA-11, PA-7, OH-1, OH-15, make sure they hold PA-6 and OH-12, and then pull an upset somewhere else down the list.  That's about as rosy a scenario as Team Red is likely to see.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    What is your rationale for PA-6 being more
    vulnerable to flipping than OH-15? I understand that PA-6 is more democratic than the 15th is Republican, but it should be a Republican year. If the Dems could not take Gerlach out in 06 or 08, I don't see how it happens with a Republican tide at his back in 2010. Gerlach will also probably out raise manan 2 to 1 considering he has already done that while being in the race for 3 months compared to trivedi being in longer. Compare that to Kilroy having about the same amount of cash on hand as Stivers and the fact that Kilroy almost lost to Steve in 2008 and I fail to see 6th being a more likely take over target than the 15th.  
    [ Parent ]
    Gerlach doesn't really want it
    I don't expect him to run that hard.  He clearly wanted out this cycle to be governor, but he wasn't going to win that so he's back in.  He fought hard to keep his spot in 2006 and 2008.

    2010 will also be the first year a strong SE Pa candidate was running for Senate.  Not as good as Rendell in 2006, but Sestak might have decent enough coattails to help Trivedi.  Also, I would sell Trivedi's fundraising short this early on (he can court Indian Americans, I'm guesisng that's somewhat untapped given their 0 representation in Congress).

    Lastly, I'm wondering if Trivedi might be more appealing in ChesCo than 2006 and 2008 candidates.  It seems Trivedie will win Montgomery easily, but the key is he will either have to (1) masimize gains in MontCo and cede ChestCo to Gerlach or (2) maximize in ChestCo to minimize Gerlach';s advantage there while trying to hold MontCo where it was in 2006/2008.  

    [ Parent ]
    That explains while PA-6 will be competitive
    not why PA-6 is more likely to flip than OH-15. I know you didn't do Stephen's rankings, but it would seem, given the Republican nature of the cycle, that a race with a freshman where both candidates have similar CoH would be a more likely takeover than a race with a Republican incumbent who currently has, and probably will continue to have, a cash advantage.  
    [ Parent ]
    Actually I disagree with the premise of Republican cycle
    I don't see a national wave.
    I don't see catalysts for huge Republiocan gains right now.
    I don't see OH and PA swinging hard right.
    I don't think gains made in many states are temporary.
    I do think Obama still has pull, big time.
    I do think Clinton (Bill) can help with white Democrats.
    I do think Dem governors in many state can help (Rendell, Strickland especially with turnout).
    I do think Dem's have the best candidates they can have in many races (the primaries have gone pretty well I think).
    I do think Dems can re-take a few seats to offset some losses.

    I know the economy sucks.  People hate illegal immigration.  People hate HCR in a lot of places.

    Elections start after Labor Day.  It will NOT be hard to remind people where the recession came from.  It will not be hard to link people to the Bush economic policies (see the anti-Specter ad with him being buddy with GWB).  

    Illegal immigration will play where it will play, but it is not the major issue in most races.  There isn't much that can be done on immigration for D's.  If this hurts a few seats, it hurts.  Dems cannot win on this issue in areas where people are already "mad as hell about illegal immigration and not going to to take it any more".

    HCR is done.  People who voted for it run on its passage, people who voted against it will have that to tout.  Alot of these vulnerable D's voted against HCR.

    [ Parent ]
    Okay
    Well, as I'm sure you know, the CW is against you. We will see in November I guess.
    [ Parent ]
    Its not CW
    That would greatly misuse the term Wisdom.

    Its more of a media scenario to get people to pay attention and poltiicians a way tod rum up $$$$.  Nothing more.  Primaries are in the spring, generals in the Fall.  The summer has proven to be not so meanigful to mid-term elections.

    I'll stand by my point of saying right now there is no evidence of a Republican wave.  I wish the elctions were today to be quite honest.  They would re-affirm D majorities in both houses for sure.

    [ Parent ]
    Charlie Cook and Stu Rothenberg
    have a bit of wisdom between them. So if the election were held today you think Dems wouldn't lose 2 dozen seats? In terms of evidence, how about the polling numbers for the popularity of HCR and the stimulus? What about Dems being basically even in the generic ballot without factoring in enthusiasm?  What about the percentage of the country that thinks we are on the wrong track? How about the likelyhood that unemployment will still be above 8% on election day? I don't think that Republicans will retake either house, although I'm not ruling out the House, but I there is evidence of a very bad cycle for Democrats coming down the pipe. Again, we will see what happens in November.  
    [ Parent ]
    Sestak's ads were brilliant
    But remember that they worked in a Democratic primary, where the words "George W. Bush" are really poison. I agree that it's extremely important for the Democrats to remind the general electorate about Bush and Cheney, but we do have to keep in mind that that's more effective when aimed at a strictly Democratic audience.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  
    [ Parent ]
    Well obviously.
    But linking to Bush and his politics is gold for D's.

    And let's not forgot linking McCain to Bush worked pretty well too.  So did linking John Sununu to Bush in NH Sen.  And Libby Dole to Bush in NC Sen.  And Norm Coleman to Bush in MN Sen.  And Gordon Smith in OR.  And so on and so on.

    I could do the results of linking Republican incumbents and candidates in open seats to Bush as well, but I'm pretty sure you know how that worked out.

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah in 2008 when
    Bush was still in the White House.
    [ Parent ]
    To Jfindl1
    But if you guys try to blame the way the economy is on Obama then I think it is only fair we bring Bush back up to show that in fact Obama is not to blame for the high unemployment rate. I think we probably disagree  on that but I think that could help Democrats.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    I'm not disagreeing on where the blame lies
    merely that running against Bush in 2008 is a bit different, and a lot more effective, than running against him when he is not in charge in 2010. It is politics and all is fair, my point is simply that it won't be nearly as effective as in 2008.
    [ Parent ]
    I couldn't disagree more
    Bush is still a feather in our cap.  We can use him forever...
    [ Parent ]
    I encourage you to keep using him then
    Honestly, the Dems will be able to get some mileage out of him this cycle. Forever, is a long time, I don't think people heard a lot about Nixon after 1976 or Carter after 1982, but you can try it if you like.  
    [ Parent ]
    Also just to make sure.
    You couldn't disagree more with "running against Bush in 2008 is a bit different, and a lot more effective, than running against him when he is not in charge in 2010. It is politics and all is fair, my point is simply that it won't be nearly as effective as in 2008."  right?
    [ Parent ]
    The fact that Gerlach was interested in higher office
    hardly suggests that he doesn't want to win his reelection campaign or that he won't fight hard and smart, as always. I find that argument really, really weak.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  
    [ Parent ]
    He left his congressional re-election efforts
    to go into a race where he was at least a 10-1 underdog.  When fundraising didn't line up, he dropped out of that race.  After a day or so he then decided to get back into this race.

    He's sick of traveling to DC for Congress and wanted to be governor, his actions showed it but he never said it (smartly).

    Its an opinion.  None of his actions point to him wanting to stay in Congress.  If the expected R tide carries him through, so be it, but it won't be because he runs his best campaign yet.

    [ Parent ]
    Is he really sick of traveling to DC?
    it's not even that far away for him...

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    It is total opinion
    not backed up by fact.
    [ Parent ]
    Like I said
    Its based on his actions.  He entered a race where he was at least a 10-1 underdog just to get out of the primary.  He never polled well or had any success with statewide fundraising, from the very start.

    Who enters a race they have 0 chance to win with little statewide fundraising prowess if they like their current job?  

    [ Parent ]
    Still opinion
    "He entered a race where he was at least a 10-1 underdog just to get out of the primary." How do you know he did it just to exit his primary? I'm sure he had a plan to build statewide support and get an upgrade from his current position, it obviously failed. What isn't obvious is if a guy who has been in his seat for 8 years "doesn't like his current job."
    [ Parent ]
    I can speak to Indian-American fundraising......
    I'm Indian-American and have been involved before helping Indian-American candidates, including for Congress.

    Yeah, the money is there, easily in the hundreds of thousands for a Congressional candidate with a plausible candidacy and a willingness to hit the phones and go the extra step of massaging some massive egos in the older immigrant faction of politically active Indian-Americans.  That egotistical older immigrant faction thankfully has become less critical as my generation (I'm 42) has reached or is reaching middle-age and has more earning power and donation ability.  But fortunately the Indian-American population itself is growing, while plausible Indian-American candidacies has not, so for a given strong candidate there's more money than there was in 1994 when I first started connecting with Indian-American Democratic activists.  A candidate who was a hard-working fundraiser could easily raise several hundred thousand dollars back then from the community, and I imagine a LOT more could be raised today.

    Ami Bera has done a bang-up job of this in his race against Dan Lungren.  I think Trivedi has done well, and his win in a tough, competitive primary will help.  Frankly I had initially shrugged off Trivedi as Some Dude early on, viewing Pike as the presumptive nominee.  So color me impressed.  That said, I was impressed in 2008 that Ashwin Madia ripped the MN-03 nomination away from Terri Bonoff, only to give him $600 and watch him get creamed by Erik Paulsen.  Trivedi at least won a tough primary with a broad base of anonymous voters and not just the hearts of a bunch of activists, so that makes him more credible than Madia, but still this is an unlikely pickup this particular year.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    I wouldn't place PA-10 so far high
    Carney seems like a really strong politician, and he can say "I'm such an effective bipartisan worker that the Republicans wanted me on their side." Also Marino doesn't seem as strong as the NRCC wants us to believe.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    PA-8 is the least likely to flip

    [ Parent ]
    Point being sky isn't falling
    Notice economic confidence up 2 points. Smack in-between Gallup's 52 week high and low on the question. Hiring up two points, 29-22% over letting go. All flies in the face of claims the bottom has fallen out this week.

    http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx

    [ Parent ]
    Which is consistent with other consumer confidence indicators
    http://blogs.barrons.com/stock...

    Consumer sentiment apparently brightened for the third month in a row in May, the Conference Board just reported, with its index of confidence rising to 63.3 from 57.7 in April, ahead of economists' projection of 58.8, and a bigger gain than the University of Michigan/Reuters report a week and a half ago.

    The reading was "weak by historical standards," said the Board, but the trend shows consumer sentiment "gaining some traction."

    To me "traction" means that momentum in consumer confidence can last through a temporary correction.

    [ Parent ]
    What I'm looking for is refutation of Rasmussen......
    Rasmussen shows a sharp downward trend in Obama's job approval, and in fact today's 42-56 is a record low in their polling.

    What I'm looking for is proof through Gallup that in fact Obama continues treading water, and that is the case.

    So Ras continues to jump ever-bigger sharks.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Rass is a partisan and biased pollster
    That's all the refutation you need.  "Likely voters"?  Makes it easier for them to narrow their screen to get the desired result.  Who the hell knows who's a likely voter when it's not even a presidential election year.
    [ Parent ]
    Thank you! I do feel better for the day! (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    OH-18 (Space's district) officially goes to recount
    http://www.dispatch.com/live/c...

    Bob Gibbs' people have declared victory, but a mandatory recount happens by law. Doubt it changes anything, but maybe it causes some bad feelings on the Republican side.

    VA-05
    Yummy yummy cat fud! Isn't Bradley Rees already running as a teabaggy independent? Oh how great it would be to have two!

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    From PPP Polling
    A little old but...

    http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

    Politico reports  that in Virginia's 5th Congressional District Tea Party activist Jeffrey Clark will run as an independent if moderate Republican Robert Hurt wins his party's nomination to take on Tom Perriello.

    How serious would a Clark candidacy be? When we polled the district in early February we found that a generic Tea Party candidate would pull 19%. Perriello received 44% and Hurt 27% in such a scenario.



    "Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, but Clark's not generic...
    And I don't know how many people will take him seriously as a candidate when push comes to shove.

    [ Parent ]
    CA-SENATE: PPP poll confirms SurveyUSA result. Fiorina up big.
    And Whitman up 25
    [ Parent ]
    The power of positives ads with respected endorsers
    The tone of Carly and Meg commerials now make them look like mainstream and trustable.

    Meg had her circus geek moment, and may do so again, but when she went after Poizner like a lunatic, she dropped.  Now that Poizner is uber-negative on her, he tanks.

    No coincidence here.  People don't like the looney ads.  They like sane people.

    [ Parent ]
    Good, that helps Boxer......
    I know early polling doesn't always mean squat, but I'm more worried by Campbell's stronger candidate profile, as reflected in his stronger general trial heat polling than Fiorina, than Fiorina's huge money advantage.  Plus, Fiorina as a novice candidate will be more exposed in a general election campaign; even as a McCain campaign surrogate in 2008 she put her foot in her mouth badly and had to be muzzled.  The 1994 Huffington example showed that a Republican can't just buy a seat, (s)he has to be a good campaigner with a moderate profile.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    PPP confirms SUSA CA-Sen GOP primary
    Fiorina up 20 points.

    http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

    NY-Sen: fmr. Bronx prosecutor to challenge Gillibrand in Dem primary
    Oh look
    Blanche Lincoln is trying to make herself a foe of Wall Street even though she's allowing the senate to strip her derivatives bill in Conference. God I hope she loses like Arlen Specter.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    SSP Daily Digest: 5/25 (Morning Edition) | 217 comments

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