10:48pm: Calling all Swingnuts! Let’s make ’em hear us over here!
10:40pm: LOL – Tim Burns wins his primary, according to the AP. Lucky guy gets to face off again against Rep.-elect Mark Critz in November.
10:37pm: Check out AR-Sen – Lincoln is now down to 45-41 over Halter. DC Morrison is at a surprisingly sprightly 14% – a rare over-performance from pre-election polling for a classic “third wheel” candidate. A little over 27% of the vote is in. Also, John Boozman just slipped below the 50% mark, while Jim Holt! is in second place.
10:33pm: Also for what it’s worth, the Swing State Project is calling PA-12 for Democrat Mark Critz.
10:29pm: DRUDGE SIREN ALERT: In PA-12, Tim Burns has conceded to Democrat Mark Critz! Woo hoo!
10:26pm: Crossing off another race off this list, the AP has called PA-17 for Tim Holden, who’s sitting on 67% of the vote. On the GOP side, David Argall leads Frank Ryan by 35-33 with 79% of the vote in.
10:24pm: The AP calls PA-11 for Paul Kanjorski… The dude’s currently sitting at 50.1% of the vote. Not exactly a ringing vote of confidence!
10:22pm: In PA-04, the AP has called the race for attorney Keith Rothfus, who obliterated NRCC favorite Mary Beth Buchanan.
10:20pm: With 233 precincts reporting, Critz leads Burns by 54-43. Our county analysis tells us that Critz is running ahead of where he needs to be in order to win this.
10:19pm: The AP has called the Pennsylvania Democratic primary for Joe Sestak!
10:17pm: Possible upset special? In AR-02, Joyce Elliott is leading House Speaker Robbie Wills by 42-28 with just 7% in. (Of course, if no one hits 50%, this sucker is going to a runoff.)
10:15pm: The SSP team is projecting Joe Sestak to win his primary by around 79,000 votes.
10:08pm: The AP has called two GOP House races in Arkansas, even though only a small chunk of the vote has been counted. In AR-01, Rick Crawford gets the nod, and in AR-02, Tim Griffin does as well. Dem contests in both races are still very much undecided.
10:04pm: Damn, son – the AP calls KY-Sen for Jack Conway! Woohah!
10:02pm: With 5% now in, Blanche Lincoln is up 46-41 on Bill Halter, with DC Morrison taking 13%. John Boozman on the GOP side is at 53%, just outside of runoff territory.
10:01pm: PA-06: Manan Trivedi up 60-40 with 37% in.
10:00pm: On the GOP side in PA-17, semi-hyped David Argall is beating Frank Ryan 41-32 with a little over half the vote in. Tim Holden is at a much healthier 70-30 over Dow-Ford.
9:58pm: Rep. Todd Platts (PA-19), who we theorized might have pissed off the teabaggers by wanting to become head of the GAO, is handily dispatching his opponent 72-26 (with less than 10% of the vote in).
9:57pm: Was PA-12 more like NY-23 than we thought? Establishment fave Tim Burns is only leading angry outsider (and 2008 nominee) Bill Russell 54-46 in the primary.
9:56pm: The AP has called the PA-Gov Dem primary for (unsurprisingly) Dan Onorato. He’ll take on Tom Corbett in the fall.
9:52pm: In PA-03, it’s a dogfight between the two dudes who spent the most money: Mike Kelly’s at 29% and Paul Huber’s at 28%, though Huber lead earlier. About 44%’s been counted.
9:51pm: With 40% of the vote in, Sestak now has a narrow lead over Specter, 51-49. But Specter isn’t winning many counties, and the remaining vote seems favorable to the challenger.
9:50pm: Mark Critz is doing well in PA-12. He’s up 58-40 with 21% reporting. Much of that is from Dem-friendly areas, but our model shows him improving 1.3% over recent Dem performance in the district.
9:48pm: Over in PA-10, hyped GOP recruit Tom Marino is leading, but with a pretty blechy 43% (27% counted). He has two opponents, though, who are splitting the remainder, so this may be good enough.
9:46pm: PA-06: With 10% in, SSP favorite Manan Trivedi is up 63-37 over Doug Pike. Let’s pray that holds!
9:43pm: A bunch more votes have poured in in PA-17, and Tim Holden is now on top 61-39 with around a quarter tallied. Still pretty meager, considering Dow-Ford has spent zilch.
Results are still coming in at a fast and furious clip in Arkansas, Kentucky and Pennsylvania. We’ll have Oregon results up later — 11pm-ish.
RESULTS:
- Arkansas: Associated Press | AR SoS | Politico
- Kentucky: Associated Press | KY SoS | Politico
- Pennsylvania: Associated Press | PA SoS | Politico | PA-12 Special
RESOURCES: SSP Election Preview | PA-12 maps
Can someone break down by counties, which are Republican counties, which are Dem counties, and which are swing. I would really appreciate it, or if someone could tell me how to find out! Thanks
Kanjorski is pretty weak.
I’m at the Politico and looking at Arkansas results. The ad right next to it is from the Chamber of Commerce. Knowing the money they poured into the race for Lincoln, just thought that was funny.
staying way off topic……
I guess that is what happens when your in Pacific time and you live in Eastern. Fortunately the Oregon hasn’t been getting the attention of the other 3 states so I won’t need to stay up late.
She’s losing by a 2-1 margin.
Unless the Philly burbs really flip in Specter’s favor, that’s all folks.
Specter’s possibly overperforming in the Southwest, but the Philly suburbs appear strong for Sestak. Specter’s doing very well in Philadelphia, though, so anything can happen here.
Joyce Elliott has a 3,000 vote early lead due to returns in Pulaski County, overall she has 45% to 27% for Mills with just early returns and 2 precincts in. This will be an interesting one.
It’s early, but I’m optimistic.
with 94% in, Conway’s hanging onto an 8,000 vote lead. Given that there’s a slice of JeffCo left, I still think he’ll make it.
i think he’s won this, he’s winning the entire greater pittsburgh area, taking the philadelphia suburbs and easily winning the rural counties.
yes it is still extraordinarily close but the trend looks to be in sestaks favor
like Conway has this thing wrapped up. Fired up and ready to go!
Burns is barely holding off Russel, 54-46, with 21% in. Critz is sailing past the primary with 77%.
going to win by a lot.
And most likely just 2.
I just watched some Fox News (mannity) just because they were the only ones talking about the races, and they somehow spin Critz winning as a slam against Obama.
They for some reason think Murtha was an Uber liberal. Not suprised to see Frank Luntz on there, what a bunch of loons. The GOP is going to lose PA-12, district they should have won, morons.
and Conway is ahead by 6,000 votes.
But once the rest of JeffCo comes in, it’s over.
calls it for Conway!
Jack’s got the check mark!
Called for Conway. Oh well.
and congratulations to Conway.
And how is she(?) winning McCreary County?
the few specter counties remaining outside of philadelphia are changing from specter to sestak. i am surprised specter is doing so poorly
I think we can call it for Conway, Sestak, and Critz. Things look good for Trivedi. Now let’s see about that run-off in Arkansas.
I think the Sestak win over Specter is especially amazing. It’s an awesome moment when a giant goes down. Let’s see if it happens again to McCain.
was master of his domain in Henderson County, narrowly winning it. Way to go, man!
CNN just called it for Conway!!
SWEEEEEET.
KY just shot up to the top of the seats to flip to dem.
71% in, 64-36 Sestak
Sestak’s got it.
Looking like a great night.
Trivedi, Sestak, Conway and Critz wins all together would be amazing.
I don’t really have a horse in the AR-SEN race, but I would like to see the Republicans go to a run off and I hope Willis wins over Elliot.
Kanjorski’s definitely making it through.
and now for good news–with 37% in, Trivedi is keeping it up, 60-40!
The Dem miscellaneous candidates get over 65,000 votes, more than half of what Grayson got.
The Republican miscellaneous candidates got less than the last place Dem misc candidate.
that Sestak’s late-spending campaign was a great strategy. Remember we were debating that?
BTW, I hate Chris Matthews. As a strong strong Specter supporter, I just need to vent about that.
wins!
Spector will win Philly by around 40,000 votes, but Sestak is up 11,000 in Pittsburgh with 97% in, and Sestak is winning big in the Philly burbs by 17-18,000 so far, and won Luzerne by 4,000, even in Erie, and winning the rural counties. It’s in the bag…and called as I write this.
with 61% counted Huber appears to be pulling away ever-so-slightly, 30-26.
Rothfus will be declared the winner in PA-04 soon.
With half in, Marino only leads 42-36 in PA-10.
and how the swings compare to Obama, Kerry and Murtha?
should have done it after 2006, might have stayed in power.
It’s still interesting to see what is outstanding. Silly.
It looks like a homerun tonight for (progressive) Team Blue… with the possible exception of Lincoln not having to go to a runoff (but even that has a bright side, if she is going to win by 10% in the end, better have it happen tonight).
I guess Senate Dems won’t have to worry about what committees he would chair in 2011.
This is a great election night so far. If PA-12 comes out for us I will be stoked. If not, its still worth having Sestak and Conway on our tickets. Sweet!!!
…by just over 100 votes, 10256-10107, according to the county BoE. Burns is done.
http://westmorelandweb400.us/elect/SPEC%20ELECT%2012TH%20CON%20DIST.PDF
(County elections homepage is at http://westmorelandweb400.us/elect/elec_ctyr.shtml)
Halter appears to be doing much better in primary day voting than in early voting. Saline County is really hurting him though, as Lincoln has managed to build a nearly 6,000 vote margin there with just 8 of 75 precincts in.
While I am happy Sestak won I have great respect for Senator Specter. He has served his country and state well and while I was rooting for Sestak I still am a little sad to imagine a Senate without him. Thank you for your service Senator you did well and will not soon be forgotten.
Not sure an upset is brewing here. Wills’s base of Faulkner County is not in at all, as is the case with several of the counties around Little Rock where he will presumably do well.
Last fall, when both trailed by huge margins in all the polls, Guru confidently predicted that Rubio and Sestak would be their parties’ nominees for Senate. Nailed them both!
Sestak is doing very well in the counties that make up PA-12. I don’t know the local details, but this Senate primary may have saved the House seat.
what a great night so far………
Burns has conceded according to Twitter
can we make it a perfect election night for spiderdem?
Pretty good night!!
And the spin saying tonight was a catastrophe for the Democrats begins in 5,4,3…
from the Phillies/flyers games. Seems like Pennsylvania made all the right choices tonight. I’m a happy camper.
Now if only the Phillies could have won 🙂
showing Burns ahead by 2.
Think they should stop polling house races after this and NY=23?
Polls have been showing a dead heat but it seems that Critz is winning by a surprisingly low double digits/high single digits margin. The primary probably helped but still this seems to be a blow for the GOP who have been hoping for some tangible proof that a GOP wave is coming in November.
Unfortunately it is likely the GOP will break their special election losing streak in HI-01 on Saturday but that can be spun by Democrats as a result that only happened because of a split between two Democrats and no runoffs. If Djou gets less than 40% of the vote then it’s very difficult to see him prevail against a single Democrat in November even with the national mood favoring the GOP.
A win in PA-12 would have been much more substantial for the GOP (and easier to defend in November if Burns had took it).
I remember I was told I was crazy for calling PA-12 weeks ago for the Democrats. Local politics matters regardless of what some think on this site. PVI numbers are not all as this race has shown.
Holding Lincoln under 50% would be the topping
It appears the AP messed up with Saline County’s numbers. Lincoln’s margin there just dropped massively from that 6,000 vote lead earlier with 79% of the vote. Now overall in Arkansas, Lincoln has 45% to Halter 41%.
Great night! I’m a little saddened by Specter’s loss, but I’m 100% behind Sestak now. PA-12 is another egg shell on Pete Sessions face, though he’ll be able to claim HI-1 in a few weeks sadly. It looks like so far that Lincoln and Halter are going to incinerate each other in the runoff while John Boozman can sit back, horde campaign cash and watch as Halter and Lincoln bloody each other up.
fit in with the Republican narrative of a conservative wave building? Clearly Republican primary voters are often voting for anti-establishment, outsider types such as Rand Paul. But Democrats seem to be going for progressive choices in many cases–and certainly in the big cases of the Senatorial primaries in Kentucky and Pennsylvania. Those progressive choices seem to have better prospects in the general than their more conservative primary opponents would have had.
You could say that it’s mainstream conservatism that’s at risk right now, eaten away by the wacky right on one side and the progressive center-left on the other. Not a good day to be a Trey Grayson kind of Republican. To top it off, there doesn’t seem to be an enthusiasm gap, or if there is, it seems to be favoring Democrats.
Maybe we should discount Republican triumphalism. Maybe November is still completely up in the air.
They ended up with Burns 60-40.
“that’s unpossible.”
The tea party
But all my love is now with Sestak. End of message.
but Marlin Stutzman is running for Mark Souder’s seat now.
The narrative here needs to be that Kanjo needs to grab the support of Kelly and O’Brien supportes.
It just seems weird to me that his district had 67K votes on the Dem side but only 28K on the Repub side. With Barletta being a known commodity and unopposed in the primary, I understand. Still that margin of voters surprises me.
Kanjo needs a top notch campaign manager brought in so as to not replicate his 2008 campaign lameness. He has a real battle this time and we know it from the very start.
Ok, here’s something that really, really, bothers me about Sestak.
I’m watching his victory speech on MSNBC and he mentions how he fought against Washington.
Sure, Specter has been there much longer, but Sestak’s no stranger to Washington, he’s in Congress now!
He comes off as really hypocritical with that stuff.
I respect the guy for his military service, but politically he just sounds so hypocritical.
All of that said, he’s better than Toomey.
That mean the night would be good.
I glad about PA-12 despite Critz is so in the right, and I think Sestak will be a good candidate for November elections.
I think today’s election results mean we will see very few changes in Pennsylvania after 2010 elections.
Corbett weaker than expected.
From what I have read, Critz seems like he’s a Conservative Democrat.
I wonder if he’ll join the Blue Dogs? He seems like he’d be a great fit.
I tell sometimes they are giving hard results for democrats what favore to republicans.
Well we see one today. PPP failed big pro-republicans in the last polls about PA-12 district.
I hope they can give better results next times.