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Arkansas, Kentucky & Pennsylvania Results Thread #2

by: James L.

Tue May 18, 2010 at 9:39 PM EDT


10:48pm: Calling all Swingnuts! Let's make 'em hear us over here!
10:40pm: LOL - Tim Burns wins his primary, according to the AP. Lucky guy gets to face off again against Rep.-elect Mark Critz in November.
10:37pm: Check out AR-Sen - Lincoln is now down to 45-41 over Halter. DC Morrison is at a surprisingly sprightly 14% - a rare over-performance from pre-election polling for a classic "third wheel" candidate. A little over 27% of the vote is in. Also, John Boozman just slipped below the 50% mark, while Jim Holt! is in second place.
10:33pm: Also for what it's worth, the Swing State Project is calling PA-12 for Democrat Mark Critz.
10:29pm: DRUDGE SIREN ALERT: In PA-12, Tim Burns has conceded to Democrat Mark Critz! Woo hoo!
10:26pm: Crossing off another race off this list, the AP has called PA-17 for Tim Holden, who's sitting on 67% of the vote. On the GOP side, David Argall leads Frank Ryan by 35-33 with 79% of the vote in.
10:24pm: The AP calls PA-11 for Paul Kanjorski... The dude's currently sitting at 50.1% of the vote. Not exactly a ringing vote of confidence!
10:22pm: In PA-04, the AP has called the race for attorney Keith Rothfus, who obliterated NRCC favorite Mary Beth Buchanan.
10:20pm: With 233 precincts reporting, Critz leads Burns by 54-43. Our county analysis tells us that Critz is running ahead of where he needs to be in order to win this.
10:19pm: The AP has called the Pennsylvania Democratic primary for Joe Sestak!
10:17pm: Possible upset special? In AR-02, Joyce Elliott is leading House Speaker Robbie Wills by 42-28 with just 7% in. (Of course, if no one hits 50%, this sucker is going to a runoff.)
10:15pm: The SSP team is projecting Joe Sestak to win his primary by around 79,000 votes.
10:08pm: The AP has called two GOP House races in Arkansas, even though only a small chunk of the vote has been counted. In AR-01, Rick Crawford gets the nod, and in AR-02, Tim Griffin does as well. Dem contests in both races are still very much undecided.
10:04pm: Damn, son - the AP calls KY-Sen for Jack Conway! Woohah!
10:02pm: With 5% now in, Blanche Lincoln is up 46-41 on Bill Halter, with DC Morrison taking 13%. John Boozman on the GOP side is at 53%, just outside of runoff territory.
10:01pm: PA-06: Manan Trivedi up 60-40 with 37% in.
10:00pm: On the GOP side in PA-17, semi-hyped David Argall is beating Frank Ryan 41-32 with a little over half the vote in. Tim Holden is at a much healthier 70-30 over Dow-Ford.
9:58pm: Rep. Todd Platts (PA-19), who we theorized might have pissed off the teabaggers by wanting to become head of the GAO, is handily dispatching his opponent 72-26 (with less than 10% of the vote in).
9:57pm: Was PA-12 more like NY-23 than we thought? Establishment fave Tim Burns is only leading angry outsider (and 2008 nominee) Bill Russell 54-46 in the primary.
9:56pm: The AP has called the PA-Gov Dem primary for (unsurprisingly) Dan Onorato. He'll take on Tom Corbett in the fall.
9:52pm: In PA-03, it's a dogfight between the two dudes who spent the most money: Mike Kelly's at 29% and Paul Huber's at 28%, though Huber lead earlier. About 44%'s been counted.
9:51pm: With 40% of the vote in, Sestak now has a narrow lead over Specter, 51-49. But Specter isn't winning many counties, and the remaining vote seems favorable to the challenger.
9:50pm: Mark Critz is doing well in PA-12. He's up 58-40 with 21% reporting. Much of that is from Dem-friendly areas, but our model shows him improving 1.3% over recent Dem performance in the district.
9:48pm: Over in PA-10, hyped GOP recruit Tom Marino is leading, but with a pretty blechy 43% (27% counted). He has two opponents, though, who are splitting the remainder, so this may be good enough.
9:46pm: PA-06: With 10% in, SSP favorite Manan Trivedi is up 63-37 over Doug Pike. Let's pray that holds!
9:43pm: A bunch more votes have poured in in PA-17, and Tim Holden is now on top 61-39 with around a quarter tallied. Still pretty meager, considering Dow-Ford has spent zilch.
Results are still coming in at a fast and furious clip in Arkansas, Kentucky and Pennsylvania. We'll have Oregon results up later -- 11pm-ish.

RESULTS:

RESOURCES: SSP Election Preview | PA-12 maps
James L. :: Arkansas, Kentucky & Pennsylvania Results Thread #2
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Arkansas, Kentucky & Pennsylvania Results Thread #2 | 164 comments
Pa-12
Can someone break down by counties, which are Republican counties, which are Dem counties, and which are swing. I would really appreciate it, or if someone could tell me how to find out! Thanks
No hard and fast rule
The whole district was drawn to be Dem. Indiana, Somerset, and Westmoreland should be the most Republican.  
[ Parent ]
Oh, and Armstrong

[ Parent ]
I fell (slightly) better now
Those are the only ones that have yet to report anything. Still have a bad feeling about Pa-12. Anytime the NRCC gets involved my confidence goes down, which is why I was never confident about this one but feel great about HI.  
[ Parent ]
Take a look
[ Parent ]
Thanks
All of the abovE!
[ Parent ]
Critz is goin to win big
The county websites are well ahead of the AP and Critz is well ahead everwhere I could find results.

http://www.co.greene.pa.us/ele...

http://www.compu-netmaster.com...

http://server.lcsys.net/vote/V...


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Yup, that's my impression
Mid single digits at least IMO.
[ Parent ]
And Allegheny County
http://www.alleghenycounty.us/...

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Sucks O'Brien won't pull this out
Kanjorski is pretty weak.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
O'Brien had no money.
Its very unlikely for someone with no money to win a election, especially a primary.

Yes I agree that Barletta will probably defeat Kanjorski in November. Under-performing Barack Obama when he is on the top of the ticket is not a good sign for 2010 with no Obama up-ballot and a electoral environment leaning against incumbents and Democrats in general.

[ Parent ]
LOL
I'm at the Politico and looking at Arkansas results.  The ad right next to it is from the Chamber of Commerce.  Knowing the money they poured into the race for Lincoln, just thought that was funny.
No Lost spoilers please
staying way off topic......
I will permanently ban anyone
Who discusses even the slightest LOST details.
[ Parent ]
Jack is going to totally be chosen...
As the Dem nominee in KY

Not so fast with the ban button.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Wow the Oregon closures are late.
I guess that is what happens when your in Pacific time and you live in Eastern. Fortunately the Oregon hasn't been getting the attention of the other 3 states so I won't need to stay up late.
PA-04: Mary Beth Buchanan getting pasted
She's losing by a 2-1 margin.
Sestak pulled ahead
Unless the Philly burbs really flip in Specter's favor, that's all folks.  
Looks to me like a narrow Sestak win
Specter's possibly overperforming in the Southwest, but the Philly suburbs appear strong for Sestak. Specter's doing very well in Philadelphia, though, so anything can happen here.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
AR-02
Joyce Elliott has a 3,000 vote early lead due to returns in Pulaski County, overall she has 45% to 27% for Mills with just early returns and 2 precincts in. This will be an interesting one.
Most likely it'll be a runoff between Elliott and Mills
Based on the current results, Elliott's only going to win Pulaski, while Mills will win everywhere else.
[ Parent ]
Trivedi looks really good right now!
It's early, but I'm optimistic.  

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
Back in Kentucky
with 94% in, Conway's hanging onto an 8,000 vote lead. Given that there's a slice of JeffCo left, I still think he'll make it.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
sestake just pulled ahead
i think he's won this, he's winning the entire greater pittsburgh area, taking the philadelphia suburbs and easily winning the rural counties.

yes it is still extraordinarily close but the trend looks to be in sestaks favor

Looks
like Conway has this thing wrapped up. Fired up and ready to go!  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Yeah
Conway is up 44-43, 7,000 votes, with 96% in and a tiny chunk of JeffCo outstanding. It won't be too long before it gets called.  

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
About that OTHER PA-12 race...
Burns is barely holding off Russel, 54-46, with 21% in. Critz is sailing past the primary with 77%.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Sestak's
going to win by a lot.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
i agree
If Sestak's already countered the Philly vote with only 40% of the state in, he should be good

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)
[ Parent ]
It looks like Specter will win no more than 4 CDs
And most likely just 2.  
Fattah's and...

[ Parent ]
Gotta be Brady's


34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Yup
And MAYBE the 14th.  
[ Parent ]
Yuck
I just watched some Fox News (mannity) just because they were the only ones talking about the races, and they somehow spin Critz winning as a slam against Obama.

They for some reason think Murtha was an Uber liberal. Not suprised to see Frank Luntz on there, what a bunch of loons.  The GOP is going to lose PA-12, district they should have won, morons.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

MSNBC
is covering them as well. They are covering other things but I think they are doing a pretty good job overall.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
That would be my spin too
Indeed, GOPVOTER talked about it the other day. Meanwhile, in KY Conway winning good ole Bullitt County certainly helped!
[ Parent ]
97% in
and Conway is ahead by 6,000 votes.

But once the rest of JeffCo comes in, it's over.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

Bullitt County is also out
except for the early vote or whatever, and Conway is ahead in that count 57-26.
[ Parent ]
Bullitt just came in
Conway won it 56-31

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
MSNBC
calls it for Conway!

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
MSNBC
Jack's got the check mark!

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)
Woop woop!
Perfect.
[ Parent ]
AP
Called for Conway. Oh well.
Can we unite?


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Pretty Please


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Sure
I'm sure we can all unite behind Critz in PA-12 :)
[ Parent ]
Now
come on RuralDem I'm going to get a Conway endorsement out of you if it takes all night. If it helps I am THRILLED that Critz is about to win.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Ditto.
And I was rooting for Specter, but will wholeheartedly root for Sestak.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Bullitt does its part
and congratulations to Conway.
Ok, Who the hell is Darlene Price
And how is she(?) winning McCreary County?

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
She
is a former US customs agent. Very liberal, and I have to admit she doesn't seem all that bad.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
She's from McCreary County.

[ Parent ]
wow
the few specter counties remaining outside of philadelphia are changing from specter to sestak.  i am surprised specter is doing so poorly
A very good day
I think we can call it for Conway, Sestak, and Critz. Things look good for Trivedi. Now let's see about that run-off in Arkansas.

I think the Sestak win over Specter is especially amazing. It's an awesome moment when a giant goes down. Let's see if it happens again to McCain.

Buckmaster
was master of his domain in Henderson County, narrowly winning it.  Way to go, man!

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
KY-Sen
CNN just called it for Conway!!

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)
MUTHAFUCKIN
SWEEEEEET.

KY just shot up to the top of the seats to flip to dem.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

I still think it's 2nd-tier at best
For now. Let's see some polling in the next couple of weeks. But I think Ohio and Missouri, at a minimum, and probably New Hampshire and North Carolina, too, are much better chances to flip.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Don't misunderestimate
...teh crazy of Rand Paul.

And remember, that Jack Conway's one tough sonofabitch. :)

Hells yeah for Kentucky and the results thus far.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
I just changed KY-Sen from R to D.
http://uselectionatlas.org/PRE...

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I'm happy with the result
I just consider Kentucky very Republican in Senate elections.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Awesome!


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Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Berks County
71% in, 64-36 Sestak

Sestak's got it.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)

WOW
Looking like a great night.

Trivedi, Sestak, Conway and Critz wins all together would be amazing.

I don't really have a horse in the AR-SEN race, but I would like to see the Republicans go to a run off and I hope Willis wins over Elliot.

29/D/Male/NY-01

Some bad news
Kanjorski's definitely making it through.

and now for good news--with 37% in, Trivedi is keeping it up, 60-40!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

Kentucky Misc Candidates
The Dem miscellaneous candidates get over 65,000 votes, more than half of what Grayson got.

The Republican miscellaneous candidates got less than the last place Dem misc candidate.

Can we just say
that Sestak's late-spending campaign was a great strategy. Remember we were debating that?

BTW, I hate Chris Matthews. As a strong strong Specter supporter, I just need to vent about that.  

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

Neil Oxman's signature move
is to hoard money until the end, and the do a really effective HULK SMASH TV buy.

Best political consultant in the country IMO.  

[ Parent ]
Sestak
wins!

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Lets hope Specter behaves
And goes out gracefully.
[ Parent ]
He
has said that he will and I believe him.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
He needs to have one team left to take
his lobbying calls. (Let's be honest, that's the pragmatic approach).  
[ Parent ]
Somebody has to make sure
Joe Lieberman has no access to a phone right now, lest he convince Specter to join the Joementum independent democrat pain-in-the-ass party.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)
[ Parent ]
Fortunately, PA has a sore loser law.
The worst that could happen would be Specter re-switching to Republican and being a pain in the ass for just 7 more months.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
that's what I'm afraid of
we don't really need any bad press or Joe Juniors running around spewing garbage to the beltway press

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)
[ Parent ]
Somebody should make sure
Joe Lieberman has no access to a phone ever. Or a TV camera. Or the internet, fax, carrier pigeons, etc.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
He won't...
He already said he's supporting Sestak. Specter is a fighter for PA first and foremost, so he'll do what he believes is in PA's best interest. No way he'll be a douche like Lieberman, who acts on in his own self-interest.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
[ Parent ]
Didn't he kinda do that when he switched parties though?

[ Parent ]
No
He was independent enough to vote for the stimulus. Afterwards, Republicans were so angry at him that he could in no circumstance with the primary against Toomey. So he decided that winning the Democratic primary would be the only way to continue to fight for PA. It's kind of sad that independence (that is in the interest of a state, not an individual) gets congresspeople punished in our democracy.  

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
[ Parent ]
PA
Spector will win Philly by around 40,000 votes, but Sestak is up 11,000 in Pittsburgh with 97% in, and Sestak is winning big in the Philly burbs by 17-18,000 so far, and won Luzerne by 4,000, even in Erie, and winning the rural counties. It's in the bag...and called as I write this.  

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)
PA-03
with 61% counted Huber appears to be pulling away ever-so-slightly, 30-26.

Rothfus will be declared the winner in PA-04 soon.

With half in, Marino only leads 42-36 in PA-10.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

Anyone have the break down of PA-12
and how the swings compare to Obama, Kerry and Murtha?
Specter picked the wrong time to switch parties
should have done it after 2006, might have stayed in power.
On the other hand...
I have no doubt he would have gotten utterly blown out in a primary rematch with Toomey.

He didn't have great options either way. I would have just retired. But I guess that's why I don't have any political power.

[ Parent ]
Specter should have switched parties in 2005
n/t
[ Parent ]
I hate how Politico greys out its map when a race is called
It's still interesting to see what is outstanding.  Silly.

It looks like a homerun tonight for (progressive) Team Blue... with the possible exception of Lincoln not having to go to a runoff (but even that has a bright side, if she is going to win by 10% in the end, better have it happen tonight).

Well
Halter has won all three counties that are 100% in, so it may not be too bad.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
IDK, runoff might hold her feet to the fire
It'll force her to either fight for the tough derivative bill or lose.
[ Parent ]
Specter is done
I guess Senate Dems won't have to worry about what committees he would chair in 2011.
Hot damn!
This is a great election night so far. If PA-12 comes out for us I will be stoked. If not, its still worth having Sestak and Conway on our tickets. Sweet!!!
Critz is up in Westmoreland County

...by just over 100 votes, 10256-10107, according to the county BoE. Burns is done.

http://westmorelandweb400.us/elect/SPEC%20ELECT%2012TH%20CON%20DIST.PDF

(County elections homepage is at http://westmorelandweb400.us/elect/elec_ctyr.shtml)


Yup
Critz had everything go right for him.  
[ Parent ]
That's definitely huge
Obama and Kerry lost this county as a whole to Bush by around 12-14 point margins I believe.
[ Parent ]
Where will the votes come from?
Westmoreland's the only place with enough voters to dent Critz' lead where the GOP expected to get margins.  

They might walk out of there with a deficit, instead.  

[ Parent ]
this combined with the underwhelming primary win
makes May 18, 2010 not a great night to be Tim Burns.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
AR-Sen
Halter appears to be doing much better in primary day voting than in early voting. Saline County is really hurting him though, as Lincoln has managed to build a nearly 6,000 vote margin there with just 8 of 75 precincts in.
I'm a bit sad
While I am happy Sestak won I have great respect for Senator Specter. He has served his country and state well and while I was rooting for Sestak I still am a little sad to imagine a Senate without him. Thank you for your service Senator you did well and will not soon be forgotten.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
It was kinda sad
Watching that old geezer speak, sounded kinda pretty sad about loosing that.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Amen
I was leaning towards Specter a little bit and I was annoyed but Sestak's refusal to commit to Specter in the general but I am more than ready to cheer for him against Toomey.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
*by, not but
also, PA-11 called for Kanjo :(

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I was pulling for Specter
and more because like Boxer he is a tough fighter, but I will wholeheartedly root for Sestak.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Agreed
He's always been a moderate Republican, and had the instincts for compromise that legislators need. And he never treated Democratic ideas as automatically radioactive. Honestly, Republican or Democrat, I would trade Arlen Specter for Joe Lieberman in a heartbeat.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
Ditto. nt


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Thank you
Specter does so much for this country and PA. If the reflexively anti-Specter Daily Kos community knew what Specter did for medical research for this country, I guarantee you that the half of those people would have constantly sung Specter's praise. It's a shame.

Oh well, Sestak should be a fine candidate... anything to keep Toomey far away from the Senate.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

[ Parent ]
Yeah...
Specter's always had a classic style and a charming personality, BUT

1. He voted for Bush's tax cuts.
2. He presided over the confirmation hearings of both of Bush's SCOTUS nominees!

Sorry to push policy here.

[ Parent ]
And Clarence Thomas
Specter will indeed be remembered for some time, but both for good and ill. These young Supreme Court Justices will be doing mischief active for some time to come.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
AR-02
Not sure an upset is brewing here.  Wills's base of Faulkner County is not in at all, as is the case with several of the counties around Little Rock where he will presumably do well.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
All Hail SenateGuru!
Last fall, when both trailed by huge margins in all the polls, Guru confidently predicted that Rubio and Sestak would be their parties' nominees for Senate.  Nailed them both!
For what it's worth
Sestak is doing very well in the counties that make up PA-12. I don't know the local details, but this Senate primary may have saved the House seat.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)
WOW
what a great night so far.........
Best night for Democrats
Since the first Tuesday in November 2008.
[ Parent ]
Congressman Elect Critz
Burns has conceded according to Twitter
Fun Fact
Critz doesn't even have a wikipedia page.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Sorry, GOPVOTER
that being said, you guys will probably get your revenge with HI-01, so for now don't mind if we go ahead and celebrate :)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
AR-Sen getting really tight
can we make it a perfect election night for spiderdem?

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
CNN projects Critz is next Rep from PA-12
Pretty good night!!

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
It is a good night!
Put that in your conservative pipe and smoke it.
[ Parent ]
Pretty good night!
And the spin saying tonight was a catastrophe for the Democrats begins in 5,4,3...

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)
Just got home
from the Phillies/flyers games.  Seems like Pennsylvania made all the right choices tonight.  I'm a happy camper.

Now if only the Phillies could have won :-)

Flyers
The Flyers run has beat the Rangers to get in, beat the Devils, came down from 3-0 against the Bruins, and haven't given up a goal to Montreal yet. I'd say most Philly fans would trade a Phillies loss for that!

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)
[ Parent ]
Hypothetically yes
But when things go good in Philly, we get greedy.

The 76ers also moved up their lottery position in tonight's draw and will have the #2 pick in the NBA draft

[ Parent ]
hahaha
I'm just happy because it was hell growing up a Flyers fan in New Haven, CT.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)
[ Parent ]
At this point, the flyers have a real chance
at the Stanley Cup.  Hockey playoffs are so unique.
[ Parent ]
Wait. PPP just out with a poll
showing Burns ahead by 2.

Think they should stop polling house races after this and NY=23?

Be nice
Nobody is perfect.
[ Parent ]
you're right
I guess all those other races that they nail mean nothing?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Good in state races
Not so good in house races.
[ Parent ]
What will the narriative of PA-12 be?
Polls have been showing a dead heat but it seems that Critz is winning by a surprisingly low double digits/high single digits margin. The primary probably helped but still this seems to be a blow for the GOP who have been hoping for some tangible proof that a GOP wave is coming in November.

Unfortunately it is likely the GOP will break their special election losing streak in HI-01 on Saturday but that can be spun by Democrats as a result that only happened because of a split between two Democrats and no runoffs. If Djou gets less than 40% of the vote then it's very difficult to see him prevail against a single Democrat in November even with the national mood favoring the GOP.

A win in PA-12 would have been much more substantial for the GOP (and easier to defend in November if Burns had took it).

PA-12
This race was never that close.  People get too hung up on the fact that it is R+1, but ignore the reality it is 2 to 1 Democrat in registration and practically a Democratic lock on the local and state levels.  PVI is not all and this teaches everyone that lesson.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
True
not only were the Democratic primaries for governor and senate heavily contested, Critz successfully rebuffed Burns charges that he would be a "Nancy Pelosi Democrat."

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
He had to run away from the national party
Though to do it. It confirms in my mind that lots of people who voted against HCR are gonna be fine while some that did vote for it will lose.
[ Parent ]
I agree here.
All politics are local. I suspect Democrats will lose just about 15-20 seats this year. Definitely no more than 30.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Polling has suffered from several factors
mostly skewing of likely voters in an unreal way, with Rass obviously being the worst offender.

The mainstream Republican brand remains toxic.  A lot of voters are pissed off at everybody, but there is zero enthusiasm for mainstream Republicans with no track record (in other words, Branstad can be doing great, but Grayson is toast).

[ Parent ]
PA-12
I remember I was told I was crazy for calling PA-12 weeks ago for the Democrats.  Local politics matters regardless of what some think on this site.  PVI numbers are not all as this race has shown.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
I don't remember anybody calling you crazy
The polls were pretty clear at that time. Looks like Burns shot himself in the foot by attacking a dead man. The primaries didn't hurt either.
[ Parent ]
I too
was recently called crazy/dumb for some of my views on the Democratic tilt of PA.  I think tonights results just further the point I was making, but its a conversation that doesn't need to be re-hashed here.
[ Parent ]
Again people disagreed
They did not call you names.
[ Parent ]
No they certainly did call names
Crazy and such.  I was also called a troll.  
[ Parent ]
Not everybody
Most of us were very civil.  
[ Parent ]
Agreed, it wasnt everybody
And neither Ryan_in_Delco or I suggested we were run out by everyone, but it was a very lobsided conversation in my case, and the names were certainly thrown out there.

I can't comment on Ryan_in_Delco's case, but his positions haven't wavered on that race in the posts I've read from him.

[ Parent ]
Couldn't have asked for a much better night
Holding Lincoln under 50% would be the topping
Huge swing in Arkansas Senate !
It appears the AP messed up with Saline County's numbers. Lincoln's margin there just dropped massively from that 6,000 vote lead earlier with 79% of the vote. Now overall in Arkansas, Lincoln has 45% to Halter 41%.
Woohoo!
Great night! I'm a little saddened by Specter's loss, but I'm 100% behind Sestak now. PA-12 is another egg shell on Pete Sessions face, though he'll be able to claim HI-1 in a few weeks sadly. It looks like so far that Lincoln and Halter are going to incinerate each other in the runoff while John Boozman can sit back, horde campaign cash and watch as Halter and Lincoln bloody each other up.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
Actually HI-01 is on Saturday.
Or at least I think so, so Pete Sessions will be gloating in less than a week.

Still a loss in HI-01 is much easier to explain away than a loss in PA-12 would have for Democrats. Djou wouldn't have come close if he was only facing one Democrat. He would have some advantages as an incumbent and Hanabusa and Case will likely be fighting until the end of the regular September Primary. However Djou would have a very difficult time facing either Democrat alone unless he compiled a very moderate record. Considering Cao's voting record in the more immensely Democratic LA-02, I can't really count on that.

[ Parent ]
How do all of these progressive wins
fit in with the Republican narrative of a conservative wave building? Clearly Republican primary voters are often voting for anti-establishment, outsider types such as Rand Paul. But Democrats seem to be going for progressive choices in many cases--and certainly in the big cases of the Senatorial primaries in Kentucky and Pennsylvania. Those progressive choices seem to have better prospects in the general than their more conservative primary opponents would have had.

You could say that it's mainstream conservatism that's at risk right now, eaten away by the wacky right on one side and the progressive center-left on the other. Not a good day to be a Trey Grayson kind of Republican. To top it off, there doesn't seem to be an enthusiasm gap, or if there is, it seems to be favoring Democrats.

Maybe we should discount Republican triumphalism. Maybe November is still completely up in the air.

Won't matter
They never let the results stand in the way of Village CW.  It'll take more than this to change it
[ Parent ]
I suspect all they'll talk about
Is Rand Paul and the Tea Party.
[ Parent ]
Infallibe in trade also strikes out
They ended up with Burns 60-40.
Intrade doesn't know any better than you do--ever

[ Parent ]
critz won
"that's unpossible."

The tea party

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Quoting Ralph Wiggum.means...
that it was a good night!
[ Parent ]
Critz called the winner by AP!

I was pulling for Specter
But all my love is now with Sestak.  End of message.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
I think this news got lost in election fever
but Marlin Stutzman is running for Mark Souder's seat now.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
How will they decide that
A primary or party chairs?
[ Parent ]
Given the political makeup of that district
He should be favored. Lean-R.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Kanjorski
The narrative here needs to be that Kanjo needs to grab the support of Kelly and O'Brien supportes.  

It just seems weird to me that his district had 67K votes on the Dem side but only 28K on the Repub side.  With Barletta being a known commodity and unopposed in the primary, I understand.  Still that margin of voters surprises me.

Kanjo needs a top notch campaign manager brought in so as to not replicate his 2008 campaign lameness.  He has a real battle this time and we know it from the very start.

PA-SEN
Ok, here's something that really, really, bothers me about Sestak.

I'm watching his victory speech on MSNBC and he mentions how he fought against Washington.

Sure, Specter has been there much longer, but Sestak's no stranger to Washington, he's in Congress now!

He comes off as really hypocritical with that stuff.

I respect the guy for his military service, but politically he just sounds so hypocritical.

All of that said, he's better than Toomey.

Pennsylvania gives good results today

That mean the night would be good.

I glad about PA-12 despite Critz is so in the right, and I think Sestak will be a good candidate for November elections.

I think today's election results mean we will see very few changes in Pennsylvania after 2010 elections.

Corbett weaker than expected.

I was surprised by both PA Gov races
both came off weaker than I thoguht.  Onorato might have Sestak's coattails to ride somewhat here in Philly.  

it will be a long campaign and god knows anything can happen.  But even though many think Corbett is the favorite, with Sestak at the top and candidates who can drive dem turnout (Critz, Travedi) in other districts, Onorato has a real chance.  

Onorato's own underwhelming results can be tempered by the possibly sunny outlook for the fall as things that could give him a boost all happened tonight....IMHO

[ Parent ]
I begin to think the same

Corbett is not very strong. Under the 70% against no-name republican, is not good signal for him.

Onorato is younger and is emerging since no-name positions.

[ Parent ]
PA-Gov primary is very hard for a candidate what find emerge like Onorato

Onorato wins over Wagner, a statewide officer and over Hoeffel, a former congressman and 2004 senate nominate against Specter.

Despite Rohrer is a no-name candidate, we see Corbett under the 70%. Fitzpatrick wins higher support in his primary for PA-08.

[ Parent ]
PA-12
From what I have read, Critz seems like he's a Conservative Democrat.

I wonder if he'll join the Blue Dogs? He seems like he'd be a great fit.

PPP fail big in the polls for PA-12

I tell sometimes they are giving hard results for democrats what favore to republicans.

Well we see one today. PPP failed big pro-republicans in the last polls about PA-12 district.

I hope they can give better results next times.

Arkansas, Kentucky & Pennsylvania Results Thread #2 | 164 comments

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