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Arkansas, Oregon & Pennsylvania Results Thread #3

by: James L.

Tue May 18, 2010 at 10:47 PM EDT


3:07am: The AR-03 (R) runoff has been called for Womack and Bledsoe.
1:52am: OR-01's R primary has finally been called by the AP for Rob Cornilles, who beat opponents Keller and Kuzmanich 40-29-28. We're still waiting on one race: which wingnut squeaks into the Republican runoff in AR-03 against Steve Womack: will it be Cecile Bledsoe or Gunner DeLay? Bledsoe has pulled into a tiny lead (13% each, with a 182 vote spread, with 510 of 533 reporting).
12:54am: The AP has called the OR-Gov GOP primary for Chris Dudley. I forget which pundit made the point, but this sets up possibly the tallest major election ever, if you laid the two candidates end-to-end. At any rate, I think Dudley poses less of a challenge for Kitz than would Alley, who came across more, uh, substantial.
12:49am: Two last races out there. In the wingnut central that is AR-03, Gunner DeLay and Cecile Bledsoe are duking it out for the right to go into a runoff with Steve Womack (91% counted). And in OR-01, Rob Cornilles has a 10-point lead over Douglas Keller, but the vote's still being counted.
12:42am: The AP calls PA-06 (D) for Manan Trivedi and PA-17 (R) for Dave Argall.
12:34am: All 100% are reporting in PA-17 as well, and David Argall seems to have won, beating Frank Ryan 32-31 (with a 900 vote spread). AP hasn't called this one, yet.
12:22am: Trivedi wins! 100% in according to the AP, and he's up 21,338 to 20,667, a 50.8% to 49.2% victory! WOOHOO!!!! GREAT NIGHT!
12:12am: Manan Trivedi is up 672 votes, and it looks like there are very few if any precincts outstanding. Hard to tell, though, since the SoS doesn't say, and AP is lagging.
12:09am: AP calls OR-05 (R) for Scott Bruun. He'll face freshman Rep. Kurt Schrader in the fall.
12:05am: Alright, where's the foul up with the PA-19 (R) numbers? According to the AP, Rep. Todd Platts dispatched his primary challenger, Michael Smeltzer, with ease - 70-30. But the PA SoS shows him barely surviving, at 54-46. State Rep. Eugene DePasquale (D) tweets at us that the 70-30 figure is correct.
12:03am: Ah well - the AP says John Boozman won't face a runoff. Fortunately, the Dem runoff in Arkansas is in just three weeks, so we won't face a prolonged exposure like we do in NC (six weeks).
12:02am: The clock's struck midnight, and as we like to say around here, we're getting down to stems and seeds, folks. The AP has called PA-03 (R) for Mike Kelly, who wins with 28% to Paul Huber's 26%.
11:59pm: A moment ago, Bill Halter temporarily pulled into the lead (by 86 votes) over Blanche Lincoln. She's back ahead now by some 1,400 votes, but it would be interesting if Halter finished the night ahead.
11:55pm: Following these PA races is a bit of a pain -- the AP is updating at a sluggish pace compared to the DoS, but the DoS won't tell us where any outstanding votes are. Still, between the two, we have some good news for Manan Trivedi. Trivedi leads Pike by 800 votes according to the latest DoS count. The latest AP count (91% of the vote) indicates that almost all of Chester County is in (where Pike romped by 67-33), with a few outstanding precincts in Montgomery County, where Trivedi beat Pike. Great news.
11:40pm: What else is still on the board? Well, John Boozman is desperately trying to avoid getting teabagged into a runoff - he's at 51.2% now with 60% reporting. And things just got a LOT tighter in PA-06, where Manan Trivedi is at 50.7% to 49.3% for Doug Pike now.
11:35pm: AP calls the OR-Sen R primary for law professor Jim Huffman, even though he's only at 42%; none of his many opponents broke 15%.
11:32pm: Now we're getting down to just a handful of races left. AR-01 (D) is going to be a runoff between Tim Wooldridge and Chad Causey. AR-02 (D) will be a runoff between Joyce Elliott and Robbie Wills.
11:31pm: So three races left in Pennsylvania: PA-06, PA-03 (where 100% are reporting but the race is uncalled), and PA-17.
11:30pm: Looks like our friends down in PA-06 have returned from a phat ganja break - Trivedi now has 18,132 to Pike's 15,521. The problem is that the PA SoS doesn't say how many precincts are outstanding, and the AP is well behind the SoS. But I'm guessing we're around 70-75% counted.
11:28pm: On the R side in OR-Gov, with 40% reporting (see how fast it goes when all the ballots are already in hand?), it's Chris Dudley with the slam dunk, or at least the lightly-contested layup: he's at 41, Allen Alley at 32, John Lim at 13, and Bill Sizemore proving you can still be competitive even after indictment, at 8.
11:24pm: Well, that was easy - the AP just called OR-Gov (D) for Kitz. Kinda gotta wonder why Bradbury never just got out of the way in the first place....
11:21 pm: Detouring down into the weeds in Oregon: the nonpartisan race for Superintendent of Public Instruction is being decided today, not in November, because only two people ran. The incumbent Susan Castillo (whomever everyone knows is the D) is beating Ron Maurer (the R) 55-45. Also, in the Treasurer primary, incumbent appointee Ted Wheeler is beating Rick Metsger 63-37.
11:16pm: ALERT! AR-Sen (D) will go to a run-off. And the tally (with 50% in) is a lot closer than polls suggested it was likely to be. Blanche Lincoln is at 43.5% and Bill Halter is at 42.3%.
11:15pm: In OR-01 (R), it's Rob Cornilles 38, Douglas Keller 32, John Kuzmanich 28 with 36% in. In OR-05 (R), it's Scott Bruun 59, "Not That" Fred Thompson 42 (23% in).
11:13pm: Miles to go before we sleep: Out in Oregon, John Kitzhaber is crushing Bill Bradbury in the Dem gov primary, 69-27, with 20% reporting. Chris Dudley has a 41-33 lead over Allen Alley on the GOP side.
11:01pm: So it looks like the PA SoS is further along than Politico. They show PA-06 already at 54-46 Trivedi.
11:00pm: Polls have just closed in Oregon.
10:58pm: Gonna guess run-off in AR-01 as well, where Tim Wooldridge leads Chad Causey 34-28.
10:57pm: With about a third in, Joye Elliott leads AR-02 over Robbie Wills, 36-33. Looks like there will be a runoff here.
10:53pm: Alright, the AP just called it for Tom Marino, who wins with an unspiring 42% or so. He'll square off against Chris Carney in the fall.
10:50pm: Still some unsettled GOP primaries in Pennsylvania. PA-03: Mike Kelly has a narrow 29-26 lead over Paul Huber with all but 7% counted. PA-10: Tom Marino hanging on with 42% (87% counted). PA-17: Dave Argall at just 35 with Frank Ryan at 32, with 82% in.
10:47pm: So here's a look at what's going on: In AR-Sen, Lincoln is up just 44-42 over Halter with a third of the vote in. John Boozman keeps flirting with the 50% mark. In PA-06, Manan Trivedi is up 59-41 with half the vote in; our model shows a 54% victory for him.

Polls will close in Oregon at 11pm Eastern. Let's rock this party west coast style! Laiiiid back.

RESULTS:

James L. :: Arkansas, Oregon & Pennsylvania Results Thread #3
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I'd love to hear from Jeff
how PA-12 mapped to his model.  

First
and Lincoln is just 2,000 ahead of Halter.  

That Saline result swap changes everything there
Looks very likely a clear runoff, which I think is good for whoever wins.

Halter staying within 2 points would make this a total homerun night.


[ Parent ]
What precincts are still out?
And for whom are they more likely to break?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
PA-10: Marino wins
n/t

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Lincoln's tanking
Runoff, anyone?

If she comes in second, I will be hella surprised.


Problem being Morrison's
Votes would likely go to her. Though chances are people would move to Halter if that happened.

[ Parent ]
Not so sure
Realistically, I suspect most of Morrison's voters will stay home in the runoff, but those that don't will probably vote against the incumbent.

27, Democratic, IL-01

[ Parent ]
Agree on part 1, Joe, not with part 2......
Yeah, I think Morrison voters mostly stay home.  Especially when you're talking about a runoff, voter fatigue sets in and depresses turnout right there, and Morrison first-choicers are that much more deflated and demotivated.  I would guess a lot of them would vote Republican in the fall.

I actually think a runoff might prove a tossup.  I'm shocked that Lincoln is up by a healthy margin, as polling consensus predicted she would be, and polling is most often right.  Halter in a dead heat is the only major surprise of the night to me.

Well, actually, Critz winning as handily as he did is also a surprise.  And a very pleasant one!  We hold off the doom-and-gloom narrative with this one, and make a lot of House Democrats breathe a little easier, knowing they have plausible paths to victory.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Biggest shocker of the night
My laptop didn't crash once! Night all.

[ Parent ]
I mean tonight...
If she comes in second tonight, she's DOA politically.

[ Parent ]
AR Senate Primaries
Still a little early, but it seems almost certain that Lincoln and Halter will go into a runoff.

Boozman on the other hand seems to in 50/50 on whatever he avoids one or not. His chances of making it to the general would diminish severely if he is forced into a two man race with Holt or who ever is in second place. Remember he is a an incumbent Congressman and voters don't particular like incumbents. He seems to be in first place primarily on name recognition.


No precincts reporting in Pulaski.
Isn't Halter supposed to do well there?

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

Now it's starting to come in
and Lincoln is dominating.  That seems inconsistent with everything I read was expected.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
With Halter forcing Lincoln into a run-off...
...it looks as though the progressive victory tonight is complete. The spirit of 2006 and 2008 lives!

Pleasantly surprised
Apologies to those I pooh-poohed in the predictions thread. Hope it is!

[ Parent ]
Wouldn't be too sure of that.
3rd place candidate Morrison is pretty conservative from what I heard and his votes much more likely to go to the more conservative Lincoln in the runoff. However a run-off still buys Halter valuable time to make his case. Unfortunately both would lose badly in November, at least to Boozman. Perhaps Halter would do better against the less known GOPers but that is totally predicated on Boozman getting a runoff which very unclear at this point as he is right on the margin of 50%.

[ Parent ]
Hardly anybody showed up for the GOP primary
Lincoln and Halter will each get more votes than the Reps put together.

Boozman shows no signs of setting the world on fire.


[ Parent ]
To whoever mentioned
in the last thread that there were more Dem votes in PA-11 than Rep votes, remember that there were no statewide competitive R primaries.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Sestak is certainly having fun in his victory remarks.


Let's just hope he isn't Deeds II


[ Parent ]
He's
definitely well...how do we say it "FIRED UP AND READY TO GO!"

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Massive difference in turnout in AR
Nearly three times as many Democrats as Republicans.  Don't know if that matters for the fall

Congrats to Critz
and Sestak. Bad night for GOP.  

I think the PA-12 race shows that the
GOP, for the most part, shouldn't try to run against Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama in the fall. In both NY-23 and PA-12 we have had two rich guys trying to run against the Dems in Washington instead of running against their opponents.  

[ Parent ]
Amen to that.
It failed in 2006 and it failed in 2008, and it's not going to work now.  People see right through that.  People wonder, "Why are you talking about Nancy Pelosi, she's not running?"  All politics is local.

Most people don't even have strong opinions about Pelosi.  Some like her, some don't.  Probably more don't.  But nobody gives a shit enough to have it influence their votes in some unrelated race.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
In fairness, I don't think there way a ton of
running against Pelosi in 06, and any strategy mostly fell flat in both those Dem wave years.
Also most polling shows that she is actually pretty unpopular but the 2nd part about nobody caring enough is right on target.
This special is just showing to me, like in NY-23, that voters aren't going to go gaga for ideological battles and inside baseball about Congressional leadership.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah it was only 2008.
They wouldn't have run against her in 2006 because she was not House Speaker.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Oh your memory is a bit faulty......
I don't have examples at my fingertips, but "San Francisco liberal!" was a frequent talking point in 2006.  Granted it was much more for fundraising and media consumption than for voter messaging, but it was there to some extent in voter messaging, too.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
It shows once again
That campaigns and candidates matter. Too much assuming been going on. On both sides.

[ Parent ]
I am so relieved
that I don't have to learn the technique of the Tek...

The sky is solid!


[ Parent ]
Agree completely, I shake my head every time......
Obama's job approval now is about where Bush was in 2004, but Republicans act like it's in Bush 2006/2008 territory.  Even in PA-12, Obama isn't that big a factor.

And no one cares about the Speaker of the House.  Attacking Gingrich never worked for Democrats except in a small handful of strongly Democratic districts, and attacking Pelosi has never worked for Republicans.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Out of Arkansas...
Halter is doing way better than expected so far...He's even winning in Lincoln territory (Cross county, where I was born and raised...personal victory!)

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

Sestak
He's indirectly slamming Specter right now. He should be congratulating Specter for his 30 years in public service. By claiming that politicians are just looking out for themselves, he compromising fracturing the base. Look, I fully support Sestak against Toomey, but he needs to stop taking shots at Specter.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

I'm not watching
and it sounds like it's a good thing too. I wouldn't want to bang my head on the table.  

[ Parent ]
I disagree
He's capturing the zeitgeist!

Ppl are laid-off from their jobs, they're hurting and these people earn $175K a year plus retirement and benefits--people are upset.


[ Parent ]
Taking a much classier tack now
Praising Specter for, among other things, his championing of NIH funding... saying "there are Americans who are alive today who would not have survived were it not for Arlen Specter... now that's a legacy to be proud of".

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
Good move on Sestak's part.


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Sestak
I do wonder what guys like Ed Rendell or Rahm Emanuel said (or threatened) to Sestak when he took up this primary challenge. I'm figuring it was pretty rough, and to win the way he has, I'll cut him some slack and let him celebrate tonight.

Wouldn't anyone enjoy flipping the bird at Rahmbo?

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)


[ Parent ]
I'm guessing the White House is fine with Sestak winning......
They had to actively support Specter as part of the party switch deal that was made.  And more broadly, a Democratic President must support every Democratic incumbent running for reelection who isn't clearly mortally wounded by personal corruption or something else that makes them personally radioactive.

But Obama et al. aren't stupid, they see the same polling we see, and I imagine private polling likely corroborated it.  They see Sestak performing no worse in November than Specter, with more upside with the undecideds much higher and many more voters open to voting for Sestak than Specter.

And Sestak ultimately is a cookie cutter Senate nominee:  a sitting Congressman with a strong personal biography who is a proven vote-getter in an important suburban swing district.  I read just today somewhere that the DSCC actually was recruiting Sestak to run against Specter before Specter's party switch.

So national Democrats will pivot easily to supporting Sestak.

The only real headache now will be keeping Specter in line on floor votes!  Will he act out, or stay a gracious pol in his short remaining life with his new party?

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I agree about this

I think the same.

[ Parent ]
He has to fall in line
To cement his legacy.  I think he'd care more about being known for his 30 years of work than sticking it to someone in the end.  

As it stands, I think he'll support Kagan.  HRC and economic stimulus have already passed.  I'm not sure there will be more than 1 or 2 major key votes on mega-legislation in the coming months so I think he'll try and stay a loyal Dem.


[ Parent ]
Specter is not one to vote out of spite
Contrary to what people at DK think, he's nowhere near a Lieberdem and does have principle.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

[ Parent ]
I think he showed that on the stimulus


[ Parent ]
boozman just dropped below 50
a run-off on the repub side would be good

You
should change your username to "primaryblanche" if that's even possible.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
I wish I could change my name.
Considering I won't be in Texas, but Arizona, after this month is over.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
how 'bout BEATTOOMEY?
good enough?

[ Parent ]
That's good...
With AR having open primaries, we don't want Limbaugh types messing with our votes...

[ Parent ]
Bonus of night would be Boozman going to a runoff...
n/t

[ Parent ]
Massive difference in turnout in AR
Nearly three times as many Democrats as Republicans.  Don't know if that matters for the fall

Probably not.
To me its more of an indication that the Democratic primaries in all the states so far have been much more competitive than than the GOP. For Arkansas in particular, its heavily Democratic but also very (socially) conservative so I still see the Republicans winning independents and a nice chunk of Democrats in the fall to win.

[ Parent ]
It matters a lot
People hate admitting they are wrong.  Changing awy from the person they voted for is hard for people to do, and certainly they almost never do it with enthusiasm.

At some point what people actually do matters more than what pundits think they will do.


[ Parent ]
PA-12
I am so happy that Critz kicked some major ass tonight.  Well, maybe not "major ass", but an impressive victory regardless.

Big opportunity for the GOP, and they screwed it up.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


Honestly ...
What type of party votes out a guy who votes the party line 98% of the time?  Clearly Spector's loss indicates that the Democratic party is not big tent enough.  
/sarc

The Dem PA Senate Primary was less a conservative/liberal thing
Than it was a incumbent/challanger thing, and the fact that Spectar switched parties so he could more easily win reelection to the Senate.

I can see Sestak being a reliable Democratic vote if he wins in November.


[ Parent ]
PA-06 has really tightened to
53-47 Trivedi.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

this with 2/3 of the vote counted
hang in there, Manan!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
If Burns won, the consensus was that PA-12 would be eliminated during redistricting
Isn't this seat gone now that Critz has won and wins in November?

PA12
In the first place the population is just not in western Pennsylvania for 4 safe or likely democratic districts.

In the second place, I dont think that the Democratic party has sole control of the process.[might be wrong]

Remember: the existing districts are a result of a Republican gerrymander.  Do we really want to keep this in place

Joe Cooper


[ Parent ]
Rachel Maddow just reminded me of something...
The NRCC wasted a crapload of money in PA-12!

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)

true
but sadly, if you add in HI-01 we probably wasted more. but oh well! still gets bragging rights for the Ds.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Dems had more to lose
In CoH terms I mean. Puts the Repubs in a bit more of a hole.

[ Parent ]
How much did NRCC spend total in PA-12?
I saw $500,00 for one week but I wasn't sure of the total. Anyone know?

[ Parent ]
Roughly $1 million.


34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Thanks. Thats quite a bit of change to lose for nothing. eom


[ Parent ]
Yeah, considering its about
1/20th of their total CoH.

[ Parent ]
Anyone care about Oregon?
Just wondering. I know that Oregon has had much less attention than the other three states tonight but both the Dem and GOP gubernatorial primaries are somewhat competitive...

OR: very few competitive races tonight
The closest statewide is still Dudley/Alley for OR-Gov (R), but Dudley is maintaining his lead with 54% counted.

I expect that to close some, as from the Lindholm poll, Alley got late deciders. But probably not enough for Alley, and that's fortunate IMO for team blue, as Alley would be a tougher candidate.

The other "big" close race is for Metro President (Transportation related stuff in the Portland area). It's a 3-way, that looks like it's going to a runoff. 2 of the 3 support a new $5billion bridge across the Columbia. Looks like the one who doesn't (Bob Stacey) will make the runoff.


[ Parent ]
After all that drama east of the Plains
I am jonesing for some Left Coast laid-backitude! And we'll need it as we have some more drama in its neighbor to the south next month.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
I thought the polls were showing the OR Dem Gov race closer.
I'm pretty sure I remember Kitzhaber ahead but only by about 10 and under 50%... maybe I'm remembering wrong.

Nonetheless the Dems are favored for the governorship in Oregon and Ron Wyden will likely have an easy win in the general so Oregon is pretty boring as far as tonight goes.


[ Parent ]
I wish it was - I voted for Bradbury
But Kitzhaber ran some devastatingly good positive ads. I personally think this one is a classic.



[ Parent ]
He's going to destroy Dudley
you'd think that with the massive support Bradbury received from numerous progressive establishment figures like Howard Dean and Al Gore he could have broken 30% in a state like Oregon.  

[ Parent ]
Against a lightweight like Dudley
That ad will kill.

30 seconds is tough for bio spots, but this one pretty much nailed it.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Awesome!


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
To say nothing of the fact...
... that he also has one of the superior 'staches in the biz, IMHO.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
Arkansas Runoff Question
Does anyone know if Republicans who voted in the Republican primary for today's election would be eligible to vote in the Democratic primary runoff? I am guessing not and let's hope that this is the case.

OR looks as most expect
Kitzhaber has been declared the winner -- 2:1 over Bradbury
Dudley's leading Alley 41:31 with 35% counted

slight bonus race - the Superintendent of Public Instruction - one of the local weeklies (Willamette Week) endorsed a guy who turned out to be a creationist, or something. He's going down only 58/42.

Most of the votes counted so far are from west of the mountains. The late Multnomah vote (Portland area) usually takes somewhat longer to come in.


Looks like AP called a runoff for the Dem AR Senate race
I'm surprised that Lincoln is ahead of Halter by only 1%. This bodes well for Halter in the runoff unless Morrison's voters show up for the runoff and massively vote for Lincoln.

On a second note I believe that the votes Morrison got are the Democrats most likely to cross over to support the Republican whoever it is.

Speaking of Republicans, Boozman is still right above 50% so no idea if he can avoid a runoff or not.


who knows
maybe Morrison's voters were conservative but anti-incumbent, and won't break cleanly to either side.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Perhaps
This is an anti-incumbent year, but also a anti-Democratic one and as Morrison is more Conservative than both Lincoln and Halter, his supporters are likely to support Boozman or whoever the GOP nominee is in the general.

An yes Boozman is an incumbent but not for the Senate seat.


[ Parent ]
Bad night for Blanche
If she stays around 44-45%, it's a huge loss for her. Not even getting more than that as an incumbent senator is a very, very poor showing.

Arlen Specter was a 30 year Republican and won 46% while losing the PA Dem primary, so if Blanche can't get more than 45% of her own lifelong party she can't be seen as a winner in any way. She's finished, whether it's June or November.

I just wonder if she'll keep moving left on the wall street regulation bill, because now she's got to keep up the act another three weeks.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)


[ Parent ]
I think Lincoln will bring in Bill Clinton to rally the troops
she can pick up some of Morrison's votes and still win the primary. It is going to drain her campaign but I still think she can pull it out.

I notice that the Republican got more votes in PA-07 than the Democrat running opposed in the primary for the Sestak seat even as Sestak was probably winning his CD by a comfortable margin. I just hope that Sestak can motivate the voters in the district to vote for Lentz in the fall.  


[ Parent ]
Don't get ya
Meehan was unopposed too.

[ Parent ]
I *think* what he meant
was that Meehan got more votes than Lentz even though PA-07 should have seen heavy Dem turnout for Sestak?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
yes
Lentz should have done better.  

[ Parent ]
on a similar note
it bothers me how PA-06 has (slightly) more R votes than D votes.....come on Ds, if three competitive primaries won't turn you out, what will? (although I guess the Philly suburbs have only recently seen a D registration advantage.)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Some of her voters may split
If they were sticking with her over electability.

[ Parent ]
Good point
I would take a second look at Halter if I voted for Blanche tonight.

[ Parent ]
Morrison's supporters will stay home
Keep in mind, Morrison practically ran the same campaign as Trey Grayson here. His supporters are conservaDems who have probably voted GOP in the past three Presidential races.

I suspect turnout will be super-super-low, which oughta bode well for Halter. I imagine Bill Clinton will stump for Lincoln at some point in the coming weeks, though, and that should help. Unfortunately, I think this race is Likely Dem either way, esp. if Boozman escapes tonight w/o a run-off.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
*Make that Likely GOP


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Perhaps Lean-R
Let's wait for polling after the runoffs. I also get the sense that Halter is a good debater. He came across pretty well in an interview I saw, at any rate.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Here's the Arizona page, in case anyone's interested.
http://www.azsos.gov/results/2...

Prop 100 is passing 64-36 with 38% in.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


Re: PA-12
Boy is it ever gonna be fun to watch Charlie Cook try to explain this away...

Male, 23, DC-At Large

Cook should eat these words
http://voices.washingtonpost.c...
Charlie Cook, Cook Political Report: "Republicans have no excuse to lose this race. The fundamentals of this district, including voters' attitudes towards Obama and Pelosi, are awful for Democrats. And Democratic party registration advantages here are just as obsolete as GOP's advantages in Upstate New York were last year. Timing is no excuse for Republicans either. This special election, not the competitive statewide Democratic primaries held the same day, will be driving turnout on May 18th.


[ Parent ]
PA LG
Is super close.  

PA-06
Back of the envelope math puts this one in recount territory, with Pike winning by <200 votes.

Pike is up 66-34 in Berks.  Trivedi is up 70-30 in Chester.  Trivedi is up 53-47 in Montgomery.  But Berks is the biggest part of the district, and it is only 1/2 in.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


Wait what?
I thought Trivedi is up in Berks and Pike is up in Chester? (which would make more sense since Trivedi is from Berks)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
ack!
PA SOS has Trivedi up by only 51-49!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Trivedi should win. Almost all of Chester is in . . .
Just 7 precincts left in Chester.

11 precicnts left in Montgomery, which should break for Trivendi.


[ Parent ]
Back-of-the-envelope math
now has Trived +500 votes.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Trivedi went back up a bit.
I'm guessing around 93% in. he should just barely make it.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
What you said.
I transposed the names of the counties.  Everything else I said stands.  This will go down to the wire.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
FWIW
PA-03(R) now called for Mike Kelly.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

Platts is having a close call

54% to 46% for Smeltzer.

seems like the PA SoS is behind the AP ;-)


[ Parent ]
Apparently
The AP is incorrect here.

[ Parent ]
Ironically, the last Democrat to represent the PA-07
before Sestak was Robert Edgar, who retired in 1986...to challenge Arlen Specter for the Senate seat.

Admittedly, a different 7th district, but still nice symmetry.


Holy Shit!
Lincoln up 269 votes in AR-Sen.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

oops
i guess we saw that at the same time.

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

[ Parent ]
That's OK.
Repetitive exuberance is allowed here.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
AR-SEN
lincoln ahead by less than 300 votes!

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

Halter is winning!
he now leads by 86 votes!!

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

Hopefully him leading will bode well for the runoff.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
yeah i think it would really help
unfortunately, 57% of pulaski came in and Lincoln is still winning there and now Halter is down again. Atleast it's close.

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

[ Parent ]
Whoa
Halter up by 86!

Poor Blanche should have kept her mouth shut the past year and a half

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)


Boozman at under 45%

Didn't expect that.

I got so excited
but he's above 51% now :(

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Nvm
called for Boozman. Bah!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Just got called for him
51.5%

[ Parent ]
Elliott is beating Wills
pretty convincingly 41-27.  This seat is safe R with Elliott as the candidate.  Probably lean R with Wills.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

Poor Specter...
in the end he only won 3 counties, 2 of those by a hair.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


PA-06
AP has Trivedi ahead 51-49 with 95% reporting. SOS is ahead and shows similar results, so it's probably 96+ reporting.

Stick a fork in Doug Pike...?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


The remaining 6 precincts in Chester, +106 gain for Pike. NOT ENOUGH!
Trivendi wins.

[ Parent ]
Excellent!
aside from a few minor things like boozman winning a majority, and the PA Sen primary (which I was neutral on), tonight is great :)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
AP is nearly caught up
and they say 98.2%. not seeing how Pike wins this.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
PA-17: David Argall squeaks out a win to get the GOP nod
His margin should be large enough.

Yay!!!
While it may be a bit premature yet, DeLay is running ahead of Bledsoe at the moment. If he can keep ahead, that once again removes the the possability of a new GOP congresswoman.

Where's that race? n/t


"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
AR-03 I think?
n/t

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Looks like 100 is gonna win.
still 64-36 with 73% in. http://www.azsos.gov/results/2...

My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


In AZ is a win a win?
 
  It doesn't need two thirds, does it?

    I hope it passes because AZ really needs some revenue apparently. I traveled through Arizona this week and found that the state had closed all the roadside rest areas except at the incoming borders. They also have closed some of their state parks and have plans to close more. So far it is leading in all the counties except Mohave (NW Arizona, Kingman and Bullhead City).  

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28


[ Parent ]
Lincoln ahead by 7000 votes
I'm happy there's a run off but I was hoping for a closer result based on the earlier results.

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

Arkansas Land Commissioner L. Bryant
For a split second, I thought Lane Bryant was running to become Arkansas Land Commissioner. Sadly no, but it's LJ Bryant, a young dude with big teeth, and he's in the runoff with a guy named Monty Davenport, who has 2.5 chins and looks like the picture in the dictionary next to "good ole boy."

Upon further investigation, I have to say this is an interesting under-the-radar race: the LJ Bryant dude is 23 (!) and got a swinging endorsement over three-term state Rep. Monty Davenport & the other dude who just got eliminated (R. Berg) from the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, the state's biggest paper.

Sometimes editorialists are confronted with multiple candidates running for the same office-all of whom are qualified, eager to serve, knowledgeable about the job, open to new ideas, humble enough about the opportunity but confident enough in themselves to suggest something along the lines of leadership. So after all the interviews, the editorial writers argue among themselves about whom to endorse and why. They review notes to decide on why Candidate A is just a touch better than B or C or D, then write a piece explaining how great it is that voters have so many fine candidates to choose from.

This isn't one of those editorials. There is a clear choice in the Democratic primary for Arkansas' land commissioner. He's young man named LJ Bryant.

They go on to sing his praises (mostly along the lines of "he's a competent technocrat who would introduce badly-needed modernization") while dismissing the other two candidates without mentioning them. And they end with...

in the Democratic primary, do yourself and the state of Arkansas a favor: vote LJ Bryant.

Dude, if you're 23 and the state's biggest, most influential newspaper goes to the mat for you like that, you're doing something right.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


Oh
common now Paul, the least you can do is accept Grayson's call after beating him by what, 20 points.

http://www.wcpo.com/news/local...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


I get a hunch
that a bunch of Grayson supporters will line up behind Conway. They know how weird Paul is, and I really don't think they'll support him in the end.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

[ Parent ]
I'm a repub and I would vote Conway
over a Paul bot any day. The guy is nuts.  

[ Parent ]
I'm hearing that a lot
A lot of Grayson supporters are coming out saying that they will either vote for Conway in the general, or not vote at all. The Tea Party really fractured the Kentucky GOP, which boads very well for Democrats. Howard Dean was giddy with excitment today on the prospect of facing Paul.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

[ Parent ]
KY-Sen: Keep this in mind.
With 100% of the precincts reporting, the KY-Sen numbers show this:

Jack Conway (D)     226,773
Dan Mongiardo (D)   221,269
Rand Paul (R)       206,159
Trey Grayson (R)    124,238
Darlene Price (D)    28,172
James Buckmaster (D) 20,318
Maurice Sweeney (D)  17,641
Bill Johnson (R)      7,825
John Stephenson (R)   6,861
Jon Scribner (R)      2,853
Gurley Martin (R)     2,847

Total Dem: 514,173 votes
Total GOP: 350,783 votes

So even the no-name candidates in the Democratic primary all got well over 15,000 votes each, while the no-names in the GOP primary couldn't break the 8,000 vote mark.

Interestingly enough, in the GOP primary, Gurley Martin is an 86-year-old WWII Army veteran, and from his website, looks to be both a birther and a tenther.  Not even a bio on his site.

Stephenson was the final state superintendent of public instruction, as Kentucky voters voted to abolish that office in 1992.  And he was a Democrat back then too, having left the party because he's pro-life.


If Chris Dudley
gets as high of a vote percentage as his career free throw percentage, I'd be extremely surprised.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

LOL!
From the Chris Dudley Facebook group:

Once, in a game on April 14, 1990, Dudley missed 17 of 18 foul shots, including a record 13 straight. He finished his career with a .458 free throw percentage, making him one of the worst free throw shooters of all time.


"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
I remember him
as a member of the Knicks (granted I was like 7 or 8 when he was here) and I remember he had the funkiest shot, one that I would try to emulate in the gym. Needless to say, I definitely had a poor shooting role model at the time.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

[ Parent ]
I remember him, too
Marv Albert: "And the free throw...and Chris Dudley throws up a brick! It hits the front iron and bounds away."

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Great Night for Dems...
Lincoln is finished.  She will lose the runoff. An incumbent pulled into a runoff almost always loses. The Morrison votes will disappear from the runoff for the most part. The good thing is Halter is NOT an incumbent. I perceive that nationally Halter is considered more liberal, but in Ark. not so much, perhaps.

The bad news is Boozman is a heavy favorite regardless.  Maybe Clinton and an improving economy can pull it out for Halter though.

PA-12 is HUGE,IMO.  KY is now winnable.PA is more winnable now too.

How won the imaginary babka?  I missed PA-12 and the runoff for ARk., so it wasn't me.  


Like frickin' clockwork
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Off topic but I just had to post it. Actually could be worse. Makes me think more he can survive it. But a waste of DSCC funds that could go to Conway and Sestak.


Even if Rasmussen is taken at 100% face value
There will be a bounce back (assuming no more damaging revelations).

[ Parent ]
Th fact Blumenthal is up by 3 points still
Tells me that McMahon still has a tough race ahead of her if she wants to win this thing.  Which is good for us.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
I've moved it from
Dem favored to leans Dem FWIW.

[ Parent ]
Yeah I agree.
I thought this would drop all the way to toss-up but Lean Democrat seems to be better option especially if McMahon (who supposedly leaked this information to the New York Times) can cause a massive wound in Blumenthal and still be behind (in Republican leaning Rasmussen of all polling firms).

[ Parent ]
I'm suprised that Blumenthal is still ahead.
I was expecting for him to be behind both McMahon and Simmons by mid single digits, but if he is still ahead even now then perhaps the great pessimism that many people on SSP had yesterday and the view that Blumenthal's political career were over was way premature.

I do find it very interesting that Rasmussen again finds McMahon polling stronger in the general than Simmons (and this time, MUCH stronger). That Blumenthal is at 50% and 11 points ahead of Simmons is mind boggling. I would have thought that with Simmons being an actual Vietnam vet and McMahon's own troubles with the WWE that he would have benefited immensely from Blumenthal's woes, but I guess McMahon's money is just too much, and her fortune is a bigger asset in the general election than Simmons' congressional service and military record.


[ Parent ]
If you look into the interals, McMahon performs about 10% better than Simmons among Indies


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Question- Will Jim DeMint endorse in CT, McMahon? eom


[ Parent ]
Schiff?
Probably nobody.

[ Parent ]
Ras also has Obama at worst approval
in a long time, and Gallup has gotten pretty bad too frankly.  Anyone have any idea why?  My only guess is the sputtering stock market, as he's gotten good marks on handling of the oil spill and the foiled terror attack.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Gallup was up to 51% a few days ago
It has come down but I wouldn't worry until it becomes a trend.

[ Parent ]
I caught that.
I really need to stop looking at these things every day.  It's like weighing yourself everyday - causes unnecessary freakouts.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
I learned that in 2008
Those trackers are not good for your blood pressure!

[ Parent ]
Not a surprise...
that Rasmussen polled this race immediately after the news broke out, before Blumenthal had a chance to explain his side.

[ Parent ]
NY-14: Maloney up 75-7 (!) over Saujani
Yeah but
I expect the undecideds to break 2-1 for Saujani, which will get her almost to 20%.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
All that press over some dudette
who seems to have gotten more attention than say Brad Ellsworth.

[ Parent ]
Mongiardo wants recanvass of vote
Link.

Oh eff that guy
You lost, you loser, just like in 2004, give it up.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Well Politico said he still conceded.
Don't know why he would ask for a re-canvassing of the vote if he conceded but who knows? Not that the outcome would really change, as the race was definitely close but a a few thousand vote margin is nearly impossible to overcome.

[ Parent ]
More than 5,504 according to Politico
With votes still out in Louisville.

[ Parent ]
"Things do not look good for Sen. Lincoln"
a good night for the good guys
i would think that really we will be running the same race in many states.  here's how it goes:

Vote for me because HE'S CRAZY!

I think Conway, Sestak, and Meek are better candidates in 2010 (maybe not in a different year but definitely in 2010) than other candidates because they are clean and fresh and less connected to Washington as usual.  The simple races are:

Conway (good-looking, smart, squeaky clean but democratic politics in a GOP-state in federal races) vs. Paul (also good looking but crazy far-right politics- HE'S CRAZY)
Sestak (impressive - outside DC record, independent) vs Toomey (harsh, extreme right wing politics - HE'S CRAZY)
Meek (impressive personal story, progressive record, not really an outsider - although as a black man, it would be hard to argue that he's a good old boy) vs Marco Rubio (angry outsider - HE'S CRAZY)

So maybe the recipe is sane outsider vs crazy outsider.


I disagree with some of your examples
Sestak is a sitting Congressman and Toomey is a former Congressman. Neither are outsiders from DC. Also, Toomey is hard right but has been soft-pedaling that, so Sestak will probably have to run just as good a general election campaign as his primary campaign in order to win.

Rubio is not running as a teabagger but as a mainstream conservative, and is former Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives, so he's actually an establishment guy, just not DC, but certainly not an outsider. As for your claim that Meek has a clean record, you need to read this. I don't think Meek has a good chance to win at all.

So that leaves Conway-Paul.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
don't know about Meek, but
Sestak is running as a Navy vet not a congressman.  And his two terms are not sufficient to make him a DC guy.  Besides he just ran against the quintessential insider with all the insiders backing him and stated in his victory speech that "we won against Washington."  So I would say he has considerable outsider cred and that's how he's running.  Toomey can try to pretend he's a mainstream politician but he has never been and his positions, like Paul's and Rubio's, can only be soft-pedalled so much.

In none of these cases, am I saying that these are easy races.  But we are running against the extreme right, revolt candidates (Toomey ran out moderate Specter, Rubio ran out moderate Crist, and Paul beat out mainstream Grayson) and this should provide considerable ammo and an opportunity to exploit the GOP split.  

That is how we have to run, I think.


[ Parent ]

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