What the was the point of polling this race?

I mean, if you are going to poll KY primaries, my thought would be that the democratic Primary would have been a better choice.

This many have been one of those polls where people on the PPP website voted on what to poll, and the Paulbots may have spammed that.

Anyone have guesses as to who will win the Dem Primary?

I really hope its Conway, so much so that I think it is clouding my judgment when I say I think he will be the winner.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

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by: daman09 @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 06:56:18 AM UTC

Except for the innumerable redundat NY-Gov polls

this does seem the most pointless poll of the cycle, especially when the Dem race is 1000% times more interesting.

Maybe next we'll get a Dem CA-Gov poll, but no Republican one.

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by: tommypaine @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 07:11:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

well, lookit

You can still poll the "easy" ones just to make sure that your polling accurately captures voter sentiment in advance of the final results.  It's a good test run.

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by: Adam B. @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 13:29:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tom said on Twitter

That KY-Sen (R) polls had in the past yielded good media attention for PPP - something they need in order to keep doing all this free public polling.

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by: DavidNYC @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 13:35:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ummm...how quickly we forget

Even the 'final poll' of any race has a small but finite margin of error.

Take MN-Sen last year, when the recount flipped 1K out of 3M votes.  That was enough to put the good guy over the top.

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by: JimM @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 13:40:29 PM UTC

I think he meant the actual election

not an actual poll

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by: rdw72777 @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 16:38:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I believe

his point was that the election night tally/whatever it is is not necessarily the "final" poll either; you have to consider absentees/provisional ballots, ballots that were improperly rejected, etc. of course, these are usually overlooked in all but the closest of elections.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 16:53:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

College students in KY need to be rioting in the streets

against Rand Paul.  We knew his positions on the issues, but I thought being on camera with Grayson might temper his views.  No pell grants?  No Perkins Loans?  What state of agency does Kentucky have to deal with these matter or is Mitch McConnell going to have to set a new record for the amount of money brought back to a state by a single U.S. Senator?  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

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by: ModerateIADem @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 16:48:35 PM UTC

Well

that's why Rand Paul is ahead in the polls. The tea party would love to get rid of pell grants, perkins loans. Hell if the teabaggers could, they would get rid of government completely.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

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by: ehstronghold @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 17:30:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Which is why a bunch many of my college friends supported

Ron Paul for President.  Fucking anarchists.

There was a discussion awhile back about college students supporting Ron Paul and I didnt include myself even though I should have.  I was on my blackberry and forgot to get back to it.

Lots of college students in fact love the Pauls because they think they are social liberals and fiscal conservatives.  Dont tax the crap out of me because I've got student loans and let my gay friends get married.  That is something

I went to a Catholic univ. and it had a very strong justice and peace studies program.  The Twin Cities has an extremely strong peace community also and Catholic churches in the area are big conduits for poverty oriented programming.  So I knew a lot of people who were so liberal that they just hated all government, because big business is out screw us and the government is corrupt.  So they love Paul because he wants to dismantle everything.  ::sigh::  The logic they had and the way it fits into their overall ideology really was just cutting off your nose to spite your face.

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by: Andrew @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 21:25:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They know he is vehemently

Anti-abortion right?

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by: conspiracy @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 21:27:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Probably not at all

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by: Andrew @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 21:54:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Its not that right wing

I mean the removal of Federal govt involvement in education is a pretty strong principle in the Republican party.  It was only a few years back the Republicans tried to abolish the Dept of Education at the Federal level.  And that was a great move for Democrats as it made Republicans easy to attack as anti-education.

No one will riot because even if they are against programs, no one ever turns down free money for their state.  They will complain that they are playing by the rules as they are, but still want to abolish the Fed's involvement.  But Paul will still be happy to get Federeal funding for his state's education but complain about the process the whole time.  

It s agreat system we have lol.

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by: rdw72777 @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 17:40:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, we need better negative advertising against that sort of crap.

I'm of the opinion that we just have to make people realize the sort of crap that that's going to happen.

Also, education is already primarily controlled by the states.  What more do they want?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 20:46:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wait until November

I would expect that to be an issue after the primary dust is settled. Both Dem candidates are still trying to figure out who is going to be their November candidate, and the Kentucky GOP has been so bruised by their candidate not winning that the Dems are just going to soak it in for a little bit.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

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by: Anthony_Distler @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 20:51:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is Good News ... For Democrats

From every bit of polling available, Grayson would have this thing wrapped up almost from the word "go."  Instead, the Tea Party may get their first REAL win of primary season, and that's the only thing Democrats have going for them in November.  Insurgent victories help Democrats - whether it's a GOP insurgent or a Democratic insurgent.  In fact, the best possible matchup for those who hope for a party switch in Kentucky is insurgent vs. insurgent...

http://tinyurl.com/27goyou

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by: Yeggo @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 21:07:44 PM UTC

I think Conway can beat Paul, Mongiardo perhaps not

The way I currently see it...

Dem - 45%
GOP - 38%
Indie - 17%

Conway - 90/13/44 = 53%
Paul - 10/87/56 = 47%

Mongiardo - 83/7/38 = 46%
Paul - 17/93/62 = 54%

And, unfortunately, I suspect Mongiardo might indeed prevail tomorrow.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 21:53:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]