Google Ads


Site Stats

KY-Sen: Team Grayson Sputters to Finish Line Down 18 Points

by: James L.

Mon May 17, 2010 at 2:43 AM EDT


Public Policy Polling (5/15-16, likely voters, 5/1-2 in parens):

Rand Paul (R): 52 (46)
Trey Grayson (R): 34 (28)
Undecided: 7 (21)
Other: 7 (4)
(MoE: ±3.0%)

Stick a fork in 'im? Either we're the subject of the biggest case of respondent hornswaggling in polling history, or Rand Paul should win this one in a walk. Let's take a moment to reflect on just how formidable Grayson seemed when he first started "exploring" this race, and when he started threatening to primary incumbent Sen. Jim Bunning out of existence. Little did he -- or anyone else, really -- suspect that the Alex Jones-brown-nosing, never-before-elected son of Libertarian fetishist icon Ron Paul would knock off the star player of the Kentucky Republican Party's bench in a primary. That's an accomplishment for the ages.

Sadly, PPP chose not to spend its finite resources on the Democratic primary. That's a real shame, considering that that's actually looking like a real race after several recent polls have shown state AG Jack Conway closing in on Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo. But, we don't have to wait too much longer until the final poll of this race -- the one with the 0.0% margin of error -- is released.

James L. :: KY-Sen: Team Grayson Sputters to Finish Line Down 18 Points
Tags: , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

What the was the point of polling this race?
I mean, if you are going to poll KY primaries, my thought would be that the democratic Primary would have been a better choice.

This many have been one of those polls where people on the PPP website voted on what to poll, and the Paulbots may have spammed that.

Anyone have guesses as to who will win the Dem Primary?

I really hope its Conway, so much so that I think it is clouding my judgment when I say I think he will be the winner.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


Except for the innumerable redundat NY-Gov polls
this does seem the most pointless poll of the cycle, especially when the Dem race is 1000% times more interesting.

Maybe next we'll get a Dem CA-Gov poll, but no Republican one.


[ Parent ]
well, lookit
You can still poll the "easy" ones just to make sure that your polling accurately captures voter sentiment in advance of the final results.  It's a good test run.

[ Parent ]
Tom said on Twitter
That KY-Sen (R) polls had in the past yielded good media attention for PPP - something they need in order to keep doing all this free public polling.

[ Parent ]
Ummm...how quickly we forget
Even the 'final poll' of any race has a small but finite margin of error.

Take MN-Sen last year, when the recount flipped 1K out of 3M votes.  That was enough to put the good guy over the top.


I think he meant the actual election
not an actual poll

[ Parent ]
I believe
his point was that the election night tally/whatever it is is not necessarily the "final" poll either; you have to consider absentees/provisional ballots, ballots that were improperly rejected, etc. of course, these are usually overlooked in all but the closest of elections.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
College students in KY need to be rioting in the streets
against Rand Paul.  We knew his positions on the issues, but I thought being on camera with Grayson might temper his views.  No pell grants?  No Perkins Loans?  What state of agency does Kentucky have to deal with these matter or is Mitch McConnell going to have to set a new record for the amount of money brought back to a state by a single U.S. Senator?  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2


Well
that's why Rand Paul is ahead in the polls. The tea party would love to get rid of pell grants, perkins loans. Hell if the teabaggers could, they would get rid of government completely.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Which is why a bunch many of my college friends supported
Ron Paul for President.  Fucking anarchists.

There was a discussion awhile back about college students supporting Ron Paul and I didnt include myself even though I should have.  I was on my blackberry and forgot to get back to it.

Lots of college students in fact love the Pauls because they think they are social liberals and fiscal conservatives.  Dont tax the crap out of me because I've got student loans and let my gay friends get married.  That is something

I went to a Catholic univ. and it had a very strong justice and peace studies program.  The Twin Cities has an extremely strong peace community also and Catholic churches in the area are big conduits for poverty oriented programming.  So I knew a lot of people who were so liberal that they just hated all government, because big business is out screw us and the government is corrupt.  So they love Paul because he wants to dismantle everything.  ::sigh::  The logic they had and the way it fits into their overall ideology really was just cutting off your nose to spite your face.


[ Parent ]
They know he is vehemently
Anti-abortion right?

[ Parent ]
Probably not at all


[ Parent ]
Its not that right wing
I mean the removal of Federal govt involvement in education is a pretty strong principle in the Republican party.  It was only a few years back the Republicans tried to abolish the Dept of Education at the Federal level.  And that was a great move for Democrats as it made Republicans easy to attack as anti-education.

No one will riot because even if they are against programs, no one ever turns down free money for their state.  They will complain that they are playing by the rules as they are, but still want to abolish the Fed's involvement.  But Paul will still be happy to get Federeal funding for his state's education but complain about the process the whole time.  

It s agreat system we have lol.


[ Parent ]
Well, we need better negative advertising against that sort of crap.
I'm of the opinion that we just have to make people realize the sort of crap that that's going to happen.

Also, education is already primarily controlled by the states.  What more do they want?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
Wait until November
I would expect that to be an issue after the primary dust is settled. Both Dem candidates are still trying to figure out who is going to be their November candidate, and the Kentucky GOP has been so bruised by their candidate not winning that the Dems are just going to soak it in for a little bit.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

[ Parent ]
This is Good News ... For Democrats
From every bit of polling available, Grayson would have this thing wrapped up almost from the word "go."  Instead, the Tea Party may get their first REAL win of primary season, and that's the only thing Democrats have going for them in November.  Insurgent victories help Democrats - whether it's a GOP insurgent or a Democratic insurgent.  In fact, the best possible matchup for those who hope for a party switch in Kentucky is insurgent vs. insurgent...

http://tinyurl.com/27goyou


I think Conway can beat Paul, Mongiardo perhaps not
The way I currently see it...

Dem - 45%
GOP - 38%
Indie - 17%

Conway - 90/13/44 = 53%
Paul - 10/87/56 = 47%

Mongiardo - 83/7/38 = 46%
Paul - 17/93/62 = 54%

And, unfortunately, I suspect Mongiardo might indeed prevail tomorrow.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About the Site

SSP Resources

Blogroll

Powered by: SoapBlox