Google Ads


Site Stats

GA-09, WV-01, NE-02: Results Open Thread

by: James L.

Tue May 11, 2010 at 6:30 PM EDT


12:56am: The AP calls it for Maynard.
12:03am: With 573 of 613 precincts in, Maynard leads Gearheart by 30-28 (or just 400 votes).
10:28pm: With 75% in, Maynard leads Marty Gearheart by 29-26 in WV-03. None of these guys raised any money for this primary.
10:13pm: I'm engrossed in a wave of NE-02 nostalgia. Who would have guessed that Lee Terry would embrace Barack Obama so hard, yet Jim Esch was the one who slagged Hillary Clinton and ultimately quit the Democratic Party!
10:08pm: Touching base in Nebraska, GOP Rep. Lee Terry is winning his primary with a meek 66% with over 25% of precincts reporting. Obama-Terry voters, anyone?
9:59pm: In WV-01, the AP has also called the GOP race for ex-state Rep. David McKinley. In WV-03, longtime incumbent Nick Rahall is sitting at an underwhelming 66%, while Spike Maynard, a corrupt ex-Democrat leads his closest competitor by 30-28 with just over half of precincts in.
9:54pm: Over in Massachusetts, the GOP held Scott Brown's seat easily.
9:50pm: The AP just called the race for Mike Oliverio.
9:46pm: Put another way, Mollohan needs 61% of the remaining vote in order to eke out a win. Unless he has some amazing precincts left in his favor, that will be very hard. Meanwhile, on the GOP side, McKinley leads Warner 36-25. There are no runoffs in WV.
9:43pm: Unless Mollohan has a serious rabbit in his hat, it looks like he's pretty screwed. He trails Oliverio by 56-44 with over two thirds of the vote counted.
9:24pm: Oh, yeah, and in GA-09, Tom Graves and Lee Hawkins, both Republicans, are headed to the runoff with 35% and 20%, respectively. Mike Freeman, the lone Dem in this race, scored a whopping 6%. Wow...
9:18pm: With over a third of precincts reporting, Oliverio is up by 12%.
8:52pm: 16% in now in WV-01 and Oliverio's up by 11. Yipes.
8:27pm: Over in WV-01, with 5 of 670 precincts in, Oliverio leads Mollohan by 55-45. In the GOP primary, McKinley has 66%.
8:13pm: Well hell - Politico's results aren't showing all the candidates in GA-09, so scratch that last update. It's Graves in front with 33, but Steve Tarvin is in second with 22.
7:59pm: With 20% of precincts reporting in GA-09, Tom Graves is at 33 and Chris Cates is at 18. Lee Hawkins is in third with 13, and the lone Dem, Mike Freeman, has just 8.

Georgia Results: Georgia SoS | Associated Press | Politico

West Virginia: Associated Press | Politico

Nebraska: Associated Press | Politico

Polls close at 7:30pm Eastern for the Republican and Democratic primaries in WV-01, where Alan Mollohan appears to be in the race of his life, and at 7pm in Georgia for the special election to replace GOP Rep. Nathan Deal. One other race worth watching is the special election to replace Scott Brown in the Massachusetts State Senate. Polls close at 8pm for that race. And in Nebraska, GOP Rep. Lee Terry faces a teabagger challenge. Polls there close at 9pm.

We'll be using this thread to follow the results. If you have any good results links in your pocket, please post 'em in the comments.

James L. :: GA-09, WV-01, NE-02: Results Open Thread
Tags: , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Projections
What's everyone think?

Mollohan seems done, and this Oliverio guy sounds more right wing than Shelley Moore Capito, the lone Repub rep in WV.

As for Georgia, no real impact relating to the values of this blog (do they pick the far right Repub or the far-far right Repub), but I'll make the bold prediciton of a runoff LOL.  

As for Scott Brown, I'll pick Smulowitz the D.

And I'll probably be wrong about all 3 lol.


Why does Mollohan seem done?
Since their respective internal polls show each camp leading the other, I'd say it's a toss-up.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Mollohan certainly not done
So far this cycle the incumbent Dems doing the worst in their primaries have been the ones who voted against health care (Kissell, Shuler). Mollohan voted for it but still voted against the toxic-in-WV cap and trade. I bet he survives.

[ Parent ]
Sorry
To me there was no chance he survived, which now we know is true.

He had just been through an ethics investigation, and his recent votes did not match with his districts beliefs.  He didn't have much of a chance in this climate.  


[ Parent ]
GA Results
Here's a link to the results of tonight's GA races:

http://sos.georgia.gov/electio...


i predict
mollohan gets around 60% of the vote, the two guys mentioned in the daily digest go to a runoff, and nobody cares about Nebraska's 2nd...no incumbent republicans in r-leaning districts should be worried this year

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

Except
For bennent, and gibbons, and jan brewer, etc

[ Parent ]
i meant worried in the general
sorry

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
Looks like Carter's going to win
33% in and he has 75% of the vote.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



Yep, Carter easily wins
This is a heavily Jewish district and a lot's been made of Jimmy Carter's deteriorating relations with the Jewish community.  There's been a lot of speculation he tried to mend relations just to help his grandson.  Seems to have worked.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
You know
I think he could have a good future in Georgia politics. What CD does he live in? I could definitely see him running statewide someday as well.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Either the Fourth or the Fifth


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Oh yeah, forgot the 5th has some of DeKalb
His district's mostly in the 4th though.  Assuming the next district map is mostly the same I'd say his best choices are the 4th or 13th.  The 4th would know him the best (though his last name can offset that a bit) and the 13th is whiter than the other two (though I think race is becoming less of an issue than it was only a few years ago).  The 5th in kind of in the middle: he's not as well known and demographically it's not as good for him.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
I wonder when a white Democrat will win a Metro ATL CD
And which one would it be? I could see Carter maybe winning the 5th one day if ATL continues to become whiter and the more AA parts are put into a district like the 13th. I think the 4th is probably too black to elect a white Democrat and the 13th is trending that way as well but both could do it conceivably.  

[ Parent ]
It'll take some changing among whites
We just don't have enough contiguous areas of solidly Democratic whites.  I've tried making a white-majority, Democratic-majority Metro Atlanta seat from North Atlanta, North DeKalb, parts of Sandy Springs, but I couldn't do it.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I think it's possible Carter's name could help him win over a lot of black voters who appreciated Jimmy Carter's civil rights record
I know as Governor Jimmy Carter put up MLK's portrait in the Capitol, which was appreciated.  There are some parallels to Mitch Landrieu's win in NOLA: his father Moon Landrieu won a lot of praise for opening city hall to blacks for the first time and for being one of only a few white Southern politicians to vote against racist laws.

Of course the comparisons are far from exact.  Mitch Landrieu had his own record of accomplishments while Jason Carter's starting from scratch.  Also Mitch Landrieu was easily the best known candidate of any race: who knows who will run against Jason Carter if he makes the leap.  But I'd suggest Landrieu's win proves it's possible.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
At the state legislature level...
...we do have several white Democrats representing majority black districts.  For example, Karla Drenner, Nan Orrock, Ely Dobbs, etc.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Not sure where he lives but his district is all in Dekalb County
Here are some of the district's major towns: http://www.legis.state.ga.us/l...

He'll represent mostly GA-4.  I don't think it would be out of the question for him to run in GA-13 though.  of course we don't know how much of Dekalb will be in the new districts.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
That town listing is wrong.
For some reason, they always list every city in the counties within the district, even if those cities are not in the district.  Chamblee and Doraville, for example, are not in this district.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Oh, thanks!
Does the district have any large parts in other counties?

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
No it's all Dekalb
West Dekalb, really which is split between the 5th and 4th CD.  

[ Parent ]
Entirely within DeKalb
http://image.wetpaint.com/imag...

Judging from that map, the 42nd includes all or parts of Decatur, Avondale Estates, North Druid Hills, and the DeKalb portions of Atlanta.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


[ Parent ]
Nebraska AP link
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/f...

I'm predicting a narrow Mollohan victory, around 52-53%. I'm usually wrong on these primary things, though.


There's one other fairly interesting race there
Don Stenberg is running in the GOP Primary for Treasurer.  He was AG from 1991-2003: and lost three Senate races.  He lost the primary to Hagel in 1996, the general to Nelson narrowly in 2000, and he lost the primary to Pete Ricketts in 2006.  Can he revive his career or are his repeated losses making him to Mark Greenish?

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
About 20-25% in, and he's up 54-25-21. He's back. Again.


[ Parent ]
Some dude named Tarvin (R) is in second place, GA-9
He has 22% of the vote.

Tarvin
Catoosa and Walker Counties, surely like Tarwin.  

[ Parent ]
He's on a city council in Walker County
Which is next to Catoosa. It's likely regional support.

[ Parent ]
Tarvin is just some councilman from Chickamauga (yes,Chickamauga )
Chickamauga is in Walker county, so those Chickamaugas are out in force.

[ Parent ]
What about Murray County
Tarvin got 334 from Murray, second. For a councilman, this guy did well in his region.  

[ Parent ]
That will change
Hawkins' base (and Freeman's) is Hall and it has yet to report.

[ Parent ]
as we are seeing...
Freeman is doing quite well. But I am still watching this guy Tarvin. Is Hall near Catoosa and Walker?  

[ Parent ]
No
Other side of the district.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
While we are waiting
I saw that it was mentioned earlier that Brown's former MA Senate district has a name to it. I think it would be interesting if we added names to our numbering system of Congressional districts, although perhaps it would be difficult given the size of some districts and the complex gerrymandering involved in many states. Nevertheless, at least it would provide some kind of community aspect to districts that a number cannot simply provide and hopefully some really interesting names !

Not Sure That Would Work
Given how big US congressional districts are. But it is an awfully fun thing re: English MPs. I mean how often do you get to say things like Bootle or Altrincham and Sale West, to say nothing of Hornchurch and Penistone.

[ Parent ]
Or even Gordon Brown's district
It would be much more exciting to say I represent Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath than the 5th district of Scotland !

[ Parent ]
So, British or Canadian style, then
This is something James and I have joked about for a while - my district is Yorkville-Astoria. So, what would you call GA-09? Or WV-01?

[ Parent ]
Well the Norm in WV
Is to refer to your county as where you are from. And WV-01 covers a lot of counties, so I have no idea.

[ Parent ]
Polidata tries to give each a name
They call the former iteration of this district "NORTHERN TIER; DALTON; GAINESVILLE."

[ Parent ]
Hmmm
For WV-01: Wheeling-Morgantownshire?  The Vale of Rust?  Coalbury Hills?

GA-09: LaFayettefaire?  AppalachiaGeorgia?  

Hmmm....

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
For WV-01
Monongahela South, Parkersburg, and Panhandle

[ Parent ]
The folks over at CQ sort of do that in their annual Politics in America compendiums
WV-01: North - Parkersburg, Wheeling, Morgantown
GA-09: North - Dalton, Gainesville

I've been a fan of the British/Canadian style as well for a long time. Oddly, it would almost seem more quintessentially American to put the emphasis on individual locality rather than nondescript enumeration. But, yeah, the problem is that CD's, in comparison to parliamentary constituencies in Canada and the UK, are pretty huge, making it difficult in many cases to single out and weight specific communities - gerrymandering adds a whole other layer of complication to this.

Male, 23, DC-At Large


[ Parent ]
Here is a list of the California districts.
01 - North Coast
02 - Northern Sacramento Valley
03 - Sacramento suburbs
04 - Northern Mountain
05 - Sacramento
06 - Marin-Sonoma
07 - Richmond-Concord-Vallejo
08 - San Francisco
09 - Berkeley-Oakland
10 - Fairfield-Walnut Creek-Livermore
11 - Lodi-San Ramon-Pleasanton
12 - San Mateo-South San Francisco
13 - Fremont
14 - Redwood City-Palo Alto
15 - Silicon Valley
16 - San Jose
17 - Santa Cruz-Monterey
18 - Stockton-Modesto-Merced
19 - Yosemite
20 - Fresno
21 - Tulare
22 - Bakersfield
23 - Southern Central Coast
24 - Inland Southern Central Coast
25 - High Desert
26 - Arcadia-Glendora-Rancho Cucamonga
27 - West San Fernando Valley
28 - East San Fernando Valley
29 - Burbank-Glendale-Pasadena
30 - West Side L.A.
31 - Hollywood
32 - Baldwin Park-Covina
33 - Culver City
34 - Downtown L.A.
35 - South Central L.A.
36 - Beach Cities
37 - Carson-Long Beach
38 - Pomona-East L.A.
39 - South Gate-Cerritos
40 - Cypress-Fullerton-Orange
41 - Northern Inland Empire
42 - Western Inland Empire
43 - Fontana-San Bernardino
44 - Corona-Riverside
45 - Most of Riverside County
46 - Palos Verdes-Huntington Beach-Costa Mesa
47 - Anaheim-Garden Grove-Santa Ana
48 - Newport Beach-Irvine-Laguna Beach
49 - Temecula-Oceanside
50 - San Diego North Coast
51 - Imperial County-Chula Vista
52 - Poway-Santee-El Cajon
53 - San Diego

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Nice, here's Ohio
1 - Cincinnati
2 - Western Ohio River
3 - Dayton-Wilmington
4 - Lima-Findlay-Mansfield
5 - Defiance-Bowling Green-Norwalk
6 - Eastern Ohio River
7 - Springfield-Lancaster
8 - Hamilton-Troy
9 - Toledo-Sandusky
10 - Cleveland West
11 - Cleveland East
12 - Columbus North-Licking Valley
13 - Lorain-Strongsville-Akron
14 - Lake-Ashtabula
15 - Columbus West
16 - Medina-Wooster-Canton
17 - Warren-Youngstown
18 - Zanesville-Hocking Hills

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Nick Rahall
Rahall looks like he's off to a fairly convincing victory, right now at 65% with 9 of 614 precincts in. It would be nice to see that number finish above 70%. Gearheart is leading the three-way battle on the Republican side.

Really uninspiring victory, really
his opponent was a crackpot who raised no money. Check out his website:

http://www.brucebarilla.us/


[ Parent ]
Yeah
It's always amazing how absurd candidates can receive fairly significant portions of the vote in primaries, which usually require some degree of highly participative voting, with the impeach-Obama Democratic candidate even winning one Texas primary. I suppose for WV-03, the result is simply because many nationally oriented Republicans are still voting in Democratic primaries.

[ Parent ]
Wow
I'm sorry but is he really a Democrat? Just wow. I thought Tracy Potter's site was bad to. Man did he pay his 13 year old nephew to make that for him or what.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Those First WV Precincts
Are from the Northern Panhandle, so it's not surprising McKinley takes the initial lead on the Republican side.

WOW. Oliverio leads Mollohan in Marion county!
Mollohan is from Marion county.

So's Oliverio
He represents Morgantown, but was born in the same city as Mollohan.

[ Parent ]
Wood County?
How can there be over a 1000 votes counted but it says "0" precincts reporting.  

[ Parent ]
They are probably absentee votes..


[ Parent ]
MA Special Sen election
Looks bad for the Dem, if reports from multiple MA sources are true. Supposedly Ross (R) won Smulowitz hometown of Needham, by a pretty big margin. Needham is the biggest liberal center in the district.  

Not
that surprising. You guys have a great candidate who is Brown's protégé. I wonder if that state rep would have done better. Oh well it would have been a symbolic thing than anything else. Do you have a link for results? Thanks in advance.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Oh yeah
She would have kept it MUCH closer. She would have probably won Needham, the liberal center of the district. Ross won it because Smulowitz burned so many bridges there in the primary against Harkins, the towns state Rep. She refused to endorse him, and never ruled out endorsing Ross. I don't think she ever did though.  

[ Parent ]
Repubs win Scott Brown district
Smulowitz is telling the press that Ross won. Ross outperformed Scott Brown here. He won Needham by 200 votes, a town Obama carried with 66% and Coakley carried with 52%.
No link yet.  

I'm calling it - Mike Oliviero wins.
Mollohan is losing too many counties.

Sadly I agree
We'll lose this seat in November.

Bennett...Mollohan
Who else is in danger???


[ Parent ]
burton was
jane harman? stephen lynch? mike arcuri? bob inglis?

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
No
We will not lose this seat in November. We'll lose it about half way through Oliverio's first term when he switches parties. I'm sorry but he just has Parker Griffith written all over him. He is old school dem more conservative than some Republicans and will more than likely carry the district in November. I could be wrong about the party switching thing though. You never know, I always thought Bright would switch and it never happened.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
One bright spot about Oliverio...
According to Project Vote Smart, he has a 100% score from the WV AFL-CIO.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Bright has switched...
YET!!!  ( just wait til November if the GOP takes back Congress!)

[ Parent ]
I think you left out a "hasn't"
But I agree with the "yet" part.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Understandable
He does, after all, have a higher "conservative" rating than several Republicans.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Can you substantiate that?
I recall reading a post by Nate on 538.com where he showed a considerable gap between the most conservative Democrat in the House and the most liberal Republican.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Yep.
http://www.conservative.org/ra...

It's not very easy to do comparisons across state lines, but you can see Bright is more conservative than several Republicans, tied with others, and only trails others slightly.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


[ Parent ]
Thanks
I see that Bright has a 2009 and lifetime score of 72, while Castle has a 2009 score of 56 and 52.49 lifetime. Bright's 2009 score is actually tied with Mario Diaz-Balart, whose lifetime score is 75.38, and Ros-Lehtinen, whose lifetime score is 73.38. Lincoln Diaz-Balart had a score of 71 in 2009 and has a lifetime score of 72.

So without looking past Florida, I guess what you've helped establish is that Bright is essentially a moderate Republican in Democrat's clothes. And what's interesting about that is that it strongly suggests that someone with his right-of-center (for the U.S.) political opinions has a relatively easier time winning a general election in his district as a Democrat than trying to win a Republican primary against extremists.

The other thing this exercise shows is that, at least according to the criteria of the American Conservative Union, Mike Castle is truly a centrist. Kirk's record is also interesting: 72 for 2009 but 57.5 lifetime.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
"Moderate Republican" is still pushing it.
It's like calling JoAnn Emerson a moderate because, once in a blue moon, she'll vote for something good (e.g. the minimum wage increase).  And that's often when the outcome is not in doubt.  The rest of the time, they're voting the same way as Bachmann, Schmidt, etc.

I've also found the "Liberal" ratings.  Generally the same thing, Bright gets beat by several Republicans (e.g. LiBiondo, the Floridian Cuban-Americans, Castle, Gerlach).  What I found disturbing was that he's tied with STEVE KING!  Bobby Bright is just as liberal as Steve King.

http://www.adaction.org/media/...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


[ Parent ]
Mollohan may be toast in the primary, but why would Oliverio necessarily lose a general election?
I can't imagine the Republicans putting in too much by way of resources to take down a guy who by their own admission is basically one of them already... especially when they have so many other juicy opportunities this cycle. Given the issues that have dominated this primary, they can arguably lay claim to Mollohan's scalp as is and move on.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
Isn't that
kind of like wondering why Republicans bother challenging Bobby Bright?

[ Parent ]
Who says we'll lose it in November?......
Oliverio flanked on the right, he won't even commit to Pelosi for Speaker.

So one can argue either we got a fighting chance this November with a guy with a (D) next to his name......or, more accurately, "we" already lost tonight, not in November!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Agreed
Mollohan is getting slaughtered, he may not even break 40%.

[ Parent ]
Why? Is it because of the ethics issues?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Appalachia is home base for anti-Obama/anti-Democratic sentiment
Remember, on the national swing maps from 2008, the region was a bright red streak across the east coast. Tennessee, West Virginia, and the bordering parts of Virginia, Ohio, and Indiana are swinging hard to the Republicans this cycle.

[ Parent ]
But this was the Democratic primary
Does WV have open primaries?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Yes, but it hardly matters
The majority of the state's voters are registered Democrats:

http://www.sos.wv.gov/election...


[ Parent ]
i care about having an ethical congress even more than i care about a liberal one
and so although i agree with mollohan more than oliverio on issues, i'm glad he lost, even if we then lose the seat in november

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

[ Parent ]
Mollohan was cleared of those ethics charges
Of course, that does sound like the "when did you stop beating your wife, Congressman?" question.

[ Parent ]
I care about having a health care bill that passed....
This seat is lost for good.  (at least until the next political realignment)

[ Parent ]
Yup, it's amazing in hindsight we held WV for so long in Presidentials......
Looking at WV culturally, it's amazing to me in hindsight we didn't lose the state for good starting in 1980.  Of course we lost it in the 1984 landslide, but got it back with Dukakis.  I think Clinton would have won it in a 2-way both times simply because he played the "Southern roots" identity card barely well enough with states like WV, but Gore didn't really fit that mold anymore by 2000, and that was that.

Now the natural realignment of the cultural South continues, with our slowly losing the federal offices in WV.  And this is NOT a state that will have any meaningful immigrant population growth to change its demographics, so I think it might be gone for a loooooong time, perhaps the rest of my life (and I'm 42).

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
WV is likely to continue losing population, though
Are they likely to be in line to lose a Congressional seat after the census results are tabulated?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
No
Not according to projections.  

[ Parent ]
Correct this time, but it's got to happen eventually, probably after 2020......
What's in WV to keep it from falling behind over time?  No immigrants, no industry to attract domestic in-migration, and no uncommonly high birth rates.

Indeed, I'm surprised the state isn't losing a seat this time.  I suppose the way the math works out, the fewer seats you have in the first place, the more slowly you bleed seats.  But my home state Iowa is losing a seat and will be down half(!), from 8 seats in the 70s to 4 in the 2010s, during my lifetime, and Iowa has 3 million people now compared to 1.8 million in WV.

I have to think WV loses a seat after the next census, and even this decade will have among the lowest-populated districts of any multi-district state.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
WV-03
Spike Maynard, the former judge who was in the back pocket of Massey Coal CEO, Chairman and President Don Blakenship is ahead by 4 points (32-28-28)

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Some Bio on Maynard
In November 2007, Justice Maynard voted in a 3-2 majority to reverse a $76 Million dollar judgment against Massey Energy Company. The $76 Million dollar judgment ($55 million plus interest) had been awarded by a Boone County, West Virginia, jury to Harmon Mining Corp., a West Virginia coal operation owned by Hugh Caperton. After the Supreme Court reversed the judgment, Hugh Caperton's attorneys learned that Justice Maynard had vacationed in the French Rivera with Massey CEO, Chairman and President Don Blakenship while the case was pending before the court.[1]  Bruce Stanley, a Pittsburgh lawyer representing Caperton, said "It is beyond the realm of human comprehension that any judge could claim any semblance of impartiality when, before casting the deciding vote in a $76 million case, he accompanies the CEO  of the litigant [Blankenship] on a luxurious trip to the French Riviera."


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Maynard
He was a former Democrat who subsequently switched to the Republican Party after being defeated in a primary following the Massey scandal. I think Maynard is our best bet as the Republican opponent in coal country.  

[ Parent ]
I just want to say
That Gilmer County, home of my ancestral roots, is coming in
strong for Mollohan.  

GA-09: Lee Hawkins 26 votes ahead of Steve Tarvin (for 2nd place)
Judging by what's left, I think Hawkins will secure a spot in the runoff.

Hawkings (R) joins Graves (R) in GA-9 runoff
Freeman gets just 6%.

I can't believe how badly Freeman did.
You'd think he'd at least get 20%.  He was the only Democrat running there.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
wv-01 General Election
Ok seems like Oliverio is gonna take this... and he's obviously to the right.  However, what does this do for our general election prospects.  Truth is i was never comfortable with Mollohan, he had all these ethics issues that where going to burn us in Nov.

I dont know much about West Virgina politics... but don't we stand a chance of holding this seat with a less ethically-tainted Oliverio?


I don't live there, but I'd say "Yes."
Oliverio can unite the Dem and some of the GOP vote since he's somewhat right of center and has a D next to his name.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I doubt it....
Mollohan's ability to pork up the district kept him there when they were trending to the right.  Now it's a straight D v. R race.  I believe that we will lose this race and not recapture the district until the next major political realignment.

[ Parent ]
Disagree, I think it could be addition by subtraction here......
Oliverio so openly flanks Mollohan from the right that that could trump all else this November in this particular seat.

House races are weird, there are always local anomalies even in wave years.  This easily could be one such anomaly, with a Democrat who openly disses Pelosi.

Remember when we got creamed once in the 90s in Texas in all the state-level races, we got one "Democrat" elected, Martha Whitehead, an openly conservative Democrat who actually campaigned on abolishing the very office, state Treasurer, she ran for.  It was a right-wing, small-government, Jim DeMint-would-love-it move that carried the "Democrat" to victory.

I wouldn't be surprised if Oliverio wins similarly, promising to be a less insane and incorruptible version of Jim Traficant.

Of course we won't celebrate such a "victory," it will feel like an intraparty Republican squabble that the fake "Democrat" won.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
FWIW....
... there are a lot more votes cast tonight in the Democratic primary than in the republican one. Is the Primary open or closed?

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Semi-open
But then again, take a look at the party registration numbers within the state and you'll understand why that is.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
NE-02: Lee Terry only getting 65% of the vote
Considering his challenger only raised $25k or so, that's not very inspiring.

people are pissed all around


[ Parent ]
Not looking good for Mollohan at all
If Oliverio wins in November, it seems that he would be a highly likely candidate for a party change, especially if Republicans have a majority or are close to it. Essentially, Mollohan's ethics have really cost us here, as I do not think it was policies that made the difference. Perhaps it would have been wise to run a moderate and ethical, as opposed to Oliverio, primary candidate against Mollohan. And unfortunately the district is quite conservative, which could present challenges for retaking the seat in 2012.  

Any chance of Oliverio getting elected statewide?
Thatd be a scary thought for Dems.  

[ Parent ]
Well He Tried It Before
And was crushed. Though if he were to run as a congressman, maybe.

[ Parent ]
In God's hands says Oliverio
"We start every campaign by putting it in God's hands," he said. "And we know that his will shall be done. And if it is his will for us to win, we will win. And if not, he has a higher and better purpose for me somewhere else."

http://timeswv.com/local/x9934...

I definitely see it as highly unlikely that Oliverio will remain in the Democratic Party, even if he wins in November. And if he does remain in our party, he will certainly be a Bobby Bright.


check out
the number of D vs. R voting in WV-3

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

Check out his website!!
http://www.mikeoliverio.com/is...

Debt clock and all!!!

While your there check out his education page.  Almost compete state and local control of education, why West Virgina is the academic champion of the Western World!!


seems to be an overall anti-incumbent protest vote...
We saw this even in IN and NC.  Now even those safe in the primaries like Nick Rahall and Lee Terry lose at least 1/3 of the vote.

Politico
just called it for Oliverio.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

Glad we didn't do predictions this time
I would have been pretty wrong.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Maybe it will work our way next week!
On to Sestak!!!

[ Parent ]
Oliverio vs. McKinley
Looks like another open red seat for the DEMS to defend.  With no other major races for WV DEMS to come out for Oliverio better hope he can turn out the vote. A GOP vs a DINO in a low turnout election...

AP also calls it for Oliverio
WV Democrats are a different breed.

Mollohan's ethic problems, his vote for HCR and his initial support for Cap & Trade and anti-incumbancy mood doomed Mollohan.


I have no love lost for Mollohan but...
Can just see the drumbeat and narrative...incumbents in trouble = DEMS in trouble.  Better win Murtha's seat since Abercrombie's is all but gone.  Will any wobblely DEMS in states with upcoming filing deadlines opt out?  

We'll lose both
But we'll win back the Hawaii one in November.  

[ Parent ]
I hope we can win HI-01 now

and have not the same fight in the primaries for November.

I think this is the alone way for keep this seat for the next cycle.


[ Parent ]
Well...
we are in trouble. I mean, realistically, it looks like a pretty terrible year, although there does seem to be some differentiation from the national trend in some states (OH, PA, NC breaking our way). We just have to start changing our internal narrative from an inevitable slide on the long arc of justice (whee!) to an interminable fight against an undying adversary. Or some shit.
Anyway, your point is it could lead to retirements. True. And Ugh. Watching these retirements just makes me sick. Is it really so much better to give up than go down fighting? Is life that much better with one more campaign to prepare for private life? Don't any of these cats actually believe in the good of the parties whose positions they've been mouthing all these years?

[ Parent ]
er, not quite

It's generally conservative Democrats and (too-)moderate Republicans that are biting the dust this election cycle.

Yeah, I'm not exactly breaking out in tears either.  Mollohan is 67 according to Wikipedia, maybe it's not the worst way to retire.


[ Parent ]
I agree that GOP incumbents have more to fear in primaries
than we do. So Mollohan's loss shouldn't really be taken evidence of Dems in trouble. But "Dems in trouble" is not really an unfair narrative. Nor should we be afraid to incorporate it into our pitch toward partisan activism.

Or whatever.


[ Parent ]
Can Oliverio win Mollohan's Voters in November?
With Oliverio being considerably to the right of Mollohan, what do Mollohan's supporters do in November?  I wonder what percent of them will sit out the House race in November because they don't want to choose between a true Republican and a Republican-Lite.

Exactly
And keep in mind that Mollohan had a lot of ties across a 28 year career in Congress. The entirity of Oliverio's otherwise substance-free campaign was tearing down Mollohan. Lots of Mollohan fans will probably sit on their hands in November - of vote for McKinley out of spite.

[ Parent ]
Politico's Kraushaar Tweets DCCC Ignoring Oliverio
http://www.politico.com/2010/
Could the DCCC treat the race as a lost cause?

[ Parent ]
Yeah...
... because the DCCC would really make that decision within a couple of hours of Oliverio claiming the nomination... especially after having (NOT) spent so much money on Mollohan in the primary... and knowing full well that the Republicans would rather be facing off against the guy who just got bumped from the Democratic ticket...

Seriously, the substance of that Tweet sounds highly dubious to me. And even if accurate, such moves are almost inevitably re-assessed later on.

Male, 23, DC-At Large


[ Parent ]
Am
I the only one who thinks Oliverio will actually do better than Mollohan in the general? Don't get me wrong, I'm pissed he won, because he is soooo far to the right. However he is scandal free and a good old school dem to boot and the district has many old school dems who would be more likely to vote for him rather than more liberal Mollohan. Also I would say he will do very well with conservative leaning independents. He may even get some Republican support as well.  I don't know why anyone would write this race off, I would put it at tossup tilts D for now. How does an Oliverio victory affect SSP's rating?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

I'd move it to Tossup
since it's now an open seat. I'm actually shifting pretty much all the Appalachian seats at least one notch towards the Republicans, because it's looking pretty bad for the Dems this year.

[ Parent ]
I still give to this a Leans Democratic

I'm still socked cause of see one like Oliverio win, but if he defeat an incumbent in the primary that mean he is not a weak candidate, and that mean the incumbent is so unpopular.

I will wait until the next fundraising report for change to other group. If the republican lead the fundraising after the second quarter I will change to Toss-Up, and if the republican lead in future polls, too.


[ Parent ]
Chris Cillizza says republicans..
..agree with you

http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

On the Republican side, former state Del. David McKinley  won his party's nomination. Republicans, however, had made clear they preferred to run against Mollohan and must now re-orient their strategy.


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Didn't the DCCC dump some money in here for Mollohan?
Between that and the wasted Hawaii monies how much has been wasted? I know the Dems are flush but geez...

All I could find was this
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

Which doesn't sound like much of an expenditure, just some personnel support.


[ Parent ]
I think Maynard has won in WV-03
The only Gearhart stronghold left is 9 precincts in Mercer, and he's down by over 400 votes. Unless the Lincoln County people come in from their jenga break to discover Gearhart won in a landslide.

according to this source, he has

http://www.wvmetronews.com/ele...

614 of 614 precincts

Maynard  4,987  30%
Gearheart 4,543  27%
Lucas    4,187  25%
Bias     2,852  17%

margin of 444 votes


[ Parent ]
Clinton will campaign for Critz on Sunday
That's certainly good news for Democrats. I remember Clinton helping Niki Tsongas in Massachusetts win her seat a few years back, which seemed to give her a final boost in an underwhelming campaign. My guess would be that Clinton is equally well liked in this district, and his endorsement could make some difference.

Some news on that, Critz leads by 6!
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I wasn't aware Burns was facing a priamry for the general.
That changes the whole equation around. Burns has to find an impossible middle ground now between looking like a sane republican that old school democrats can vote for or a crazy teabagger that only republicans would vote for.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

[ Parent ]
Kind of ironic that hes so popular in that type of area
Given his free-trade policies in the 90s.  

[ Parent ]
Esch
Why/When did he quit the party?

29/D/Male/NY-01

I had the same question.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
WV as the next Arkansas
Just as Dems controlled Arkansas for generations, and many of their top pols historically are Dems, Arkansas has been moving away from the Democratic party in recent years even though they dominate at the state level.  There is only so long a state will vote Hard right in presidential elections and then for Dems in state elections.  

With the Lincoln seat going to the Repubs almost assuredly, its the beginning of the end for Dems in Arkansas.  It won't be overnight, but Arkansas will probably see 2 Repub Senators once Pryor resigns.  We're probably not far from Arkansas having a Repub governor too.  And from there some of the in-state mvoes will begin in their state houses with party switching.

I think WV will follow this trend almost identically, but we'll see.  WV tried the Repub governor a few times (Underwood twice even) but I think the evolution is definitely underway in WV to be the next Arkansas.

Its why Dems need to make Maine the next Massachusetts (prior to Brown winning Massachusetts lol).


I don't know if that's happening YET, but it I agree it will.
Split-ticket voting will only last so long.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
The Republicans Probably Need Another Governor First
Arkansas is kind of different since there's a well-established Republican base down there. I think their party apparatus is stronger (it's virtually non-existent in WV), they are grouped in ways that give them a geographic base (most obviously that congressional district in the NW), and they've been winning this or that statewide race for 20 years. The latter is something Republicans in WV haven't been able to do unless you are talking about Capito, her dad, or a retread from the 1950s (the late Gov. Underwood). Demographically the Republicans have a lot of room to grow in WV, especially in the Northern half of the state, but organizationally they still need a lot of work - work that a Gov. Capito might get underway in 2013.

[ Parent ]
I sure hope Pryor doesn't resign
anytime soon!

But you're right.  Conservative Democrats have held on in various parts of the South (and other regions) so long (1) the possibility of group racial violence has remained real locally, and (2) these regions were truly far behind in economic development, to the point of collapsing economically absent lots of federal pork barrel spending or other subsidies to prop up the poor.

When these factors diminish it becomes affordable to vote in Republicans.  Having a Democratic-run federal government means that DoJ takes over dealing with the most racially inflammatory events and people, which means a lot of state level conservative Democrats become dispensable.  And as the local economy becomes less agrarian based and less industrial, the level of tolerable corruption and basis for spreading money around to keep them from fighting drops too.

I'm not entirely struck with grief at the fading away and elimination of conservative Democrats that is taking place.  Present day Republicans are not nice or amenable people, but their getting voted in says that some very old problems and miserable conditions have faded substantially.  Disagree with them as I do, they do force their constituencies to modernize economically and politically- in good part negatively and brutally, i.e. by corrupting the old ways completely, by looting resources only held weakly in the public trust, by cheating and abusing the gullible until they give up their disengagement and naivité, by exploiting every resentment and unsettled score until their targets have raged and vented themselves out.  It's morally horrible but expends almost all the reasons people cling to the past and resist even pragmatic changes in public life.

We're not going to make up for the federal weight and federal offices of Arkansas and West Virginia in e.g. Maine, unfortunately.  It's too small.  The places Democrats have to go are Nevada, Colorado, and Arizona.  And Florida.  Maybe Missouri.  But mostly Arizona and Florida.


[ Parent ]
Of course, Arkansas has already had a recent Republican Governor
Mike Huckabee.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About the Site

SSP Resources

Blogroll

Powered by: SoapBlox