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MN-Sen: Franken Slips in New SUSA Poll

by: James L.

Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 7:54 PM EDT


SurveyUSA (9/30-10/1, likely voters, 9/10-11 in parens):

Al Franken (DFL): 33 (40)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 43 (41)
Dean Barkley (IP): 19 (14)
(MoE: ±3.7%)

I like SurveyUSA a lot, but their work in Minnesota has been all over the map, often with some weird results for younger voters. This poll is no different; voters aged 18-34 support Coleman by a margin of 44-33-13, that's down from 48-33-14 for Franken earlier in September. Franken isn't having an easy time in this race, yes, but I highly doubt that the kids love Coleman that much.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

UPDATE: Major warning bell -- SUSA just released their Presidential numbers for Minnesota (conducted as part of the same poll as the Senate numbers), and McCain is leading by 47-46. That's starkly different from the latest CNN/Time poll showing Obama up by 54-43. I'm pretty suspicious of this poll altogether.

(Hat-tip to Minnesota Mike for flagging this one.)
James L. :: MN-Sen: Franken Slips in New SUSA Poll
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MN-Sen: Franken Slips in New SUSA Poll | 41 comments
I don't buy it
SurveyUSA is messing up it's youth vote big time. There is no way Franken loses the youth vote. It will be double digits in the youth vote at the very least.

Does anyone have crosstabs?

Follow the link -- it's right at the top of the article
[ Parent ]
Uhhh... ya right
Youth vote - Coleman by 11

Complete BS.  The youth breakdown is off by a mile.  I suspect the Dems have better than a 7 point edge in likely voters as well.  SUSA has not exactly been spot on in polling MN this cycle.

While everyone's focusing on the youth number...
nobody's a bit puzzled that Barkley is getting a whopping 19%?
He'll take a good-sized share
Dunno if it'll be quite that high, but I would not be shocked to see him get into double-digits on election day.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
Why is that? I'd expect Ventura to be getting those kinds of numbers, but not this Dean Barkley. What's he been doing all this time?
[ Parent ]
Nasty nasty race
Coleman and Franken have been hammering each other with nasty adds for months. Barkley is getting the none of the above vote.

Barkley is not an unknown in Minnesota. He ran for Senate twice in the 90's (getting enough votes to qualify the Independence Party for major party status). He managed Ventura's campaign, served in his administration and was appointed to fill out the last couple of months of Wellstone's term. If he had money (he has none) I honestly think he would have an outside shot to win. I stick with my prediction that he will get 20% + of the vote.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
lol
Dean "Kryzan" Barkley?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Is youth vote legit?
This is not the first poll where the youth vote has broke for Coleman... I think I remember at least two others.  It may be hard to believe, but I find it harder to believe that they're all outliers.
I think it's only SUSA
that has been releasing polls that show young people all hot and bothered for Coleman.
They're messing something up. Big time.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
I've always been pessimistic here
Coleman is just too savy and Franken too unacceptable for too many independents and moderates. Why coudln't we get a real, respectable politician? Sigh.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
I agree with you. Franken is going to have a very hard time.
Now, I'm not saying he's going to lose but I'm also very pessimistic about this one.
[ Parent ]
because Franken
scared them all off...  He jumped into the race in February for a reason.  I bet a big enough name could have beaten him.
[ Parent ]
Let's work Georgia and leave this race alone
much better candidate in Georgia and a lot worse incumbent to take out.

I just don't get the Franken love.

Leave this race alone?
You got to be kiddin me. We have a better chance to win MN then Jim Martin does of defeating Saxby Chambliss. Leave this race alone? How bout we don't and continue Al Franken.
[ Parent ]
Yeah!
I agree that Franken wasn't an ideal candidate choice, but he's a darn fine one we've got now, and now's not the time to give up on him!

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
crosstabs outtawhack
mccain wins 18-49 and loses 50+?  makes no sense, and it's of base of every other minnesota poll.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
Yeah
SUSA has consistently showed a tossup Presidential race in MN, even when other pollsters have given Obama a bigger lead. We won't find out until election day, but I think they're fucking up their Minnesota polls.
[ Parent ]
The alternative possibility
is fairly disturbing.

Frankly, I think they're probably wrong.  

[ Parent ]
Doesn't MN have same-day registration?
That should be a boon for us there. Frankly, I don't see how a Kerry state could be trending away from Obama right now. From what I can see, McCain is bleeding badly and on defense. Can anyone think of a good reason why Obama would pull ahead big in Michigan and Pennsylvania, but start dropping in Minnesota?
[ Parent ]
The only thing I can think of
is that maybe Palin plays well there.  
[ Parent ]
What --
-- because they're some of the few Americans that actually like hockey?
[ Parent ]
And that accent. . .

[ Parent ]
the accent
is really Minnesotan sounding.  I could see her playing somewhat well here.  But not well enough for McCain to be leading.
[ Parent ]
That's exactly what I thought
Palin's accent sounds like she's from MN or WI, not Alaska.  Really weird.  The other AK politicians I've heard don't sound much like that.
[ Parent ]
Fuck you James
That's why I got to say about your post. Sorry for the harsh language but MN isn't the only place that likes the sport.
[ Parent ]
That sort of language
Is completely uncalled for. Not only does it have no place on the Swing State Project, but it's more than a little bit absurd a) in response to an off-hand light-hearted remark and b) on the topic of who likes hockey (?!?).

I ask that you please apologize and refrain from this sort of personal attack in the future.

[ Parent ]
Sorry about the language David
I know you run a clean program here and I won't use that type of language again. But what can I say the guy angered me.

I just want to say that I think this poll is BS. I cannot believe for a second Coleman is up by 10. I can believe that Barkley is polling double digits though. With all the mud slinging going on, Barkley is looking to be a alternative to some MN voters everyday.

[ Parent ]
The irony here is
I'm a huge, life-long hockey fan.
[ Parent ]
James brought hockey back!


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
I hate to bring it up...
... but Race may be a factor. Like it or not there are white voters in every state who will not vote for a black man (sadly even in Minnesota). Nationwide and in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania the racist vote is likely offset by increased enthusiasim in the minority community. Minnesota simply does not have as many minorities as most states.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Obama was doing fine
a month, two months, three months ago...what happened? Did Minnesota just discover he's black.

Bull, Rasmussen and CNN have Obama up 5-10 points, I'm tending to believe them.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
I doubt it
If that were true, he'd be having trouble in Iowa, an equally white state, but he's not.

I think Tyler and the others are right: this poll is not taking into account MN's election-day voter registration. That's how Jesse Ventura won.

[ Parent ]
Not only that
but SUSA has CONSISTENTLY been way off on the youth voter number.  This isn't an isolated case or an isolated state.  I know they're a respected pollster and Nate Silver rates them very high, but they've got some serious problems.  I'm assuming its related to their using robodials.  Truthfully, I've no idea.  But I'm convinced its a problem with them and not that young people plan on voting Republican down-ticket everywhere.
[ Parent ]
Do they have problems in other states?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
SUSA Likely Voter Screen
Something to remember about SUSA Minnesota polls.

As part of their likely voter screen SUSA uses only registered voters. Since Minnesota has same day registration most first time voters will not register until election day. Unless they are unusually  politicaly active many voters under 22 are being screened out.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

at my college
we've hardly bothered registering anyone.  The school sends both polling places a list of people who live on campus, show an id, register there on the spot and you're done.  We've focused more on just identifying Obama supporters.

Al Franken will be coming back to my school next Wednesday.  I'll report back on how he does on the stump.

[ Parent ]
I keep thinking
of SUSA's Maryland Senate polls in 2006 which had Steele and Cardin tied a few days before the election.

Cardin won by like 10.

Minnesota is only remotely in play.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

McCain wins Minnesota when Obama wins Kentucky.
This whole poll is bunk. I could maybe see Coleman doing better than Franken with young voters just because Franken sucks as a candidate. Even that being said, it's still hard to swallow. But Obama losing them to McCain? LOLZ
Looking at Pollster
It seems Survey USA have a history of showing the presidential race closer in MN than anyone else. Having said that I think the Obama campaign made a mistake in assuming the state was safe and not putting up at least some ads, especially when the GOP convention was in the Twin Cities.
Demographics are really skewed
Look on page 2 of the crosstabs -- conservatives outnumber liberals 2:1. In Minnesota? I don't think so. They've way over-sampled Republicans and Republican leaning independents -- the crosstabs claim 30% are Republicans, yet 31% are conservatives.

Don't know what's going on with SUSA's likely voter screen, but I'm not buying it at all.  

MN-Sen: Franken Slips in New SUSA Poll | 41 comments

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