Ward Research for the Honolulu Advertiser (4/23-28, likely voters):
Charles Djou (R): 36
Ed Case (D): 28
Colleen Hanabusa (D): 22
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±5.2%)
To recap, this is the third poll we’ve seen of this race over the past month. A “leaked” DCCC internal pegged the race at 32 Djou, 32 Case, 27 Hanabusa, while an R2K poll from two weeks ago have Djou a 32-29 lead over Case, with Hanabusa close behind at 28%.
Since then, the DCCC has poured in nearly $250K on media buys against Djou, but we’ve seen no evidence of their efforts yielding any positive results for Team Blue. Hanabusa herself has opened fire on Case’s right-wing record in a new ad that began airing this weekend. If there’s ever been a perfect storm for a Republican to win this seat in freak circumstances with a bare plurality of the vote, this is it.
(H/T: Hotline On Call)
Terrible numbers. The media buys have yielded nothing because the ads were terrible. And why on earth is Hanabusa attacking Case when Djou leads? They can both join Brunner, Coakley, Deeds and Corzine on the naughty step IMO. Hell, Abercrombie should join them for creating this mess. Incompentence of the highest order. Why is it when the other side gets momentum the party in power tends to exacerbate their dire situation?
with this is that Djou’s support is solid while Hanabusa and Case are splitting the Dem base.
… they win it back in November. No matter how much the Republicans will crow about a win nobody with half a brain will see this as anything other than a fluke.
Boehner proclaiming, “Even the people in Obama’s home seat reject his and Pelosi’s big spending and big government. Djou’s victory is a victory for all freedom-loving Hawaiians and Americans.”
That’s a pretty damning narrative setter if you ask me. Doesn’t matter what percentage that Djou gets because the victory gives the GOP big momentum. I think Hanabusa better drop out and challenge Case in the primary later on–and believe me I am no Case fan. We just need to keep the seat.
If you were a Democrat in Hawaii with a mail in ballot in hand (they are probably going out very soon seeing as the election is on the 22nd), what do you do?
Would it be better to wait until the last week to see where the polls/momentum go?
The media will have a field day if this seat is lost, even if it’s due to electoral flaws.
it’s too late for Case or Hanabusa to drop out correct?
There’s a strong possibility that the Dems will lose PA-12 too, since Burns leads Critz outside the MOE in most polls.
The two elections probably don’t matter much over the long run, since Djou can be defeated in a neutral year with a half-decent candidate and Burns will probably be redistricted out of a seat in 2012. But man, May is going to be brutal for House Democrats’ momentum and morale heading into November.
two more frustrating stories in a row on SSP. We can’t compete with this environment AND a circular firing squad. But we have that in HI and OH.
And I wouldn’t count Djou out in November. Dems are at 50% COMBINED here. Hardly unbeatable.
two more frustrating stories in a row on SSP. We can’t compete with this environment AND a circular firing squad. But we have that in HI and OH.
And I wouldn’t count Djou out in November. Dems are at 50% COMBINED here. Hardly unbeatable.
Remember Bush got close to 47 percent in this district in 2004. Djou in a good environment could easily come close to that number. If he gets anything over 40 in this special election, the Democrats will lose it.
I can’t see any way of us winning this or Murtha’s seat sadly and I fear it will lead to a landslide of epic proportions in November. I really hope we hold onto both seats, but the numbers just aren’t there. It’s really sad that we have to hope for the Progressive to pull out to save the seat and the optics.
At the least, we need to turn around and win this seat back in Nov. If anything the DCCC should make Case promise not to run again in return for their support. Let’s hope the fallout after this election doesn’t last too long.
that special results impact the following general election to any significant degree? There’s a big causality problem: a special election’s results may simply reflect the climate, rather than influence it.
I think it’s rather unlikely that it’ll change many voter preferences. What sort of probable Democratic voters don’t turn up because they remembered the Republicans winning some special elections in May? They might be convinced a Republican landslide is coming, but shouldn’t they want to vote to help blunt it?
More likely is that it affects candidate selection and campaign strategies. Perhaps Brown’s victory influenced some Democratic retirements, for instance, because they saw it as a bellwether. The problem with this theory, though, is that campaign strategists are (or should be) highly informed. There are myriad opinion polls that they could look to that would almost certainly give a better indication of their candidate’s chances then a random special election. So, it really shouldn’t matter much.
A+ Title!
I’ve heard many people trying to make the NJ and VA Gov. races a symbol of things to come. The same with the MA-Sen race. To me, these races show that a good candidate/good campaigner will beat a mediocre candidate/campaigner most of the time.
The HI-01 race is a bit different. Since this is a jungle primary, the Dems have effectively split their vote between two candidates. I think Djou will win this race.
PA-12 is another race that will be a uphill battle for us. This district was drifting away from Team Blue, so really, losing this seat is more of a sign of the district’s leaning than anything else.
had no business running in the first place. He’s a DINO who tried to take out a sitting progressive senator. His self-centeredness continues in this race. Why the DCCC would consider backing him over a real Democrat is beyond me.
SSP has posted before that, linking to a Congressional Quarterly piece on this, polling Hawaii is uniquely difficult in the first place.
Polling a special election is hard for its own reasons.
Polling a special election with a 3-way is exceptionally hard, as the NY-23 special won by Bill Owens proved last year.
And further complicating polling in this particular special election is that all registered voters automatically receive mailed ballots. I’m guessing (but admittedly don’t know for a fact) they also provide envelopes that say “postage paid by addressee,” just like the census or most business reply mail, so you don’t even need to find a stamp to send it back.
As a frame of reference specifically for the Honolulu Advertiser which commissioned this poll, the same publication commissioned a poll in Prez 2004 showing Bush beating Kerry, 43.3-42.6, in mid-October. Kerry won the state 54-45.
I think it’s a very big mistake to take this poll to the bank and conclude Djou is likely to win. I think all we can legitimately take away from this poll is yet one more data point to confirm it’s a close 3-way that Djou could win only because the Democratic vote is split. Nothing more than that is supported.