Research 2000 for Daily Kos (4/11-14, likely voters, no trendlines):
Charles Djou (R): 32
Ed Case (D): 29
Colleen Hanabusa (D): 28
Other: 4
Undecided: 7
(MoE: ±5%)
Thanks to Hawaii's weird special election configuration where all parties are piled into one pool together, Republican Charles Djou seems to be in position to win by virtue of getting a small plurality in a three-way race rather than the usual majority. R2K's poll closely tracks the leaked DCCC poll of the race (where it was 32 Djou, 32 Case, 27 Hanabusa), although it appears that the difficulties of polling in Hawaii hamstrung R2K, who say they had trouble getting a representative sample and had to settle for a higher margin of error than usual.
The race in HI-01 is starting to remind me of one of those Quentin Tarantino prisoner's-dilemma standoffs where you have three guys standing in a triangle, all pointing guns at each other's heads. In a perfect world, one Dem would back down, because the national party can't afford the symbolism of a loss here (even though it's a seat that they'd be likely to recover in November in a normal head-to-head race -- simply because the media would be incapable of explaining the nuances of the loss beyond "OMG! Dems in disarray lose Barack Obama's home district!").
But neither Case nor Hanabusa is likely to get out of the special, because doing so would give the other the benefit of incumbency going into the regularly-scheduled September primary, when presumably they would want to face off against each other. Hanabusa, probably because of her role in the state legislature, has lower approvals than Case (37/31, vs. Case's 47/25, which may explain why the DCCC wants her to be the one who walks the plank), but with her backing by the state's unions and political machine, she probably feels she has little reason to get out... and maybe with her backers' GOTV operations, she still has a good shot in a low-turnout affair.
UPDATE: Nice catch from Reid Wilson, illuminating what Markos was alluding to his in his own writeup: the sample's racial composition is way off, as the sample is 33% white and 38% Asian, despite the district actually being 53% Asian and 19% white.
ANOTHER UPDATE: Fundraising numbers from all three are available now. Despite Case's moneybags reputation, he's being outpaced by both Djou and Hanabusa. Djou has the most cash on hand ($492K, compared with $329K for Hanabusa and $214K for Case), while Hanabusa has raised the most over the course of the cycle, but also spent the most (she's raised $712K, compared with $692K for Djou and $349K for Case). |
