SSP Daily Digest: 4/15 (Afternoon Edition)

CA-Sen: Russian law enforcement officers raided Hewlett-Packard’s Moscow offices today, as part of an investigation into whether HP paid millions in bribes to the Russian government to win a large contract. Why are we leading with this story today? Guess who was CEO of HP in 2003, when the contract was executed? That’s right… Carly Fiorina.

CO-Sen: Ken Buck, the right-wing Weld County DA who’s become a fave of the teabagger set (to the extent that establishment GOPer Jane Norton isn’t even looking to compete at the activist-dominated state assembly), just received the endorsement of hard-right starmaker Jim DeMint. (Buck’s last quarter wasn’t that impressive, though: $219K raised, $417K CoH.)

CT-Sen: Here’s an indication of the savvy investment skills that got Linda McMahon to the top. She revealed that she self-financed another $8 million this quarter, bringing her total self-funding all cycle to $14 million. (She also raised $37K from others.) What was the return on her gigantic investment? Now she’s down a mere 25-or-so points to a guy who speaks in 10-minute-long run-on sentences. Meanwhile, ex-Rep. Rob Simmons, who has to rely on the kindness of strangers instead, has seen his fundraising get drier in a post-Chris Dodd environment; he raised only $550K last quarter.

IN-Sen: Here’s a big fat fundraising fail, although it may explain why he didn’t see any shame in missing the reporting deadline. Republican ex-Sen. Dan Coats’ comeback bid managed to pull in a whopping $379K last quarter. (He has $331K CoH.)

MO-Sen: Roy Blunt is doubling down on the stingy: he reiterated his desire to repeal HCR, even the part about making sure that people with preexisting conditions are able to get coverage. He also lost another skirmish in the perception battle today, as Robin Carnahan narrowly outraised him for the first quarter, $1.5 million to $1.3 million.

NH-Sen, NH-01: In the New Hampshire Senate race, Kelly Ayotte and Paul Hodes are pretty closely matched fundraising-wise: she raised $671K in Q1 with $1.3 million CoH, while he raised $665K with $1.7 million CoH. Ayotte’s GOP primary opponent, William Binnie, raised $400K from donors even though he’s mostly focused on self-funding; he’s sitting on $1.7 million CoH, despite having been advertising constantly. In the 1st, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, never much of a fundraiser, had a so-so quarter; she raised $168K and sits on $485K.

NV-Sen: Although she’s been dwindling in the polls, don’t quite count out former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle yet. The Tea Party Express endorsed the one-time Club for Growth favorite in the GOP Senate primary.

PA-Sen: Arlen Specter continues to be the cash king in the Pennsylvania Senate race, now sitting on a $9 million warchest, but he was substantially outraised by Pat Toomey in the last quarter. Specter raised $1.1 million in the first quarter, half of Toomey’s haul.

GA-Gov, GA-Sen: It’s strange we’ve been dropping the ball on mentioning this poll for almost a week now, as it’s good news for Democrats. Research 2000 polled the general election in the Georgia gubernatorial race, and found ex-Gov. Roy Barnes narrowly ahead in all three configurations. He leads expected GOP nominee Insurance Comm. John Oxendine, 45-42, ex-Rep. Nathan Deal 44-42, and ex-SoS Karen Handel 44-43. AG Thurbert Baker, if he somehow gets the Dem nod, loses 48-36 to Oxendine, 48-35 to Deal, and 49-35 to Handel. Over in the Senate race, GOP incumbent Johnny Isakson looks pretty safe: he beats Baker 50-34 and Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond 53-26 (not that either one is planning to run).

ME-Gov: Good news for Dems turned into bad over the course of a few days; social conservative Michael Heath (former head of the Maine Family Policy Council) launched an independent bid earlier this week (which would only serve to hurt the GOP), then did an about face and pulled the plug on it today. There’s already one prominent indie candidate in the race, environmental lawyer Eliot Cutler, who seems poised to draw more from Dems than the GOP.

OR-Gov: Here’s a camera-ready moment from last night’s debate between Democratic party candidates John Kitzhaber and Bill Bradbury at the University of Oregon. In response to calls of “is there a doctor in the house?” when an elderly audience member started having a seizure, Kitzhaber (a former emergency room doctor) hopped down from the podium, stabilized him, and once an ambulance had arrived, resumed debating.

CA-03: Ami Bera continues to do well on the fundraising front; he raised $380K in the first quarter, and is sitting on $977K CoH as he prepares for a tough challenge to Republican Rep. Dan Lungren.

DE-AL: We’re going to have a big-dollar race in the at-large seat in Delaware, which just had the entry of two different Republicans with the capacity to self-finance large sums. Democratic ex-LG John Carney is working hard to stay in the same ballpark; he raised $255K in the first quarter and sits on $675K.

FL-08: Could we still see The Devil vs. Daniel Webster? Rep. Alan Grayson repelled the socially conservative former state Senator many months ago, forcing the NRCC to scramble to find a lesser replacement (businessman Bruce O’Donoghue seems to be their preferred pick, although state Rep. Kurt Kelly is also in the race). But now people close to Webster say he’s giving some consideration to getting back in the race (apparently undaunted by Grayson’s huge Q1 haul). Insiders seem to think that’s unlikely, though, given the late date.

FL-19: Congratulations to our newest Democratic Congressperson, Rep. Ted Deutch. The winner of Tuesday’s special election was sworn in this afternoon.

NY-01: The battle of the rich guys is on, in the GOP primary in the 1st. Facing well-connected Randy Altschuler, Chris Cox (son of state chair Ed Cox, and grandson of Richard Nixon) whipped out his own large balance sheet. He raised $735K for the quarter, and has $624K CoH. (Cox loaned himself $500K.)

NY-20: Republican Chris Gibson seems to have finally locked down the GOP slot in the 20th, but he has a deep hole to dig his way out of, against Rep. Scott Murphy’s seven-digit warchest. Gibson raised $109K and has $92K CoH.

OH-13: Wealthy car dealer Tom Ganley is moving even more of his own money into his uphill race against Rep. Betty Sutton. He loaned himself another $2 million (although apparently his cupboard was bare before he did so, as now his CoH is also $2 million). Sutton, seeming caught off-guard by Ganley’s entry, raised only $135K and is sitting on $281K.

PA-06: Rep. Jim Gerlach raised $500K in his first quarter, after his belated decision to come back for his old job; he only has $335K CoH, though. Democratic opponent Doug Pike raised $225K but has $1.2 million CoH. (No word yet from his primary opponent, Manan Trivedi.)

PA-07: Republican ex-US Attorney Pat Meehan continues to have a fundraising edge over Democratic state Rep. Bryan Lentz in the open seat in the 7th; Meehan raised $340K and has $855K CoH, while Lentz raised $235K and has $610K CoH.

PA-08: Ex-Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick put up showy numbers a few days ago in his quest to get his seat back, but Rep. Patrick Murphy surpassed Fitzpatrick’s $510K. Murphy raised $586K and has $1.3 million CoH.

PA-11: Finally, in Pennsylvania, Rep. Paul Kanjorski had a decent quarter, raising $260K (less than Lou Barletta’s $300K, but Kanjo has a mammoth CoH advantage, sitting on $1.2 million. Kanjorski’s Democratic primary rival Corey O’Brien has quite the burn rate: he raised $115K this quarter, but has only $47K CoH.

Teabaggers: The Tea Party Express also issued a full target list today (no gun sights on their districts, though), and as befits their role as the corporate arm of the teabaggers, their goals aren’t that much different from those of the NRSC and NRCC. Top targets are (with the odd toss-in exception of Barney Frank) just the usual names considered most likely to lose, making it easy for them to claim they claimed some scalps come November: Harry Reid, Blanche Lincoln, Betsy Markey, Tom Perriello, and so on. They also list some heroes, and in the interest of bipartisan cover, they actually included a Democrat. In what’s not a surprise, it was ID-01’s Walt Minnick. (Wouldn’t it be ironic if their endorsement actually helped Minnick, likely to face a very close race this year, squeak by?) Also, on the teabagger front, Some Dude over at Salon looks at Tea Partier demographics and the roots of their resentments.

81 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 4/15 (Afternoon Edition)”

  1. given the weak field on both sides, maine’s history and independent streak and the anti-establishment mood, eliot could win.  it’s not impossible, especially in maine.

  2. The Democratic primary debate was held last night, I’m surprised that didn’t end up in the digest today. I was already an Elaine Marshall supporter, but I thought she did a good job and gave the best answers. Cal Cunningham seemed a bit too rehearsed in his responses and his arm movements while talking were kind of over the top. I think that Elaine won the debate honestly because her answers seemed more authentic and on topic and I still think she can win the primary while avoiding a runoff (+40%).

    News story: http://www.newsobserver.com/20

  3. Leading Democratic candidate Roxanne Conlin gave her Senate campaign $250,000 during the first quarter of 2010 and raised nearly $630,000 from other donors (she is not accepting PAC donations). She has about $1 million cash on hand.

    Five-term incumbent Chuck Grassley raised $613,577 in the first quarter and has about $5.3 million cash on hand.

    I am surprised that Conlin was able to out-raise the incumbent for the quarter even if you don’t count her own large contribution to the campaign.

    More discussion over in the recent diary section.

  4. I’m going to go out on a limb and say I think Karen Handel will be the Republican nominee.  Handel started very far down against Oxendine, but the Ox has been making gaffe after gaffe, starting with that ridiculous Web ad and just going from there.  Add to that Nathan Deal’s ethics woes, and I see Handel coming out on top.

    I do think Barnes will beat any of those three, though.

  5. They’ve just had their first televised election debate ever – and the reactions are starting to come in. One source – http://www.ukpollingreport.co….

    YouGov has Nick Clegg, LDP leader, winning

    Clegg    51%

    Cameron  29%

    Brown    19%

  6. Halperin is blasting that Ashjian is staying on the Tea Party ballot line in Nevada, but no picture of Ashjian, just a smiling Reid.

    Loves it.

    I love Reid’s take on this regarding his re-election prospects and the number of candidates: do the math.

  7. But that really looks stunningly bad to me for a former senator recruited by the national party.

  8. Louisiana Senate: Melancon raised $543K, with $2.26 million on hand.  Not too bad, but much less than Vitter, who earlier announced he raised more than $1 million, with $5 million on hand. http://www.nola.com/politics/i

    LA-2: Cao raised only $101K, spent more than raised.  After MA-Sen I’m not taking anything for granted, but it’s even harder than ever to see Cao reelected.  Not that it was ever likely.  

    http://mobile.twitter.com/stat

    LA-3: I wrote about this earlier: Democrat Ravi Sangisetty had a good quarter, raising $215K, with $375K on hand.  This one bears watching.  http://hotlineoncall.nationalj

  9. today.  I did the same thing last year.  My observations:

    (1) This one was much better attended.

    (2) The signs and messages were more issue-focused than last year.  Last year, I couldn’t have told you what the movement was about other than “Obama is a monkey/tyrant/Hitler.”  This year it was at least clear that their complaints were about spending and taxes (apparently disapproving of the lowest tax rates in 60 years).  The ad hominem messages were there, but not in the majority.

    (3) The level of vitriol seemed to be down and directed proportionally more towards Congress rather than Obama as compared to last year.  Not to say there wasn’t a lot of Obama hate.

    I am left with the clear impression that the movement is gaining steam and becoming more mainstream.  I don’t know how to deal with it, but I do know that the Democrats are not generally dealing with it effectively, at least if the rally I attended is any indication.  

  10. Don’t have time to go through all of them, I made it through Indiana:

    AL-02:

    Bobby Bright (D) – $176k raised, $658k on hand

    Martha Roby (R) – $127k raised, $223k on hand

    AL-05:

    Steve Raby (D) – $185k raised, $187k on hand

    Mo Brooks (R) – $41k raised, $214k on hand

    Parker Griffith (R) – $152k raised (he had to refund $94k!), $412k on hand

    AR-01:

    Tim Woolridge (D) – $240k raised, $181k on hand

    AR-02:

    David Boling (D) – $160k raised + $100k loans, $210k on hand

    Joyce Elliott (D) – $123k raised, $99k on hand

    Robbie Wills (D) – $327k raised, $221k on hand

    Tim Griffin (R) – $184k raised, $404k on hand

    AR-04:

    Mike Ross (D) – $233k raised, $1.12m on hand

    AZ-08:

    Jesse Kelly (R) – $95k raised, $206k on hand

    CA-03:

    Dan Lungren (R) – $220k raised, $650k on hand

    CA-11:

    Brad Goehring (R) – $131k raised, $437k on hand

    David Harmer (R) – $381k raised, $327k on hand

    CA-18:

    Dennis Cardoza (D) – $151k raised, $525k on hand

    Mike Berryhill (R) – $21k raised + $225k loans, $244k on hand

    CA-44:

    Ken Calvert (R) – $264k raised, $702k on hand

    CA-45:

    Mary Bono Mack (R) – $336k raised, $1.074m on hand

    CA-47:

    Loretta Sanchez (D) – $259k raised, $1.077m on hand

    Van Tran (R) – $86k raised, $312k on hand

    CO-03:

    John Salazar (D) – $303k raised, $1.1m on hand

    CO-04:

    Cory Gardner (R) – $273k raised, $539k on hand

    CT-04:

    Thomas Hermann (R) – $83k + $300k loan, $365k on hand

    FL-02:

    Allen Boyd (D) – $230k raised, $1.52m on hand

    William Southerland (R) – $155k raised, $157k on hand

    FL-08:

    Bruce O’Donoghue (R) – $305k raised + $50k loans, $309k on hand

    FL-24:

    Suzanne Kosmas (D) – $263k raised, $1.038m on hand

    Sandy Adams (R) – $73k raised + $100k loan, $168k on hand

    Karen Diebel (R) – $118k raised, $221k on hand

    GA-08:

    Jim Marshall (D) – $407k raised, $850k on hand

    GA-12:

    John Barrow (D) – $203k raised, $825k on hand

    Regina Thomas (D) – $10k raised, $4k on hand

    HI-01:

    Ed Case (D) – $157k raised, $214k on hand

    IA-03:

    Leonard Boswell (D) – $167k raised, $578k on hand

    ID-01:

    Vaughn Ward (R) – $168k raised, $290k on hand

    IL-11:

    Debbie Halvorson (D) – $419k raised, $1.25m on hand

    Adam Kinzinger (R) – $224k raised, $299k on hand

    IN-02:

    Jackie Walorski (R) – $167k raised, $201k on hand

    IN-08:

    Larry Bucshon (R) – $90k raised + $50k loans, $163k on hand

    IN-09:

    Baron Hill (D) – $234k raised, $908k on hand

    Todd Young (R) – $139k raised, $226k on hand

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