Google Ads


Site Stats

OH-Sen: Fisher Leads Brunner by 7, But Undecideds Rule

by: James L.

Tue Mar 30, 2010 at 4:59 PM EDT


Quinnipiac (3/25-28, likely voters, 2/16-21 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 33 (29)
Jennifer Brunner (D): 26 (20)
Undecided: 40 (48)
(MoE: ±3.1%)

The votes in this race won't be counted until primary day on May 4th, but early voting begins today, meaning this primary should be in high gear right about now. Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher has had a small but consistent lead in all of the primary polling we've seen of this race (done almost entirely by Quinnipiac, it should be mentioned), but with 40% of voters undecided and 65% of those who are backing a candidate saying they might change their mind, plenty of votes are still up for grabs.

The question, though, is how can Brunner, whose fundraising woes are by this point well-documented, swoop up those undecided and soft Fisher voters? A well-funded campaign might have had the ability to make a real impression right now, which is exactly why Brunner is paying for her months of weak fundraising efforts so dearly today. As it is, she can rely on activist shoe leather to keep Fisher on guard, but snatching the primary win may turn out to be an opportunity that Brunner blew when she couldn't persuade donors to invest in her campaign.
James L. :: OH-Sen: Fisher Leads Brunner by 7, But Undecideds Rule
Tags: , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

OH-Sen: Fisher Leads Brunner by 7, But Undecideds Rule | 48 comments
fund raising in Ohio
Right now, the Ohio rank and file are broke and discouraged. At this point in the cycle, the "fat cat" donors rule the day. And ODP chair Redfern and Gov Strickland have those locked up and/or quarantined such that it would be almost impossible for Brunner to pry them away.

DINOs, business types, lawyers, lobbyists, "insiders" just naturally tilt to Fisher.

Ironically, if Brunner were to prevail in the primary, I would expect the fundraising situation to change to where Brunner's outreach to da roots would kick in.

Same old excuses

[ Parent ]
Yup
As a former Brunner supporter I got tired of repeating them.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Yup
Brunner's support is increasing, what is Fisher's excuse now?
[ Parent ]
WTF, Jennifer Brunner?
http://www.cleveland.com/open/...

"All voters who switch parties for the May 4 primary must sign a form supporting their new party's principles under a controversial directive Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner issued on Friday. "

Here in Virginia for the 2008 primary, the Republicans tried to have a "loyalty oath" for voters in their primary. It was unpopular, so they backed off on it. I don't understand why Brunner thinks this is a good idea, especially at the last minute before the primary.

J'recuse

[ Parent ]
Well gee James L.
Why don't you just come out and say "I support Lee Fisher to win the Ohio democratic senate primary."  That's pretty much what you wrote here, what was essentially a scathing blow against Jennifer Brunner.  

What I see in this poll are the following.  

1.Positive trendlines for Brunner
2.Fisher failing to lock up mainstream support despite being on tv the last 3 weeks at least.
3.A LOT of undecideds.  

For you to say that Brunner has "missed her chance" when 2/5 of the electorate is undecided and 3/5 say they could conceivably change their vote is just plain ignorant.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

Where you see bias
I see analysis with no conclusion, solely based on the horse-race aspects of the competition.

JamesL said nothing about the policy positions of either candidate. I see no endorsement, direct or implied.

[ Parent ]
Yup
All James said was, one probably cant do that great of a job winning over undecideds if you have no money to advertise, especially compared to someone who will have plenty of money.  If the only ads people see are, vote for Fisher, they will.  
[ Parent ]
Yup
And in the process falling further and further behind Portman. This really pisses me off. I'm sorry but it is turning into a huge wasted opportunity. Cillizza has a article talking about the DSCC not having the cash to help Kendrick Meek. And he has a decent start. How are they gonna help either Dem in Ohio? Argh!
[ Parent ]
it's looking like WTF?ville at the DSCC

It's like Menendez wants to ruin all chances at a close to breakeven outcome in November.  Schumer would have gotten in and gotten in early and prevented this clusterf-ck.

Or maybe Menendez just has "Senate: R+7" in the office pool.

[ Parent ]
To be fair
Schumer had a few things working in his favor:

1. The cycle was way better for Democrats
2. The Republicans had a super-incompetent NRSC chair (wish Liddy Dole were chairing the NRSC this year :()

This is not to play the apologist for Menendez (who I think hasn't done the greatest of jobs) but it's at least worth mentioning that there really are some circumstances that are simply beyond his control (and it's also worth mentioning that he has done somethings right, such as getting Dodd to retire in Connecticut and getting Blumenthal to run).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Oh ya
Ohio loves the preparation-h crowd from NY and NJ picking our candidates.
[ Parent ]
Because most people who aren't political nerds
and aren't already decided are really going to know that at some point Chuck Schumer or Bob Menendez pushed another candidate out of the way (or even who the hell either one is...)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
60k
With 40% of voters undecided and only 60k in the bank, how the hell do you think she is going to reach out to more voters than Fisher in a large, expensive state like Ohio? 60k is more like a low-budget state senate campaign, not a US Senate campaign.  
[ Parent ]
LOL
It'd be pretty humiliating to be defeated by Brunner with those figures. Sucks to be Fisher and have all this pressure.
[ Parent ]
Nothing new
Mods have been pointing out the obvious for months. And are you seriously claiming him picking up four points and her six as a positive trend to her?

This is becoming tiresome. How on earth can she compete with Portman if she were to win the primary? Sure, she starts to bring in some more money. Say, similar to what Fisher has up to now. Well, that will be too late once the GOP carpet bomb the state with ads a la Whitman in California.

I ask again, people who believe the best chance is with Fisher readily accept the guy is far from perfect so why is it all Brunner people can do is make excuses for her?

I know I've gone on and on and on on this point time and time again but if one thing has got my goat this cycle then this is it.

[ Parent ]
With
all do respect I think James was just laying out the facts. Sometimes the facts just don't go our way, everything he said about Brunner was absolutely true. I don't see how this is an endorsement, but nothing is stopping SSP from endorsing anyone if they really wanted to.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I endorse Fisher
Not that that means jack but take it for what it is. My final, final word on the subject.
[ Parent ]
Well
I support Fisher as well, I was talking about SSP editors endorsing candidates though.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Pretty ridiculous stuff you've got going on there.
I'm no fan of Lee Fisher (not that I have anything in particular against him, either), but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that elections cost money. How do you think Brunner is going convince all those undecided voters to support her when she can't afford to reach them? Is she going to start fundraising now instead of campaigning, when she really should have been building up her war chest in the summer?

Hell, the very premise of this post was that voters could change their minds, but that Brunner wasn't in a strong position to make that happen. That is what I'd call a missed opportunity.

I find it disappointing to be seen as supporting or endorsing a candidate when all I was attempting to do was to present the facts, however unpleasant they may be. The "scathing blow" I laid out against your candidate had nothing to do with her policies but everything to do with the position that she's placed herself in.

[ Parent ]
I think an apology is in order
Looking back at what I wrote, I see now that it was inflammatory in nature, and I don't think it was very well thought out.  Clearly I have staked out a very entrenched position on this particular race, and my intention was not to steer the masses of SSP against me.  However through some ill-conceived accusations earlier, it's clear that I have done so, in the process lobbying an apparently false claim against one of SSP's editors.  

James, I apologize for coming after you like that.  You didn't deserve that, and neither would DavidNYC or Crisitunity.  As a person and a political analyst, I always rail against people and positions that I consider to be extreme, and now I realize that I am starting to head down that slippery slope when discussing the Ohio Senate race.  Most of it stems from my steadfast belief that Lee Fisher is simply unelectable, but that doesn't make it right.

So from now on, I will refrain from talking about this race on SSP.  I'll be rooting for a Brunner victory on primary election night, but whether that happens or not, I'll be turning my attention toward turning this seat blue in November.        

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Thanks - apology accepted
You've been around here for a while and it's clear that what you wrote was a bit out of character -- I think that can happen to any of us. Thanks for your post; I consider everything to be already water under the bridge at this point.
[ Parent ]
LOL Lee Fisher!
What is wrong with Ohio? We're going from a cross-eyed fool to a perpetual loser who embarrasses us internationally, i.e. couldn't seal the deal in Russia for the steel jobs. Lee Fisher needs some Rogaine.
MODS!!!
This troll needs to be shown the door to Chez SSP.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
What are you talking about
At least some have introduced a legit campaign issue in the thread. The thought-police shouldn't control democratic campaigns.
[ Parent ]
You seem deliberately disruptive.
Please prove me wrong in the future.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Disruptive of what?
A multi-million dollar campaign so pathetic they have to hog free media? The Fisher campaign has the bucks, go to the bucks media since that is what he is running on.
[ Parent ]
Your messages aren't consistent with the mission of this site
The focus is on election analysis -

not advocacy (or dissing) of issues or candidates.

Just from observation, users who have strayed into pure advocacy (or dissing) of issues or candidates have been banned.

And it is that regulation from the moderators of this site which makes analytical people like me feel welcome here.

[ Parent ]
OK, election analysis?
Fisher thinks the nomination belongs to him because he raised the most capital, not the most votes.
[ Parent ]
The laborer in Southern Ohio
Tell the laborer in Southern Ohio she should vote for Fisher because he raised the most capital, not because he blew a deal for steel jobs from Russia with 10%+ unemployment in the state.
[ Parent ]
I agree with spiderdem
Both of us have tried to provide info about this site to user Rock N' Roll.

That user continues his/her tirades that are not consistent with the mission of this site. S/he doesn't even show evidence of listening to the warnings that we've provided.

I believe user Rock N' Roll is a troll. If s/he continues with these tirades, I believe that user will soon be banned.

[ Parent ]
Who are the trolls?
This thread was dominated by Fisher trolls for awhile and they just can't stand a balanced exchange it appears.
[ Parent ]
Really?
Show us how these "Fisher trolls" are acting trollish. They're not the ones disrupting discussions, parroting talking points such as "perennial loser" last I checked.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Here comes Fisher's Republicans fans
Is this where Fisher is getting all his capital? Rob Portman and the pansy Ohio GOP must fear a strong Ohio woman in the general, not a weak perpetual loser like Fisher.
[ Parent ]
"perpetual loser"
What part of "Fisher's losses were in the 90s, the Dark Ages for Ohio Democrats" do you not understand?

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
You're not a Democrat
Democrats support the underfunded underdogs, not the fat cats like Fisher.
[ Parent ]
You do your candidate no favors
With this attitude.
[ Parent ]
Yeah...
Personally if I lived in Ohio the Brunner trolls would get old after a while and would make me like Fisher more, which is a shame since aside from the fundraising Brunner has many attractive qualities. But I don't live in Ohio so I guess it doesn't matter anyway :)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Ohio for Ohioans
Get out coastal DINOs!
[ Parent ]
Then
I better not see your face in any non-Ohio discussions.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
And
How do you know I'm a DINO? I am actually neutral on the Ohio Senate race and don't care who wins the primary. (And by the way, if your definition of DINO is only somebody who "supports a fat cat", then this must be a DINO haven, I suppose.)

And by the way, I'm a woman too. Who's the one attacking women again?

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
Boy
I was initially having some remorse for coming down too hard on this Rock n' Roller.  Turns out I was prescient to try to nip this piece of work in the bud.  Amazing how disruptive one person can be to a perfectly good thread.  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Well
the mods have taken care of it now.  Bansville.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
I was sooooo tempted to start a pool
but I was thinking in terms of hours, not minutes... (and hesitated because it didn't seem seemly) gosh they're fast.

(Thank you, mods!)

[ Parent ]
Thanks
guys, I have been without my iPhone all day and lets just say I'm glad I was (not really, I luv u iPhone). I'm glad to see you guys stand up to RockN'Roll, I could have replied to every comment, but you guys took care of most it for me. He made claims that had nothing but petty insults to back him up with. So in my one reply let me say I support Lee Fisher because Brunner is not a good candidate. She has only managed to rake in 60K in a state like Ohio. Everyone says she has the netroots behind her, well Bill Halter raised a shitload more than FISHER in less than a week, now that's netroots! I have no doubt in my mind that the base will line up for Fisher when they see a former Bushie on the ballot. The DSCC would have to seriously bail Brunner out, and I know her numbers would slightly increase, but it could be too late. I originally supported Brunner, and I like her personally, and I could envision her running for something else down the road, but she is now a failed cause.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Just curious- how did Brunner get elected to statewide office
in the first place? Since she's apparently a poor campaigner/fundraiser?

(Note: I'm not complaining about that, obviously I'm very happy that she did win that SoS race)

[ Parent ]
I
would assume it had to do with the corruption of the Republican party in Ohio in 2006. Plus she had the national mood, Bob Taft still in office, and Strickland/Brown on the top of the ticket. She doesn't have all of those positives on her side now.


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
OH-Sen: Fisher Leads Brunner by 7, But Undecideds Rule | 48 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox