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WA-Sen: Murray With 11-Point Edge Over Rossi

by: Crisitunity

Thu Mar 25, 2010 at 3:26 PM EDT


Research 2000 for Daily Kos (3/22-24, likely voters, 2/16-18, 2009 in parentheses):

Patty Murray (D): 51 (53)
Dave Reichert (R): 43 (40)
Undecided: 6 (7)

Patty Murray (D): 52
Dino Rossi (R): 41
Undecided: 7

Patty Murray (D): 54
Don Benton (R): 35
Undecided: 11

Patty Murray (D): 55
Paul Akers (R): 28
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±4.0%)

There's been emerging conventional wisdom in the last couple months that Dino Rossi poses a threat to Patty Murray in the Washington Senate race, if he gets in. That seems to have entirely two pillars of support holding that up, though: a couple polls from Rasmussen, and another one from Portland-based Republican internal pollster Moore Insight. Research 2000 has a rather different take: Murray has an 11-point lead on Rossi, who, with a 47/47 favorable (thanks to the heavy exposure of losing two contentious gubernatorial races), really doesn't have much more room for growth.

Rep. Dave Reichert (who's generally well-liked and isn't covered in two-time loser stank) is probably the GOP's best bet in Washington, and even he comes up short against Murray -- in fact, thanks to one-year-old trendlines, we can see there's been only a small amount of erosion for Murray, either in the matchup against Reichert or in her favorables (52/41 now, 55/40 then), despite all the craziness of the last year. Murray also easily takes care of two of her actually announced GOP opponents, state Sen. Don Benton and businessman Paul Akers (the only candidate to have advertised so far).

RaceTracker: WA-Sen

Crisitunity :: WA-Sen: Murray With 11-Point Edge Over Rossi
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Looks like Likely Dem to me
I'd put her in the same territory as Feingold.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

If Thompson runs, I hardly think Feingold is at Likely Dem.


[ Parent ]
Well, if Rossi runs, I'd probably downgrade Murray a bit too


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
R2k is about as good as Rasmussen
Reichert outrunning Rossi?  

Yeah, curious...
To GOP voters point - do we have an proof besides ideological that R2K is any better than Rasumussen? Or should we split the difference?

I know R2K did pretty well on Mass Senate, but was really off on the VA Gov race.  


[ Parent ]
They both lean in the opposite direction
Just allow for it. Probably something like 49-44 at worst. Competitive but nothing more.

[ Parent ]
Nate Silver's latest post
on house effects says that Rasmussen is operating at R+5.5 and R2K is at D+4.4 this cycle.

Here's the money quote: "These are, obviously, very large differences: it implies that if Research 2000 and Rasmussen were to poll the same race, we'd expect about a 10 point difference between them."


[ Parent ]
I think it pretty clear
The reason in the case of Research 2000 is they are basing the electorate in each state too closely to 2008. Almost identical in both polls released today by Kos. I don't think anybody really expects that to be anything like reality in November.

[ Parent ]
Didn't know that was the reason
but it makes sense.

[ Parent ]
Thank you!
I did not see this post before, although I go into 538 all the time, and think very highly of Nate Silver.

This seems about right to me - Rossi is behind, and the seat is still likely D, but if the environment worsens it could become competitive.  


[ Parent ]
It backed up my gut
Which was one leans left the other right but the right one leans a little more.

[ Parent ]
Pretty well on MA Sen?
If you call 19 pts of little less than 2 weeks before the election pretty well...

[ Parent ]
Dude
I'm sorry but you have to stop cherry-picking that poll. R2K's poll right before the election had a tie with a 5 pt MoE, and Scott Brown won by 5, so technically they were correct. Do you think that Survey USA is a bad pollster because of their September NC poll showing McCain up 20 points? I think most people would judge their record based on their last poll before the election.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
He's also off on his math.
They were off by 13% on their first poll and 5% on their last.  This is the second time he's repeated this misinformation.  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Sorry
Just playing from my memory. While R2K is not as obviously biased as Rasmussen, many of their polls have shown a Dem lean. I'm not saying they're totally off, I just think Rossi is closer than 11 pts off.  

[ Parent ]
You're probably right on that count.
Murray is probably up by mid-to-high single digits which is still pretty good.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I think he is closer than that too.
Sorry to jump all over you.  You may not have read my comments where I corrected you on this a few weeks ago.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
No, that doesn't make them technically correct
The margin of error is supposed to be one of decreasing probability, to the point that - if I remember Nate Silver's explanation correctly - there would be a 10% chance of it reaching beyond the upper or lower limit. Which also explains why, if two politicians are 3 points apart in a poll with a MoE of 3 points, they are NOT "statistically tied."

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
What do you mean?
I'll admit I'm rusty on stats, having not taken it for 5-ish years, I thought the x% chance of it reaching above/below has to do with the confidence interval. I tried searching for Nate Silver's explanation that you cited but didn't get far; if you could find the article that would be great.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I may look for the article later on 538
but I'll say this: If a poll has a MoE of 5% and is 5% off, it didn't do very well; instead, it barely covered its ass. I think that's clear.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Actually, that's completely wrong
5% margin of error usually means that a given poll will fall somewhere between 5% over or 5% under the given number 95% of the time (this is true even if a poll is conducted perfectly under perfect circumstances).

Silver has mentioned in the past that, based purely on chance alone, polls are almost certainly going to be correct 19/20 times (but wrong 1 out of every 20 times).

My own statistics is rusty, but I remember that much at least.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Good
And those percentages were the ones Nate gave.

I'm not a statistics person, but what I don't get is where you think you are in disagreement with me.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Well yes
it was barely right, but it was still right. I wouldn't say they nailed it (that award goes to PPP) but it's still respectable.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Respectable, yes, barely
because it is just within their margin of error. But "technically right"? No. It's wrong by 5%.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
In that case
Almost no poll would be "right" unless they either a) got lucky or b) spent a ridiculous amount of time and money getting a large enough sample size to make the MoE nonexistent.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I'm beginning to suspect we're dealing in semantics
Getting a race right in polling inevitably involves some luck! It's only responsible for pollsters to build in a margin of error as what a lay person would call a "fudge factor." I just object to calling "within the margin of error" "technically right." That's all. Except for one thing: I'd be interested to know whether they tend to poll toward the upper end of their margin of error on average or actually average closer to the midpoint of their MoE, which would be ideal.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
The question isn't "right or wrong" in polling per se
but whether there is a metholodgical issue.

i.e. if a result is outside the MoE, there is probably something wrong with the questions, etc.

If a result is within the MoE, it is fair to suggest random variation.

If the result is based on multiple polls, then additional statistical work can be done to determine if there is a methodological issue - if the bias in the results are all (or most) in one direction.


[ Parent ]
That's what I meant by "right"
I suppose we were splitting hairs. All I meant is that they got it within the MoE.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
With Survey USA out to pasture
I'm watching PPP most closely so far this cycle. I think we can forgive them the NY-23 screw-up since they were the only company to nail NJ, VA and MA.

[ Parent ]
Certainly
It was dumb of them to poll on Halloween and also to keep going with the poll despite the shakeup in the race (i.e. Scozzafava dropping out then endorsing Owens shortly after), but those were special circumstances that likely won't be repeated. As far as normal races go, PPP does very well.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Also, FWIW
While PPP dropped the ball bigtime, no pollster got that race right. Siena came out with a poll after the weekend showing Hoffman up 5, not as bad as PPP's result but still pretty far off.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
They were never off 19%
and that race was REALLY quick in developing.  A lot of pollsters were way off of the final result within the last two weeks.  We have no way of knowing where the race was at any point except on election day.  They were off by 5% on their last poll.

If I had to guess, I'd say Nate Silver's about right, they lean D.  But acting like Massachusetts was some big embarrassment for them is a little misleading.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
From my perch here in WA-08
I can tell you that lots of indies and even some Dems like Reichert. Rossi's a more polarizing figure; he's got the people who voted for him in the 2008 race, and that's about it. In fact, probably less than that, as there are still some Scoop Jackson-type Dems (i.e. all Boeing, all the time) out there who'd pick Rossi over Gregoire but Murray over Rossi.

[ Parent ]
Reichert
Wasn't he a former sheriff? Maybe that could be why. Sheriff's generally have higher name rec. I just remembered that.
So, as a Washingtonian, who do you think is strongest? Rossi- Reichert- or millionaire Paul Akers?

[ Parent ]
Maybe Reichert
if he follows Ellsworth's example. (The Senate needs a Sheriff!)

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
The
Senate only needs ONE Sheriff!!!! Reichert doesn't have anything on Ellsworth!

 

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


[ Parent ]
Reichert caught the green river killer,
aka the most prolific serial killer in American history, so, at least Sheriff-wise, I think Reichart holds his own. I also think the Reichart has won in tougher political races and climates than Ellsworth. However, if Ellsworth can pull out a Indiana senate win in this cycle, then he totally trumps Reichart on the political front.

[ Parent ]
Reichert outruns Rossi because he'd get more centrist votes
Nothing mysterious about that.  Reichert is easily the best Team Red has in Washington state.

[ Parent ]
Reichert- has he actually been considering
this race? He's not mentioned on SSP's Open Seat Watch from a couple days ago: 2010 House Open Seat Watch (3/23/10)
Opening up the WA-08 seat sure would be sweet.

Yeah, we'd probably pick up WA-8
But it would create a real headache for the Senate race.  It'd probably be a tossup.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
I dunno,
Patty Murray's has made a career out of defeating up and coming Washington Congressmen.  

[ Parent ]
Good news.
I wouldn't put R2K in the same category as Rasmussen in that we've seen fewer outlier polls from them than Rasmussen.  Course we have seen a pro-Democratic tilt from them.  Which is why I'll want to see more polling in this race from other firms.

Still it's better than what I was expecting.  This has always been the race I've been waiting for a shoe to drop in.  And I'm relieved I haven't seen it drop yet.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...


Rossi might not want to run
because he has a lot of dirty laundry in business dealings that are going to get fully revealed in this race and badly damage him.

That real estate deal
He was cleared of any wrong doing this week. http://seattletimes.nwsource.c...

[ Parent ]
That's not what i was talking about
Rossi has close connections to a rather disreputable businessman.  

[ Parent ]
Rossi was only cleared of dealings with the builders PAC
His real estate dealings have never had legal scurtiny although one sometime partner entered a no contest plea agreement for bilking investors. That settlement was reached 3 weeks after the 08 election. You can bet that would be back to bite Rossi if he filed again.

Reichert hasn't expressed any interest in challenging Murray. In fact, he is teaming with Murray on some environmental legislation.

Reichert is currently in a DC hospital with a brain bleed. He spoke to some law enforcement friends last fall about retiring. Now there will probably be more questions about whether health issues may push him into retirement.


I hope that doesn't happen
Health trumps politics. I do not want to see him have to retire for health reasons.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
By the way
What's the environmental legislation those two are working on?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Murray and Reichert Jointly introduced Alpine Lake Wildreness
and river protection measure and another measure that protects wildlife areas in the North Cascades.

[ Parent ]

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