Research 2000 doesn't have very appealing numbers out of the Kentucky Senate race, where, over the last half a year, Rand Paul seems to have strengthened his position considerably. Very little else has changed -- in the Dem primary, Dan Mongiardo leads Jack Conway by about the same a bigger margin, while Mongiardo and Conway both poll about the same as before vis-a-vis Trey Grayson -- but Paul has shot into the lead in the GOP primary. And Paul is now overperforming Grayson in relation to the Dems, instead of losing to them, as was the case in September.
Color me a little puzzled; the libertarian-minded Paul just seems to have the wrong profile for Kentucky, an Appalachian-flavored state that's socially conservative and likes its earmarks. The SurveyUSA poll of a few weeks ago seemed to promise a competitive race in Kentucky, but it was based on a Generic D/R question. The problem seems to be that Paul is by no means a Generic Republican, and Grayson hasn't seemed to be able to find a way to make a case on just how weird Paul is (while the Dems have been mostly focused on walloping each other). Let's hope the Dems' May 18 nominee will fare a little better on that front.
