CO

Excellent news, hopefully he helps Bennet.

29/D/Male/NY-01

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by: Tekzilla @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 18:15:24 PM UTC

My feelings exactly.

Hopefully peeps who turned out for Hickenlooper don't split their ticket for the GOP Senate nominee.

Does Bennett have the Dem nod in hand? I don't remember the polls.

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by: nrimmer @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 19:46:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tied

Anything but. Bennett and Romanoff are going to be in a fight until the very end. We might not know who wins until the night of the primary (or the next day).

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by: kman23 @ Sat Mar 13, 2010 at 20:19:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I feel like we're getting two end points

but nothing but noise in the middle.

I know it's impossible to predict the actual make up of voters in Nov., but I'm not sure if trust PPP or Rass to get it close this far out.

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by: wmlawman @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 18:15:25 PM UTC

This post is tagged wrong

I thought Hickenlooper was in the Gov race.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

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by: daman09 @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 18:34:31 PM UTC

Whoops

Thanks for catching that.

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by: James L. @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 18:36:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

How I personally see it...

Republican - 35%
Independent - 35%
Democrat - 30%

Hickenlooper - 10/53/95 = 52%
McInnis - 90/47/5 = 48%

Toss-up.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 18:37:56 PM UTC

Personally I trust PPP's likely voter screen

They've been doing great this cycle. Absolutely knocked MA-Sen out of the park, got NJ-Gov and ME-Init within the MoE, and did pretty well in Virginia. Obviously their biggest failure was in NY-23, but that's not a bad reflection on their polling so much as an error in judgment to continue with the poll despite the funky circumstances of the race.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 18:53:29 PM UTC

Eat that Scotty

Nice to see that Rasmussen isn't the only one polling this race.

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by: panhandler @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 19:04:38 PM UTC

Worth adding on turnout model is that the PPP guys have explained before...

...that tweaking the turnout model in a poll to rebalance on age, or party ID, or whatnot, doesn't change the toplines very much once you sit down and actually do the math.

And they're right, because I discovered the same thing in my own math when doing that tweaking of polls for fun the past couple cycles.

So even if the PPP turnout model is more Hickenlooper-friendly than November's reality, an 11-point edge wouldn't be erased and instead would decline only a few points to stay in the high single-digits.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 19:07:55 PM UTC

+1

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by: kman23 @ Sat Mar 13, 2010 at 20:20:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not just CO-Gov...

but Markos points out several governor's races where Rasmussen's polling is not even in the same ballpark as other pollsters who've polled the race.  And that's not just PPP, but also Quinnipiac (OH-Gov) and Research 2000 (IL-Gov).  We're talking MORE than a 10-point swing in each case.

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by: BruinKid @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 22:31:11 PM UTC

Probably a little generous

The other way. But thank goodness for PPP upping their output this cycle else Rasmussen would be getting away with his nonsense to an even greater degree.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 23:31:56 PM UTC