first post!?

let's update this ras bull$h!t and hypothesize the ACTUAL numbers

CO-GOV
Hickenlooper 46
McInnis 44

I think this will be close but with Hick's popularity in Denver metro and some turmoil with the Republicans over the nominee, I don't see how this will go red

IL-GOV
Quinn 45
Brady 40

This may be even too nice for Brady, but being so conservative and from downstate, I dont see how Quinn looses this one, with an even more healthy margin than Hickenlooper in CO.

Don't know enought about OH gov to make a numbers prediction.  Kasich may be up but I wouldn't give him an 11 point lead. That's pretty big in a swing state like OH.

Once the primary's over in OH-SEN, the Dem candidate will really be able to hammer portman and his bush/D.C. connections. I am cautiously optimistic with this one, and think Fisher or Brunner could beat Portman with the right messaging, campaign, and GOTV. Hopefully a pick up here and in NH, MO (maybe even KY!?) will offset our losses in ND, DE, AR, and possibly NV.

phew...done with my first post

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by: cre90 @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 04:41:53 AM UTC

Has Rasmussen ever said

where they get the money to do these polls?

SUSA is sometimes paid by local media. PPP has candidates and issue groups as clients, so their public polls have to be accurate if they are to continue getting clients.

Who is paying for Rasmussen's polling?  

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by: Newsie8200 @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 05:22:21 AM UTC

Good question

We talked about this in the daily digest recently:

Interestingly, he also points to why Rasmussen is able to do so: a "major growth capital investment" from private equity firm Noson Lawen. (Noson Lawen, and what their potential agenda might be, sounds like an interesting topic for enterprising investigative bloggers...)

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by: James L. @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 05:28:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

RNC I am sure.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

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by: daman09 @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 06:18:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

How much does it actually cost to do a robopoll?

My sense of it is Raszogby's phone polls cost almost nothing to do.

Robocalls + plug the numbers into the screwball likely voter mixer = puke out numbers

A kid with a lemondae stand could support that.

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by: tommypaine @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 09:01:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

IL

I know Rasumussen has been off the mark, but doesn't Quinn being down by 10 represent like a 20 point swing from other polls?

29/D/Male/NY-01

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by: Tekzilla @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 14:38:22 PM UTC

OH

The Ohio Gov poll represents a 16 point swing from what Quinnipiac found last week.  

33, male, Dem, OH-13

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by: 54cermak @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 21:18:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes, and with little discernable reason

I can't figure out what would cause Quinn's numbers to drop so precipitously, or even to be behind in the first place. Yes, it's Budget Season, and that makes everyone pissy, but Brady's gotten absolutely awful press lately, from continuous coverage of his pet euthanasia bill to former Gov. Edgar (the ILGOP's Reagan) calling him "naive" and declining to campaign for him.

Brady's had a pretty terrible kickoff to his campaign, in a state that Republicans need to run flawlessly to capture. So where's this coming from?

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by: colbycakes @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 22:56:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Alright

this is just silly. We are not doing that badly.

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by: Populista @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 20:25:37 PM UTC