Again

Another missed oppritunity by leaving CA-44 out of the picture.

COME ON, there is a great candidate running for that seat, and lost by only 2%.  Why the hell is the DCCC focusing onraces where dems beat by upwards of 6%?!

It just boggles my mind why they are shooting themselves in the foot and not trying to take out a republican who is ON THE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE!?!?!?!?!

/facepalm

Well Hedrick, there is always 2012...

19, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

Bill Hedrick(D) for CA-44

---

by: daman09 @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 00:17:24 AM CST

AL-03

Josh Segall - he only lost by 6% in 2008

he started earlier and he's been raising some good money

---

by: politicalal @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 00:52:08 AM CST

In Alabama THIS year?

No chances. There were some chances in excellent (for Democrats) 2008, but not in 2010. May be - after redistricting in 2012... In addition - Rogers sometimes (rare, but still...) votes against Republican orthodoxy on some economic issues, and generally considered to be the least conservative among (admittingly - very conservative in general) Alabama's House Republicans. That will, probably, be enough for him to win

---

by: smoltchanov @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 02:58:16 AM CST

[ Parent ]

knee jerk

smoltchanov: admit that you don't know that much about this race.  For instance, you don't know that Segall didn't run ads in a third of the district, didn't do mail or cable or radio last time, didn't run any positive ads, had no DCCC support, and was outspent 2-1.  But you think he can't win if that all changes?  The district is a third black.  Mike Rogers voted for the bailout.  And apparently there's an independent running.  http://www.layfieldforcongress...

---

by: jpo227 @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 09:45:25 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I will not

because i followed this race with great attention in 2008. The blacks will NOT vote in 2010 "en-masse" as they did in 2008 with Obama on ballot. And i know about both candidates fundraising (in 2008 and 2010) and about independent candidate too. So, please abstain from baseless accusations. And even better - just shut up.

---

by: smoltchanov @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 10:17:56 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Guys

This isn't the type of discourse we condone on this site. Please -- keep it civil. This is a warning.

---

by: James L. @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 11:10:15 AM CST

[ Parent ]

How do you know Obama helped?

My understanding is that there was a greater increase in white vote than black vote.

---

by: jpo227 @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 13:54:34 PM CST

[ Parent ]

hat's YOUR understanding

Yes, Alabama's whites reacted very negatively to Obama. But there was great enthusiasm for Obama anmong blacks, which really comprise about 1/3 of district electorate. Taking into account that blacks in Alabama vote almost uniformly Democratic that alone  geuranteed Segall a big chunk of vote. In very good Democratic year he got just enough white vote to be competitive, but that will be much more difficult in 2010, with Rogers well aware of Segall candidacy, him (Rogers) being good fundraiser and so on. BTW - conservative Independent candidate who runs in 2010, ran in this district before, but got very few votes... I don't see that it will be very different this time.

---

by: smoltchanov @ Thu Mar 11, 2010 at 02:29:18 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I definitely agree

Alabama, this year?  Plus, maybe we'll get lucky and they'll decide to shore up Bright and give Rogers a safer district so we can just get Bright to vote with us on some stuff.

---

by: Andrew @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 11:14:12 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Some suggestions

Once Democrats find a candidate FL-25 will probably make the second wave list.

Maybe MO-8.

Was it OK-5 where Obama improved the Democratic performance?

MT-At Large. Guess we'll have to wait until Rehberg leaves.

VA-1 and VA-10.

MI-2, MI-3, MI-4, MI-8, MI-11, IL-13, IL-16.  Basing those on presidential vote.  And we also need top notch candidates.

---

by: TXObserver @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 01:03:37 AM CST

Presidential vote in 2008

in Michigan and, especially, Illinois, is a sort of fluke - a lot of "one-time" enthusiasm fot Obama in solidly Republican districts, which now more or less reverted to their Republican "norm" and in some cases to "Obama-hate". So, probably, once again - almost no chances. In addition - no serious Democratic candidates in Il-13 and 16, where primary was already held...

---

by: smoltchanov @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 03:02:23 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Michigan could be key

Michigan has a number of districts that just barely lean Republican. Michigan is weird in that the Republicans in the Michigan House and Senate lean more moderate. They don't like the Republican stall tactics and hard line talk and this might be one area where it backfired. Most conservatives here and just libertarian hunters who have some race problems due to Detroit but they are pro-union and pro-environmental. The Democrats haven't had a real challenger in most of these districts and where they did, MI-07 (R+2) and MI-09 (D+2), they won.

Michigan is a great place for Democrats to pick up seats. They could win the 2nd (open), 4th (R+3), 6th (even), 8th (R+2), 10th (R+5), and the 11th (even) if they get good challengers.

The biggest problem Democrats will have in Michigan is Granholm, but she won't be on the ballot.  

---

by: kman23 @ Sat Mar 13, 2010 at 15:53:59 PM CST

[ Parent ]

FL-25 and Michigan

Out of these I'd say the Florida district is probably the most obvious candidate for a later addition. Though I think that anti-incumbency feeling in Michigan as a whole is likely extremely high given the economy, so there could be opportunities there with the right candidate(s).

---

by: armand @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 06:57:18 AM CST

[ Parent ]

MI-11

McCotters results in 2006 and 2008 against noname opposition where so poor he has too be considered higly vulnerable.

---

by: germanliberal @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 01:45:52 AM CST

You can't beat something with nothing

I'm talking about races with already-established viable contenders. I'm not expecting one to emerge in MI-11 -- I'm guessing the Dem bench is waiting that one out to see what happens in redistricting.

---

by: James L. @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 01:49:39 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I notice that none of the 6th wave of Red to Blue in 2008

candidates won.

Who were the 5th wave, and did any of them win?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

---

by: Pan @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 03:41:29 AM CST

waves 1-5 here

Via SSP, of all places.

Wave #5:

FL-08 Alan Grayson
FL-18 Annette Taddeo
KY-02 David Boswell
NC-10 Dan Johnson
NE-02 Jim Esch
OH-07 Sharen Neuhardt
PA-15 Sam Bennett
TX-07 Michael Skelly

One win (IIRC) -- but the whole R2B concept is to start with the most likely and keep expanding based on the cash flow.

---

by: Adam B. @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 12:27:08 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Here are the 2008 results by Wave

Wave 1 (Jan. 17): 4 for 7
Wave 2 (Mar. 12): 7 for 13
Wave 3 (Jun. 18): 8 for 14
Wave 4 (Aug. 1) :  2 for 7 (PA-03 and VA-05)
Wave 5 (Sep. 11): 1 for 8 (FL-08)
Wave 6 (Oct. 14):  0 for 8

2010 will be a lot different, but in 2008, if you got on by Wave 3 (in June), you had just as good a shot as those from the first 2 Waves.

---

by: DCal @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 12:43:08 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Um, why is TN-08 w/Roy Herron "red to blue"???......

That's Tanner's seat.  I assume that's a mistake......or maybe TN-08 is actually Zach Wamp's seat, and the wrong candidate is listed?  Either that, or the DCCC is revealing what they think of one of their own retiring incumbents!

42, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 05:47:36 AM CST

As mentioned in the write-up

They probably just didn't want to create a separate program for PA-07 and TN-08. (Anyone know if, say, Parker Griffith was in RtB in 08?)

20, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)

---

by: sapelcovits @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 07:27:51 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Oops, I missed that line in the write-up......

Thanks, that was my bad.

Still, I don't know I would put those seats in the "Red to Blue" category simply because I don't think the optics look good, on a couple different levels:  (1) does it highlight that Dems are in bad shape by suggesting the district itself should be treated as "really Republican"?; and (2) are you saying the vacating Democratic incumbents are too conservative?

On the other hand, the only people who pay attention to this stuff are the teeny tiny universe of campaign reporters and campaign junkies, so I guess it doesn't really matter.

42, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 08:03:12 AM CST

[ Parent ]

here is the 2008 list

http://74.125.47.132/search?q=...

The only one of the list that is blue to blue is Schrader in OR-05.  

---

by: gomer @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 08:41:39 AM CST

[ Parent ]

As strange as it looks

If PA-07 and TN-08 belong as "blue to blue" seats,

I think WA-03 belongs too - though I suppose it won't really until we settle on a candidate there. (Though I think Denny Heck is the odds on favorite.)

---

by: tietack @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 09:06:04 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Why would they need a separate program just for those districts?

In previous cycles, haven't they had a "Front-Line Democrats" program?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

---

by: Pan @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 11:14:25 AM CST

[ Parent ]

They shouldnt have lumped

Open Dem seats into the category with targeting Republicans incumbents.  Maybe should have put that into the category of incumbent Dems to protect.  They dont ever publish a list like that do they?  Because if not, it's probably why the open Dem seats are put here, gives them extra name rec they aren't getting by being Congresscritters.

---

by: Andrew @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 11:33:38 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Maybe the thinking is

There is an assumption those seats are lost so it is really blue to red to blue!

---

by: conspiracy @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 17:23:39 PM CST

[ Parent ]

They did publish a list of "front-line Democrats" in the last cycle, at least

I believe that list included open seats, too.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

---

by: Pan @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 19:56:40 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Well James

My 25c worth of wisdom.

CA-45, MN-06, OH-12, AL-03 - should probably be there. Will make next round if our guys have good march fundraising quarters.

FL-25 - Once we get a candidate, especially if it is Garcia, this one will surely be included.

CA-44 - If Hedrick pulls in a monster march quarter.

TX-32 - ditto for Roggio.

IL-13  - ditto for Harper.


2010 Race Tracker Wiki

---

by: benawu @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 06:07:40 AM CST

Why isn't LA-02 on this list?

I mean that is the seat most likely to turn over for the Democrats, so why the notable omission. The only thing I can think of is that none of the Dem candidates really stand out from one another so the DCCC is staying out. I'm sure once the primary and there is a single Democratic candidate is over this seat will be moved to the Red to Blue list.

---

by: Jaxx Raxor @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 08:57:36 AM CST

Primary

Not picking sides. Same reason PA-06 isn't listed.

---

by: conspiracy @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 17:21:18 PM CST

[ Parent ]

They probably don't think they need to waste the money

Joe Cao is toast whether he is on the list or not.

68, Dem-leaning indie, MI-8

---

by: jimmich @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 09:09:20 AM CST

IN-03 and MD-01

Both seats in which the challengers have outraised the incumbents in the last cycle, and in IN-03 the challenger actually has more cash on hand.  (The challengers are Tom Hayhurst and Casey Clark, respectively.)

Little minds, meet your hobgoblin.

---

by: Nonpartisan @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 09:22:24 AM CST

Isn't part of the list to help these

people with awareness and fundraising.  Maybe that's why they included FL-12 (my old home district).

---

by: wmlawman @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 09:37:23 AM CST

someone should run against Paul Ryan

Paul Ryan's (WI-01) new brilliant idea is to replace Medicare with coupons for old people to buy private health insurance. I really want a strong competent Democrat to campaign against this.
It's an R+2 district and Obama won it.

---

by: duffman @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 14:08:02 PM CST

I expect MN-06 to make the list.

I know, I know..."We had our best chance already blah, blah." The way Bachmann is though, she could say she supports extermination of Italian-Americans or something and we'll be back in business here tomorrow.

---

by: nrimmer @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 14:41:29 PM CST

Any polling out on Cao?

Just curious how bad he's gonna get hammered.

---

by: nrimmer @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 14:47:53 PM CST

[ Parent ]