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SSP Daily Digest: 3/1

by: Crisitunity

Mon Mar 01, 2010 at 4:40 PM EST


AZ-Sen: Tensions between John McCain and Arizona's state GOP chair Randy Pullen (who's more linked to the conservative grassroots than McCain's camp) are reaching a head; Pullen pulled his endorsement of McCain after the two scuffled over money for party GOTV efforts. McCain is planning a weird end-run around the state party involving funneling money through the Yuma County GOP. It remains to be seen whether J.D. Hayworth will benefit from the inside-baseball civil war; Hayworth, meanwhile, is finding that birtherism doesn't play as well once you're on the big stage instead of the AM-radio fringes: he's trying to walk back his previous birther-curious remarks, just saying he was trying to "provoke conversation."

FL-Sen: There might be some legs to the Marco Rubio expenses story that go beyond his use of the GOP state party's credit card. Now he's admitting that he double-billed both state taxpayers and the state GOP for eight different flights he took while state House speaker.

KS-Sen: Here's one less thing Republican Rep. Todd Tiahrt has to worry about: the Appropriations Committee veteran was cleared by the House Ethics committee over his links to sketchy lobbying firm PMA. Rep. Jerry Moran won't be able to use that against him in their Senate primary, but regardless, Tiahrt is still having trouble keeping pace with Moran in the polls.

KY-Sen: Here's a strange exchange between the Trey Grayson and Rand Paul camps. After Paul accused Grayson of having voted for Bill Clinton, Grayson responded that Paul voted for known whackjob Ron Paul for President, to which Rand said "It's hard for me to imagine anyone not voting for his own father." Meanwhile, Grayson is also still hitting Paul hard over the coal issue, and that could be an issue that, assuming Paul wins the primary, his Democratic nominee could keep getting a lot of mileage out of.

MD-Sen: Rasmussen actually bothered polling the Maryland Senate race, although they only used "Generic Republican" as Barbara Mikulski's opposition. She still wins easily, 54-36. Queen Anne's County Councilor and wealthy physician Eric Wargotz is moving toward entering the race, and former state Del. Carmen Amedori has already filed, so why the use of Generic R, though?

NY-Sen-B: Harold Ford Jr. keeps bumping back his timeline on announcing his plans on whether or not to challenge Kirsten Gillibrand in the Democratic primary (ostensibly because he doesn't want to do so while David Paterson is dominating the news). Given the unprecedented badness of his campaign rollout -- which may have just gotten worth with the news that his Merrill Lynch salary is $2 million, exclusive of bonuses -- he may be mulling whether or not go through with it after all.

OH-Sen: Rob Portman is drawing fire for his plans to address Cincinnati-area anti-tax group COAST and raise money for them, which has a history of inflammatory statements. COAST's website refers to Ohio's General Assembly as "Nazis." They also referred to Ted Kennedy as a "shovel-ready project."

PA-Sen: I'm not sure voters care much about this kind of process stuff, but Arlen Specter is landing some hard blows on Joe Sestak for paying his staffers so poorly (effectively below the minimum wage), especially while Sestak's three siblings (who are effectively the topmost tier of his campaign) make much more. Still, the rate at which the Sestak campaign is shedding staffers suggests something's amiss at camp Sestak.

WI-Sen: Politico is reporting that Tommy Thompson seems to be taking some serious steps toward a Senate run against Russ Feingold, at least to the extent of securing financial pledges and attempting to round up former staffers. Some insiders remain skeptical that the 67-year-old Thompson, who put forth a rather doddering image amidst the crash and burn of his 2008 presidential run, will actually pull the trigger.

IA-Gov: I wonder if this was who Ed Fallon had in mind when he said someone should primary Chet Culver in the gubernatorial race. Jonathan Narcisse announced that he'll take on Culver in the Democratic primary, focusing on educational issues. Narcisse, as a former Des Moines school board member and publisher of several independent newspapers, seems at least one step up from Some Dude status (although there's still a strong whiff of gadflyishness here).

IL-Gov: This Friday, March 5th, is the deadline for the Illinois State Board of Elections to certify the results of February's Republican gubernatorial primary. According to unofficial tallies (not disputed by either campaign), Bob Brady has a 247-vote lead on Kirk Dillard. Dillard's camp doesn't sound very optimistic - they seem to be holding out hope that a previously-unknown error will crop up in their favor. A spokesman says that Dillard might consider seeking a recount if the margin is less than 100 votes, but even that, they say, is not a "magical number." (D)

KS-Gov: Rasmussen has been nothing if not thorough in the last few months, and now they're the first pollster to look at a race that everyone has regarded as a foregone conclusion: the Kansas governor's race. They find Republican Sen. Sam Brownback leading Democratic state Sen. Tom Holland 55-33. Given the source, that's actually better than I would have expected.

MN-Gov: While state House minority leader Marty Seifert has taken on something of presumptive GOP frontrunner status, his closest competition, state Rep. Tom Emmer, is far from dead. Emmer just got the backing of two local Republican heavyweights, former Rep. Vin Weber, and RNC committee member and former gubernatorial candidate Brian Sullivan.

NY-Gov: Even though he's already pulled the plug on his re-election bid, there's still a lot of pressure on David Paterson to resign in the wake of the scandal involving a domestic violence allegation against a top aide. He's refusing, though; when asked whether resignation was off the table, he responded "I don't even know why it's on the table."

TN-Gov: One more Democrat pulled the plug on a gubernatorial bid today: state Senate minority leader Jim Kyle. Kyle cited poor fundraising (as he can't raise during the legislative session), as well as long odds in both the primary and general. With state Sen. Roy Herron already out (to pursue TN-08), this leaves only two contestants for the Democratic nod: former state House majority leader Kim McMillan, and businessman and gubernatorial progeny Mike McWherter.

AL-05: Rep. Parker Griffith is up with his first TV ad already, trying to portray the former Howard Dean supporter as opposed to the "radical Obama-Pelosi liberal agenda."

GA-07: With the retirement of Rep. John Linder, all sorts of conservative state legislators are being considered as potential candidates in suburban Atlanta, most prominently state Sens. Don Balfour (who just confirmed his entry) and David Shafer. This is also outgoing SoS Karen Handel's turf, but she's apparently not interested in abandoning her stalled gubernatorial campaign for the House. Former Atlanta Braves pitcher Jon Smoltz has already ruled out a bid, but one other blast from the past whose name is floating up is former Christian Coalition head Ralph Reed.

HI-01: It's official: Rep. Neil Abercrombie's last day on the job was yesterday. Today he's filing his papers to run for Governor instead.

MA-10: Maybe this is an indication that Rep. William Delahunt is sticking around for another term, as his rumored successor (in the event of a Delahunt retirement) Joe Kennedy III said today that he won't be running for Congress next year. Kennedy says he plans to focus on his day job as assistant district attorney in Barnstable County, but is interested in a future run.

NY-01: In case the race in the 1st wasn't complicated enough, with three different credible Republicans jostling in the primary and an Assemblyman considering joining them, now there's news that a Suffolk County Legislator (i.e. county councilor) is considering the race, as an Independent. Jay Schneiderman is a former Republican who's now in the county legislature on the Independence Party line. Initially this seems positive, as a third party might split the anti-Tim Bishop vote, but Bishop has been elected in the past on the Independence as well as the Democratic Party line, so it could actually complicate things for Bishop if Schneiderman secures the IP line.

PA-06: Those cryptic comments by Lower Merion Twp. Commissioner Brian Gordon about dropping out seem to have panned out: he pulled the plug on his short-lived bid for the Democratic nod without endorsing. Gordon seemed to have gotten in too late to pose much of a threat to Doug Pike and Manan Trivedi.

Filings: Campaign Diaries looks at the results from the close of the filings period in North Carolina. There's really not much of note here: the Republicans didn't seem to score any top-tier candidates in any Dem-held districts (although Tim d'Annunzio, in NC-08, at least seems to be willing to spend his own money). Also, it looks like Rep. Walter Jones, an iconoclastic Republican in a deep-red district, has avoided a major primary challenge (although he is still facing a GOP primary challenge from the Democrat he easily defeated in 2006 and 2008, Craig Weber).

Polltopia: I'm not really sure who to cheer for in a fight between Stu Rothenberg and Scott Rasmussen, but it's still on. Rothenberg started it with his dissection of Rasmussen's WI-Sen poll, wondering how the hell a majority of voters could have an opinion about unknown candidate Dave Westlake; Rasmussen fires back, saying look at the "strong" opinions instead of the "somewhat" favorables or unfavorables.

WATN?: Here's one more Republican ex-Rep. heading to the pokey. John Sweeney pled guilty to driving while intoxicated, and faces 30 days in Saratoga County jail.

Redistricting: Dave's App (thanks to Dave & Jeff) now has partisan data for Texas and California. There are also a few new features, which you can read more about in Dave's diary. (D)

Meta: Can you believe it's the first anniversary of the Daily Digest? (Pardon me while I laugh sadly at my initial plan to have it be "four or five" bullet points.)

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 3/1
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Tiahrt
He may have been exonerated by the House "Ethics" committee, but he was eviscerated by Common Cause, which the KC Star noted prominently in its story on the issue:
http://primebuzz.kcstar.com/?q...

I have a feeling Moran is going to do surprisingly well in the primary (meaning: win by a surprisingly big margin). But if Tiahrt wins somehow, he'd be vulnerable.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


ARRGH THE SIMILAR NAMES
Trey Grayson, Alan Grayson, Ron Kirk, Paul Kirk, Andy Dillon, Kirk Dillard, Patrick Murphy, Tim Murphy, Tim Johnson, Tim Johnson,...

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

The Morans
Jerry Moran, Jim Moran, Brian Moran,...

Also, Dan and Dale Kildee, but they are legitimately related.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
Jim Moran and Brian Moran are brothers
also, remind me who the non-SD senator Tim Johnson is?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Rep. Tim Johnson (R, IL-15)
Fortunately, he's now calling himself Timothy V. Johnson.

[ Parent ]
Oh, I see
For some reason I've become so accustomed to thinking of him as Timothy rather than Tim that I didn't make the connection.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
John Thune (R)
One of the hottest Senators.

Wonder why the GOP has all the good ones.


[ Parent ]
????
Have you ever seen Brad Ellsworth?

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Ellsworth isn't a Senator yet!
There has to be an election first, man! ;)

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
True
I was thinking of Washington in general. Michael Bennett ain't bad though.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
"Hottest Senators"
There are hot senators? That must be a short list.

[ Parent ]
John Thune
Ew. John Thune looks like Death with a tan. Naked Scott Brown obviously wins for hottest Republican.

Kirsten Gillibrand has actually gotten hotter since she's become a Senator and Maria Cantwell's not bad.

Jon Tester is hot if you're into bears and Sheldon Whitehouse is kinda cute for an older gentleman.

But yes, Senators are not a particularly attractive lot...probably because their average age is 78 or whatever.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Really?
Brown was soooo hairy.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I'll Grant You
A handful are "nice" looking, and perhaps a couple have a bit of a silver fox thing going, but I don't think a single senator is "hot". But hey, it's subjective, and some people (seemingly including much of the DC press corps) seem to have a thing for perma-tan men like Thune, even if you and I find that most peculiar.

[ Parent ]
The House
has a lot of genuinely hot members.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Of course it's over 4 times the size
So yeah, odds are you are likelier to find a Heinrich, a Nye, or a Bono Mack on that side of Capitol Hill.

[ Parent ]
R & R
6 is less than 8 last time I checked. I thought the reason Rasmussen "emphasize[s] the Strong opinions" so as to judge intensity not name recognition. I'll go with Rothenberg but only barely.


It is good to see
how one Republican pollster is calling out another on intellectual garbage.

[ Parent ]
MA-10: Delahunt Retiring?
I'd predict it:
U.S. Rep. William Delahunt blew nearly $560,000 in campaign cash last year - much of it on lavish meals and a family-friendly payroll that includes his ex-wife, son-in-law and daughter - stoking speculation the Quincy Democrat is emptying his war chest and won't seek re-election.

Nickolai Bobrov, who is married to Delahunt's daughter Kara, has raked in $47,732 since landing on the payroll as the congressman's campaign manager in July, including a $10,000 payment that month marked retroactive for "consulting services April-July," according to campaign finance records....

Katharina Delahunt, the congressman's ex-wife, pulled in $48,000 as a receptionist and executive assistant for the campaign, a position she's held full-time since 2005, records show.

Delahunt, 68, also has dished out sizable sums on expensive meals, including more than $3,000 at Quincy's Alba Bar and Grill in the first quarter of 2009, and another $7,000 for a confab at the upscale eatery in July.

All told, Delahunt's campaign committee doled out $558,354 last year, leaving his war chest with less than $570,000, records show. The seven-term congressman raised a paltry $42,000 last year.



I think the Research 2000 IN-Sen poll
Supports my initial tossup rating. Even considering their usual Dem lean.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...


| should say
The SSP eds too. Good call guys.

[ Parent ]
Agreed on the tossup rating
But this much still isn't clear to me: why/how the hell has Hostettler become a genuinely viable statewide candidate, and one who is currently holding a measurable lead over the guy who pasted his nutty ass by double digits not even four years ago? To that end, I'd be curious to see the results broken down by CD.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
Off topic
But in a similar vein. How the hell do RCP have NH-Sen at leans Republican? Tad previous IMO.

[ Parent ]
Has there been a recent NH poll that showed Hodes within 5?
Based on polling data shown at RCP, Ayotte is consistently up between 5 and 10.

But it would not shock me if RCP omitted a poll favorable to Hodes.


[ Parent ]
Is that their cuttoff?
Within 5? Seems a little arbitary. Especially in an open seat, in a blue state and Ayotte well below 50. Hell, 7 points is nothing. Even the ultra pessimistic Charlie Cook has it as a tossup.

[ Parent ]
7 points is not nothing
I'm sure you'd rather be 7 points ahead than 7 points behind.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Obviously
But again, it depends on the rating system I guess.

[ Parent ]
I've got that race as a Tossup-Tilt R
The only reason I have it listed as this is because Ayotte seems to be gaining traction, the current candidate (Gregg) is somewhat popular, and Hodes hasn't caught on fire.  Once he does, he will gain some momentum.  I'm dismissing the polls on this race because NH is famous for being fickle.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
No doubt she is ahead right now
Just rather bold for them to go out on a limb like that.

[ Parent ]
With several polls showing a consistent race
I don't think RCP is out on a limb. Of course, I think this is based on an "if the election were held today" kind of rating.

In addition, with NH's industries, I think their economic situation isn't nearly as bad (their unemployment rate is at about 7%), which is hopeful for Hodes.

But if I were RCP, I wouldn't change the rating until polls start to reflect better feelings in the NH electorate.

I think Hodes will come up, but the hard evidence of such isn't there yet.


[ Parent ]
Suppose we are back to rating definition again


[ Parent ]
At the end
of the day Hostettler would be the best candidate we (the democrats) can hope for. I believe the reason he is outperforming Coats right now is because he has the teabagger vote and I the teabaggers HATE Coats and won't show up for him in November. Once the campaign starts Indies will go in flocks toward Ellsworth if Hostettler is the nominee. Coats will not be hard but Hostettler would be so much easier.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
You are dead on
Many voters haven't been introduced to the Hos', and once they are they will eventually learn that a couple of screws are missing.  I would say that he's a couple of cans shy of a six pack, but he's actually six cans shy of a six pack...he's the plastic that connects the six pack.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
On paper
The IN GOP have a lousy deal with their field. Still, it may not matter consider the environment. But it certainlyisn't anywhere near as bad as some feared when Bayh called it quits. He may even done the party a favor.  

[ Parent ]
No doubt
I was really upset at Bayh after his late announcement, but it's really clear that he was trying to help us. If he would have made the announcement a week earlier Pence or Skillman or possibly even Daniels would have ran. Bayh actually helped us out a lot.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I have said
for a long time that Hos would likely be the nominee. Even though we haven't seen any primary numbers, I know Coats will get knocked down. I met Hos when I was just seven at a conservative gathering (my parents wanted to expose me to every side of the political spectrum) and he really got those people excited. I also met Coats when I was a kid and well all I can say is blah! He is soooo uninspiring and the right hates him for his support of gun control, and not being a complete nut job like Hos. If Coats is the nominee you will probably see many teabaggers staying home.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
and that is plastic
I cut up to save fish from getting caught in.  What a great visual for Hos's electoral chances!

[ Parent ]
Happy Birthday to the Daily Digest!
It's so great to have all that information in one place. Thank you!

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


It is indeed a great thing.
I would endorse the Daily Digest if it was to run for office. Or... something.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Is that like the political version of
"I wanna have [thing]'s babies"?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Hey, sure.
I've also been working on converting "I'd cosponsor that bill" into an innuendo.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
"I'd tap that Representative!"


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
I'd take it behind the middle school ...
... and get it pregnant.

[ Parent ]
Remind me...
which scandal is this from?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
None.
Tracy Jordan, 30 ROCK.

[ Parent ]
only a year?
I cannot believe its only been a year for the digest. I look forward to it everyday, and now cannot imagine my life without it! Thanks SSP!

Im on the other end
I cant believe its been only a year!  This year has gone by so fast politically!

[ Parent ]
Fallon is NOT supporting Narcisse
Narcisse has been talking about running since December. I spoke with Fallon a few weeks ago, and he is definitely not supporting Narcisse. I don't know who he has tried to recruit for the Democratic primary, though.

Yeah, I kind of suspected that
He seems like kind of a loose cannon, reading the description. Is anyone at all supporting Narcisse?

[ Parent ]
It's Happy Hour!
I'm giving a toast to the daily digest that gives us all a lot of enjoyment!  For those of you who are underage, well, clean off the fake id and get yourself some good stuff!

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

Or ask a neighborly SSPer
Im in Uptown Minneapolis if anyone needs some!!!  J/k of course.  Cheers to the Daily Digest!

[ Parent ]
KY-Sen: And I thought the Democrats were petty
Paul's campaign hitting Grayson for platitudes about doing his part as a citizen to help the (then) new President is silly, but the response that Paul was part of an 'pro-choice, anti-Reagan' campaign is downright dumb.

Anti-Reagan. It's the new 'socialist'.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


I really hope the KY-sen primary battle between the repubs
Damages Paul/Grayson enough to enable Conway to win the election.

Its funny, but I see Kentucky as our biggest pickup opportunity right behind Missouri.  Who'd a thunk those two would have such positive signs when people are looking at states like DE and PA having a tossup/lean R race.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


[ Parent ]
It's 3rd for me
I'm feeling better about it the more Paul and Grayson tear at each other, but (hopefully) Conway will still have to fight very, very hard to beat either in this atmosphere.

Hopefully Mongiardo doesn't take any advice from these guys...

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


[ Parent ]
CA-Gov Brown makes it official tomorrow
http://politicalticker.blogs.c...

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

PA-SEN
"I'm not sure voters care much about this kind of process stuff,"

Wow. I know Sestak is more liberal and probably has more support from SSP'ers than Specter, but to simply act as if this is not a big deal is surprising.

According to the article, Sestak's family members "typically make well over twice as much as other staffers", which sounds a lot worse than "much more".

I suggest everyone read the article, this is not something that should simply be swept under the rug.


I'm pulling for Specter
Specter has become a fine Democrat.  I hope he is re-elected.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Specter would become a fine North Korean Communist
if he thought it would help him get reelected.

[ Parent ]
Whatever
Specter switched parties.  Why?  Because the Republicans have gone bat-shit crazy.  Even before Specter left parties, I had a strong admiration for him.  He's a welcomed addition to the Democratic party.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
That cancer website
before he edited it made him to dead to me.  I dont necessarily mind him winning anymore, but eh, Im not rooting for him.  And there are certainly some factors that make me solely , so Im pretty in the middle and ready to root for whomever.

But while I was only 5-6 during the time, I hear Specter was a giant dbag during the Anita HIll hearings.


[ Parent ]
Specter was a vicious bully
in those hearings. It was all a political show because he had helped lead opposition to Judge Bork and faced such a firestorm of protest from Republicans that, had he opposed Thomas, he would have lost the support of Republicans for good and all. In other words, he would have had to switch to the Democrats earlier. And considering that Thomas was confirmed only 52-48, every time he makes a lousy vote, Specter deserves major blame for it.

Now, having said that, let's remember that Antonin Scalia was confirmed 98-0, so there's a lot of blame to go around. But at least there really was no question Scalia was qualified. With Thomas, there was a great deal of question how good a judge he was.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
to paraphrase LBJ
Specter is now our vicious bully.

(doesn't mean I have to like him)


[ Parent ]
Good memory
Specter was a bully in the Anita Hill hearings.  I was in college during these trials, but I remember thinking that Specter was more than a little enraged with Hill.  I never thought about the Bork opposition, but you are probably right.  Thomas has been about the worst judge on the Supreme Court in the last 100 years.


40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
I think that it's a mix
I think he left because both ideological and political reasons. He was getting to liberal for the new Republican Party, but at the same time I don't think he would have switched if he thought he could survive the republican primary. I also think that if he makes it into the next Congress that he will be much more moderate. I am glad I don't live in Pennsylvania, because I don't think I could choose between the two.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
You are right
I've always admired Specter, and I was glad he joined "the dark side" as the Republicans might say.  He's made mistakes in the past (and who hasn't?).  He's aged, he's learned, and now he's a supporter of our Democratic plank.  I'll take him.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Agree, and in fact Sestak has a bad rep as a bad boss......
It's been long known on the Hill that Sestak is a bear to work for.  The demanding military life is something he carries over into his House office, and he's had high staff turnover as a Congressman.

So his staff being underpaid is not surprising, but it raises the possibility of more damaging stories about how Sestak treats "the help."

And throw in the stuff about paying his family big bucks, and it's a really big deal.

I rooted for Sestak early on, and it's good for us that he's waged this challenge because it really has pushed Specter to the left.  I never dreamed Arlen would go all out liberal like he has even with the Sestak challenge, and I'm pleased he has.

I'm now torn who I want to win.  Sestak might very well be damaged, but Specter obviously has problems for the general.  We got a real problem that Pat freakin' Toomey is up in the polls.  November is going to be ugly.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Good points
I'll be voting in the PA primary (almost time to apply for a ballot) and I still haven't decided which one to pick. If I'm honest with myself, I don't think I can forgive Specter for Clarence Thomas. Having said that. . .I don't have any complaints about him since the switch.  

[ Parent ]
It's certainly bad
But voters generally do not care very much about this. This is dickishness, but it's not corruption using government funds or a sex scandal, which are the two things that really sink a candidacy.

In Britain, Labour are improving in the polls, even though our leader was accused of bullying staff members recently. Granted, half the accusations fell apart, but part of it is that people actually like Brown better when he's presented as short-tempered, because they identify with the stress.

Leaving all that aside, I genuinely think it won't affect Sestak's current supporters. They support him because they hate Arlen, and you can't primary an incumbent with a perfect challenger, because there aren't any, so you have to accept a degree of cognitive dissonance.

That said, Sestak does seem to be an arsehole.


[ Parent ]
GA
Handel is from Fulton County (Roswell to be precise) so I don't think there would be any chance she or Smoltz would run because they both live in GA 06 so they'd be running pretty far from their home turf. Also, conspiracy, Democrats have a candidate in GA 09 his name is Mike Freeman. Kind of a long shot to say the least but it's better than nothing.

Ford's out
I have to admit, I'm a little disappointed.  

I really hope it was the LGBT meeting he had
where he got totally pwned that was the difference.  I wont lie, I like Ford, we we certainly need at least ONE AA (and one Hispanic for that matter) in the Senate but Gillibrand is a total fag hag and her Will and Graceness speaks more my gayness than my affirmative actioness.

I was predicting this to myself, he's gotten bad press every step of the way so far.


[ Parent ]
And I certainly cant help but appreciate his rhetoric
in what will be his op-ed in the Times tomorrow, he cites what would be a highly negative primary affecting his decision.  Ok, yeah, highly negative in that many NY constituent groups will be the ones negative towards him, but he makes a legit point.

Still feel bad for the guy, I would have loved to see him as the Senator from TN.  But NY, not on this fag's life.


[ Parent ]
Not saying we don't need more Hispanics, but...
Our DSCC head is Hispanic.  I'm just saying.  We do need more though (come on Cali, NM, anybody)

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic

[ Parent ]
Hopefully in 2012 if DiFi retires
we can get Loretta Sanchez to run.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Isn't Linda supposed to be the more intelligent sister?
http://dir.salon.com/story/pol...

The wikipedia entry seems more cogent - to Loretta's foibles - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L...

In August 2000, Sanchez refused to relocate a political fundraiser she had planned at the Playboy Mansion in California. As a result, Democratic National Committee chairman Joe Andrew cancelled her scheduled speaking role at the Democratic National Convention. Sanchez's address was reinstated just before the convention, when she agreed to relocate her fundraiser to Universal Studios.[10]


[ Parent ]
Loretta is an awesome representative
here in central Orange County, but frankly she is better suited here, especially her vocal support for the Vietnamese community (which is a large constituency). There are those here in CA (especially not from the OC) who see Loretta's Blue Dog membership as a red flag (though she's one blue dog that never "bites" like say Mike Ross or Jim Cooper). Why not state Speaker John Perez? Latino and openly gay? Win-win all around, or someone like state Assemblywoman Fiona Ma (from San Fransisco, need i say more?)

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

[ Parent ]
So you're saying it wasn't idiotic
for Loretta to insist on having a fundraiser at the Playboy mansion?

[ Parent ]
Oh jeez
sorry i meant to reply to californianintexas. late nights can do a lot to you. I apologize for the mix up.

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

[ Parent ]
Now that I think about it
I think I'd like to see a Senator Perez.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
She's in the BDC because

her district is really poor.  It's all about the campaign $$$ for her.  A lot of the BDC members from safe but poor districts do likewise.

There is a need for some kind of regional funding mechanism guaranteeing incumbent Democratic representives some kind of basis level to keep some campaign apparatus going.


[ Parent ]
not quite
The median income in her district is a little over $41k.  I'm not saying this is wealthy, but Anaheim has quite a bit of money.  I'm sure she has no problem raising money at home.  She is a blue dog because she likes positioning herself as a moderate.  There is nothing wrong with that in the OC, but statewide we have so many great dems.  Senator Barbara Lee anyone?? The two Barbaras would make a hell of a team.

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic

[ Parent ]
Please no Loretta Sanchez
A. Northern Californians make for better reps/Senators/everything
B. Loretta Sanchez is a moderate Blue Dog, we can do so much better in California

If we must take a southern Californian, why not Villagrosa?

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic


[ Parent ]
Agreed
But lay off the SoCal bashing, buddy, not all our folks are crappy. The new gay speaker is from SoCal, although Perez isn't exactly what I'd call super-charismatic.

Villaraigosa is mildly douchey, but he'd be a solid liberal vote. I'd certainly rather have him as a senator than governor.

But it's hard to think of a Democrat who could make it through a primary who would be worse than DiFi. Man, Harvey Milk was totally right about her.

And re: the Playboy mansion, hey, whores are constituents, too. Especially in California.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
She kinda is Grace-like
Although I believe the PC term is "fruit fly." And did you notice that once she started speaking out about gay civil rights, she totally go better makeup and hair? Supporting LGBT rights--useful for things beyond just shoring up your base!

And please tell me you only like Ford because he's kinda cute or something, because dude tried to write discrimination into the Constitution. I get that he had to be a conservaDem to win in TN, but there's a difference between taking a position because you have to and actively throwing a beleaguered minority under the bus.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
He's not cute at all.
unless you mean cute as in non-threatening, as in he's considered more of a joke than a legitimate candidate for any office anywhere.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
No
I meant cute in the traditional "I would consider schtupping him" sort of way.  Just wondering why Andrew would like such an obvious douchebag and that was the only reason I could think of....

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Well
you certainly won't find a man with better foot hygiene for miles! :)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
The Hammond Mayor and Lake county
democratic chair just dropped his bid for Senate, leaving Ellsworth the only democrat in the running.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

AZ-Sen
You know it's a bad sign for McCain when even establishment figures start Pullen their support.

(sorry...)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Conservatives are Pullen their support
and Jan is trouble Brewer

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic

[ Parent ]
On Rasmussen and IA-Gov (unrelated points)......
For MD-Sen, the innocent explanation would be Rasmussen just wasn't aware there was an announced candidate and a 2nd potential candidate seriously looking at it.  The cynical explanation is that he knew the named choices would fare worse than Generic R.  Given Scott's recent history, I think the cynical explanation is more accurate.

Regarding Rasmussen's feud with Rothenberg, I have to hit Stu over the head for merely "wondering" how a guy whose name even I don't recognize has so few people declining to state an opinion about him.  Um, Stu, they don't, and it proves Rasmussen's poll is bunk.  And Scotty's defense is bullshit in this instance, as a guy as little-known as Westlake doesn't have anyone holding a strong opinion of him who hasn't personally met him, and even most of those people don't give Westlake a second thought.

Finally, regarding IA-Gov, Jonathan Narcisse's last name fits, he is completely narcissitic.  He is, indeed, a gadfly, and his school board stint was a fluke.  But his provocative personality makes him an ideologically ambiguous Limbaugh/Beck/Hannity/O'Reilly mini-me, and that gets him some publicity in circles of Iowa political junkies.

In sum, Culver can dismiss Narcisse virtually without acknowledging his existence, because Narcisse is a non-factor.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


More NY drama
http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Governor Ratovich? Any chance they impeach him if he refuses to step down?

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


Is New York the new New Jersey
for scandal-plagued governorships?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Eh?
Both NY and NJ go back a long ways for dysfunctional government. same is true of almost everywhere in the Northeast (at least, for Southern New England too...and of course Illinois/Louisiana)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Rasmussen
So, he doesn't poll Wargotz in Maryland but decides to poll Brad Henry in Oklahoma? Is he actually outright mocking us now?

Doesn't poll who?
Who is Wargotz?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
The Republican raising money
And likely their nominee in Maryland.

[ Parent ]
OK, it's really hard to understand
why Rasmussen didn't poll him.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]

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