UT-Sen

That's not terrible for Matheson. His starting point (32%) is 2 points less than where Obama finished (34%). He's also got some good favorable/unfavorable/unknown numbers (45%/27%/28%). He may make a race out of an open seat contest in the future, however it would likely end like OK-Sen 2004.

Still, not bad.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

---

by: trowaman @ Thu Feb 26, 2009 at 20:39:43 PM UTC

Shockingly (!) Obama has a terrible

approval rating in Utah. Can we finally now dispense with the post-partisan BS? It really gives me heartburn.

Meanwhile, further suggestions that Allyson Schwartz isn't running for Senate.

---

by: andgarden @ Thu Feb 26, 2009 at 20:47:56 PM UTC

Not particularly conclusive either way

But Sestak has already given a definite no and Wagner is more often mentioned for governor.

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Feb 26, 2009 at 20:52:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rendell is genuinely supporting Torsella

so that would make it that much harder for her.  

---

by: andgarden @ Thu Feb 26, 2009 at 20:54:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh I agree she is probably leaning against

But who knows.

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Feb 26, 2009 at 20:55:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

ken jennings 2010

n/t

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

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by: doug_tuttle @ Thu Feb 26, 2009 at 20:53:25 PM UTC

What kind of Republican is Djou?

• HI-01: In another district where you might be surprised to know there's an elected Republican, Honolulu city councilor Charles Djou has announced his candidacy for HI-01, which is expected to be vacated by Neil Abercrombie as he goes for governor. Djou claims the endorsement of every Republican in Hawaii's legislature (all 7 of them).

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Feb 26, 2009 at 20:57:00 PM UTC

Abercrom bie is running for Governor?

This is the first I've heard of it.  Good to hear.  He should win easily.  There's really no chance of losing HI-01 even if it's open either.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Feb 26, 2009 at 21:16:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Abercrombie is running for Governor?

apparently he is quietly preparing to announce, the only problem is their is going to be a s***fest and he's going to have run against the Honolulu mayor who has the early advantage. I don't see how Republicans can win this, especially seeing how Obama got 76% of the vote in Hawaii. One trip is enough to doom any Republican. Though HA-01 is is more vulnerable than HA-02 and Lingle might be tempted to run for it in order to set herself up for a likely open seat in 2012, State Senator Colleen Hanabusa will probably run and could actually be favored.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Thu Feb 26, 2009 at 23:06:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

HI-1 (Abercrombie)

Obama killed in that district but Kerry only did win it by 5. If Lingle got in I could see her winning it. Anyone else? I just cant see it. Im sure HI would have gone for just about anu Dem Pres. nominee, last year, by at least 20...but still the margin Obama got is largely because its basically a home state.  

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Fri Feb 27, 2009 at 00:33:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's lean to likely Dem even with Lingle running in HI-01

Obama is always going to be insanely popular in Hawaii.  It's basically a 2nd home state for him.  I suspect that if Lingle ran for HI-01 President Obama would make a campaign trip out there for our HI Governor's race nominee and HI-01 nominee.  That alone would make it almost impossible for any republican to win either.

2012 is also working out good for us since Obama will be on the ballot that year.  So if a Senate seat opens that year it would be nearly impossible to lose as well.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Feb 27, 2009 at 02:55:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hawaii

Unless Obama becomes Bush-esque unpopular i also think he'll always be popular in HI. In some states, even at around a 30% national approval rating, Bush still had average rather than abysmal approval ratings. Hawaii will probably never be the 'western White House' for him due to environmental concerns (the flight to HI rather than IL wouldnt make much of an environmental difference in technical terms but obviously Obama wouldnt want to look in any way hypocritical) but Hawaiians will always look at him as a native son. A problem with Lingle winning, though i havent heard this anywhere else and im just thinking out loud, is maybe HI is the Dem version of Hawaii in federal races. Where they just dont want to send a Republican to Washington because they dont think its best for the state.  

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Fri Feb 27, 2009 at 03:42:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Err

I mean maybe HI is the Dem version of Alaska in federal races

---

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Fri Feb 27, 2009 at 03:43:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hawaii is a machine Dem state

Republicans are occasionally competitive for governor in the sense that they are seen as being independent and outside the system (liberal vs. conservative really doesn't play as much of a role as you would think).  Lingle got elected with sizable Democratic support.  For federal office however, Hawaii is just a really Democratic state and Republicans can't find votes outside of their very small enclaves.  Democrats tend to come home for federal races.

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by: skaje @ Fri Feb 27, 2009 at 07:19:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lingle has endorsed Djou

it would be incredibly awkward for her to get in. Besides, Governors don't run for House seats unless they're at-large.

---

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Fri Feb 27, 2009 at 03:04:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

From a Hawaii resident

Djou is your standard mainstream Hawaii Republican.  Moderate on social issues, very good on the environment, prefers to run on ethics, cutting taxes, and not much else.  He's got the only council seat that leans GOP (Waikiki through Hawaii Kai, the rich part of the island).  He's only 38 years old, is term-limited out of his council seat, doesn't want to primary the Lt. Gov. who's running to replace Lingle, and the only two state senate seats he could possibly run for are the same two that comprise the entire GOP caucus already.

So he's really got nothing else to do but build his name rec for the future on a losing campaign for Congress.

And he will lose, badly.  His council district might be tenable for him, but HI-01 itself is unwinnable for a Republican, including some really Democratic areas of the island.

I'm not certain Abercrombie really wants to run for governor.  He's gotten to a pretty good place in the House, and Honolulu Mayor Hannemann is all but certain to run anyway.

---

by: skaje @ Fri Feb 27, 2009 at 00:15:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

He's "thinking hard"

From November:

In an interview with the Star-Bulletin yesterday, Abercrombie said he has reached the "zenith" of his power in Washington, D.C. He stopped short of declaring his candidacy in 2010. [...]

Abercrombie was quizzed about his gubernatorial ambitions after an Internet rumor surfaced that he had formally announced he would run.

"I think I can make a powerful case that if I should run for governor, I can maximize the leverage of the governor's position in Washington," Abercrombie said.

While Abercrombie said he has not made a formal decision, he said he does not want to serve either in an appointive post in the Obama administration or run for the U.S. Senate.

"I don't have any ambitions further in Washington," he said. "Not with the Obama administration or the Senate."

Asked why he would want to leave Washington when his influence is increasing, Abercrombie said he felt "there would be a vacuum in the governor's mansion."

---

by: James L. @ Fri Feb 27, 2009 at 00:30:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks for the article

missed it back in November.  I can just about guarantee right now that there is a lot of talk going back and forth between Abercrombie, Hannemann, and Hanabusa over who gets to run for governor, who goes for Lt. Gov. (if any of them), and who stays put.  For better or worse, the Hawaii Democratic Party is run by a machine and the machine doesn't want contested primaries.  The only wrench in that plan the past few elections has been Ed Case and I think his star has waned enough that he's not even taken seriously anymore.

My impression of Abercrombie is still that he's least likely to run, as there is a very real possibility he loses the primary to Hannemann (who won't back down, I don't think).

---

by: skaje @ Fri Feb 27, 2009 at 02:21:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Abercrombie

I wonder why hed want to leave the House after only 2 years into Obama's term. Wasnt he a family friend of the Obama's and knows Obama from waaaay back? I wonder why he wouldnt want to serve with him for his whole term.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Fri Feb 27, 2009 at 00:37:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Governor > Congressman any day of the week.

Much more power.  

---

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Fri Feb 27, 2009 at 01:04:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

.

-Roy Cooper needs to run.  I used to tolerate, even support, Heath Shuler, believing him to be an economically liberal, socially conservative Democrat (which I can live with).  But he's become a new Zell Miller, and the idea of him in the Senate makes me gag.  He might actually win, if given a shot at Burr.  We need Roy to run.

-I've given up on challenging Reichert.  He seems to have embedded himself into his district.

-Utah is never going to happen.  I still wonder how LBJ won it in '64.

---

by: Sean Fitzpatrick @ Thu Feb 26, 2009 at 21:12:25 PM UTC

Reichert

52% twice in a row against the same opponent is not entrenching yourself in a district!

Mark Kirk, however . . .

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Thu Feb 26, 2009 at 21:16:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Shuler

Im scratching my head as to why Shuler has been pushing himself so rightward lately. Itd help him in the general, maybe, but the NC Dem base isnt all that moderate. Blacks and white liberals make up a substantial portion. The only way Shuler could win the primary is if he cleans house amongst the remaining white conservative Dems. The kind I suspect Andy Griffith is. But I suspect most of those of his generation have either become independents or Republicans. Maybe Shuler just figures its worth a shot and if he loses he can always just try to regain his seat in 2012 (as itll most likely go GOP in 2010 and he wouldnt have to worry about trying to primary an incumbent). If Shuler had gone to live in TN (where he went to college), after his pro career was over, and represented a conservative district and had the same ideology as he does now, then I can see him winning the Dem primary with relative ease. But NC aint TN.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Thu Feb 26, 2009 at 21:37:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I should add

No way Shuler can win if he only does well with the white conservative Dems. If he just has one other major challenger and they do well amongst the other groups of voters (mainly white liberals and blacks) then he just cant win.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Thu Feb 26, 2009 at 21:39:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Schuler

I don't even mind economically and socially conservative Democrats if they're from conservative districts.  But, you must be a team player.  Schuler has been saying things critical of other Dems and the administration.  I don't like Democrats like that.

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by: sicembears @ Thu Feb 26, 2009 at 22:20:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I really don't think he's running

but his seat probably wouldn't go Republican. Charles Taylro would probably run then and he isn't very popular and never managed to win by much. There are four Democratic State Senators in the dsitrict, and several are very appealing candidates.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Thu Feb 26, 2009 at 23:08:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Asheville

How many of em are in Asheville, though? Thats a city thats pretty different from the rest of the district. A 'liberal oasis' in an otherwise quite conservative area. Its cultural liberalism is one of the reasons im slightly considering moving there in the next few years. If not there then New Hampshire probably.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Fri Feb 27, 2009 at 00:40:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

not jsut asheville, there

are some other areas.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

---

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Fri Feb 27, 2009 at 02:15:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NC Senate 2010: Jim Neal

There is a viable audible in NC if Roy Cooper and Richard Moore don't run. It's not Heath Shuler- it's Jim Neal, who finished second to Senator Kay Hagan in the primary last year.

I took a look at his primary race vs. Kay Hagan-and it wasn't as slam-dunk a race by Hagan as the tally showed:

• Neal was in a dead-heat one month prior to the May 2008 primary (SurveyUSA and Rasmussen.) In April, Kay Hagan's campaign and the DSCC spent about $1M on tv advertising and Neal spent nothing on advertising the entire primary.(The DSCC apparently spent more on Hagan's behalf during the Democratic primary than it has in any Senate primary in history. They obviously didn't view Neal as weak.)

• Neal pulled about 250,000 votes- a bit less than John Edwards and Erskine Bowles did in their primary victories in 1998 and 2002. In addition to Kay Hagan and Neal, there were three other men on the primary ballot.

I followed this race but never read between the lines. I knew that Neal ran a hot campaign all across NC; his FEC filings show he only raised around $400K. I don't know if that means he can't raise money or that he can't raise money when he's running against the party?  He raised a lot of money in 2004 for Wes Clark John Kerry.

I've lived in NC for over 40 years and watched a lot of candidates. Jim Neal would stack up behind Cooper and Moore in terms of money and name recognition. He's got the brains, the moxy and he's an electrifying speaker. He's also a very down-to-earth, sincere fellow whom people like.

A year ago, Kay Hagan was a nobody and deemed "weak" (ask Elizabeth Dole how weak Hagan was.) She did have the DSCC's backing and ran against a very-unpopular Liddy Dole in the most expensive Senate race of 2008-and pulled off the biggest upset in the country. The race wasn't even close. So much for conventional wisdom.

PPP just polled Neal versus Burr a month after they had polled Burr and Heath Shuler. In that time Burr's favorables had risen by 5%.  Nonetheless Neal pulled 33% v. Shuler's 28% against Burr with about 25% undecided in both cases. Neal blows away both Burr and Shuler in the African American community & he polls about 10% higher than Shuler among Democrats.

Shuler legislates like a Republican and that may help in his conservative district and some other rural areas-- but Neal polls superior to him in a one-on-one contest v. Burr him in every one of the metro areas. Folks in the north and west don't necessarily realize that NC is a metro state-- votes are concentrated in three major urban areas. Moreover, Shuler may have a political problem. He got into a spat with the leadership in DC and Politico reported that:

Harry Reid spokesman Jim Manley on Heath Shuler's comment that Reid and Nancy Pelosi "failed" on bipartisanship. (Shuler's a former NFL quarterback for the Redskins.)

Let me get this straight - this is coming from a guy who threw more than twice as many interceptions than touchdowns?

Shuler's big advantage v. Neal is money. He has over $1M in his campaign account. If the DSCC backed Shuler, he'd spin himself in the media and would slaughter Neal, unless Neal had some big dollars to fight back with.

Thirty years ago or less I'd never thought that a gay could win in NC, but then again I didn't think a black could win the presidential primary here either. Fair to assume that the DSCC and the NC Dem leadership still think otherwise- so Neal has a top-down perception problem to overcome.

But when I look at his numbers in the black community, with progressives and all but senior voters - he's strong. He's run a statewide race and Shuler is not well known outside his district. Neither guy is particularly well-known compared to Cooper or Moore.

If neither Cooper nor Moore run, Neal is the strongest candidate right now. I've got a hunch Cooper is too smart to run, Moore's ego may lead him into the race and that Neal would run if he thought he had the resources. He was the only Democrat in this state who felt that Dole was beatable in 2007, was the only candidate who entered the race (and nobody knew who he was...) Everyone including Kay Hagan had dropped out before the DSCC urged her back in the race.

No matter what-- Burr is no Liddy Dole. 2010 is a long way's off. My money says Burr will be tough to tackle in a mid-term election. NC had record turnout in 2008, esp. in the black community, but Obama only beat McCain by 14,000 votes.  

---

by: mcoop @ Tue Mar 03, 2009 at 02:04:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

OH-Sen

Tyrone Yates is not only African American.

Cuyahoga County Commish Peter Lawson Jones is also an African American.

---

by: liberal intellectual @ Thu Feb 26, 2009 at 21:12:35 PM UTC

Has Jones announced?

I thought he was just "considering." Thanks, though; I'd forgotten about him.

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by: Crisitunity @ Thu Feb 26, 2009 at 21:19:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hat Tip to Meteor Blades at Kos,

But John Kerry is funny?

Link

The bit about John McLaughlin and Pat Buchanan at the end was priceless!

---

by: Sean Fitzpatrick @ Thu Feb 26, 2009 at 21:47:38 PM UTC

Nevada's senate race just got a tick easier.

Big Republican fundraiser in Nevada is endorsing Reid for 2010.  http://www.politico.com/blogs/...  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Thu Feb 26, 2009 at 22:41:29 PM UTC

Good

Big difference of course between Reid and Daschle is the latter was only minority leader by 2004. It will be much harder for Nevadans to throw out the majority leader whatever the circumstances.

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Feb 26, 2009 at 22:46:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And they know the Dem Senate majority will be around

With already 59 Dems seats counting Franken who will eventually be seated and a near certain gain of at minimum 2-4 seats in 2010 Reid is Nevada's best hope of power and influence for their state in D.C.  

---

by: ChadInFL @ Thu Feb 26, 2009 at 22:56:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

How about that?

 An actual sane GOPer:

"Nevada needs to understand at this perilous time in our state's history, why would you ever think about getting rid of the majority leader of the U.S. Senate?"

---

by: homerun @ Thu Feb 26, 2009 at 23:23:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Makes sense from our perspective

But turn the tables around.  If republicans had 58 or 59 seats and you lived in Kentucky where McConnell was majority leader would you vote for McConnel or a Democrat?  I'd vote the Democrat.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Fri Feb 27, 2009 at 02:50:28 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well,

you're a partisan anyway.  It's very unlikely you'd ever vote for the Republican.  The independents are more likely to be swayed by it.

---

by: Sean Fitzpatrick @ Fri Feb 27, 2009 at 03:12:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm still waiting

for the NV GOP to actually float a name capable of beating Reid.

In South Dakota they had Thune.  They have no one in Nevada.

---

by: skaje @ Fri Feb 27, 2009 at 00:20:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

You don't think

Dean Heller or Jon Porter could make a serious run?

---

by: DavidNYC @ Fri Feb 27, 2009 at 04:12:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

i'm pretty sure heller

is more interested in the gubernatorial race. And porter lost a lot of political capitol this year and is no longer even popular in his must win, (for a state wide Republican victory), district.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

---

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Fri Feb 27, 2009 at 05:07:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Heller maybe

I still think he'd get trashed outside of rural Nevada.  He's barely shown any ability to lock down his own district, just imagine how he'd do in Vegas and its suburbs.

Porter however got tossed out of office and if he can't win his own district there's no way he gets elected statewide (and I can't imagine anyone who would vote for Titus but wouldn't vote for Reid).

It would be a "serious run" in the way that Mark Kennedy made a serious run against Amy Klobuchar.

---

by: skaje @ Fri Feb 27, 2009 at 07:16:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

"I can't imagine anyone who would vote for Titus but wouldn't vote for Reid"

well sure, if you put it that way.  but this is really a turnout question.  can you imagine someone coming out to vote for obama at the top of the ticket who doesn't come out to vote for reid at the top of the ticket?  who turns out in 2010?  the multi-million dollar question.

obama and reid's success will be together.

---

by: st paul sage @ Fri Feb 27, 2009 at 18:37:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Heller

For a guy who served as NV Sec. of State for a number of years he sure has shown vulnerability in his red district (it almost went Obama, yes, but id still consider it red). Wasnt he originally pro choice? I thought i heard he was. He seems pretty pro-life now. Maybe switching had something to do with any unpopularity.

---

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Sat Feb 28, 2009 at 03:02:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

True

But the Presidential result even in the usually conservative NV-02 was 49 McCain 49 Obama last year.  Even that district is showing promise.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Sun Mar 01, 2009 at 18:24:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

D-3 or R+3 district now?

What was 2004 like?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Mar 02, 2009 at 22:44:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is a good new feature, thanks

---

by: zac @ Fri Feb 27, 2009 at 04:00:45 AM UTC

Cornyn is being a tiny bit previous here methinks

""Right now, I see the landscape as pretty promising," the Texan said.

He identified open seats in Ohio, Missouri and Florida that the party will target and added that "unexpected opportunities" to gain Senate seats may arise in New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Arkansas, Colorado, Nevada, and California."

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp...

Good luck with that Big John.

---

by: conspiracy @ Fri Feb 27, 2009 at 18:48:50 PM UTC

so wait

he's expecting for tough fight in seats he needs to defends and isn't expecting to be competitive in seats he needs to pick up?

---

by: Andrew @ Fri Feb 27, 2009 at 19:39:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I have no idea

More nonsene from him on Franken/Coleman:

"The Democrats are up to their old tricks in Minnesota. The Land of Ten Thousand Lakes now has Ten Thousand lawyers trying to steal this election for Al Franken."

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

---

by: conspiracy @ Fri Feb 27, 2009 at 19:46:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rephrase, for equal failness

"The Republicans are up to their old tricks in Minnesota.  The Land of Ten Thousand Lakes now has Ten Thousand lawyers trying to steal this election for Norm Coleman."

By the way, Big John, your party is full of lawyers too.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Fri Feb 27, 2009 at 20:46:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good luck beating Boxer, buddy!

If even "moderates" like Bill Jones can't beat her (and that was in a GOP-friendly year) then good luck trying to beat her with Chuck DeBore. If you think he can beat her, I got a Golden Gate Bridge to sell you!

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Fri Feb 27, 2009 at 19:59:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]