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DE-Sen, DE-AL: New Polling from Research 2000 & Rasmussen

by: DavidNYC

Sun Feb 28, 2010 at 11:41 PM EST


Research 2000 for Daily Kos (2/22-24, likely voters, 10/12/09-10/14/09 in parens):

Chris Coons (D): 35 (39)
Mike Castle (R): 53 (51)
Undecided: 12 (10)

Chris Coons (D): 47
Christine O'Donnell (R): 31
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±4%)

Rasmussen (2/22, likely voters, 1/25 in parens)

Chris Coons (D): 32 (27)
Mike Castle (R): 53 (56)
Other: 8 (5)
Undecided: 8 (13)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Pretty similar numbers from both firms, though interestingly, Ras has Coons improving a bit while Research 2000 (albeit over a much longer timeframe) sees him dropping somewhat. R2K gives Coons 52-25 favorables, while Rasmussen has him much worse off, at 43-35 - but both show the same number of folks who have no opinion of the man. And both outfits also have Castle with essentially the same favorables, 65-30 (Ras) and 65-32 (R2K).

Christine O'Donnell, incidentally, is a teabagger who took 35% against Joe Biden in 2008. She also sought the privilege of getting slaughtered by Tom Carper in 2006, but scraped together a pathetic 17% in the GOP primary. She's only raised about $20K this cycle, so I tend to doubt she'll have much of an impact, though I guess we can always hope.

And as for Delaware's at-large House seat (which Rasmussen apparently did not poll):

John Carney (D): 46 (44)
Charlie Copeland (R): 29 (21)
Undecided: 25 (35)

John Carney (D): 50
Fred Cullis (R): 26
Undecided: 24

John Carney (D): 45
Ferris Wharton (R): 35
Undecided: 20
(MoE: ±4%)

Right now, I'd rather be John Carney than any of the Republicans, but there are only two ways to run for office: unopposed, and scared - and Carney ain't unopposed.

DavidNYC :: DE-Sen, DE-AL: New Polling from Research 2000 & Rasmussen
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I don't think O'Donnell's much of a factor here...
I think even the Delaware teabagger crowd (which may very well be composed of 17% of the state's GOP electorate) realizes O'Donnell's a surefire loser, while Castle's a pretty solid bet to turn this seat red. If she continues with a bid here, I suspect she has a ceiling of about 20% against Castle. She's not even a very exciting teabagger at that.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Do
you remember when a birther got in a shouting match with Castle about Obama, and everyone in the room was cheering her on. I'm not saying O'Donnell stands much of a chance of beating Castle, but don't write her off.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
who the heck are Copeland, Ferris and Wharton? (sounds like a law firm, doesn't it?)
seriously though, who are these Repubs running against Carney? are they serious contenders, like county officeholders or state legislators or something, or just some rich business guys with big egos and cash to burn?


"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere."

- MLK Jr, Letter from Birmingham Jail


did some googling...
Wharton looks formidable. Famous Delaware super-prosecutor, nearly beat Beau Biden in the 2006 AG race. Seems like he kinda has the same law-enforcement hero halo going on as Rep. Reichart in WA-8, because like Reichart he led a team that busted a famous serial killer.

If Wharton's running and has national money behind him, this race could turn into a pretty competitive one. I guess we shall see.

"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere."

- MLK Jr, Letter from Birmingham Jail


[ Parent ]
Cullis is the only one of the three actually running
he's a Generic Republican Businessman type, but he's also the leading unknown in a pack of unknowns (see also Rose Izzo, Glenn Urquhart, and Kevin Lynn Wade).

Charlie Copeland is a former State Senator who ran for Lt. Governor in 2008 (lost 61-39). He was considered Castle's heir apparent for a while, but his star seems to have faded.

Ferris Wharton was already covered. He'd be the only one that could give Carney any trouble, but I don't think he could beat Carney, who is a much more experienced campaigner than Beau was in 2006.


[ Parent ]
LMAO at Ras not polling DE-AL.
Funny, they made sure to poll ND.

hopefully the few here who still defend him
Will stop because he is clearly a tool and his entire polling firm is slowly becoming a wing of the GOP

[ Parent ]
My sentiments exactly
SD-AL too.

[ Parent ]
Coons vs Castle
Adam B's dkos post last Friday which released these numbers also included a great write-up making sound suggestions on how Coons ought to run against Castle.
Coons has over 8 months to chip away at Castle's 65% favorable rating.
And that's the tone Coons should adopt, especially given Delaware's genteel political traditions (the "Delaware Way.")  He ought to demonstrate due respect for Rep. Castle and his decades of service to the First State, but then pivot: a vote for Mike Castle isn't just a vote for Mike Castle -- it's a vote to put Mitch McConnell in charge of the Senate and folks like Tom Coburn, Jim DeMint and David Vitter in positions of power over the President's agenda.  In a state that still holds a strongly favorable opinion of President Obama (59%-36%), it's a message which will resonate.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...

But it's kind of bothersome
That Castle has a higher approval rating than Obama.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
It doesn't surprise me
Castle has been in Delaware politics for 30+ years, while Obama has been President for a little over 1 year.  Castle has a long track record within the state, and he's also has a moderate appeal that will attract the local voters.


40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
That record is a blessing and a curse.
Let's hope Coons can beat Castle over the head with that record.

There's got to be a good one in there somewhere. What about the bankruptcy law changes in 2005? Nothing like sticking up for credit card companies to get you elected these days.


[ Parent ]
In Delaware,
Sticking up for credit card companies is a good idea.

[ Parent ]
Yup
Biden D-MBNA was no joke.

[ Parent ]
It might have been okay the few last years.
Now I'm not so sure.

[ Parent ]
I do wonder ...
... what Joe Biden's favorables reamin in Delaware, because I imagine he's an asset in this race.

[ Parent ]
I have no idea...
what you mean by this.

Right now, I'd rather be John Carney than any of the Republicans, but there are only two ways to run for office: unopposed, and scared - and Carney ain't unopposed.

Um, I think most good politicians don't run unopposed or scared, so I'm really not understanding that line.  Unless you're playing some 11-dimensional chess I'm not getting.


I assume...
I assume he is referring to the adage that regardless of polling, run a campaign as if you are down.  You don't want to have a candidate get complacent with an early lead (see Coakley, Martha).

[ Parent ]
It's folk wisdom, son
And it's checkers, not chess. Always be running as though you're 20 points down in the polls.

[ Parent ]
AR Sen
Halter will challenge Lincoln in the primary

this problem is starting to run a bit rampant
Make a diary, post it in the Daily Digest from yesterday (people like me check nearly every new comment always) wait for the new Digest today if it's missed in there, or wait for a thread because that's big news.

No more off topic news updates EVER!!!  (Channeling mommy dearest there)

(Now I'm gonna be a douche and be glad you broke the rules so I can read about it before my break is over!)


[ Parent ]
Something kind of funny on this...
That some of the same people who are very relieved over the Bobby Bright poll and assuming Bright is now safe are assuming Coons can pull an upset against Castle, even though the numbers are about the same.

I say - I wouldn't call either Bright or Castle safe yet.  


I didn't see many claims
Bright was safe. Just that it was encouraging.

[ Parent ]
No politician with a live opponent running for 'eir office is safe
But the point was that Bobby Bright was a lot less vulnerable than a lot of us had expected.

(Though personally I expected his style to lead to naturally high poll numbers...)

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]

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