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4Q House Fundraising Reports Roundup

by: James L.

Thu Feb 18, 2010 at 9:09 PM EST


We were a bit delayed in getting this chart out, but here it is -- a roundup of all the noteworthy fourth quarter fundraising numbers for House incumbents and challengers. (3Q numbers are here.)

James L. :: 4Q House Fundraising Reports Roundup
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4Q House Fundraising Reports Roundup | 54 comments
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FL-08: Grayson is a machine! is any of that self-funding?

FL-10: Charlie Justice, you have a cool name and an opponent who can't raise money or is ready to bust a surprise retirement announcement, but that's not an excuse for this.

FL-22: Allen West is starting to frighten me...

IL-10: Ugh, BOB DOLD's fundraising numbers are also bothering me. If we can't pick up this seat against a conservative Republican opponent, the Democratic Party is really not doing well at all.

RI-01: John Loughlin is...not really that great. Which is good because the last thing I need is my own district going red.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

Loughlin's been using direct mail to fundraise
Which is why his numbers are better than the usual obscure State Rep in the wrong district, but also why he's burned over half the money he's raised.
[ Parent ]
Wrong district?
He lives in RI-01...but he is certainly a LOL candidate. After Scott Brown I don't take anything for granted but Loughlin really doesn't make me lose sleep at night.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
"wrong" from the partisan point of view
Like a Dem state rep running in Oklahoma.
[ Parent ]
Ah, I see.
Unless he posed naked for Cosmo in law school, you're right, he's not winning.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
netroots baby
The base loves us some Grayson.
In all seriousness, I would love to see how much of that was from out of state.
$523,883 from Act Blue alone.

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic
[ Parent ]
Nothing particularly scary there
Encouraging - Bright, Giffords, Bera, Hulburd, McNerney, Pougnet, Himes, Chris Murphy, Kosmas, Hanabusa, Minnick, Goyle, Skelton, Schauer, Kissell, Shuler, CSP, Massa, Driehaus, Brooks, Boccieri, Space, Dahlkemper, Kanjorsji/O'Brien, Callahan, Davis, Herron, Chet, Ciro, DelBene, Kind, Kagen.

Disappointing - Justice, Lori Edwards, Craft.

Delahunt may be retiring. Maybe Rahall?

 

Rahall is running again
The filing deadline in West Virginia has already passed. He's got enough money on hand that he doesn't need to fundraise constantly, and his biggest challenger is a former state Supreme Court Justice who was voted out of office after having voted to overturn a judgment against Don Blankenship's energy company. In a complete coincidence, he took a trip to the French Riviera with Blankenship before the decision.
[ Parent ]
Oh yes
I remember now.
[ Parent ]
SC-02. being a douchebag sure paid off for Joe Wilson

And Alan Grayson

[ Parent ]
Troll comment

[ Parent ]
I think that was an attempt at humor
Frankly GOPVOTER is more than half right.
[ Parent ]
Absolutely

[ Parent ]
Frankly I
agree with GOPVOTER, and if all republicans were more like GOPVOTER then the country would be a lot better. Although sadly none of them would make it through a primary.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Thank you
You're right though. I would never survive a primary. I share the same views as them, but I am too understanding of other sides of an issue to win a primary today.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, that would make you able to pass bipartisan legislation
on common concerns. Heaven forfend we have any of that! And the sad thing is that rabid partisans on both the right and left feel the same way about bipartisanship.

It's just that right now, it seems clear that rabid partisanship has a much stronger constituency in the GOP than the Democratic Party. From where I stand, I sometimes wonder what ideology the Democratic Party really stands for, and I think the lack of a clear ideology can damage the party's candidates in the minds of voters who may prefer Republicans who strongly advocate even points of view they disagree with. I wonder what your take on this is, from your standpoint. But in any case, I think that bipartisanship can be a great thing when it's based on common interests and a belief that people of different parties can share more as Americans than divides them as members of competing parties.

But lest I get off on too much of a tangent, part of how I'm thinking about the 2010 elections is that it may be a choice between a party whose ideology many voters don't like (the Republicans), a party that voters are unsure what it stands for, given somewhat of a disconnect between statements and actions (the Democrats), actions by rabid right-wing purists that damage Republicans' chances, and questions in the voters' minds on which party is more ineffective in improving their lives. I hope some positive action by Congress changes the equation a little by November, but either way, it'll be fun(?) and interesting to watch the effects of the Tea Party folks and see to what extent they mitigate any frustration over the infighting and lack of greater effectiveness among the Democrats.  

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Thirded


My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
He's got a point....
...giving red meat to the partisans is never bad for fundraising no matter which party and usually no matter how offensive it is to the other side.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...
[ Parent ]
It's the MoveOn model
Pisses me off, personally. But it's good politics.  
[ Parent ]
GOPVoter's comment was fine
And actually pretty funny. Everyone knows this is a progressive site, and we'll tolerate shit from liberals that we simply won't from conservatives. But somehow GOPVoter hasn't been driven crazy by us, and at the same time has resisted the urge to trash Dems on this site - that's pretty admirable. S/he's no troll.
[ Parent ]
He
Honestly, the people here are some of the nicest Democrats I've ever met on the internet. Red State will drive me crazy before ya'll do.  
[ Parent ]
I started on Smirking Chimp
Then moved to Kos, MyDD and OpenLeft. I always gravitate back here for the same reason as you. I wouldn't care, I'm quite left of center myself but I just get frustrated with the lack of understanding of politcal realities at those places.
[ Parent ]
If there were more Republicans like GOPVoter
The United States would be a nice place.  I admire my friends like GOPVoter and InRepublican who can share dialogue in an unoffensive way.  I think both GOPVoter and InRepublican have set a high standard for opposition with the mainstream Democrats on this site.  I really appreciate it.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Kyle too
Until Teddy's death made him flip out somewhat.
[ Parent ]
That was too bad
I almost always liked interacting with him -- but like we've said, something about the Kennedys still makes some conservatives go 'round the bend.
[ Parent ]
I have actually thought the same thing before.
After Grayson's comments got publicized someone called my congressman's office and said something like "You liberals are all going to hell".  Now, while I agree with Grayson, his comments pissed off a bunch of people and brought a lot of money his way.  Same playbook as Bachmann and Wilson.  
[ Parent ]
And his opponent
Rob Miller has almost $1.7million CoH, which is a LOT for a challenger.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
Well of course
after Joe Wilson screamed "You Lie!" everyone zoomed onto ActBlue and donated to Rob Miller. Just hope Rob Miller is still raising money after that night.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
This money is all from after the immediate aftermath of "You lie!"
So yes, Miller is still raising a ton, but Wilson's raising much more.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
I misread the exact numbers a bit
Miller's showing he's still raising quite a bit, but "ton" was the wrong word.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Delahunt
is MA-10, not MA-01.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Seals is at a COH disadvantage,
which is not good.

I imagine much of that is people
Holding back because he was a two-time loser. Now he is the nominee it shouldn't be easier.
[ Parent ]
Should be easier

[ Parent ]
The reports for Illinois were three weeks before the primary
So it's entirely possible that Dold, Seals, or both have been drained of cash from last-minute expenditures.
[ Parent ]
Good point

[ Parent ]
Russ Carnahan vulnerable?
I didn't know the GOP was targeting his district. His opponent raised $176k and is listed as a 'Young Gun', so I guess that's worth noticing.
I thought:
Carnahan had the safest district of all the Missouri House members. After all, it is Dick Gephardt's old seat.
[ Parent ]
It's not extremely safe
It's fairly moderate, at D+7, so it's not completely out of reach. Carnahan actually had a somewhat close race in the 2004 election.
[ Parent ]
No way...
by PVI anyway, he's tied with Sam Graves for the swingiest district. (Which at D/R +7 isn't saying much)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I'm not too scared for Carnahan
His name is enough to get elected in any climate. Plus, his sister is on the top of the ticket, which is sure to get the base out regardless. Plus, his district (which is partly St. Louis and mostly suburbs) has the college town of Clayton which should help the GOTV.

BTW, Emanuel Cleaver and Lacy Clay both have more Democratic seats (Clay, by far, has the safest).

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

[ Parent ]
Dems ahead of opponents in GOP districts
According to this list:

Ami Bera (CA-03), who continues to kick ass.

John Carney (DE-AL), in an easy pickup.

Tom Hayhurst (IN-03), who had a decent outing, but the real story here is the continued patheticness of Mark Souder.  An entrenched incumbent who's so bad at fundraising that his opponent can beat his total haul in a single decent quarter of fundraising?  I continue to believe that this is the sleeper race of 2010.  Voters here love them some Tom Hayhurst, and Souder looks to be asleep at the job again.

Raj Goyle (KS-04), who's an excellent candidate and has totally lived up to the hype, but whom I continue to believe is too liberal and too ethnic to win a dark-red district like this one.

Doug Pike and Manan Trivedi (PA-06), but these numbers are deceptive: Pike has lots of money but no support, Trivedi has lots of support but no money, neither one is fundraising very well right now, and Gerlach is going to rev up the machine again.

John Callahan (PA-15), in a very impressive performance.

Susan DelBene (WA-08), in a similarly impressive performance.

Honorable mention goes to Roy Herron (TN-08), who's leading his Republican opponent in an R-leaning Dem open seat.

Additional note: there's a surprising race going on in the fairly-red MD-06, where newscaster Casey Clark outraised incumbent Republican Roscoe Bartlett.  Bartlett still has a lot more money on hand, though.

And finally, a question: where did all of Alan Mollohan's money go?

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

My prediction:
Bera, Carney, Callahan, and DelBene win their seats.  Goyle and Hayhurst are performing admirably, but those seats may be out of heir reach.  The opposite is true in PA-06: we may have a shot even though both our candidates are pretty pathetic.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
Joshua Segall, also
Segall overperformed Obama by about 4% last year, which was almost enough to beat Mike Rogers, who underperformed even in his home base, Calhoun County (by 4%, natch) . One needs about a 6.5 to 7.5% Obama overperformance to win here, which is certainly not impossible in the district adjacent to Bobby Bright's, who did about twice that.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
I like Segall
But we just don't have the money to spend on long-shot challenger's races in red districts this cycle.  Segall will be left with no help just like he was last cycle, only in a more Republican year.  I don't think he makes it this time.

Reason would dictate that Hayhurst is in a similar situation, but the difference is that Hayhurst's opponent is pathetically inept and can't raise money, which is what gives Hayhurst a shot in the first place.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
Another cool thing about Hayhurst
He apparently linked my comment about his campaign from his press page.  So someone at Hayhurst Central reads SSP.  Woo!

(I swear I've never met the guy, nor do I likely know anyone who's met him.  I'm not involved in Democratic politics here at all, and I live in a completely different district.)

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
The 4th column header says 3Q raised
that is supposed to be 4Q raised - right?
Howard Berman (CA) raised $892K!!
was looking through other filings and came across Berman's in CA --- he pulled in $892k this quarter.  Quite the hall for a safe incumbent...  
NH-02: What's with Katrina Swett's numbers?
Why is it 0 in 4Q, 825 CoH, and 0 in CTD?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
She had money left over from 2008
when she considered running for the Senate, raised a bunch of money, then deferred to Jeanne Shaheen.
[ Parent ]
Interesting information
PA-11 needs too some help

I would include in the Frontline:

ND-AL: Pomeroy
SD-AL: Herseth-Sandlin
TX-17: Edwards
MO-04: Skelton
SC-05: Spratt
KY-06: Chandler
NY-19: Hall
TN-04: Davis
PA-08: Murphy
MA-10: Delahunt
NY-01: Bishop
OH-13: Sutton

And I would include in the RTW:

PA-12: Singel and Hafer
AZ-03: Gordon
WA-03: Pridemore and/or Heck
AR-01: Bryles
AR-02: Elliot
LA-03: Sanginetty
FL-25: Garcia
PA-06: Pike

WA-3
What's the story with WA-3? It's an open seat toss-up in an district with a PVI of 0 and there is no democratic numbers posted. What's the bench like in this district?
Baird announced his retirement in December
Not much time for his prospective replacements to raise money.
[ Parent ]
4Q House Fundraising Reports Roundup | 54 comments

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