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3Q House Fundraising Reports Roundup

by: James L.

Sat Oct 17, 2009 at 4:06 AM EDT


As promised, our team of researchers over at SSP Labs have culled all of the noteworthy third quarter fundraising numbers for 2010's hot (and not-so-hot) House races.

Here's our full chart, but if you happen to catch something that we missed, please let us know in the comments. (2Q numbers are here.)

An asterisk (*) indicates that the amount raised includes a substantial candidate self-donation (as opposed to loans, which we as a rule do not include in the "raised" column). "YG" refers to the NRCC's Young Guns initiative -- the GOP's version of "Red to Blue".

Normally I rattle off a list of observations and offer some general number crunching, but I'll leave that up to you this time. Enjoy.
James L. :: 3Q House Fundraising Reports Roundup
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3Q House Fundraising Reports Roundup | 68 comments
IN-03
Tom Hayhurst raised $93,596, a respectable haul for someone who only got in the race six weeks before the filing deadline.

His opponent, Republican incumbent Mark Souder, raised a lot more: $227,300.  But for some reason I don't understand, Souder's been burning through that money like old newspaper, and he's only got half of it left.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

New Mexico
You have Teague and Pearce listed with exactly the same numbers across the board.  Surely that can't be right...

And in NM-03, it's a relief to learn that Ron Paul affiliate and teabagger Adam Kokesh, an antiwar Republican, raised only $104,075 (and burned through nearly three-quarters of it), while the incumbent, Ben Lujan, raised 384,595.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

NM-03 is safe
This is as safe a district as you can find in the SW.  Northern NM might not even vote for Jesus if he ran on the R ticket.

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic
[ Parent ]
Haha
I think if Jesus ran for Congress as a Republican, I'd vote for him.  
[ Parent ]
Virginia
VA-01: Rob Wittman raised $161k with $298k on hand. He has two Democratic opponents. Krystal Ball (no, seriously), a software developer, raised $194k with $206k on hand. Scott Robinson, a retired Army Colonel, raised $173k with $139k on hand.

VA-02: Two other reports for Republicans, not that they'll get anywhere. Ed Maulbeck raised $10k with $22k on hand. Chuck Smith, my favorite joke candidate, raised a whopping $1,355.00 with $582.35 left.

VA-04: Shame we have no bench here. Forbes only raised $51k this period with $161k on hand.

VA-05: Perriello's current pipsqueak opponents will be no match for Robert Hurt, it seems. Albemarle County Supervisor Kenneth Boyd raised $11k and spent nothing, while Laurence Verga, a real estate investor and "Constitonalist", gave himself $50k but burned through all of it (paid half of it back to himself and spent most of the rest), leaving him with $5k on hand. Incidentally, Bradley Rees, one of the pipsqueaks that hasn't reported, has threatened to run as an independent if the NRCC makes Hurt the anointed candidate. He probably wouldn't get more than 1-2% of the vote, but every vote siphoned from the Republican would help.

VA-07: Cantor raised $370k with $920k on hand. His opponent, Charlie Diradour, loaned himself some money, but only raised $7,515, with $61k on hand.

VA-09: Boucher is battening down the hatches in case Terry Kilgore or another serious Republican runs against him. He raised $207k, and has a whopping $1.7 million on hand.

VA-11: Repeat challenger Keith Fimian raised $234k (plus a $50k loan) ending up with $258k on hand.

Seems like loaning yourself money is an easy way to stuff your campaign account
though, granted, it is in fact perfectly legitimate and reasonable way of doing so, so looking at it that way, it's a "cheap" way that "really does count".

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
cash on hand change?
it would be cool to see the cash on hand changes.  it seems like some people are really spending a lot more than others at this point.  
Sure
Just take a look at the 2Q roundup.
[ Parent ]
Other missed ones
AZ-08: Giffords' only current opponent, Jesse Kelly, ramped up his campaign (relatively speaking), raising $115k with $120k on hand.

NC-08: Republican businessman Tim D'Annunzio loaned himself $300k, raised $12k, and ended up with $260k on hand.

NY-13: Republican Michael Allegretti raised $189k with $155k on hand.

OH-16: Republican businessman Jim Renacci (what is with all these Italian Republicans?) raised $204k with $202k on hand.

OH-18: Bunch of third-tier Republican candidates here: '08 nom Fred Dailey raised $45k with $71k on hand, former magistrate Jeannette Moll raised $31k with $70k on hand, and State Sen. Bob Gibbs raised $115k with $113k on hand.

PA-06: Republican businessman Steven Welch loaned himself $500k, raised $60k, and ended up with $511k on hand.

RI-02: Jim Langevin raised $175k with $367k on hand; primary challenger Elizabeth Dennigan raised $14k, loaned herself $100k, and ended up with $109k on hand.

: )
To be into politics so much that I actually enjoy going through quarterly Congressional fudnrasing numbers just makes me even happier.
makes me feel like
An uber geek supreme....  Instead of enjoying the buzz I got at my cousins first basketball game at the U of Minn I'm pissed at my blackberry bc it doesn't show the charts with the totals!  Can't wait to get home and check it out
[ Parent ]
NY-01
My rep (Tim Bishop) is going to have to step it up this time around with a self funder going against him.  He's won by large margins the last 2 times around, but his district is the definition of 51/49.

29/D/Male/NY-01
Incumbents outraised by challengers:
Democratic Incumbents outraised:
AR-02, MO-03, NC-08, NM-02, NY-01, NY-19, OH-15, PA-12, TN-04, TN-08, VA-02

Republican Incumbents outraised:
CA-03, CA-50, FL-10, MO-08, PA-15, TX-10, WA-08

Democratic Open Seats Outraised:
HI-01

Republican Open Seats Outraised:
IL-10, KS-04, PA-06

Initial Thoughts:
Impressive numbers from Tarryl Clark (MN-06), Ami Berra (CA-03), Hamos (IL-10), Tom White (NE-02), Ann Kuster (NH-02), Doug Pike (PA-06), Bryan Lentz (PA-07), John Callahan (PA-15).  I like our chances to consolidate our support before redistricting this season.  I think Democrats suffered third quarter, poor messaging on health care and as a result, a lot of bad media.  To see decent numbers out of most our candidates is very encouraging.  I think we weathered the storm.  

I forgot to add:
A HUGE thank you to James for all your hard work, I know compiling information for 40-50 races alone takes a night's worth of work!  What a trooper, I tip my hat to you sir!
[ Parent ]
Thanks!
I would have had it up earlier, but pesky schoolwork got in the way.
[ Parent ]
I second the huge thanks
Thanks so very much, James, for your tremendous efforts!  
[ Parent ]
Before I forget
A tip of the cap must be given to DavidNYC, who helped shoulder some of the heavy-lifting on this one.
[ Parent ]
PA-12 doesn't really count
William Russell, on his second or third run for Murtha's seat, uses the uber-questionable BMW direct marketing to fundraise.

Also, half of Rigell's haul in VA-02 was either loans or self-funding.  

[ Parent ]
HI-01
It feels strange talking about any federal seat in Hawaii being "in play" for the GOP, especially after Democrats' crushing wins in the last few cycles. Of course, the Hawaii GOP would be hard-pressed to find a single viable candidate other than Charles Djou.  
[ Parent ]
Djou is not a fundraising powerhouse, either
It's taken him two years to build up that $267,000 warchest. He formed an exploratory committee back in the end of 2007, ended up not running, and in that those two years, he's raised a total of about $310,000. Hanabusa could probably wipe that advantage out in the fourth quarter alone.
[ Parent ]
Well that says a lot about the state of the Hawaii GOP!
Even their most viable candidate for the seat has had fundraising struggles.

Thanks for the info; I wasn't aware of that.  

[ Parent ]
Georgia races
I commented on this late last night: http://www.swingstateproject.c...

Basically, no one seems to be putting in a big challenge to Marshall and Barrow.  GA-02 may deserve watchlist considerations, but I'm not worried.  Linder's fundraising in GA-07 is really curious.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

GA-7
Why fundraise if you haven't got a shot in hell of loosing?
[ Parent ]
Because your shot in hell of losing gets a lot bigger down the road.
Gwinnett (and Newton) are rapidly shifting from under the Republicans.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Also...
Phil Gingrey and Paul Broun are far more safe than Linder (at least in the general; Broun still has some primary issues) and both are raising money like crazy.  Plus, even if you're safe, you can still raise money in your leadership PAC to help other members and build connections and influence.  Linder isn't doing that, either.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Meh
fundraising sucks, it isnt something Id ever look forward to.  While, as you state above, Linder is in a district shifting away from him, it sure will take quite a bit longer for a district that went 20% for McCain to become a seat where an entrenched incumbent may lose.  If I were him, Id say to hell with calling random people and begging for money.
[ Parent ]
True, but...
The problem for Linder is that the part of his district he lives in his growing very fast and getting very diverse.  The exurban and rural (re: very Republican) parts are farther away.  And suring (shoring?  Anyone know?) up the district for him will be somewhat difficult as Paul Broun's district will need more area while Hank Johnson's district can't take up any more Democratic areas.  Plus, parts of Tom Price's district (Sandy Springs and Northern Dekalb County) are starting to get shaky.  It's difficult to foresee where they can go for much longer.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Shoring
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Thanks
One of those words you use so much in conversation (or at least every now and then) but never learned how to spell.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Ok
"Plus, even if you're safe, you can still raise money in your leadership PAC to help other members and build connections and influence.  Linder isn't doing that, either."

Linder's been in the House since 1993, he's got plenty of connections and influence compared to Gingery or Broun. Also, remember that Linder is the main Congressman associated with the FairTax, which further gives him credibility with his GOP colleagues.

I can understand what you're saying about parts of his district turning blue, but I think for now it's an overstatement. Linder is not going anywhere.

[ Parent ]
NOOOOOOOOO!!!!
Is Ed Case really our only candidate in HI-01? Please god/James say it ain't so. We have to have someone better than Case.
State Sen. Colleen Hanabusa
she entered the race this month so hasn't had to file any reports yet.
[ Parent ]
Hanabusa is a great choice
The netroots need to get involved here because a) Ed Case is completely unacceptable and b) Hanabusa is a bonafide progressive.
[ Parent ]
Agreed
If that's what the primary comes down to we've got to get involved. Case will be a huge headache in a seat that we don't need to deal with that. We've got a good candidate, preventative primaries are cheaper than unseating.  
[ Parent ]
If Case were running in a >R+5 district
I'd be pleased. However, there's no excuse for someone of his stripe in a D+11 district, especially the one where our President was born (or was it HI-2?)
[ Parent ]
He was born in what is now HI-01
Although back then Hawaii only had one at-large congressional district, represented in the House by one Daniel Inouye.  
[ Parent ]
I have a feeling
the netroots wont even need to get involved and we'll able to save our firepower for other seats.  Hannabusa should hopefully wipe the floor with Case all on her own.
[ Parent ]
The numbers out of CA-44 make me sick
Why is not one talking about this race!?!?  This could be a major pick-up if someone actually talked about it!!!  Orange county is slowly turning purple, and being forced to have a congressman with integrity such as Bill Hedrick as opposed to corrupt as shit Ken Calvert would at least change southern orange county's voting habits somewhat.  I'll admit I haven't donated any money to Hendricks campaign yet, but merely because I have no credit card/money being in college.

I really urge anyone who is reading this to donate at least something to this race.  Obama won this district, and I'd hate to see it stay red congressionaly.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

Im of the mind that
CA-44 wont be that close in 2010.

A. There wont be Obama at the top of the ticket.
B. Calvert knows he's on shaky ground after barely losing randomly and will actually be campaigning this time around.  He'll act like an endangered incumbent this time and wont be caught by surprise.

Were there any 2006 scares for the GOP where they managed to get their shit together for 2008?

[ Parent ]
Mark Souder. eom


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
That's the main one to come to mind
Others were seats with damaged incumbents that retired in 2008 (WY-AL, NY-26) or oddball races like NE-03 from 2006 that shouldn't have been competitive to begin with and reverted back to their usual profile in 2008.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Julie Hamos outraised DS!!!!!!!!!

Didn't Footlik as well? eom

[ Parent ]
Footlik did for one quarter, the early primary didn't give him much of a chance.
And IIRC a good portion of it was self funding.  
[ Parent ]
Observations
Bright and Griffith might end up being ok. Vic Snyder will be fine when he starts. Ami Bera is one to watch. Ditto Steve Pougnet and Raj Goyle. Jerry McNerney looks safe. Bill Hedrick, Charlie Justice, Beth Krom, Lori Edwards, Chris Craft and Paula Flowers are very disappointing. Van Tran and Charles Djou have been over-hyped. Looks like an opportunity exists to avoid another Francine Busby debacle. Dan Seals has a fight on his hands. FL-22 is looking expensive again. The Diaz-Balart boys need opponents. Jim Marshall needs to ramp it up. Put Roscoe Bartlett on retirement watch. Gary Peters looks safe. So does Ciro. Shame Tommy Sowers isn't running next door. Larry Kissell needs to ramp it up. So does John Hall and John Tanner. John Adler looks safe. Harry Teague is in trouble.
Bartlett
does this every cycle; he's a crotchety old man who won't raise money unless he has to. I expect he'll be in that seat until he dies.
[ Parent ]
Ditto on Teague
Teague vs. Pearce is going to be a real barnburner.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
This on my list
of most likely to flip.  If Pearce hadnt decided to run for his old seat, I probably wouldnt have given the race much of a second look.  (Obama only lost this district by a point!)
[ Parent ]
This seat makes me excited about redistricting.
Legislature + Gov... We could make 3 lean dem seats here.  
[ Parent ]
This kind of talk makes me nervous
Overreaching like that helped cost Republicans the House. We can't predict what kind of population trends will happen by 2015. I'd rather have two safe seats that we can be sure of holding and one Republican-leaning seat that we might hold for a while than three seats that we could all theoretically lose in a bad year.
[ Parent ]
This isn't quite a two-way street
It imploded on Republicans because of demographic changes.  In New Mexico the demographic changes are a growing Hispanic population (Dem friendly).  All three would continue to slowly trend toward Democrats in the long run.  

The states where I wouldn't recommend an aggressive push, are states where we don't have the seats to do it anyway.  

[ Parent ]
Especially
with Heinrich most likely running for Bingaman's seat in 2012 if he retires.  He wanted to before but having a gavel sure makes being in the Senate more fun so maybe he'll hold off til 2018.

Plus, I really hate doing redistricting with Obama numbers in mind.  I really like using for my base numbers the 04 election with everything being nearly 50/50.  I guess Im just really pessimistic and consider Obama's win a fluke since I've never seen Democrats win and continue to win.  Not saying Democrats can't win but winning states like NM and NV in 15% blow outs, that heavily relies on the Latino/Hispanic (ugh, Im so ignorant on the differences and how to use demographic terms for that demographic) going for the Democrats by the huge margins.

It's unlikely a Republican will be able to garner the support Bush did amongst this demographic but Im not discounting it.  Wait til Democrats have to start being for gay marriage to run for President, that will not sit will this predominantly Catholic and heavily church-going demographic.

[ Parent ]
I don't think Adler is safe.
There might not be a Republican challenger in NJ-03 yet, but there will be. This district only barely went for Adler last year, and that was the first time in 124 years it elected a Democrat to Congress. I would argue that this is a prime pickup opportunity for the GOP.  
[ Parent ]
I can give you
1,396,000 reasons why this is far from a "prime" pickup opportunity.  Top-tier Republicans are going to think twice about challenging Adler, just like John McKinney ran away from Jim Himes's monster fundraising.  There is a lot of lower hanging fruit for Repubs to go after.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Without Obama's coattails
Adler is going to have a hard time holding onto the seat. There may be lower-hanging fruit out there for the Republicans to seize, but this is definitely hanging fairly low, especially for a district in the Northeast. The interesting thing about this district is that it's represented by a politician from the Norcross machine but much of the district is out of Norcross's control, in the Republican Shore region and swing-y Burlington County. Redistricting can save Adler's skin, but he's got to survive 2010 first, and I don't know that he can do it. Without Norcross behind him he wouldn't be posting these fundraising numbers and he'd be toast.
[ Parent ]
I'm not bothered
about where the money comes from.  It's coming and its friggin' huge.  That scares off challengers - witness the complete lack of a challenger.  Whoever gets in at this point is going to have to play catch-up at a rate that is nearly impossible.  The Republican Committee is going to be stretched trying to pick up seats in other places, and will hesitate to pump money into this big money district.  Even given your description of the region, I'd put at least 30 seats above Adler's in terms of competitiveness.  And I'm not sure Obama had tremendous coat-tails here.  He won by 5 (worse than Gore, better than Kerry, and about the same as Adler).  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
What do you know about Norcross?
Based on what I've now read about him, I'm troubled by any power or influence he has.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
He's pretty awful
but what are you going to do?  Dems will take his money unless and until something blows up someday from a law enforcement perspective.  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Is Red to Blue still active?
Are they just taking their time putting candidates on their list or did the program stop?

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


Just waiting to put candidates on their list.
Usually they wait and take strong fundraisers.  I'd assume we get wave 1 after this fundraising quarter.  
[ Parent ]
Should be a strong group of candidates on the first wave
with many of them probably very likely to win.  (Mainly have the Obama/suburban seats in mind that are open or that we got top challengers for.)
[ Parent ]
If I had to guess...
IL-10, PA-06, MN-06, LA-02 (unless they don't want to wade into the primary)

PA-15, DE-AL, WA-08, TX-10, KS-04, CA-03, CA-45 all look like frontrunners.  

[ Parent ]
That'd mostly be my list
I'd add Dave Roberts in CA-50, Paula Brooks in OH-12, and Tom White in NE-2.    Maybe Josh Segall if he polls well.  

A harder question is what to do with potentially good candidates who are crappy fundraisers?  If the DCCC throws some money at Charlie Justice, Lori Edwards, Todd Book, and Paula Flowers, will they be fixing their greatest weakness or funding candidates who don't know how to run a campaign?  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Sounds like "early money is like yeast"
is true when applied to good candidates of all genders.
[ Parent ]
I really hope they do stay out of LA-2
That is certainly a strong enough seat that we just need to let play it out and let them do what they do.

However, the Netroots goal isnt only to elect Democrats like the DCCC, we get progressives elected.  HI-1 and LA-2 are seats we need to be eying.

[ Parent ]
FL-10
I dont get Charlie Justice's problem and I feel like its more of a problem that the campaign could directly cite than, he just sucks at fundraising.

I have a feeling Young not choosing to retire makes many of the people who should be donating quite apprehensive about it, why bother donating to someone when you think Young has the district locked down until he retires?

While I commend Charlie for taking the pro-active approach to challenging him (and probably trying to force him into retirement), I hope that him probably losing doesnt mean the end to his runs at Young's seat.

Is Justice up for re-election this cycle and thus if he loses, he's out of an elected position?

That's right...
Sen. Justice is part of the class of Senators that is up for re-election next year.
[ Parent ]
well then what the hell is he thinking!
He must know something, that Young is going to retire or something.  Just baffling....
[ Parent ]
3Q House Fundraising Reports Roundup | 68 comments

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