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OH-Sen, OH-13: Ganley Switches to House Race

by: Crisitunity

Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 12:59 PM EST


This is a weird bit of news, and one that's bad news for the Democrats on two different fronts:

Wealthy car dealer Tom Ganley (R) is dropping out of the open-seat Ohio Senate race and will challenge Rep. Betty Sutton (D) in the 13th district instead, according to a source familiar with the decision.

The Ganley switch is a coup for Republicans because it gives former Rep. Rob Portman a clear path to the GOP Senate nomination and could put another Democratic-held House seat into play. A recent internal GOP poll showed Ganley leading Sutton by 3 points.

Ganley, as you might recall, was running in the GOP Senate primary against Rob Portman, to little avail. Ganley was polling in the single digits against Portman, and while he'd been reaching out to the local teabaggers in order to find a foothold, hadn't seemed to pique any interest there. Still, Portman can now conserve all of his already-abundant cash for the general, while the Democrats continue to slug it out in their primary.

The 13th is certainly not what you'd think of as a typical Republican target; the blue-collar Akron-based district (held by Sherrod Brown prior to Betty Sutton) is D+5 and was won by Barack Obama by 15 points. That's about the outer limit on what Republicans could hope to pick up, even under the most favorable of circumstances (and even then, probably only with a moderate, not with an aspiring teabagger). Ganley's one ace in the hole that puts this race on the map is money: he can bring over the $1.3 million in his Senate account to the House race, which dwarfs Sutton's $120K. However, it's worth noting, that's all his money (he gave himself $1.6 million during his Senate campaign and burned through some of that to run TV ads), so he might not be inclined to spend all of it.

If Ganley were to somehow win, that also raises the question of redistricting: with Ohio scheduled to lose at least one seat and maybe two, if this seat (already one of the most depopulated in the state) were occupied by a freshman, it'd probably be the first on the chopping block. Maybe not the best investment for Ganley.

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OH-Sen, OH-13: Ganley Switches to House Race | 51 comments
Someone
needs to have "the talk" with Brunner. I don't want to see Fisher blow through half of his war chest on her.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Yes seriously
I love Brunner dearly, but she can't raise money even if her life depended on it. And sadly enough fresh ideas alone doesn't get you far in politics.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Why should she?
Fisher doesn't have the best track record when it comes to statewide races.  And if her fundraising is that bad, he shouldn't have to spend much to defeat her.
[ Parent ]
Because every cent puts him in a bigger hole
He isn't perfect I agree. He may very well lose. But Brunner will definitely lose with the monsterous CoH deficit.
[ Parent ]
What do you
find so appealing about Brunner? Really, no one has ever been able to tell me how she is any more progressive than Fisher or how she would be a better Senator in any way whatsoever. Also how much did she raise last quarter? I think something like 200k while Fisher raised something like 2 million.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Difference
I just don't think Fisher can beat Portman.  I think Brunner can.  
[ Parent ]
Why though?
I mean, I'm not from Ohio, so I don't know any of the candidates that well.  You may very well be right.  But why?
[ Parent ]
What
on earth do have to back that up with. That is the first time I have ever heard that. They poll even now, that is just because they are basically generic D, but when it comes down to it you need MONEY to win a Senate race. I don't care if Brunner is a good person or anything of that nature, if she can't get her fundraising numbers up then we are toast. We are royally screwed if Brunner somehow wins the nomination.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Why
Fisher's lost the last two statewide races he's run.  He's been around forever in Ohio politics in a year where a fresher face should do better.  Money is not everything, despite what most people on here think.  Brunner will have sufficient funds, and the unions and the DSCC spend a sufficient amount for her to run a competitive campaign.
[ Parent ]
No they will not
They have too much defense elsewhere to bail her out. You are correct that money isn't everything but it is something and she has comparatively nothing.
[ Parent ]
Money isn't everything, but
it is still important.  I don't know anything about Fisher's last two runs (when, what office, against who), so I don't know how much impact that has.

But as someone said below she has $60,000 cash on hand.  That's rediculous.

[ Parent ]
Losses
He lost for AG in '94 and Governor in '98.
[ Parent ]
Thanks. n/t

[ Parent ]
Reminds me of Sherrod Brown
Lost Sec.State race back in the day. Brunner is Paul Hackett. Obviously this isn't 2006 anymore but maybe the margin then makes up for it and leaves us with a tossup now.
[ Parent ]
I think its a pretty safe bet
her fundraising would improve immensely if she were to become the nominee.  She'd have the united party behind her.
[ Parent ]
I am sorry
but she has 60K COH! You need more than that to run for State Senate let alone U.S. Senate. Things don't automatically get better once you are the nominee.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
If Brunner had raised 200-300K last quarter
Or had raised $1M in the entire year, I'd be skeptical, but at least I'd take the argument seriously, but raising only $93K in a quarter and having only $60K CoH near the end is ridiculous, I don't really care who the establishment is supporting (really, if the reverse had happened, and Brunner, with massive institutional support, was having a decent (though certainly not spectacular) time fundraising and Fisher only had $60K in the bank, and I gave you a line like that, would you take me at all seriously?)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I think its a pretty safe bet
her fundraising would improve immensely if she were to become the nominee.  She'd have the united party behind her.
[ Parent ]
Yes, it would improve.
But you're talking about $60K going up against millions at first.  Portman would have all the time in the world to define her.

I don't know when Ohio's primaries are, but if she stays at this pace, I think this whole thing will be moot.

[ Parent ]
I think both could
But Brunner won't because she has no way of introducing Portman negatively to the electorate.
[ Parent ]
More like
$780,000 to $93,000 and she reported just $60,000 CoH. Seriously, that is terrible for a House race let alone the seventh largest state in the Union.  
[ Parent ]
Fisher isn't much to write home about either...
..and until he proves he's not as lackluster as he looks I'd rather see him fight and sharpen his skills rather than coasting to the general.  Let him travel the state and re-introduce himself voter by voter.

His strength is that Brunner thus far has been weak on the fundraising front.  Absolutely nothing to do with him being strong.  He hasn't earned the right yet not to earn it.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
Living in the area from 2007-2009,
I say that no way in hell does Sutton lose.  People may be moving out of NE Ohio like the bubonic plague has hit, but those that are still there are mostly reliable Democrats.  Additionally, the area is getting even more liberal.  Nearby Youngstown held its first ever GLBT Pride event last year with only one protester showing up; this could not have happened ten years ago.
True but with
$1,300,000 to spend in a House race, anybody can turn any district any colour.  
[ Parent ]
Which is the other side of Brunner exactly
And why she has to get out.
[ Parent ]
Not necessarily
Nevada Senate comes to mind, also Mike Sodrel has probably blown through well over a million during his many runs. His nickname after all is millionaire Mike. That is not to say that his candidacy is not a serious threat to Sutton, but I think she will prevail.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Sutton will win
She's a much better fit for the district and no doubt Sherrod Brown will work very hard to make sure his old district stays in Democratic hands. It's just another seat we have to play defense in though and more resources that have to be spent rather than putting the Republicans on defense. I agree that if Ganley wins his seat might be one of the two that gets dismantled, just because of his being a freshman.
[ Parent ]
7 million plus
He planned to spend 7 million of his money for the senate primary, more in the general if he won. Now, he has that plus he will be able to raise money
[ Parent ]
Why
would he spend all of that money? Even if he wins, his district will probably be eliminated.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Well
That doesn't seem to be discouraging people from running in open districts that look like they'll be eliminated, such as John Murtha's or Charlie Melancon's. I suppose Ganley figures that he'll be redistricted into a more conservative district like Boccieri's or LaTourette's, where he can pour millions into a reelection bid and scare off his opponent.  
[ Parent ]
Not Really
Otherwise we'd have seen Gov. Al Checchi and Sen. Michael Huffington by now, and no one today would have ever heard of Russ Feingold. Money is needed to win, no question, but yesterday's newspapers are littered with ads from scores of millionaires who were unable to buy themselves a seat in Congress.
[ Parent ]
Agree
Dems aren't going to lose this seat.
[ Parent ]
.
Also just found out that he's a Pontiac/Honda dealer.  Not a good fit for an area that still has loyalty to GM.
[ Parent ]
pontiac
is made by GM.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
And was built in the Ohio plant
The Pontiac G5 was built in the Lordstown, Ohio plant, located right outside the 13th district.
[ Parent ]
Damn you, Wikipidia! n/t

[ Parent ]
Dammit, 24 years old and already my eyesight and spelling skills are going...

[ Parent ]
You know who the NRCC should recruit to run in Ohio?
Joe the Plumber. He said a while back that he was going to run against Marcy Kaptur in the even more liberal 9th District in Ohio. Whatever happened with that? That would be a fun race.
He's going around talking about
how McCain used him... Not sure any part of the Republican party would embrace him now.

Though I surely wish they would.

[ Parent ]
Joe the Plumber's fame
follows a similar arc as that of Cindy Sheehan's. He was useful for a little while. But he has become annoying to most people and the establishment now just wishes he would shut up.
[ Parent ]
I don't think either were useful
Useful idiots maybe but not much else.
[ Parent ]
Comparing
Joe the Plumber to Cindy Sheehan? Ouch.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Yeah seriously
I mean Cindy is as annoying as Joe Not the Plumber but Cindy is a loon because she lost her son Casey in Iraq.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
He
would probably still beat Brunner.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
OH-13 is my home district
And honestly, it's hard to imagine a Republican winning here.  Betty Sutton is a hard-working, charismatic representative that is very well respected.  (I would also say that she hit a big home run by sponsoring the legislation for the cash for clunkers program)  With liberal-leaning cities like Akron, Elyria, and Lorain in the district, any republican would have a difficult time getting 50%+1.  I think the only way Ganley would be able to manage it would be to run up gigantic margins in the affluent communities in the middle between Lorain and Akron. These cities include Brunswick, North Royalton, Brecksville, and Strongsville (my hometown).  These are cities that usually vote republican, but Obama was competitive with McCain here during the 2008 election (Strongsville voted 52-46 for McCain, even though McCain/Palin made a campaign trip to Strongsville ten days before the election).

It'll be interesting where I rate this when I get to Ohio in my house predictions.  My guess is I'm not putting it anywhere near tossup, probably Likely D if I had to guess, the reason being that Ganley would have to run up at least a 2/3 majority in southern Cuyahoga/northern Medina in order to blunt Sutton's strength in Akron and in working class areas of Lorain County to win.  Sutton's too popular for that, I think.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

I think too Sutton will be clear favorite for win

Good luck!

Im not from your district but I find data about all races, and I think the new challenger seems not enough for make feel high danger. I think Sutton will improve her fundraising in next weeks after know this new, and the difference of money will be much lower.

Changing of race, T Ganley show he is not a hard political fighter and show he find not burn all his own money. I think T Ganley find more name recognition for utilize in his own business. Little more.

[ Parent ]
Cash for Clunkers
Interesting to see how Ganley squirms his way out of explaining why he's challenging the congresswoman who sponsored a bill that made him a very wealthy man in 2009.

As a resident of the 13th, I don't see Sutton losing. In her first race in 2006, she drew a challenger that alot of folks thought was top tier in Lorain mayor Craig Foltin and wiped the floor with him. This one will be closer due to climate and Ganley's cash, but Sutton hangs on 54-46 at worst.  

33, male, Dem, OH-13

Wow...
Pink line much? ;) (sorry, off-topic)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Doors are closing
I started using this handle around 2000 when it was still part of the blue line -- this after a long public transit adevnture to retrieve my car from Alsip.

Even though I've been out of Chicago for almost 8 years now, I like the way the words sound and haven't thought of anything better.  

33, male, Dem, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Good point
About Sutton's initial election in 2006.  I wasn't as knowledgeable about politics then, but I believe that was an open seat race on account of Sherrod Brown running for the Senate (and beating Mike Dewine).  She got a 61-39 victory in that race, which despite the widely democratic environment at the time, was still 11% better than the 2004 presidential vote, which was 55-44 for Kerry.  Interesting that Obama didn't move the needle much in 2008, only to 57-42, but if anything, I'd attribute that to Kerry overperforming in 2004 as he basically camped out in Ohio the last week of the election.  

Also, if my memory is with me, doesn't Tom Ganley live in Middleburg Heights?  Middleburg is just north of OH-13, in OH-10, so if that's true he'll probably be labeled a carpetbagger before too long.  I'm not sure though.  Honestly, if Ganley was running against Kucinich in OH-10 instead, I'd vote for him.  I'm so sick of Kucinich.  He's been in there so long and hasn't done jack for Cleveland and it's surrounding communities.  At least Sutton works hard and isn't totally averse to working with others, while Kucinich is just a jerk who votes down anything that isn't 99% in line with what he wants.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

OH-13
I don't know where Ganley lives, but I know he's been all over the Cleveland airwaves for his senate run. I wonder if the NRSC had some internal polling that saw him making a dent in Portman's numbers?

Sutton seems like an up and comer and just the sort of person the GOP would like to have a self funded candidate like Ganley try to take out without expending their own resources in a D+5 district.

You are correct about Sutton's first race being an open seat and Kerry did overperform in Ohio. Despite losing, it was one of only 2 states where he improved on Gore's numbers from 2000 (NC I believe was the other one).  

33, male, Dem, OH-13

[ Parent ]
OH-Sen, OH-13: Ganley Switches to House Race | 51 comments

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