Quinnipiac (11/3-8, registered voters, 9/10-14 in parens):
Chris Dodd (D-inc): 38 (39)
Rob Simmons (R): 49 (44)
Undecided: 11 (15)Chris Dodd (D-inc): 41 (NA)
Linda McMahon (R): 43 (NA)
Undecided: 12 (NA)Chris Dodd (D-inc): 42 (40)
Sam Caligiuri (R): 42 (36)
Undecided: 14 (20)Chris Dodd (D-inc): 40 (40)
Tom Foley (R): 47 (38)
Undecided: 13 (18)Chris Dodd (D-inc): 42 (42)
Peter Schiff (R): 41 (36)
Undecided: 15 (19)
(MoE: ±2.8%)Chris Dodd (D-inc): 55 (56)
Merrick Alpert (D): 22 (13)
Undecided: 21 (25)
(MoE: ±4.5%)Rob Simmons (R): 28 (43)
Linda McMahon (R): 17 (NA)
Tom Foley (R): 9 (5)
Peter Schiff (R): 5 (4)
Sam Caligiuri (R): 4 (2)
Undecided: 36 (43)
(MoE: ±5.4%)
Democrats had been seeming more confident about two Senate races, in Connecticut (where Chris Dodd seemed to be climbing back up to contention, as various controversies like the AIG bonuses and his mortgage that had buffetted him earlier in the year faded from view) and Ohio (where polls had shown the Democrats leading ex-Bushie Rob Portman). Yesterday, though, Quinnipiac threw a splash of cold water on both of those races.
In Connecticut, Republican ex-Rep. Rob Simmons, with whom Democratic incumbent Chris Dodd had pulled within 5 in September, now opens up an 11-point lead. Simmons also still looks on track to win the nomination, despite the splashy entry of wrasslin’ impresario Linda McMahon. Dodd had 42/49 favorables — actually a slight improvement from last time’s 40/48. Instead, Dodd seems dragged down by the economy, which respondents see as the biggest issue (at 33%) and which, for better or worse, the Democrats are starting to own. Simmons has a squeaky-clean 40/10 favorable (better than McMahon, at 20/13), so it may be time for Dodd to open up a Corzine-style can of slimy whoopass on Simmons — maybe starting by asking him what’s the deal with that teabag attached to his pocket constitution.
One other lowlight from the Connecticut poll: they find Joe Lieberman more popular than Chris Dodd, with 49/44 approval and a 46/45 re-elect. This despite 51% saying his views are closer to those of the Republican Party and 25% saying Democratic.
Quinnipiac (11/5-9, registered voters, 9/8-10 in parentheses):
Lee Fisher (D): 36 (42)
Rob Portman (R): 39 (31)
Undecided: 24 (26)Lee Fisher (D): 38 (41)
Tom Ganley (R): 34 (29)
Undecided: 27 (27)Jennifer Brunner (D): 34 (39)
Rob Portman (R): 38 (34)
Undecided: 27 (25)Jennifer Brunner (D): 35 (39)
Tom Ganley (R): 32 (31)
Undecided: 30 (27)
(MoE: ±2.9%)Lee Fisher (D): 24 (26)
Jennifer Brunner (D): 22 (17)
Undecided: 51 (55)Rob Portman (R): 26 (27)
Tom Ganley (R): 7 (9)
Undecided: 64 (61)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
The economy may also be weighing on voters’ minds in Ohio, where Quinnipiac finds even Barack Obama in net-negative territory, with a 45/50 approval (although, compared with his national approvals, that may point to this as a slight outlier rather than an indication of particular disgruntlement in Ohio — recall this was the same sample that found a 40-40 tie in the gubernatorial race). The result is a pretty big turnaround in the Senate race, where Lt. Governor Lee Fisher was beating ex-Rep. Rob Portman by double digits in September but now falls into a slight deficit. Fisher beats teabagging auto dealer Tom Ganley, but there looks like little hope of Ganley getting out of the primary.
These numbers also indicate why SoS Jennifer Brunner is sticking around, despite the wheels having fallen off her campaign (and subsequently having been sold for food). Regardless of her fundraising situation, she’s still coming pretty close to Fisher in the primary, and performing about the same against the Republicans as Fisher. That, of course, may change once the ad wars begin.
conservatism?
I strongly doubt that a can of worms on simmons will be enough for Dodd to win.
I am hoping for a fratricidal primary for the Republicans and even that may not be enough.
And Dodd has excellent potential to be a drag on the governor’s race.
There is no way that the Foley guy would or should be pulling better numbers against Chris Dodd than McMahon is. The dude raised a ton of money for Bush and I assume is probably to the right of most CT voters on a host of issues. Foley might as well be called Generic Republican then.
We need Schiff to run third party, any chance Simmons says something nasty to him and he does it?
After thowing out all Rasmussen polls as outliera, and as republican slanted, I am starting to worry when Quinnipiac starts showing bad news for dems.
What the Democrats need to do in congress Is pass that fucking healthcare legislation NOW, as well as that jobs bill they outlined today. If these two things come out of congress and are signed into law, I think the dems can turn it around. If that doesn’t occur, I fear for the 2010 elections in which Dodd can’t win in the bluest of blue states.
I think Dodd has earned the right to be beaten though, people shouldn’t be pushing a man out who clearly is not struggling with his duties or someone who has voted the way he should he would. Dodd hasn’t broken any promises to his constituents, Corzine I believe did so on property taxes as the largest example.
That Dodd bails on the race and retires?
He seems like a pretty stand-up guy who would do the right thing for the country and his party….which may in this case mean stepping aside for new blood…
And if so, can we do better? Still, I agree with the above comment that Dodd has earned the right to run (and lose) if he chooses…
Ohio numbers continue like in last polls from other pollsters. With the level of Portman fundraising this race will be very difficult for win.
Previous polls for OH was:
OH-Gov: +1% for Strickland
OH-Sen: -1% for Fisher (losing)
Last numbers from Quinnipiac are:
OH-Gov: =0% for Strickland
OH-Sen: -3% for Fisher (losing)
Connecticut numbers are differents. With anothers dems endangering J Rell, i think maybe other dems can improve C Dodd numbers. Like for NY-Gov race with A Cuomo i think would be very interesting start to know polls with more democrats like Blumenthal against R Simmons.
nothing like being the figurehead of a business that doesn’t offer health insurance to it’s employees, will not allow for a union, will fire injured employees, and i’ve heard there’s more (or these things put in a better package) in a recent issue of Dave Meltzer’s Wrestling Observer.
Has to be a heck of an election for Pro Wrestling “rags” to be oppo-research material.
Also, Dodd should step aside for a stronger candidate.
There was talk a few years back of him running for governor. He might lose the primary and even if he won it would be less risky that threatening the senate seat.
I may spend a moment here and there looking at poll results but the fact is that the only thing that counts is who actually shows up for the election (or sends in a ballot by mail). While this is either a race to win power or celebrity for some of the candidates I support Peter Schiff for US Senate because he has ideas and principles worth supporting.
http://SchiffForSenate.com/