Quinnipiac (11/3-8, registered voters, 9/10-14 in parens):
Chris Dodd (D-inc): 38 (39)
Rob Simmons (R): 49 (44)
Undecided: 11 (15)
Chris Dodd (D-inc): 41 (NA)
Linda McMahon (R): 43 (NA)
Undecided: 12 (NA)
Chris Dodd (D-inc): 42 (40)
Sam Caligiuri (R): 42 (36)
Undecided: 14 (20)
Chris Dodd (D-inc): 40 (40)
Tom Foley (R): 47 (38)
Undecided: 13 (18)
Chris Dodd (D-inc): 42 (42)
Peter Schiff (R): 41 (36)
Undecided: 15 (19)
(MoE: ±2.8%)
Chris Dodd (D-inc): 55 (56)
Merrick Alpert (D): 22 (13)
Undecided: 21 (25)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Rob Simmons (R): 28 (43)
Linda McMahon (R): 17 (NA)
Tom Foley (R): 9 (5)
Peter Schiff (R): 5 (4)
Sam Caligiuri (R): 4 (2)
Undecided: 36 (43)
(MoE: ±5.4%)
Democrats had been seeming more confident about two Senate races, in Connecticut (where Chris Dodd seemed to be climbing back up to contention, as various controversies like the AIG bonuses and his mortgage that had buffetted him earlier in the year faded from view) and Ohio (where polls had shown the Democrats leading ex-Bushie Rob Portman). Yesterday, though, Quinnipiac threw a splash of cold water on both of those races.
In Connecticut, Republican ex-Rep. Rob Simmons, with whom Democratic incumbent Chris Dodd had pulled within 5 in September, now opens up an 11-point lead. Simmons also still looks on track to win the nomination, despite the splashy entry of wrasslin' impresario Linda McMahon. Dodd had 42/49 favorables -- actually a slight improvement from last time's 40/48. Instead, Dodd seems dragged down by the economy, which respondents see as the biggest issue (at 33%) and which, for better or worse, the Democrats are starting to own. Simmons has a squeaky-clean 40/10 favorable (better than McMahon, at 20/13), so it may be time for Dodd to open up a Corzine-style can of slimy whoopass on Simmons -- maybe starting by asking him what's the deal with that teabag attached to his pocket constitution.
One other lowlight from the Connecticut poll: they find Joe Lieberman more popular than Chris Dodd, with 49/44 approval and a 46/45 re-elect. This despite 51% saying his views are closer to those of the Republican Party and 25% saying Democratic.
Quinnipiac (11/5-9, registered voters, 9/8-10 in parentheses):
Lee Fisher (D): 36 (42)
Rob Portman (R): 39 (31)
Undecided: 24 (26)
Lee Fisher (D): 38 (41)
Tom Ganley (R): 34 (29)
Undecided: 27 (27)
Jennifer Brunner (D): 34 (39)
Rob Portman (R): 38 (34)
Undecided: 27 (25)
Jennifer Brunner (D): 35 (39)
Tom Ganley (R): 32 (31)
Undecided: 30 (27)
(MoE: ±2.9%)
Lee Fisher (D): 24 (26)
Jennifer Brunner (D): 22 (17)
Undecided: 51 (55)
Rob Portman (R): 26 (27)
Tom Ganley (R): 7 (9)
Undecided: 64 (61)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
The economy may also be weighing on voters' minds in Ohio, where Quinnipiac finds even Barack Obama in net-negative territory, with a 45/50 approval (although, compared with his national approvals, that may point to this as a slight outlier rather than an indication of particular disgruntlement in Ohio -- recall this was the same sample that found a 40-40 tie in the gubernatorial race). The result is a pretty big turnaround in the Senate race, where Lt. Governor Lee Fisher was beating ex-Rep. Rob Portman by double digits in September but now falls into a slight deficit. Fisher beats teabagging auto dealer Tom Ganley, but there looks like little hope of Ganley getting out of the primary.
These numbers also indicate why SoS Jennifer Brunner is sticking around, despite the wheels having fallen off her campaign (and subsequently having been sold for food). Regardless of her fundraising situation, she's still coming pretty close to Fisher in the primary, and performing about the same against the Republicans as Fisher. That, of course, may change once the ad wars begin.
RaceTracker Wiki: OH-Sen | CT-Sen |
