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AR-Sen: Boozman Demolishes Lincoln (If He Runs)

by: Crisitunity

Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 1:37 PM EST


PPP (pdf) (1/29-31, likely voters, 8/21-24 in parentheses)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 33
John Boozman (R): 56
Undecided: 11

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 35 (40)
Gilbert Baker (R): 50 (42)
Undecided: 15 (18)

Bill Halter (D): 30
John Boozman (R): 53
Undecided: 17

Bill Halter (D): 34
Gilbert Baker (R): 45
Undecided: 21

Wesley Clark (D): 36
John Boozman (R): 51
Undecided: 13

Wesley Clark (D): 39
Gilbert Baker (R): 45
Undecided: 16

Mike Ross (D): 37
John Boozman (R): 48
Undecided: 15

Mike Ross (D): 39
Gilbert Baker (R): 39
Undecided: 22

Mike Beebe (D): 43
John Boozman (R): 44
Undecided: 13

Mike Beebe (D): 46
Gilbert Baker (R): 38
Undecided: 15
(MoE: ±3.4%)

Looks like Blanche Lincoln picked the wrong year to be a Democrat in Arkansas. Basically, Blanche Lincoln has become something of a Generic Congressional Democrat to the Arkansas electorate: 55% think that Congressional Democrats are too liberal (compared with 12% too conservative and 32% about right), and a very similar 52% think Lincoln is too liberal (with 14% too conservative and 28% about right). Clocking in at 27/62 approvals, she loses badly not only to the sort-of-known Rep. John Boozman (32/25 favorables) -- who's currently in a "I'm running but I'm not running yet" limbo -- but the barely-known state Sen. Gilbert Baker (9/16, with 75% not sure).

Substitute Democrats in the race fare little better, in case Lincoln gets the message and opts for a nice health insurance industry lobbyist job instead. The problem isn't one of personalities (seeing as Dems have a strong bench here, including a freakin' war hero) but the statewide brand, or more specifically, the state's perception of the national party. This is best seen with the puzzling case of Gov. Mike Beebe, here with a 59/22 approval (not astounding, but probably still one of the best among all governors) but with a walking-on-water 82/9 in a different poll last month. Even Beebe, easily the most popular man in Arkansas, still loses to Boozman and is the only Dem to get past unknown Baker. Highly suggestive that Arkansas is happy to keep its Dems in-state, but currently very unenthused about sending them to the Senate. (See also conspiracy's diary.)

Rasmussen (2-1, likely voters, 1/5 in parentheses)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 35
John Boozman (R): 54
Some other: 4
Not sure: 7

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 33 (39)
Gilbert Baker (R): 52 (51)
Some other: 6 (3)
Not sure: 8 (7)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 35 (39)
Kim Hendren (R): 51 (47)
Some other: 7 (4)
Not sure: 7 (10)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 34 (38)
Curtis Coleman (R): 50 (48)
Some other: 7 (4)
Not sure: 9 (9)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 36 (38)
Tom Cox (R): 50 (48)
Some other: 6 (5)
Not sure: 9 (9)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

It's not every day that you see Rasmussen having a more optimistic view of a race than PPP, although here it may simply be a less catastrophic view. Boozman here leads by a mere 19. More alarming here, perhaps, are the trendlines on the races against the miscellaneous Republican parts and pieces here: they aren't gaining ground so much as Lincoln is further losing ground, sinking down into the mid-30s regardless of opponent.

RaceTracker Wiki: AR-Sen
Crisitunity :: AR-Sen: Boozman Demolishes Lincoln (If He Runs)
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AR-Sen: Boozman Demolishes Lincoln (If He Runs) | 64 comments
If Lincoln was to quit
The best bet looks like Mike Ross but I doubt such a candidacy would go down too well. House seat loss, HCR etc.
Too bad Ross sucks as bad as Lincoln.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Maybe
But can he win? You aren't telling me you'd prefer Boozman or Baker are you?
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't.
I just hope Ross doesn't run or else we will see no improvement in that Senate seat at all.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
You are most likely getting the opposite
I'll take the status quo if I can get it.
[ Parent ]
We're not likely to see any improvement at all anyway

[ Parent ]
Yes I would.
I'm not interested in pyrrhic victories where we spend ungodly amounts of money to elect someone who's probably going to lose anyways, will be vulnerable again even if elected, and who will undermine the Democratic Party and its agenda if elected, leading to electoral climates such as the one we're in.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I still say this poll is B.S.
Those crosstabs are really weird-especially when you look at the number of people who don't know these candidates and at Beebe's numbers in it.  That's not to say Lincoln is in trouble, but there is something very funny about this one.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
Of course you do
These guys now have a history of being right. I say give them the benefit of the doubt.
[ Parent ]
I Think Any Poll Where 41% of Dem Respondents...
...think Congressional Republicans are either too LIBERAL or "about right" has a dubious sample.
[ Parent ]
Doesn't surprise me in Arkansas
where McCain got 22% of the Dem vote.  
[ Parent ]
Who Can't Remember Who They Voted for President?
9% of this sample, that's who.  Only roughly 2% of the AR vote for pres went to third party candidates, so that's a lot of people lying or who are full of crap.  And those 9%, if you look at their assessments of the ideology of Congressional R's and D's, align much more with Repubs than Dems.

This poll's sample is a bit whacked.  

[ Parent ]
Subsamples have much higher MoE
They may not be perfect but certainly not enough to dispute the topline.
[ Parent ]
Lincoln needs to drop out a la Dodd
The environment could very well improve, and an outside Washington candidate like Halter would have a better chance.  Lincoln is done no matter what happens in the next nine months.
Agree
Particularly if Boozman is as "Coakley" as his reputation suggests.
[ Parent ]
Only helps if there is a viable alternative
In CT, the problem was less about Democrats in general and more about Dodd-specific baggage.  The problem for Democrats here is more related to the national environment.  If the environment doesn't significantly improve, it doesn't matter who is nominated.  And if it does, then Democrats are safer with an incumbent than an open seat.
[ Parent ]
Don't think so
People with low name rec can build their positives. Much harder for Lincoln to do that when voters have made their minds up about her.
[ Parent ]
Agreed, with one caveat ...
Wesley Clark might make a race of it, albeit uphill from the start.  Otherwise, you might as well stick with Lincoln.  MAYBE, the national environment will turn in time (although I doubt it).  That is the only option if a Lincoln withdrawal/Clark candidacy doesn't happen.

Why put an 'L' on someone else's record (ie Halter)?  Halter can't win, period. Better to get him re-elected and able to run another day.

Halter has no chance. At least Lincoln has incumbency/money on her side.      

[ Parent ]
Mike Ross polls the best
And has room to grow. He would stand an outside chance I think.
[ Parent ]
Technically true, but other factors are at play too...
... can Ross raise the kind of money Clark can? As a military figure, Clark has some clout that Ross would not. Clark also doesn't have controversial votes on his record, and is not a Washington incumbent.  

Taken together, I'd would bet on Clark in this instance.      

[ Parent ]
Strangely enough
I think they would have quite an easy time of painting Wes as a liberal. But I agree he would have a shot.
[ Parent ]
The Beebe numbers scare me...
...you'd think at least he might have a lead with his high name recognition and sky high approval numbers.

However I still think a substitute Democrat has more of a chance given just how high Lincoln's negatives are.  Someone else will have more potential for an upward projectary and to build their poll numbers even if they start at a lower point than she is now.

Of course a substitution will just move this race from a sure loser to a probably loser.  But in a year like this it's always best to ride your strongest horse because you never know what will happen.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

Georgia 2002 Redux?

[ Parent ]
What are you suggesting?
Beebe actually losing his re-election bid?
[ Parent ]
It's not inconceivable
Though I think it's pretty unlikely.  
[ Parent ]
Barnes wasn't this popular
And Sonny Perdue was something. The RGA in AR got nothing.
[ Parent ]
My recollection
is that Perdue didn't seem like much of anything. He was just a state senator, right?

Anyway, what will be, will be, in Arkansas. I think Bill Clinton mostly held off the inevitable--though I could be wrong.  

[ Parent ]
unless this poll is complete BS
or the national mood shifts, it looks like lincoln's our Mike DeWine.  like him, she's somewhat moderate, but in a state whose ideology is moving away from her, and she just isn't well percieved by either side of the aisel.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
That's an excellent analogy

[ Parent ]
Why is the Headline (if he runs)
He is running. He'll announce Saturday. The Headline isn't correct.
He's not running yet, technically

[ Parent ]
As Al Swearengen said
"Announcing your plans is a good way to hear god laugh."

I'm pretty tired of these politicians who announce that they are going to announce... something. Sometimes they get cold feet - or sometimes, sources are simply wrong. In this case, I'll be perfectly satisfied when Boozman actually shows up. Until then, he's still a maybe in my book.

[ Parent ]
Beebe for Senate and Ross for Governor the best ticket

This is the best combination for 2010, is so obvious looking the results.

Democratic recruiters, work hard about it!

Why would Beebe go for that?
I wouldn't.
[ Parent ]
Because Beebe is the alone what can win this senate seat

And Ross can win too the gubernatorial race.

If Lincoln retires and Beebe get for governor, Democratic Party will be in a DE-Sen or MI-Gov situation, where B Biden and D Archer run not.


[ Parent ]
I get that
But what is in it for Beebe himself? Has he given any indication at all that he might want to go to Washington? Why would he want to risk a tossup senate race when he is a shoe-in for re-election? I don't see it myself.
[ Parent ]
Surely Beebe will not has a better chance for be senator

If Lincoln retires Beebe can run as frontrunner for an open seat. And Beebe is a political figure what makes escape republican political adversaries. If Boozman doubt much months about challenge Lincoln, you think he would run against Beebe? I doubt seriously. Boozman would come back, like Rokita or Pence in Indiana. This is not an interesting level for republicans because that mean their candidate need millions of $.

If Beebe run for senate surely all others would think in governors office, and for that Ross can be respected, not in the same level than Beebe, but he is a difficult enemy for republicans in Arkansas.

[ Parent ]
Maybe
But largely wishful thinking IMO.
[ Parent ]
I think the people from Arkansas is calling for it in this poll

Democratic Party and democratic politicians need heard the people.
[ Parent ]
Since when do Politicians do what the people want?


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
maybe when they are afraid about lose, but not always

[ Parent ]
Sorry, I continue. The alternative for that, is

The alternative for that, is have not democratic candidate for senate now, lose the seat, and Beebe going home in 2015 after 4 years more in governors office. Then, or later, Beebe would think in run against an incumbent senator republican, not for an open seat.
[ Parent ]
this writing hurts my brain
n/t

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic
[ Parent ]
Steady
There could be reasons for it.
[ Parent ]
English is abgin's 3rd language, I believe
Can you post as well in your 3rd language?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Out of curiosity, what are the first two? (eom)


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I'd like to know, too
I saw a post about this on DailyKos. I don't know the answer.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Damn. Now I feel bad. I apologize; I had no idea
Pero puedo escribir muy bien en español y
Mais je peux écrire passable en français.

I really am sorry again; especially as somebody who's parents moved to the states (from Mexico) three months before I was born.

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic

[ Parent ]
I hate to say it....
but it would be better for the Democratic Party if Lincoln steps down. Then we have at least a chance of holding the seat. Ditto Nevada.
A chance with who ?
Wes Clark perhaps, but still uphill. The problem is not Lincoln herself, it is the "D" after her name.  
[ Parent ]
Somebody else has an opportunity
To create a good impression while opinion of Lincoln is already set in stone. As you say uphill but not impossible.
[ Parent ]
Primary challenge
if her approval among Democrats is as bad as this poll suggests, she should be very vulnerable in a primary.  
[ Parent ]
You would think so
Though I suspect, like in Nevada, the money angle scares people off.
[ Parent ]
Someone with a D after there name ??
The problem is the party's image more than anything Lincoln herself has done.
[ Parent ]
I wonder
if this poll will shut up all of those Halter pushers.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Halter needs to run for the House seat
He could very easily turn that into a Dem hold for us, whereas a Senate run is suicide for him at this point.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
I noticed
for the most part the blogsphere has focused on Lincoln's weak standing and ignored the rest to spin it as a Lincoln problem.

[ Parent ]
It's a Lincoln problem in that
a really effective incumbent Dem could still hold the seat.  Fritz Hollings held on in South Carolina against strong candidates long after that seat ceased to be viable for Dems.  Unfortunately, we have two wet noodles in Arkansas, with Lincoln being the noodliest of the two.  I expect Pryor at least to put up a fight when it's his turn on the chopping block.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
I doubt any Dem could hold this seat
and let's face it, Fritz sometimes makes Lincoln look like Russ freaking Feingold, the guy voted against FMLA and for Bork.

I don't even think Fritz could hold his seat in this environment.

[ Parent ]
Hollings never really had a strong opponent ...
Tommy Hartnett was the strongest one and he sucked.  He let the NSCC run his campaign, which was a huge mistake. More than any one thing, that probably cost him the race.

Plus that was 1992, the Dem still had some strength back then.  That race wasn't nationalized either, as this one will be.

Pryor is stronger than Lincoln will ever be, but if Pryor were up this time, he would be in danger too.    

[ Parent ]
There's a solid argument to be made
for abandoning Lincoln to her own devices, or simply not contesting this seat at all.

This is the very last seat I'd want to spend national money on.  We could pour $10 million or more here and Boozman would still win comfortably, even if Clark or Ross were the Dem nominee.  What's more, Boozman wouldn't even have to break a financial sweat to win it.  Spending money on a seat like this is throwing it away.

If we're going to spend on long-shot races, I'd rather slap Richard Burr around a bit, or pressure Reid to withdraw in favor of Ross Miller and run ad blitzes against Krolicki's ethics peccadilloes, or even fund Melancon against Vitter.  Those seats are all at least theoretically winnable, especially given the obvious weaknesses of Krolicki, Burr, and Vitter.  AR-Sen is not.  What has happened is that this has become a deep red state so quickly that it still has blue Senators in it.  Those Senators, Pryor two, are simply dead in the water.  We might as well blow a whole bunch of money on Kansas -- it's just a waste of our financial resources.

I'm not abandoning the fifty-state strategy, honest.  What I'm suggesting is that there's a lot more headway to be made this cycle by staying on the offense against vulnerable GOP incumbents than by defending indefensible candidates like Reid and Lincoln.  I could see us losing eight incumbents this year and still only being down four seats, but it's never going to happen if we try to make firewalls out of people like Lincoln.  We need some realism from the national office about how the demographics have changed, and fast.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

I think M Beebe can win more easily than Miller, Marshall or Melancon

M Beebe is too in the poll for Arkansas.
[ Parent ]
No one doubts it
but honestly its just not going to happen. I wish it would, but he is not going to do it.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I wonder how Bill Clinton would poll in the Senate race
Not that he would run 1) as it would be a step down from President to Senate 2) he probably wouldn't have enough time to satisify the residency requirements 3) his move to New York wouldn't look very good and 4) having his wife work for Obama probably wouldn't help.  But I'd like to see what a Clinton matchup would look like.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
AR-Sen: Boozman Demolishes Lincoln (If He Runs) | 64 comments

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