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AR-Sen: Getting Uglier

by: James L.

Wed Jan 06, 2010 at 7:27 PM EST


Rasmussen (1/5, likely voters, 12/1 in parens):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 39 (39)
Gilbert Baker (R): 51 (46)
Undecided: 7 (9)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 38 (40)
Curtis Coleman (R): 48 (44)
Undecided: 9 (9)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 38 (40)
Tom Cox (R): 48 (44)
Undecided: 9 (10)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 39 (39)
Kim Hendren (R): 47 (46)
Undecided: 10 (9)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Markos has already jumped upon this poll, trying to direct Lincoln's attention to the possibility of retirement. DavidNYC made a persuasive case that Democrats would be better off with Lt. Gov. Bill Halter running in Lincoln's place, and PPP will go into the field sometime during the next few weeks to test "alternatives" to Lincoln. (They'll also test alternatives to Harry Reid and Michael Bennet, but that's a discussion for another thread.)

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James L. :: AR-Sen: Getting Uglier
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AR-Sen: Getting Uglier | 36 comments
Terrible numbers for Lincoln even from Ras...
For a state with such heavy D registration, Lincoln, even if I give her extra points for Ras bias, is doing very poorly. She should be spending tons of money touting her records and bashing the nonentities that are her GOP opponents, but at this rate, I'm not so sure she can save herself since with such low undecideds, folks have pretty much decided against retaining her in office, regardless of her Ag. Chair, $$ or Mike Beebe. Sad end!

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  
Wow
Those numbers are terrible.  What a change in 2 years, Pryor runs unopposed in 2008 and Lincoln is appears on the verge of losing big in 2010.  Does anyone think this is a bit unsurprising and it is just indicative of the further polarization of the parties by region?
Part of the problem here is Lincoln
She's a weak politician, Pryor is actually a pretty strong politician, that's why it's unlikely he'd lose.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Yeah
Arkansas actually pretty well likes all their state and local Dem elected officials, even if they've gotten cold towards national Dems, so this poll says a lot more about Lincoln than it does about Arkansas.  And the worst part is that these are all pretty much generic Republicans at this point; it's not like there's a Huckabee in there.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
Do what they did with Dodd
Get Lincoln to retire and find a better candidate. Every major statewide office in Arkansas is held by a dem and they were all elected to those office by a large margins.
Martha Shoffner, Dustin McDaniels, or Bill Halter would probably make this seat safe.
No Democrat would make this seat safe
save Mike Beebe, who makes Lincoln look like Dennis Kucinich in comparison.  

Some may make this seat competitive, however.

[ Parent ]
Can you elaborate about Beebe?
He's that far to the right of Lincoln?

For the record, I hope she's the next retirement.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Beebe is very conservative
as far as I know.  He is similar to Joe Manchin (who will likely replace Byrd in WV), basically a pro-corporate evangelical.
[ Parent ]
As an Arkansan I can tell you that you're way off.
Beebe has much more of a populist/quasi-progressive streak than the more corporate oriented Lincoln has ever had.  Let's see...he's worked to make our tax code more progressive by cutting the sales tax on food, he's been strongly supportive of needs based scholarships and fully funding public education, worked behind the scenes to try to kill the gay adoption ban, etc.

Trust me, your characterization of Beebe as a "pro-corporate evangelical" has no basis in reality.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
Alright I'll take your word for it
since he is one of the politicians that I know the least about.  

But my guess is the impression I had of Beebe is the same one that most people in Arkansas have, which probably explains why he is so popular there.

[ Parent ]
The thing I hear from Arkansans all the time is...
Beebe has done exactly what he said he'd do and he's been a good governor.  The majority of people don't give a damn about liberal or conservative-they want results (a big reason why the polls are so sour across the board right now I might add).

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
In addition
what kind of voting record do you think Beebe would have in the Senate if he were to run and be elected?  Would it be similar to Lincoln/Pryor, more progressive, or less progressive?
[ Parent ]
I don't deal in pointless hypotheticals much
Beebe isn't going near the Senate, so I haven't given it any thought.  I would say though that he is a different personality altogether than Lincoln who has been on the corporate dime from before she was an elected official and who freaks over everything...or Pryor who's, frankly, rather dumb.  I might also add that I can't count the number of people that have jumped David Pryor at meetings to tell him he needs to set his son staight, which should tell you something about Arkansas.

That said, Beebe's nonconfrontational, results oriented style has served him well.  He was a damn good state senator, and he's been a good executive as AG and Governor.  I'd prefer him in the senate I think to either Pryor or Lincoln, but it ain't happening so I'm not going to waste much thought on it.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
And all of the sudden people here believe Rasmussen?
Or are the results of this poll just a convenient excuse to push a "dump Blanche" movement?
It's not that we believe Rasmussen
PPP has shown her trailing also. I think everyone wants to just dump the toxic incumbents. Dodd, Reid, and Lincoln were the most vulnerable next year. We got Dodd to withdraw now its time to get rid of Reid and Lincoln.
[ Parent ]
I doubt she is down this badly
But I don't doubt she is in serious trouble when all the polling has her around the 40% mark.
[ Parent ]
R2K had her with an upside down fav/unfav of 41/50-thus the numbers of a toxic candidate

[ Parent ]
It's convenient talk, but still
Using a standard Ras adjusment, Lincoln should be behind by about four points now.  Now way does that mean she is dead, especially if the Red primary is nasty, but she's clearly not leading.

This data is kinda pointless though without corresponding numbers for Halter or someone else.  

I sure hope PPP gets in the field with some useful comparison polls soon, not "weeks" from now.  As we can see from Conn, a different name can make for entirely different race.  It seems likely Dodd got a headup on these numbers, and they were writing on a wall.

[ Parent ]
Points well taken, question -
what is
a standard Ras adjusment
these days, assuming a two way D/R race?

(a.k.a., what number would you use as a correction factor, presumably adding to D, subtracting from R?)

[ Parent ]
Ras is 5 points behind in the Obama favorability polls
is what somebody at Kos wrote today, but I don't pay that close attention to those things.  But you can't just add five to the Dem, or add five to the Dem and subtract five from the Rep (which would put Lincoln about even here which is where the other polls have had it).

But I'd figure to add more than five points of margin and less than ten for the Dem.

Coakley will be a good test.  Ras has the margin under ten points, we'll see.

[ Parent ]
Here here.
People should stop paying attention to Rasmussen period.  It's obvious by this point they're just trying to influence the narrative.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
I understand that Assmuffin
is trying to rig these polls, but Lincoln's vulnerability has been proven by nearly every poll.

I think it is time for Bill Halter to run.

[ Parent ]
I don't disagree
Though for me it's less about her bad polls and more about the fact that she doesn't give a rat's ass about her constituents.  I'd fight for her until the bitter end if she was worth fighting for, but why should I do that for someone that doesn't care about my interest or my family and neighbors?

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
This is what separates Lincoln from Dodd and Corzine
In my opinion, even though Dodd was a toxic candidate, he was one of the hardest working senators in Washington D.C. and accomplished A LOT. Jon Corzine was a phenominal senator and an even more amazing governor. Corzine worked for a dollar a year and was very devoted to his job even working from his home and communicating by conference while he was recoperating from that traumatic car accident. Too bad New Jersey had to complain because Corzine didn't have the magical powers to fix the entire economic mess caused by George W. Bush.

On the other hand Blanche Lincoln only cares about Blanche Lincoln. Why should we try and fight to save a senator who threatens to fillibuster health care reform if it has a public option. She doesn't even follow the public opinion polls that a clear majority in Arkansas wanted a public option. What has Blanche Lincoln even accomplished in her almost two terms in Washington D.C. that would make us want her back. In a way, I wonder if there are many parallels between Blanche Lincoln and Elizabeth Dole's ineffectiveness that cost Dole her seat. All in all is Blanche Lincoln really worth wasting millions of dollars from the DSCC or is this more proof that it's time to swap Lincoln for someone else.

[ Parent ]
Weren't those polls done by NBC and Daily Kos?
Just saying, it is hard to believe that the majority of employers in Arkansas would support the bill as written.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

[ Parent ]
It has nothing to do with the bill
Sorry to become a broken-record but Ill explain this every time it seems appropriate.

I read a book in my last semester at undergrad called Stealth Democracy written by two profs.  What they found is pretty much the title, people want a democracy and want other people to make the decisions for them, just want it done "stealthy" and not hear about something for months on end.

The heath care bill could give every person $1000 in cash for not smoking a cigarette that year, people will still be against the bill because they are sick of the ENTIRE process involved to get it passed and what has all transpired.  It has nothing to do with whats in the bill, it has do with the fact that people just want our politicians to shut up and be done with it already.  You want to kill a piece of good legislation, drag out the process for as long as possible and this is shown quite well considering how the polls were great for us back in June, July, August even, and then it all started to go downhill as people's patience with hearing about HCR ran out.

Lincoln screwed herself by tying herself to the bill so much, by making herself appear to be someone who is prolonging a decision to pass or fail it.  To her, she is helping her constituents and following their wishes, to the constituents, she is being a pain in the ass and has tied herself to something they are sick of hearing about.

[ Parent ]
I think you are right
and the GOP is much better at this game.  They passed their tax cut really quickly.  And they went quickly with Social Security reform, and when it was clear that it wasn't going to pass quickly, they shelved it immediately, and thus it didn't hurt them that much.  (Seniors were the only age group that voted GOP in 2006 and 2008)
[ Parent ]
Good stuff, but I'd add one thing to it
Lincoln, Pryor, or the House reps for that matter haven't really done anything to explain to Arkansans what's in the bill or why they should support it.  They spend most of their time turning tail and hiding from voters, which only feeds into the teabagger rage and lets those nuts go unchallenged.  There's a clear need in Arkansas, as evidence by the countless people that lined up at the free clinic event in need of serious help, but because no one but Halter has laid out any sort of case on this no one really understands that the healthcare bill is worth supporting.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
Sure, but they are polling
They may have a more conservative electorate under their models, but they aren't just calling up teabaggers and asking them to pick the first two numbers that come into their heads.

Either way, Lincoln is not safe, and whilst a drop in Obama popularity would sink her, it's unlikely a rise would save her. She's in real trouble.

[ Parent ]
For those interested...
There is a draft Bill Halter facebook group:

http://www.facebook.com/group....

You can also follow the draft effort on twitter:

http://twitter.com/DraftHalter...

And there will be an official draft site up this week!

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

Never mind Halter
I hear Rasmussen is polling Hitler against Lincoln, with the poll showing Hitler with a ten-point lead.
I also heard that Assmuffin also polled
Osama bin Laden against Obama among conservatives, and found that Osama led by a 80-20 margin.

I'm going to actually do a small poll among conservative and very conservative voters in Eastern NC on this question, but I suspect what a friend told me about his family was right, that wingnuts really would prefer Osama bin laden  as President to Obama.

[ Parent ]
I'm not going to dismiss this poll in its entirety
Rasmussen's polls have been tilting towards the GOP, but I have a feeling that this poll is still useful.  Looking at the numbers and Rasmussen's tilt towards the GOP, I think the numbers are more like Gilbert 49/Lincoln 42, Coleman 47/Lincoln 44, Cox 47/Lincoln 44, and Hendron 45/Lincoln 44.

What concerns me is that I don't believe Lincoln will improve on these numbers in this year based solely on Lincoln's record.  If the economy improves, she should see an uptick, but it won't be by much.  If she's the candidate, I think this seat will be somewhere between a Tossup to Lean R.  

If Halter is the candidate, I think this seat will become Lean D.  My feeling is that Halter is a better fit for the Arkansas electorate and won't be tied to Lincoln's votes in the Senate.  He will also be a more effective campaigner if he joins the race than Lincoln.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

What amuses me
Kim "that jew" Hendren - 47
Blanche Lincoln - 39

Stay classy Arkansas.  You're right up there with Louisiana and their infatuation with diaper boy Vitter.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

How many people know that though?
The thing that probably gives her hope is judgment at the moment is completely on her and Obama. She will vastly outraise these idiots and when an actual campaign begins things could look different. But she is in a deep hole.
[ Parent ]
Agreed, most people here don't know who Kim Hendren is.
And his back of the pack status will keep it that way.  This is a state that rejected Jim Holt (now running for senate again) twice-and he's the biggest gay and immigrant baiter around.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
AR-Sen: Getting Uglier | 36 comments

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