Polls have now closed in Massachusetts, as Martha Coakley and Scott Brown square off to replace Ted Kennedy in the Senate. In the primary, we got our first nibble of results fifteen minutes after polls closed, so hopefully we won’t be waiting too long for the first trickle of numbers to come in tonight.
RESULTS: Boston Globe | Associated Press | The Boston Channel | WBZTV
RESOURCES: Town benchmarks (Wasserman’s chart) | Jeff’s projection model
9:33PM: (Crisitunity): Coakley missed most of her baselines:
Agawam 35/64 (should’ve been 41/57 under 2008 model)
Andover 41/58 (should’ve been 44/55)
Braintree 37/62 (should’ve been 38/60)
Fall River 57/41 (should’ve been 61/38)
Needham 52/47 (should’ve been 54/45)
New Bedford 59/39 (should’ve been 62/37)
Springfield 61/37 (should’ve been 65/34)
Wellesley 50/50 (should’ve been 53/46)
Westfield 36/62 (should’ve been 41/57)
Fitchburg was 40/59, almost exactly how Suffolk pegged it. (Should’ve been 48/50, the biggest underperformance I’ve seen.)
But we beat the spread in Belmont: 59/40 (should’ve been 57/41)
and Quincy was right on: 46/53 (should’ve been 46/52)
9:23PM: The Associated Press has called this one for Big Brown. Say hello to your newest Senator from Massachusetts: Republican Scott Brown!
9:23PM: Coakley has conceded, according to Cillizza.
9:20PM: With two-thirds of the vote in, Jeff’s model has nudged up to somewhere between 47.7 and 47.94% for Coakley.
9:13PM: 1405 precincts are now in, and Brown is holding firm at 53-46. I don’t see how Coakley wins this, but look on the bright side, Democrats: at least they’ll be a special election for Scott Brown’s Senate seat! Democrats only have a 34-5 margin of control in that body!
9:04PM: 1298 precincts in, and Brown leads by almost 90,000 votes. (53-46) Coakley’s on pace to end up somewhere between 47.6-47.8%.
9:03PM: Using the Jeff model, Coakley is on pace to 47.5% (’08) or 47.85% (’96). Not looking so hot.
8:58PM: 980 precincts are in, and Brown leads by 52-47.
8:55PM: 875 precincts are now in, and Brown is up 53-46. Wasserman tweeted earlier that he thinks that Scott Brown has won.
8:54PM: Sorry folks — we’re getting utterly slammed with traffic tonight and the site is experiencing some server issues.
8:51PM: 738 precincts are in, and Brown leads 52-47.
8:40PM: We’re up to 445 precincts now, and Brown is holding onto his 53-46 lead (or a 33,000 vote gap).
8:35PM: 283 precincts in, and Brown still leads by 53-46 (or about 18,000 votes).
8:32PM: 243 precincts in, and Brown’s up to 53-46.
8:29PM: Jeff: Under his 2008 model, Coakley is projected to win 49.2% of the vote based on the returns so far. But using the 1996 model, she’s projected to win 52.5%. Still a nailbiter.
8:27PM: 143 precincts in, and Brown leads 51-48.
8:22PM: 116 (of 2168) precincts are now in, and Brown leads by 52-47.
8:20PM: From Jeff: “Coakley’s underperforming the baseline by just a little bit. Model sez 48.7% Coakley by 2008; 49.8% Coakley by 1996.” Of course, we know that the model is not perfect, but this is looking pretty tight so far.
8:18PM: 36 precincts are now in, and Brown has a 10-point lead.
8:14PM: The AP has a few numbers in from 12 precincts, where Scott Brown leads by 54-45.
8:10PM: Rasmussen just released some details on their e-night poll. Among those who decided in the last few days, Coakley has a 47-41 advantage. Among those who made up their mind over a month ago, Coakley has a “big advantage”. I guess this race hinges on just how well Brown is going among those who made up their mind within the past month, but not within the past few days.
please please let Martha Coakley win! I just finished reading Kennedy’s memoir and I really don’t want a teabagger to have this seat
I think this along with Hillary losing the Democratic Primary to Obama have to be the 2 biggest campaign blunders since Dewey’s loss to Truman.
30 points in 3 weeks. Wow. Her campaign staff should never ever be hired again. Also, someone should challenge Coakley for her AG seat next election. It can’t be hard to take it.
It’s the people’s decision and we all have to respect that, whether they vote for Coakley or Brown. Not everybody reads this blog and forms their opinion that way.
I think we can probably still keep a decent SNR here.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
where it’s now 2:10 AM so hoping this ends soon ! No ganja breaks allowed.
Did anyone see the Coakley memo blasting other Dems and blaming the Coakley polling on the underwear bomber and Wall Street bailout?
The Atlantic does a nice job blowing up the major points in the memo.
Coakley is a joke.
Model says:
51-49 Coakley using 08
43-57 Brown using 96.
Source
Brown 6,931
Coakley 5,766
Fake Kennedy 123
according to MSNBC
Brown opens up a 10 point lead in early returns.
But who knows?
by just a little bit.
1.52% below 2008
0.40% below 1996
Model sez 48.7% Coakley by 2008; 49.8% Coakley by 1996.
I’m going to play Burnout Paradise, I can’t watch.
which is pretty good, mixed results so far. I suppose it may all depends on where turnout is higher.
boston globe is dead.
http://elections.cbslocal.com/… is the most up to date.
Ashland, Bolton, Gosnold, Holland, Middleton, Monroe, Oxford, Southampton
Brown won every one except Monroe, which went narrowly for Coakley
I think I am going to be sick. I never thought this would happen. Ughh!!!
Brown 52 Coakley 47
What she needs in Concord, Cambridge, Lowell and Springfield?
69/29 Coakley
see, that time working in Lowell paid off
We’re still in it.
The Boston Channel link has a live video feed on their site if you don’t want to just stare at numbers all night
That’s outperforming Obama with 94% of precincts in. So some signs of at least a little hope.
I have no idea how to compare the baselines as some of those places aren’t listed in the baselines diary.
Coakley’s splitting the baselines. 1.1% above 96, 1.6% under 08.
Translates to 49.2% under 2008, 52.5% under 1996.
The trend’s good.
Springfield: 80/19 good guys
Worcester: 75/23 good guys
Cambridge: 88/11 good guys
Lynn: 78/20 good guys
all with under 5% in
And little from Cambridge, Springfield, and Worcester. Nothing from Boston.
17,000
is the more relevant baseline for current partisanship. But then, they’re both worryingly close right now.
49.31% under 08
50.04% under 96
Brown w/ 53% per WBZTV (238/2168 reporting)
winning Nantucket by 3 points is kind of discouraging
msnbc
But we’ve still yet to hear from Boston, I think.
despite the Boston Globe calling Cohasset for Coakley before the polls even closed, she actually got smashed there. It’s not terrible news because it’s a small town and it’s the type of place that Brown needs to overperform in to win, but the margin by which she got beat is a bit discouraging.
Brown is getting 47% there. By comparison, McCain got 33% there in 2008. That’s not good. For you Democrats, anyways
..but I do not like what I see. Big margins for Brown in Worcester burbs and some of the parts of Metrowest I thought Coakley would do OK in.
I like the Lowell and Worcester numbers, but have no idea what parts of those cities they come from.
18,000 by AP
Woburn is fully in according to the AP and Brown won 59-40. Coakley’s going to need to do some major overperforming in the Democratic strongholds. FWIW Concord is fully in and she won 61%,
Only 10 of the 254 Boston precincts have reported yet, but Stephen Lynch said that in Southie there were very few Coakley signs and lots of homemade Brown signs.
From the 77 towns that are 100% in, she is experiencing a drop from Obama’s numbers of 14.58% (unweighted, pure percentage average) and 15.43% (weighted based on total people who voted in the towns).
This number has to get down to 12%
Turnout was high in the areas Brown won. He kept consistent with the 8,000+ votes that McCain got in Woburn, while Coakley dropped significantly. It also looks like turnout and vote margin might not be high enough in Boston, if the following precincts are like the ones so far.
That would be something for a tuesday in the middle of winter.
Massive pickups in Cambridge (should get it), Boston (not so sure if it will be enough), Lowell, and Pittsfield, among others.
An adviser of Brown’s says
Report is that Coakley has conceded and has called to congratulate Brown.
Brown won Barnstable (where Hyannis is located) big. This night just sucks.
AP just called it for Brown.
Margin still even getting wider. Thanks a lot Coakley.
This must be a sad day for Democrats. I wonder if Uncle Teddy is spinning in his grave right now?
We march forward.
…with the precincts that are left.
Funny how Cambridge has had only one precinct reporting, after I read somewhere tonight (can’t remember where) that Cambridge is “fast” and reports right away. But even if Coakley wins every precinct there by 900 votes like she did the first one, that makes up roughly just one-third of the margin, and Boston, too, isn’t looking like it can make up anywhere near enough.
It’s in the ballpark of what I thought it would be the past couple days, basically a mid-single digit margin. No question her failure to do persuasion in December and early January cost her victory. But the anti-Democratic environment, too, cost her 5-10 points, so what would have been maybe a 10-point win even with her bad campaign in a neutral environment instead became a defeat.
On bright side, Coakley’s political career is all but over and Dems will never again take a race for granted in MA. Not that this doesn’t sooth the massive hit will be to the Democratic party.
FUCK THIS ALL!!!!!!! DEMOCRATS HAVE ALWAYS BEEN IDIOTS AND ALWAYS WILL BE! I swear if I hear one word out of Glen Beck’s big mouth then I will explode! Right now Im too pissed off to say anything else. Im going to bed! Night everyone
a sick feeling this race was turning into New Jersey in November. Coakley like Corzine surged towards the end, but the independents were in Brown’s camp and nothing Coakley could do would lure them away.
Coakley’s political career is over. Anything she runs for ever again, she will get her ass kicked. Probably won’t even be AG for much longer.
So Massachusetts just voted to repudiate Teddy Kennedy and “the cause of his life,” damning the Party is has supported steadfastly since the years of JFK.
I find it hard not to freak out about this. The only State that supported George McFreakingGovern in 1972 just voted for a Republican for federal office. It just voted to destroy the Democratic agenda in Washington. It just voted for a more conservative health care bill, since it seems that the ping-ponging strategy will have to be used now.
How the hell did this happen?
The nominee should’ve been Cong. Capuano-D..he would have been able to have distanced himself from alot of the negatives coming out of the “O” Administration, and would’ve been a stronger campaigner.
On to the next battle, thanks again for all the Geeky maps & stats!!
We one a whole lot that we where not suppose to win in 06′ and 08′ and it is what is. Plus Brown is not going to be a Palin rethug, after HCR I think we will be able to get him to vote with us on many things, at least if he wants to stand a chance in 12′, and we will get this seat back. As for HCR it is not dead yet, the House could swallow the Senate bill or we could get Snowe or Collins. Is Brown going to be seated tommorow?
Sometimes there is a silver lining in a crushing defeat. The real effect of this race is what Democrats nationwide, especially Obama, learn from this. Most importantly, American voters (regardless of education, race, income etc) have VERY SHORT MEMORIES and ALWAYS look for someone to blame.
With that in mind, if Dems go scurring into the corner with their tails behind them, then they deserve a 1 term presidency and congressional minority. This includes listening to the plutocratic DLCers that gave Bill Clinton a defensive presidency for 6 yrs out of his 8 yrs in office. Go down that road, and Nov 2008 will be a permanent myth NEVER AGAIN to repeat itself.
Obama faces the proverbial fork-in the road, which will determine if he will be Carter or Reagan. Both faced a lot of adversity w/in 2 yrs in office, but both reacted differently to it. Which will Obama choose?
The Republicans certainly have an outside chance of turning the Senate to a 51-49 margin in 2010. They would need to run the board with Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Illinois (probably doubtful), Nevada, New York (I think doubtful), North Dakota (easy pickup), and Pennsylvania, while also protecting Burr and the open seats of Missouri (think we can win it), New Hampshire, and Ohio. Unfortunately Coakley just took a significant amount of DSCC resources and got nothing to show for it.
Brown has nearly as many votes as McCain got.
Obviously Ted (RIP) couldn’t help it in this case, but the point still stands.
This is Mass…can only imagine how the other more conservative 49 states will play out in 10 months time.
Obama dropped 20 points, the Dems are going to lose 25-30 House seats and we’ve spent 6 months of Obama’s presidency to be 1 Sen seat short.
Thanks Coakley! You’ve single handily killed Health Care reform. I hope your vacation was worth the 40k lives a year that will die due to not being covered.
If Brown wants to run for re-election, he will have to support a progressive jobs bill, financial market reform, and EFCA.
Yes Coakley ran a bad campaign but there’s more to it than that. I guess everytime we lose a race now it will because the candidate “sucked”.
time for you to get on the phones and convince the Congressional Progressive Caucus and blue dogs who supported the house bill to swallow the senate bill.
Because Jim Webb won’t vote for cloture until Scott Brown is in the senate, and you bet he won’t be the last.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/…
I clearly deserve some tequila, Call of Duty (almost lvl 70!), and a ganj break.
If I were Coakley, Id move to NW Texas as I wouldnt be able to show my face to a Democrat ever again.