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MA-Sen Results Thread

by: Crisitunity

Tue Dec 08, 2009 at 8:02 PM EST


Polls are closing in the Bay State, as Martha Coakley, Michael Capuano, and friends square off. All anecdotes about turnout suggest "very low."

MA results: Boston Globe (including fancy graphic interface!) | Mass SoS

9:05 pm (David): I wonder if the outcome would have been different had Pagliuca and Khazei not run - if Capuano might have had a better shot at consolidating the non-Coakley vote. He got a lucky freebie, though: Capuano still gets to keep his seat in the House.
8:58 pm (David): The AP has called it for Coakley.
8:55 pm: I'll check back in in a while, but it's looking like an easy Coakley victory; the concessions should be imminent. Btw, on the GOP side, Scott Brown beats Jack E. Robinson by a convincing 88-12.
8:50 pm: At 40% reporting, it's still 48-27-13-12. We're getting to the point of mathematical impossibility for Capuano.
8:45 pm: It looks like the Globe's interface is backwards, which makes perfect sense why Coakley would be getting 71% in Capuano's home of Somerville while Capuano would be winning all the small rural towns. So flip the town results around in your head.
8:45 pm: Now we're up to 22%. It's 48-27-14-12. Another bad sign for Capuano: losing in Boston, too. Coakley's up 46-32 on Capuano in Beantown.
8:35 pm: Up to 14% reporting, and still 47-26-14-11. Here's the really bad news for Capuano: Cambridge is starting to report -- where he needs to absolutely crush if he's going to make any ground -- and at 3% reporting, Coakley is leading Capuano by a similar 47-26 margin. The main difference in Cambridge is Khazei pulling in 24%, with Pagliuca only at 4.
8:30 pm: Not much change in momentum. Now we're at 7% reporting, and it's 48-25-16-11.
8:15 pm: With 1% reporting, it's Coakley at 47, Capuano at 26, Khazei at 17, and Pagliuca at 10.

Crisitunity :: MA-Sen Results Thread
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Capuano's district already has low turnout by Mass standards
I can't see how he wins but hey, never say never. I hope it will be interesting to watch.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Blah
That map seems to be messed up unfortunately. It says Capuano is ahead in most towns when really Coakley is.

At any rate Coakley is killing with the first 1% in.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


6% and Coakley
maintains a 20 point lead.  

[ Parent ]
It looks like the colors are reversed on the map
Coakley is green, Capuano is blue, as opposed to how they're coded above.

[ Parent ]
Capuano getting slaughtered
basically everywhere in the state. His only meaningful lead is in Cambridge and 21 points isn't enough to overcome Coakley's 394792384723 point lead basically everywhere else.

looks like I'll have to find another way to spend my Tuesday night, this one will be over soon.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Does anyone really have strong feelings about this?
It seems like we have one liberal Democrat facing off against another. My soft preference would be to have another woman in the Senate, but I would go by issues first.  

I prefer Coakley
But ya, it's not amn especially strong preference.  Both should have similar voting records.

[ Parent ]
I'm kind of "meh" on Coakley
She just seems to be a bland career politician with no real fire, and her demagoguing on abortion with regards to voting for the final health care bill was annoying. I'm sure she'll end up being a reliably Democratic vote, but we need leaders, not backbenchers, from blue states. I would probably have voted for Capuano if I lived in Mass, but none of the candidates really seemed very exciting. As I've said before, for such a blue state, Massachusetts really doesn't have many outstanding Democrats -- aside from Barney Frank, of course.

[ Parent ]
Coakley will need to grow into her position
whereas Capuano would have been more likely to get active early.  We'll see how she does in the next few years.  But I am sincerely hoping that she develops herself as a leader on the floor of the Senate and in passing legislation and not in just becoming another jabbering idiot on the Sunda morning talk circuit.

[ Parent ]
Frank
And of course Frank is backing Capuano. Really I guess I look at this as there's a known and an unknown - and Capuano's voting record couldn't be any more pleasing to progressives. Back when 538 analyzed this race and the voting records of possible candidates that settled it for me. I'm not fully convinced that Coakley is deeply knowledgeable about national issues, or that she'll vote as well. Capuano has voted the "right" way almost all the time, even when he's part of a tiny minority.

[ Parent ]
Since they were pretty identical
on issues involving the immediate future, and this is Massachusetts, I voted based on potential to grow in the job.  To become a leader in the Senate and be strong voice for New England liberalism on the national scene.  Capuano is what he is, it's all out in plain sight.  Gave him every benefit of the doubt.  Went with Coakley, though.  She starts small (and she's petite, too) but has grown into proficiency and leadership stature and quality every step up the ladder.

[ Parent ]
I live in MA
And a lot of people I talked to today didn't vote because it didn't really matter to them who won the D primary, since they're pretty much ideologically identical. (for that matter, I feel the same)

Boston Globe Map
Is it just me or is the Boston Globe map backwards?  

It is
Coakley and Capuano are reversed.

Khazei just won a town, tiny Alford on the New York border.

In other news Capuano is still getting his ass kicked just about everywhere and this race should get called soon.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Who is Scott Brown, the guy winning the GOP nomination?
Some third-tier stiff with no hope of breaking 35% in the general?

State Senator and former Cosmo pinup boy
He probably could get to 35% (it will be a low-turnout special election), but I doubt he'd go much past it.

[ Parent ]
Low Turnout
With low turnout in a January election, I see him getting at least 40%.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, Scott Brown's not a half-bad candidate
Given the low-turnout nature, I could see him mustering about 40%, although probably not too much more than that.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
State sen
He probably will break 35% (his district isn't that Republican) but he will still be eaten for dinner by Martha Coakley.

Btw, Capuano is winning Cambridge (although 21 points is nowhere near enough to cancel out his deficit everywhere else).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Wow
Capuano getting CRUSHED in Somerville, 71-20-9%. Jeez.

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

No
The numbers are reversed. That's Capuano WINNING 71-20.

Still, if he can't win places like Belmont which are fairly similar to Cambridge and Somerville, then he is really screwed. To have a legit chance he would have to win Markey's district, probably Tierney's and Tsongas' too. At this rate it would be a miracle for him to lose fewer than 9 congressional districts.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
yep

He's not winning where he really should, the Irish-Italian suburbia like Woburn, Billerica, Quincy, Weymouth.  Even the really blue collar places like Lowell or Methuen.

The TV stations are going to call this for Coakley in about 5 minutes, at 9 o'clock.  If they haven't already.


[ Parent ]
AP called it for Coakley. nt


[ Parent ]
He's even losing Belmont and Arlington.
which to me suggests his problem was probably name recognition.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Of course not
The local machines/organizations were working hard for Coakley.

I am actually surprised that Capuano did as well in Methuen as he did.


[ Parent ]
It's reversed.
Capuano is crushing in Somerville (and is leading in Cambridge as well). The Globe's site has the topline fixed, but the map is still showing Coakley and Capuano reversed.

[ Parent ]
The "fancy interface" seems useless
I have to say that I was really impressed by the NYT map for the NJ race.

Correction: Same as with Cambridge
It's Capuano who's winning in Boston. Albeit only by 8 points.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


ZOMG Jack Robinson won a town!
Heath, on the Vermont border.

Too bad he's getting crushed 88-12 in the rest of the state. Must be the female/gay guy vote coming out for Scott Brown.  

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


too bad
Capuano would have been a strong progressive. I feel like Coakley will be more of a generic democrat

Neither one seems like a "giant of the Senate"
Both of these candidates appear to be good progressives but rather ordinary Senate candidates.  Then again we can't expect anyone to fill Ted Kennedy's shoes.  The Senate giants are a dying breed.

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure if we know
It takes time for Senators to become "giants," if they ever do.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
It's not that
I just don't think we will ever see the breed of larger than life Senators we used to have.  People like Ted Kennedy, McCain, Byrd, etc. ar a dying breed.  I'm just not seeing a young crop of Senators so influential on the horizon.  Even the leadership of both parties (McConnell and Reid) have little in the way of charisma, influence or leadership.  

[ Parent ]
I'll throw out some names for you
Schumer, Sanders, Franken if he has a long tenure, Durbin. Others, we'll have to see about.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Well, we kind of saw it coming
Even though the state is 40% in and Boston is 18% in, there is basically no way for Capuano to win. He is trailing 48-27. Still, we kind of knew Coakley would pull ahead.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


Yep
Currently, Coakley is leading with 143,000 votes to Capuano's 83,000 votes. Capuano might narrow the race by a few points but that is pretty unlikely.

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


This and T-Mac go to show...
when an underdog releases an optimistic poll on the eve of the election it's probably bull.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
And it wasn't even that optimistic!
I do think it's stuff like that which makes people want to instinctively mistrust internal polls, though. To claim you're down 7 (and have mo') but to lose by 20... that's some bad polling.

[ Parent ]
As for David's question, I don't think so
Coakley would have likely crushed Capuano one-on-one too. And even if it were close, she would have apparently needed a vanishingly small number of the "other" votes.

I think you are probably right
But I'm suggesting the race might have taken a different path from the start. Still, probably very hard, as there just wasn't much daylight between the two.

[ Parent ]
Sweet
They added the margin of lead bubbles and fixed the color swap.

I'm waiting for Pagliuca's hometown (Weston) to come in and see if he won it. Even Khazei has won a town, albeit not his place of residence. It would be a shame if Pagliuca moneybombed the race only to not win a single town.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


What's Wrong with the MassSofS website?
The words 'Primary Results' do not lead to a link or anything else.

The Secretary of the Commonwealth site is awful
It's always been awful; it never has results until the official results are certified.

[ Parent ]

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