Quinnipiac (1/8-12, likely voters, no trend lines):
Richard Blumenthal (D): 62
Rob Simmons (R): 27
Undecided: 10
Richard Blumenthal (D): 64
Linda McMahon (R): 23
Undecided: 11
Richard Blumenthal (D): 66
Peter Schiff (R): 19
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ±2.6%)
When longtime Connecticut AG Richard Blumenthal pulled the trigger on the race to replace retiring Sen. Chris Dodd, we immediately changed our rating of this race from Tossup to Lean D. (Before Dodd's decision to drop out, we had already agreed in private to shift the race to Lean R, but hadn't gotten around to making a formal change.) Before now, we've only had a couple of pollsters to base that rating on: PPP gave Blumenthal 30-point leads over Simmons and McMahon, and Rasmussen pegged the race at a mildly closer but still uncompetitive 20+ point spread for Team Blue. Adding Quinnipiac to the mix paints an even unfriendlier picture for the Republicans, with Blumenthal up anywhere between 35 and a comical 47 points on the GOP field.
There's little doubt that this poll represents a high water mark for Blumenthal. His campaign has just begun, and he's still experiencing a degree of euphoria from many Nutmeggers who are glad to have the chance to vote for a friendly name in the place of the beleaguered Dodd. As it stands now, Blumenthal enjoys a monstrous 74-13 favorable rating, which includes a 62-29 rating from Republicans and 74-15 from independents. He's clearly at the height of his non-partisan appeal following his years of goodwill built up by his service as AG. A general election campaign will bring those numbers back down to earth a bit (unlike, say, Mark Warner's free pass in 2008), but he would have to make more than one monumental mistake in order to let this race drift back to the competitive column. As long as Blumenthal puts in the time (see: Coakley, Martha) and doesn't hire a complete bozo for a campaign manager, the GOP field will be grasping at straws here. SSP now rates this race as Likely Democratic.
Oh, and in case you're curious, Qunnipiac also polled the primaries: Blumenthal leads little-known Democrat Merrick Alpert by 82-4 (Alpert got as much as 22% against Dodd in Q's previous poll), and Simmons leads McMahon 37-27, compared to the 28-17 spread from November.
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