Research 2000 for Daily Kos (11/30-12/02, likely voters, 9/8-10 in parens):
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 42 (44)
Gilbert Baker (R): 41 (37)
Undecided: 17 (19)Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 44 (45)
Curtis Coleman (R): 39 (37)
Undecided: 17 (18)Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 45 (46)
Tom Cox (R): 31 (29)
Undecided: 24 (25)Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 46 (47)
Kim Hendren (R): 30 (28)
Undecided: 24 (25)
(MoE: ±4%)
Rasmussen (12/1, likely voters, 9/28 in parens):
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 39 (39)
Gilbert Baker (R): 46 (47)
Undecided: 9 (8)Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40 (41)
Curtis Coleman (R): 44 (43)
Undecided: 9 (11)Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40 (40)
Tom Cox (R): 43 (43)
Undecided: 10 (11)Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 39 (41)
Kim Hendren (R): 46 (44)
Undecided: 9 (10)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
These are Moe Szyslak numbers – plug-fugly. In fact, Tom Jensen says things are actually worse than they appear: In PPP’s recent poll of AR-02, undecided voters in that district gave Lincoln wretched 11-58 favorables (yeah, you read that right). It’s starting to make me wonder how Lincoln can survive, especially if Baker winds up being the GOP nominee – and it makes these other numbers from R2K all the more interesting:
Bill Halter (D): 34
Gilbert Baker (R): 42
Undecided: 24Bill Halter (D): 35
Curtis Coleman (R): 40
Undecided: 25Bill Halter (D): 36
Tom Cox (R): 32
Undecided: 32Bill Halter (D): 36
Kim Hendren (R): 31
Undecided: 33
(MoE: ±4%)
Lt. Gov. Bill Halter is mooting a primary challenge to Lincoln, and as you can see, all of the Republican candidates fare identically against him as they do against the incumbent. The big difference, though, is that Lincoln’s overall favorables are underwater at 41-50, while Halter is in positive territory at 36-25 – and two-fifths of the state doesn’t even know him yet. On account of that, I have to believe Halter would do better than Lincoln once he’s better-known. But the first question is, can he win a primary?
Blance Lincoln (D-inc): 42
Bill Halter (D): 26
Undecided: 32
(MoE: ±5%)
Forty-two percent is not where an incumbent wants to be in a potential primary matchup, especially against a guy who’s unknown to a third of Democrats. Lincoln’s numbers among members of her own party are fairly decent, 62-32. But among Dems, Halter clocks in at a nifty 55-11, and he clearly has room to grow
I’d also like to point out that Halter is hardly some unelectable left-wing gadfly. To the contrary: He won statewide office in 2006 with a higher share of the vote than even super-popular Gov. Mike Beebe. And while I certainly wouldn’t expect Halter to be a progressive standard-bearer, there’s little question he’d be better on healthcare than Lincoln, given that’s how he’s hoping to get traction against her.
In the end, I don’t see how we wouldn’t be better off with Halter, whose negatives almost surely wouldn’t wind up as awful as Lincoln’s, and who can’t be tied to DC in quite the same way. It wouldn’t be an easy fight – waging war against an incumbent seldom is. But I’d like to see him try.
(Note: According to the SSP calendar, Arkansas’s filing deadline is March 8th and the primary is May 18th.)
RaceTracker Wiki: AR-Sen
But for the current political environment in Congress, it would be quite useful for Lincoln to feel some healthcare pressure from the left.
In principle Lincoln should be as good as it gets from a state like Arkansas, but I think she’s learning the wrong lessons from Landrieu’s experience.
Any idea how she fared in the polls leading up to the 2004 election? I’m just wondering considering that was her first time running for re-election.
Just wondering if she normally polls weak?
Did a quick Google search and found nothing.
I…man…these numbers are horrendous. And what’s Lincoln done to deserve this anyway? Seems like she’s always been quite popular until the last six months or so, all because she happens to have a (D) next to her name.
Hate to say it, but she’s probably DOA in the general. What a shame. If I were her, I’d just retire. It’s not worth having to funnel money, time, and effort only to face an electorate that has clearly gone cuckoo for cocoa puffs in such a short amount of time.
I’m starting to think that Landrieu got lucky having a 2008 re-election. If she was up this year, she’d probably be a goner as well. For the love of guacamole, Louisianans are going to keep a known adulterer just because he has a nice pretty (R) next to his name this year, because they’ve jumped off the same deep end that their Arkansas friends have.
He has started raising money and revived his old website.
He only raised 12k last IIRC and came within 9 pts
Color me shocked!
Not that I’d be that sad to see her go, but it would suck to give up a seat to the GOP. We’d be better with Bill Halter because he’s got some room to grow, whereas Lincoln is known to practically the whole electorate already.
If she’s in so much trouble, why hasn’t Arkansas’ lone GOP congresscritter decided to throw his hat into the ring?
Hasn’t Gilbert Baker antagonized the state party and GOP base somewhere along the way? I’ll be interested to see how the primary plays out. I think it’d be hard to name any one of these candidates a front runner at this point.
Lincoln will outraise any of these candidates by a mammoth margin, but if the environment in Arkansas is absolutely toxic come November, it won’t really matter.
Bill Halter is not some unknown, he’s the Lieutenant Governor, and as the diary states, he got even MORE of the vote in 2006 than super-popular Governor Mike Beebe did. And then he spearheaded a very popular state lottery as Lieutenant Governor.
It’s funny to see over a third of Democrats still have no opinion of the guy, even when they probably VOTED for him.
campaigning for Obama and standing up for LGBT issues no less-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
It’s time to dump Blanche Lincoln. Lt. Gov. Halter sounds like a terrific improvement, and he might actually improve our odds of holding the seat.
So yeah, we may as well stick to our principles and cheer on the liberal guy.