Google Ads


Site Stats

SSP Daily Digest: 7/24

by: Crisitunity

Fri Jul 24, 2009 at 12:22 PM EDT


FL-Sen: Another sign that the wheels are falling off the Marco Rubio bus: he's cutting back on senior staff. His campaign manager, Brian Seitchik, will be off the payroll next week, and his fundraiser, Ann Herberger, is also gone. About the changes, Rubio said, "This is not a purge or anything, quite the contrary." In other words, they're probably out of money.

NH-Sen: Ovide Lamontagne picked up a key backer, as the conservative base continues to look for an alternative to the may-be-a-RINO Kelly Ayotte. Former State Rep. Maureen Mooney, who was John McCain's liaision to NH conservatives during the 2008 primary campaign, has said she's backing Lamontagne, saying he's a "principled and experienced conservative."

SC-Sen, SC-01: Interesting rumblings out of the Palmetto State: now that Jim DeMint has turned himself into Public Enemy #1 in the last few weeks, all of a sudden people sound interested in challenging him. State Senator Brad Hutto was in Washington meeting with the DSCC about the race; Hutto has been looking for a chance to move up, starting with the 2010 governor's race, but deferred to friend and state Sen. Vincent Shaheen on that one. Attorney Ashley Cooper (a former Fritz Hollings aide) is reportedly also interested in taking on DeMint, or also in running in the 1st, where Rep. Henry Brown barely won last year.

NC-Gov: Civitas, a local Republican pollster, stops to gawk at the Bev Perdue trainwreck, finding that her approval is at 30/44 and that right now only 26% would vote to re-elect her. They also look all the way ahead to 2012 and find that Republican Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory would win a rematch, 46-32.

MN-06: Independence Party 2008 candidate Bob Anderson, whose 10% of the vote may have tipped the balance to Rep. Michele Bachmann last year, says that he may make another run in 2010. (Don't forget that while Elwyn Tinklenberg received the IP's endorsment in 2008, Minnesota doesn't allow fusion voting with candidates running on multiple ballot lines, so Anderson went ahead and ran in the primary, winning it and getting the IP nod for the general. Our best hope here may be for Minnesota to follow Oregon's recent lead and legalize fusion voting.)

NY-23: In the 23rd, with Darrel Aubertine out (and New York Senate fans heaving a sigh of relief), the Dems still seem to be casting about for a replacement. Yesterday evening was the extended deadline for receiving applications, and some of the remaining serious contenders still haven't applied. Dan French, a lawyer and former Daniel Moynihan aide, and former NY-23 candidate Robert Johnson seemed to have not been planning to run (but contingent on Aubertine running), and said yesterday that they were interested but would have to have the requisite talk with their families first. (So do the Dems extend the deadline again? That remains to be seen.) 2008 candidate Michael Oot has already submitted his application, though. Another name for the Conservative Party nom has surfaced: "locally famous" conservative activist Jon Alvarez, who is currently serving in Iraq.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 7/24
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Perdue
What exactly did Bev Perdue do that is resulting in her getting all these low approval ratings.  

Rubio
I'm disappointed in how Rubio seems to be doing.  Seems like the far right is ambiguous about whether to go all in here.  The more they sit on their hands, the more likely it will seem Rubio cannot win, which just encourages them to stay out.  It's a downward spiral right now for Rubio.  He needs to latch onto some issue to stir things up.  Maybe he could go wingnut on immigration?  I'd think the national anti-immigrant crowd would embrace a Hispanic spokesman on the issue to give them cover for any racism charges.

Rubio's problem is - and I say this with as much kindness as I can muster -
having watched him on YouTube and following his Twitter account, he doesn't have any sort of natural charisma or rhetorical style, especially when it comes to articulating his political positions.

He says he's pro-life. Okay, what does that mean? Completely anti-abortion, exceptions for rape and incest, what? Similarly, he says he's against gay marriage but has "mixed thoughts" on a FMA - and then leaves it at that. He gets in a few jabs at Crist on the stimulus but can't articulate what's wrong with it besides the generic GOP talking points. And yeah, he takes the far right route on immigration, but again shows no fervor for the subject. I've had more spirited debates with my grandpa. Does the guy have a speechwriter? An adviser? Anyone actually prepping the guy?

Even as a Democrat who's totally opposite everything Rubio stands for, it's almost frustrating to watch, knowing the guy's been handed a great challenge - tough, and maybe unwinnable, but he could at least make a dent and rally the base - and he's tossing it out the window. Hell, I could run a better campaign than that, were I inclined to lend support to Floridian wingnuts.


[ Parent ]
From the You Tube clips I have seen, ..
charisma is his strong suit.

No one expects detailed specifics at this stage of a campaign.  It's all about setting up an ideological divide. And there is plenty to be divided on between Rubio and Crist.

The right isn't willing to put it's money where it's mouth is. This guy is tailor made for them, but it's a tough economy and right wingers are thrifty to begin with. They want to see him show some fundraising prowess before casting their lot with him.  That's why CFG is so important here. They can make him or break him.  


[ Parent ]
I guess we have different standards for charisma then
He's young and rather handsome but he doesn't seem any more thrilling than the current Republican leadership. Maybe I've just been spoiled from following Obama and Franken in '08 since they both had a natural aptitude for speaking engagingly and in depth, but even for a primary, Rubio is leaning too hard on the stock answers.

It also doesn't help that he spends more time on Twitter talking about what he's eating than the supposed fresh new ideas he's been collecting. If he's got this book of 100 ideas to change Florida, why isn't he sharing some of them? Isn't Twitter the perfect venue for that? The ideological line has been drawn and re-drawn, it's time to get serious and prove he's more than just Charlie Crist's competitor.

Surprised CFG hasn't jumped in actually, granted it's harder for Rubio to win his primary - and there's no way on God's green Earth he's going to match Crist's fundraising -  but I think he's way more competitive than Toomey. It's not like they have to worry about damaging either candidate for the general, because I see this seat as a Republican pick-up either way.


[ Parent ]
Franken......
I thought he was a terrible speaker.  It's hard to connect to someone speaking when they cant manage to get a sentence out of their mouth.  Any other Minnesotans notice that and get annoyed by it?  

[ Parent ]
This doesn't sound like a Charisam challenged candidate to me...
[ Parent ]
Hutto's been mulling Senate bid for months
I suspect former SC Dem Party Chair Joe Erwin's announcement  that he would not seek the seat had more influence on Hutto's decision to run than DeMint's latest antics did. (Though DeMint's worried response to the new DNC ads in SC helped show would-be challengers that he's not invincible.)

I hope Ashley Cooper also considers getting in the race. With Robert Barber, state Rep. Leon Stavrinakis, and Col. Robert Burton all eying the SC-01 seat, the Dem race is likely to be crowded. Cooper might have more impact in the US Senate race.


NY-Sen B
When is Carolyn Maloney going to marry Ralph Nader?

NY-23
Seems like kind of a no-lose proposition, at least for progressive interests. We keep hold of the NY Senate now, hopefully the dissatisfaction with Dede (not even trying) means the Dem, whoever it may be, has a leg up anyway, and even if not, Dede's probably a vote for at least half of our agenda.

She'll probably lose the priamry
in 2010 anyway, and Dems can pick it up then.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Why do you think so?
Can you supply any evidence that Republican voters in that district won't like a liberal Republican?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
I'm saying this from reading
respones of base peope already, afterall she was chosen by the more rational party county heads and there already appears to be a huge backlash. This district is similarto Boehlert's district, and he was a long time incumbent and he still had tough primary's, and in a somewhat less polarized Republican party, a lot of people have changed their registration in upstate new york of late.

Besides that John McHugh was its old representative, and he was by no means a moderate, just a quite, mainstream conservative, always was, occassionally moderate on environmental issues.

I guess her hope would have to be getting all the liberal rockefeller republicans to turn out and vote for her.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus


[ Parent ]
lots of anecdotal evidence
but generally speaking, the Republican Party's rightward shift, even in historically moderate districts, is pretty obvious.  Most of the GOP voters who propped up the old liberal Republicans have since become Democrats.

I don't think any Republican in favor of same-sex marriage equality could win a contested primary, anywhere in this country.


[ Parent ]
I think
alot of it has to do with front burner issues of the day as well. Sure a gay marriage supporting Republican may not have made it though the primary in 2004, but that issue isnt in the forefront anymore. There are more pressing issues at hand.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

[ Parent ]
Gay marriage
was hardly a more pressing issue in 2004 than it is now, with state after state legalizing it.  If anything, Republican voters seem more adamant about opposing it now, since the idea of legislatures taking it upon themselves to enact it is no longer laughable.

Present company excluded of course, Republican voters seem like they would rather take a Republican who voted for the bailout than they would take one who voted for marriage equality.


[ Parent ]
NY-23
According to this snippet from Hotline, Dan French already submitted his application:

http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...


NJ-GOV
Jon Corzine picks State Sen. Loretta Weinberg as his Lt. Gov.
What do we know about her? Is this a smart pick? At first glance, it obviously sounds much better than that guy from the Apprentice.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


She's a progressive, anti-machine candidate
As good as you'll probably get in New Jersey.

[ Parent ]
is there any particular reason
Why Charlie Cook still has NJ-Gov at Lean D?  I guess he's just not convinced a Repub can win in NJ, even with these huge leads in the early polls.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Some places won't list non-indicted incumbents past tossup
Is Cook one of them?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Apparently.
The one exception I remember he made was Tim Maphoney after his scandal broke.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
And even then
that was a pretty solid and common sense rating of Likely Republican as Mahoney lost 60-40.

That's such a dumb policy (not rating incumbents past toss-up).  I think that does politics and political junkies like us quite a disservice.


[ Parent ]
To a large extent
I remember one of the Cook people (not Charlie Cook himself) saying they got burned by the Moseley-Braun re-election race, where she looked like a goner but then came back to make it pretty close.  So, they instituted this policy.  However, near the end of the 2006 election season, they finally broke down and rated Santorum as solid Democrat.

In other words, they play it very cautious up until the end.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


[ Parent ]
IL-sen primary
Looks like Alexi Giannoulias will get an easy primary since Dan Hynes is running for governor. The only possible known candidates are Cheryle Jackson and Chris Kennedy who wont be that much of a challenge. This will make it easier for Giannoulias to beat Kirk in the general. I would love to see Mark Kirk finally loose an election after barely getting elected to his first term in 2000 and having trouble getting re-elected in 2006 and 2008. If Kirk was a true moderate he would have voted for Obama's stimulus and would be supporting the health care bill. In fact the cap and trade is the only time I have even heard of Kirk going against the republicans.

The bar for "moderatism" for Republicans is lower
To be a "moderate Republican" one need only vote against the party line once or twice here and there.  To be a "non-librul" Democrat, one has to show an extensive record of bucking the party line.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About the Site

SSP Resources

Blogroll

Powered by: SoapBlox