This poll is excellent news

If final matchup is Paul vs. Conway, this seat is likely to go blue. I'm hoping Mongiardo drops out!

---

by: jmartin4s @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 20:24:36 PM UTC

...for John McCain!

---

by: James L. @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 20:34:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good news in more ways than one

Regardless of how crazy many of Paul's views are, his voting will likely make him no worse than the third most often to vote for Obama-backed legislation, and he should be against the wars to boot.

Like it says in that other thread, his Dad votes with the Democratic agenda "when the chips are down" more than any Republican.

And if he wins, that will also make the GOP civil war fully three fronted... establishment-wingnut-Paulist, which should be great for us on the money front and also in getting a few votes on personal freedom bills in the future.

---

by: tommypaine @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 23:25:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ron Paul's isolationism is good in some respects

Such as the invasion of Iraq and probably the 1st Gulf War, but im for what we did in places like Bosnia & Kosovo and for Obama's Afghanistan plan. If we have to go to Darfur, for instance, im hoping it doesnt get held up by isolationist senators. but i doubt we will. If Darfur were in Europe wed probably already be there...but its in 'the dark continent'.

---

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 06:31:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

And thats not a shot at Obama

Not by any means. Really i wasnt even thinking of him when i made the statement.

---

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 06:32:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Getting off track

Brian, here's a good rule of thumb: If you find yourself making posts saying nothing more than "I'm in favor of Policy X" without any mention of electoral significance, then you know you're getting offtopic. SSP is not a place for people to chew the fat on policy.

---

by: James L. @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 07:51:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

My apologies there

I got off track, Im sorry about that.

---

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Thu Dec 24, 2009 at 08:02:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

But i doubt Paul makes it through a GOP primary

Especially since its 1 on 1 with a formidable Republican. I use to be an Evangelical and i know how they think. They are neo-cons and very conservative on civil liberties/national security issues (even though they were the opposite during the Clinton era, fearing the whole "new world order"). Its not just about social issues to them. Those aforementioned issues are very dear to their heart. And make no mistake KY has alot of evangelicals.

---

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 06:36:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Opposite in the Clinton era on civil liberties/national security matters

I meant to say. Around 10 years ago, when i was an Evangelical, there was so much fear of 'big brother' and the 'new world order' in that community. And there still is alot of fear, really...but theyre for policies like the Patriot Act, Gitmo, etc.

---

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 06:39:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

?

Well, if you're going by the poll, then

"the Kentucky general election numbers we'll release Wednesday show Rand Paul doing only one point worse than Trey Grayson against Jack Conway and three points worse against Dan Mongiardo."

Mongiardo would be the better candidate against Paul than Conway.

I know I prefer Mongiardo over Conway.

---

by: RuralDem @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 05:00:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think Rand Paul's views on Guantanamo detainees are refreshing

but they're likely to be unpopular - especially, I would think, in a Republican primary:

" ... it's kind of unclear whether these people are guilty, not guilty ... So I really think deportation or sending them back to their country of origin might be the best way to go.  And none of it's fair, because some of them have been held years and years ..."

I wouldn't go quite that far, but it may come to that if testimony extracted under torture is excluded in some cases.

But that isn't the point, and I don't want to discuss the issue here. All I'm interested in is whether voters in KY - particularly Republicans - are willing to accept this kind of musing.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

---

by: Pan @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 20:25:38 PM UTC

Does the Apple fall far from the tree?

We all know about Ron Paul's " weirder strain of Republican conservatism" but does his son share his views?

Is Rand Paul an isolationist? Is he for abolishing the Fed? Legalizing drugs? Against the Patriot Act?

These are all Ron Paul's libertarian views and part of what makes his strain of Republicanism "wierd".

The question is does Rand agree with his father on these issues?

If not he might be able to position himself as a Tom Colburn anti-establishment type without scaring people off with his father's way out there views.

If Rand is less dogmatic than his father he might be harder to beat than a lot of people think.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...

---

by: izengabe @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 20:27:13 PM UTC

While i think Paul will still have a hard time in the primary

He would have a much harder time a few years ago when the GOP electorate was much more focused on foreign policy and national security. Now its more economics based and Rand probably largely shares their views. I could see Rand positioning himself as more of a Coburn/DeMint type rather than a libertarian like his dad. But hes given no indication so far that hes any different. But there are definite cases where father and son politicians are not identical at all. Ruben Diaz Sr. in the Bronx is supposedly much more conservative, at least socially, than his son whos also a politician. Also I believe ex-Rep. Susan Molinaro of the Staten Island based district is more socially moderate than her father who was also a U.S. Rep.

---

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 20:54:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Bush's also being good examples

Forgot about them. George HW Bush is definitely less conservative than his sons George W. and Jeb.  

---

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 20:55:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Whatever the polls say now

I think Rand Paul would ultimately prove a much harder sell than Grayson statewide.

---

by: SC @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 20:32:04 PM UTC

Agree completely. Bring on RAND! But alas I can't swallow...

...this poll without corroboration.

PPP is a good outfit, this poll has that going for it.

But primaries are difficult to poll accurately, and extremely so this far out.

I'll need to see more polling consistent with this one to believe it.

Meanwhile, I also don't see what exactly is exciting regular Kentucky GOP primary voters about Paul vis-a-vis a proven vote-getting conservative like Greyson.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 20:36:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Paul

If Rand Paul is just like his father and has libertarian beliefs on many social, civil liberties/national security and foreign policy issues...then the GOP base (especially neo-con evangelicals) will inevitably become aware of this and rally to Grayson en masse. And its entirely conceivable that if Paul wins the primary his Dem opponent is to his right on civil liberties/national security and foreign policy. And also on a const. amend. to ban gay marriage assuming Paul is like his dad on that. But really i dont know where the Dems stand on those 3 though i have a hunch Mongiardo is for the amendment. And really its hard to be any more libertarian than Ron Paul on foreign policy and civil liberties/national security unless youre a hardcore libertarian. But this is assuming Rand is like his dad and ive never really heard him try to differentiate himself. Ethan Hastert seems a little different as hes accepting the Main Street PAC money while his dad wasnt aligned with that group at all (but he isnt a far rightie either).

---

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 20:47:01 PM UTC

Still a social conservative...

..on stuff like abortion and I assume gay marriage as well.  And libertarianish beliefs pop up on the far right when Democrats are in power.  John Ashcroft was a critic of some of the privacy violating stuff Bill Clinton wanted to do (such as say the "clipper chip" to help with "domestic surveillance) which is why I mistakenly thought he might not be THAT bad as Attorney General.

With a Democratic president the far right electorate is going to care far more about what he says about say the UN than about Iraq.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

---

by: Taget @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 22:42:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't care what any poll says

if Conway and Paul face each other in November and the DSCC invests in the race it's ours to lose. Paul will be easy to attack, Conway is as strong as they come in Kentucky. I'm not sure Conway will be a very good Senator, but he can win if he's running against Paul.  

---

by: Populista @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 01:15:28 AM UTC

General election numbers

Grayson 40
Conway 33

Grayson 44
Mongiardo 35

Paul 42
Conway 36

Paul 42
Mongiardo 36

http://www.publicpolicypolling...

---

by: conspiracy @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 15:35:13 PM UTC

Conway has much more room

For growth than Mongiardo.

Conway
Favorable 19%
Unfavorable 18%
Not Sure 63%

Grayson
Favorable 19%
Unfavorable 17%
Not Sure 64%

Mongiardo
Favorable 25%
Unfavorable 37%
Not Sure 38%

Paul
Favorable 26%
Unfavorable 23%
Not Sure 51%

---

by: conspiracy @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 15:40:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Interesting

How does a sitting Attorney General or sitting Secretary of State of opposing parties remain so unknown. I mean I could understand if it was a 1 party state, but this is a state that elects both parties statewide.

So strange . . .

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

---

by: trowaman @ Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 20:50:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]