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KY-Sen: Mongiardo Leads Conway, Grayson Leads All

by: James L.

Tue Aug 18, 2009 at 7:09 PM EDT


SurveyUSA (8/15-17, likely voters, no trend lines):

Jack Conway (D): 31
Dan Mongiardo (D): 39
Lillie E. Miller Johnson: 4
Darlene Fitzgerald Price: 3
Maurice Marion Sweeney: 1
Other: 9
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ±3.9%)

This is the first poll we've seen of the Senate primary since the ridiculous Fancy Farm "controversy" that gave Conway a surprisingly stretched-out period of bad press. At the very least for Conway, at least this isn't as deep a hole to climb out of than the one he appeared to be in based on a Mongiardo internal poll from May. In that poll, Mongiardo held a 43-28 lead over Conway.

The Republican primary:

Trey Grayson (R): 37
Rand Paul (R): 26
Roger Thoney (R): 5
Bill Johnson (R): 2
Brian Oerther (R): 0
Other: 13
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±4.4%)

That's one hell of a strong showing for Rand Paul -- no doubt Paulbots all across the nation are short-circuiting in utter glee at how close he is at the beginning of this campaign.

And, finally, the general election numbers (registered voters):

Dan Mongiardo (D): 40
Trey Grayson (R): 46
Undecided: 16

Jack Conway (D): 37
Trey Grayson (R): 44
Undecided: 18

Jack Conway (D): 43
Rand Paul (R): 38
Undecided: 19

Dan Mongiardo (D): 43
Rand Paul (R): 41
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±2.3%)

Grayson's lead is not surprising. Mongiardo and Conway are beating each other up with brass knuckles at this point (with the most egregious attacks coming from that jerkface Mongiardo), while the GOP primary is far less contentious. With Rand Paul performing this well, though, perhaps things may get a bit testier in the future.

Crosstabs and more details for this poll are not yet available on SUSA's site, but we'll update this post with more details when they become available. (UPDATE: Crosstabs are available here.)

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James L. :: KY-Sen: Mongiardo Leads Conway, Grayson Leads All
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KY-Sen: Mongiardo Leads Conway, Grayson Leads All | 47 comments
In the previous catch all thread....
I stated that I think the GOP's open senate seats in 2010 are really weak, but I should specifically say that that is in comparison to their Dem opponents and/or their state's economic profile (e.g. Portman in OH). The fact that Trey leads the Dems is nothing at this point because he's never really had a tough race while Conway, especially, is an aggressive fighter and you don't win elections in KY running soft campaigns (see McConnel v. every Dem, Bunning v. Beasler, Fletcher v. Chandler). If Conway wins the Dem nomination, he is going to tear anything in his way...that guy is one determined pol and polls don't deter him at all.

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  
Rand
Rand isn't as nutty as his father so it's possible he could poll that well.
Runoff
I think I heard that Kentucky does a runoff in the primary if one candidate does not get 50%. In my opinion, this primary fight is similar to the one between Lt. gov Le Fisher and SOS Jennifer Brunner. I wish Mongiardo and Fisher would both drop out because Brunner and Conway would make much better candidates and senators.
40%
The threshold to avoid a runoff in Kentucky is 40%, which Beshear squeaked past to avoid a runoff and beat the corrupt Fletcher. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K...

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I don't care for Mongiardo one bit
But he's lead Conway in pretty much every poll I've seen. What possible motivation would he have to drop out? I don't think he's going to be deterred by the fact that you and I think he's sort of a jackass.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
A total of two polls so far
One of which was a Mongiardo internal. Granted, Conway didn't fire back with one of his own - but they've all, as you'd expect, been high-undecided affairs.
[ Parent ]
Fair enough
But the point is that Mongiardo, unpleasant as you and I and others outside of Kentucky may find him, can make at least as good an argument that he belongs in this race as Conway.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
Fisher?
Lee Fisher is, I think, the stronger candidate for Senate.  He has had better fundraising, leads in the polls, and will be able to energize the labor base in Ohio.  There is no reason for him to drop out.

Brunner is a decent candidate, but she could have saved us a lot of trouble by running for re-election.  To say that she should have a cleared field for her is ridiculous.

[ Parent ]
I concur
I believe Brunner would be a strong candidate. But I believe Fisher would be a STRONGER candidate. It would be more advantageous for the party had she run for re-election, but she is well within her right to chose to run for Senate instead. However, it is not right to say the candidate with less money, polling behind in the primary, and with less institutional support should have the field cleared for them.

Conaway at least has the financial advantage and is getting more institutional support than Mongiardo. None of these for candidates are in a position to be pressured to drop out, although Brunner does seem to be the furthest behind of the four candidates being discussed here.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
The runoff
only applies to gubernatorial races. It was passed to prevent former governor Wallace Wilkinson from winning the Democratic nomination in 1995.
[ Parent ]
Why?
I'd love some background. I love history.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Barring a late foreign policy success
for Obama in 2010 like 1962 which gives all Democrats a major bounce, Trey Greyson will be the next senator from Kentucky.

Even the best case scenario, Dems pass major health care reform and even cap and trade, and the economy rebounds nicely in 2010 would mean a pro-incumbent year.  And that would mean that the general trends in Kentucky would hold, that is a Republican would win statewide narrowly.


Cap and trade probably isnt popular
in a 'coal state' like KY. If anything it being passed would probably hurt the Dems.
[ Parent ]
Maybe maybe not
I'm a big believer that passing something major to deal with a perceived problem/issue gets you a big bounce with the middle, regardless of the unpopularity of it in a particular state.
[ Parent ]
You forgot the other wildcard
Paulistas see this poll, get really excited, push Paul over Grayson, and we squeak out a general election victory.

Or, Paulistas see this poll, get really excited, blast Grayson with negative ads lowering his popularity, then refuse to vote Grayson in the general out of spite, and we squeak out a victory.

[ Parent ]
I think the 26 in this poll
will be the high point of the Paul campaign.  I doubt he will break that at the end.
[ Parent ]
Dems pass health care reform and cap and trade, the economy rebounds, and it's a "pro-incumbent" year?
"This is excellent news... for McCain!!"

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08
[ Parent ]
Yes it would be a pro-incumbent year
People would be generally happy and risk-averse, high turnout among both the Dems and Repubs, moderate turnout by the independents, who would likely vote for no change (incumbents).

In Kentucky, in an open seat race, that means that the Repub is a slight favorite.  

[ Parent ]
Why is an open race Republican friendly?
By default Dems are in control of the Senate so it would seem that it would benefit them in a pro-incumbent year with no incumbent running because voting for Dems would be the default status quo vote.
[ Parent ]
Not in the South
most of the Republican base is there and hatred of Obama is rabid among Southern Repubs.  

And they will turn out in huge numbers even in a pro-incumbent year.  They aren't even going to be disillusioned by Repubs inability to block Obama's agenda, because they didn't have the ability to do so to begin with.  Without Bunning in the race, who would have lost all Democrats and independents, Grayson will win enough Dems and independents to narrowly win the race, I think.

In this pro-incumbent scenario, the Dems would probably win open seats in NH, OH, and MO, and even hold onto Dodd's seat.  North Carolina could be interesting, though.  I think it would be a tossup.

[ Parent ]
Premature
I think it's premature to speculate much about the outcome of the general election in NC until we know who will actually run. There may be more Democratic candidates.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
KY Democrats are different than national Democrats
I think whoever wins the primary will be more than capable of defining themselves by their own record rather than by what people think of Obama in KY. Just look at how close we got to taking out Bunning who was basically running as the head of the opposition to the Democratically held Senate yet who only won by a few points against a flawed opponent. People in KY comfortably vote for Democrats who connect to them on a personal level to some certain extent.
[ Parent ]
Probably something to do with the large registration advantage
One of the main reasons Dems are able to win senate seats in red territory and Repubs not so much in blue.
[ Parent ]
Sorry I meant to say McConnell
McConnell was almost beat in 2008 even though Obama lost KY pretty big (improvement over Kerry in 2004).  
[ Parent ]
Ugh
Mongiardo is about as unacceptable to me as Grayson.  
One positive:
Jim Bunning will retire.  I can't think of many who are as bad (but unintentionally humorous) as Jim Bunning.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Eh, he was a useful bumbling Republican
McConnell is the dangerous one.  
[ Parent ]
McConnell
would be gone now if we had gotten either Conway, Chandler, or Luallin to run. A huge number of people had a negative view of Lunsford yet he still got over 47% of the vote. Imagine what we could have done to McConnell with a top tier candidate.
[ Parent ]
McConnell drew an inside straight
One other thing you didn't mention is that Obama was uniquely weak in Kentucky.  
[ Parent ]
Yes he was
Had Hillary Clinton been the nominee, McConnell would be enjoying his new life as a lobbyist.  
OTOH, Coleman and probably Smith would be back in the Senate.
[ Parent ]
Smith, yes, Coleman, I'm not sure
Lots of variables.  
[ Parent ]
No he isn't as bad
Mongiardo would have been a vote for health care reform.  Greyson wouldn't.  

[ Parent ]
KY
I would really prefer Conway here but he seems to be floundering pretty badly.  I don't think Mongiardo has a real shot against Grayson, so I am hoping for a turnaround here.

29/D/Male/NY-01
Not floundering
Eight points is nothing really and he is considerably out raising him.
[ Parent ]
Strange that Mongiardo's winning the liberal vote pretty decisively
Not that Conway's a liberal, but isn't he more so than Mongiardo?    

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


Considerably

[ Parent ]
found that strange, too...
...that Mongiardo's lead is highest among liberals and lowest among conservatives.  Makes no sense to me; I'd be interested in what others make of it.  I suppose it could be an indication that voters still don't know who these men are....
[ Parent ]
That's my best guess too
I'd expect Conway to pick up the liberal vote (such as it is) once he's better defined.  Probably Mongiardo will make further inroads among conservatives, though when all is said and done I'm betting Conway does better among conservatives than Mongiardo does among liberals.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Could it be...
that maybe the people identified as liberal might remember 5 years ago when Mongiardo took on seemingly strong Bunning and ran a close race and poeple remember that as the beginning of stemming the tide of KY going red?

I'm just curious. If i remember that election night,I think Mongiardo was either close or ahead almost the whole night until Bunning finally came back.  Back then who'd have thunk it, even with Bunning being somewhat "unorthodox".

I often wonder what liberal would even mean in Kentucky. Is it east coast liberal, probably not?  Sna Francisco liberal, prob not?  Is it grassroots people who just like being more involved in growing something new/different that might not liberal at all...possibly?

Who knows, we'll see i suppose.

[ Parent ]
I have a different reason to like Rand Paul
Apparently, he is open to the idea of his campaign getting a blimp, similar to how supporters of his father's presidential campaign rented one last year: http://www.usnews.com/blogs/wa...

Amazing, amazing.

Go Mongiardo
Not knowing much about KY politics, I'd have to go with Mongiardo. Conway comes off as too angry and seems like he'd be much more partisan, kind of like Sestak.
So it doesn't bother you...
That Mongiardo is something of an entitled douchebag?
[ Parent ]
Hey
I guess I should have rephrased it to say "I don't know much about KY politics".

From what I have seen and read, I'd go with Mongiardo. He's more conservative-leaning and would likely play a more centrist and important role in the Senate.

Conway comes off as more of a populist, which is a plus, but he also comes off as very angry and my guess is he'd be more partisan.

[ Parent ]
Didn't mean to razz you
Mongiardo definitely is running as the more conservative Democrat, which is probably right up your alley. However, Mongiardo's been leveling some of the most egregious and unfair primary attacks that I've seen in any Dem Senate campaign in the past few cycles -- attacks that range from flippant quips about Conway munching on caviar with a silver spoon to attacking him for having the audacity to charge people money to attend a campaign fundraiser. His insistence on running an us-vs-them campaign strikes me -- and, I think, a lot of other people on the 'net -- as petulant and entitled.

Conway probably has to learn to keep his cool, but I don't blame him for being agitated at the ridiculous attacks sent his way from Mongiardo. And for the record, when he was the only candidate in the race, I was willing to give Mongiardo a shot at a rematch. His primary campaign, though, has been nothing but a turn-off.

[ Parent ]
Exactly
I hate conservative Democrats who have some kind of entitlement complex because they represent an area which is "tough" for Democrats to win then they act like that gives them an excuse to vote however they want and, much worse, act like total shit heads when they go on Fox News or whatever and talk about how they are a check on the leadership when the leadership carries water for them every 2 or 6 years.  
[ Parent ]
Um
What does any of that have to do with Mongiardo vs Conway? Conservative Democrats do what they were elected to do, represent their constituents. Surely you do not expect Gene Taylor to have a voting record similar to Nancy Pelosi.

I could easily sit here and whine about how the left wing of the Democratic Party wants to purge the part of anyone that holds a centrist or conservative viewpoint, but what is the point? Do I disagree with the liberal wing? Very much so. However, I realize that a coalition exists and unless we team up on issues we agree on, then we'll never be in a position to influence policy.

The entire party purist stuff is sickening. Blue Dogs and other centrists are the reason why we control the House and Senate.

Leadership carries the water for them? If you mean in a campaign sense, I think you are way off base. Conservative Democrats want nothing to do with Pelosi and for good reason, they're constituents cannot stand her.

50% means more than 0% to me, sadly too many on the left want 100% or nothing.

[ Parent ]
No Prob
I didn't mean to come off as a smartass.

I can see where you're coming from about Mongiardo. I'm not a fan of the negative stuff, but it seems like both of them really do not like each other.

One question though about the Conway fundraiser, was it really advertised as a "private conversation"? Charging extra for  "private reception" or "photo opportunity" is common on fundraising letters, but I do not think I have ever seen it called a "private conversation". It makes sense though if Mongiardo is attacking Conway for being an elitist, to attack him for using that type of wording. Sure, reception, conversation, whatever, it's all the same at a fundraising event, it's just, well, we all know that politics is all about wording!

After that event where Conway went off on Mongiardo, that did it for me. Conway seems to be more of a populist, which is right up my alley, but he just comes off as angry. His populism should focus on the people of KY, not Mongiardo, if that makes sense. I think Mongiardo calling Conway out for using profanities was a little silly, but I can see why he did it. There's a time and place for all of that. I certainly would not appreciate some politician cussing up a storm with my 4 year old niece in the crowd. Now, if it was a group of adults, blah, no problem.

Basically, to sum it up in a couple of short sentences: Conway's raw emotion needs to be reined in. He's got skill, but he's not new to politics, so he should know better.

Mongiardo is not perfect nor innocent by any means, I just think he's more of the Senate type. The Senate is all about deal making, whether we like it or not, and Mongiardo seems to be the one that could handle that type of environment better than Conway.

[ Parent ]
KY-Sen: Mongiardo Leads Conway, Grayson Leads All | 47 comments

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