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FL-Sen: Rasmussen Dishes Out Some Tasty Cat Fud

by: DavidNYC

Tue Dec 15, 2009 at 7:07 PM EST


And we're here to serve it up - or hide it in the dryer. Rasmussen (12/15, likely voters, 10/19 in parens):

Charlie Crist (R): 43 (49)
Marco Rubio (R): 43 (35)
Some other: (5) (4)
Not sure: 9 (12)
(MoE: ±5%)

It's a tie game. Maybe this explains why Charlie Crist didn't celebrate his first anniversary with his wife - the campaign is clearly demanding too much from him.
DavidNYC :: FL-Sen: Rasmussen Dishes Out Some Tasty Cat Fud
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FL-Sen: Rasmussen Dishes Out Some Tasty Cat Fud | 66 comments
This is sooner than i though
I was expecting them to be tied in February!
Same
I came to the conclusion Robio was going to beat him in the primary back in early fall but I didn't expect Rubio to close the gap until at least February or March of next year.  Crist's fall is astonishing.
[ Parent ]
Stick a fork in Crist
If he stays in the GOP primary he's going to get crushed.  I don't see him cracking 40% against Rubio.

He can't pull out of the race and run for re-election either because McCollum sure as hell won't step aside for Crist and Crist won't beat McCollum in a primary.

His only viable option seems to be run as an independent for Senate.  

Is it possible Rubio has peaked too soon?
I keep getting the feeling that if Crist were to go full negative against Rubio it would make things a lot closer.  Right now Rubio has everything going for him - will that magic last going into late 2010?  Also, if the polls keep showing Crist handily beating Meek but Rubio struggling to win the general, might that not make a lot of the rank and file Republicans nervous that they may be blowing a race that would otherwise be an easy hold?
[ Parent ]
1) Possible
But can Crist bring down the hammer? I'm not sure that he can.

2) I highly doubt that the rank-and-file would act so strategically, especially given that the teabaggers seem to be motivated by sentiments like DeMint's (rather have 30 senators who agree with him than a majority which includes some who don't). I also doubt that, next summer, we'll see many polls which show Meek beating Rubio.

[ Parent ]
It's easy to bring down the hammer
Rubio's tenure as speaker allowed for plenty of tax and spending increases.  His record has been barely scrutinized at this point, much less his personal history or anything else that would be potentially damaging.  He's been able to frame himself in the most positive possible light for the last 4-5 months, and yet he is only tied with Crist.  That says to me he's got a "flavor of the month" feel about him, and he needs to prove his rise is sustainable.

I also dispute that it's impossible for Meek to be behind Rubio in this race.  He'll likely be hitting the airwaves full-blast in spring of 2010 if not sooner, and if the fur flies in the GOP primary (which I'd be shocked if Crist were to go out so quietly) Rubio's positives will undoubtedly falter to at least some extent.  If the disparity in polling still exists, the party bosses may be more inclined to boost Crist than allow a liberal black Democrat the Florida Senate seat (I do agree with you on the teabagger sentiment, but I'm referring more to party leadership).

[ Parent ]
The Anniversary apart isn't surprising
Nobody I know in Florida ever thought the marriage was anything more than a coverup of his sexuality.
It's only a surprise in how fast the pretense was abandoned
especially when running for the Senate.  Did he think no one would notice he didn't spend his anniversary with his wife?  
[ Parent ]
Any chance of recruiting some more Democrats
into the race to take on Rubio?
No
Basically all the Florida democrats in Congress have already backed Meek and everyone else is running for something else.  Meek is also doing very well financially which discourages primary opponents.  Meek is our nominee, like it or not.
[ Parent ]
Kinda like Jerry Brown in CA-Gov.
A lot of progressives are not happy with him, but he is by default our party's nominee, as it is pretty much too late for anyone else to jump into that race, probably even if that person is a bajillionaire. Even Newsom never stood a chance because of Brown's huge advantage in the name ID department, which is extremely important in an uber-expensive state.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
One big difference...
Everyone expects Jerry Brown to beat Meg Whitman or Steve Poizner in the general, but I've heard very few think Kendrick Meek would be able to dispatch Crist or Rubio.

Our best bet is that this gets so nasty that whomever emerges from the GOP primary has been beaten up to the point that they are broke and unelectable.  

[ Parent ]
Florida
holds their primaries in August. (I think..) Which means someone coming out of their primary bruised and battered only has 2 months to lick their wounds until November is upon them.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
The panhandle will deliver a Rubio victory against Crist
I expect Rubio to get around 70% to 80% of the vote in the panhandle among all the wingnuts that live there. Since it is likely the Rubio will beat Crist I think its time to draft Betty Castor now!
The panhandle is more like the deep-south
I'd wager that Crist actually outperforms against Rubio in the panhandle just because of the racist factor. Either way though, my understanding of the panhandle is that there are a lot of registered Democrats who are to the right of some Republicans (but who, nonetheless can't vote in the closed primary anyways).

Rubio will do extremely well in the Miami area, he'll rack up big margins among Cubans there.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Perhaps the biases will cancel each other out?
Assuming voters in the Panhandle "know" that Crist is gay, it's unclear to me if that would be more or less important than the color of Rubio's skin.
[ Parent ]
Normally that's true
Mel Martinez underperformed in the Panhandle in 2004 both in the primary and general.  But I still think those white Panhandle conservatives will come out heavily for Rubio even if he is Hispanic.
[ Parent ]
Do you think it has something to do with what tietack was saying?
That the panhandle being antigay will cancel out the racists? Or is it purely the teabaggers trying to purify the Republican Party?

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I agree with that
They probably cancel each other out.  Something similar might occur in a Meek-Rubio race given candidate races.
[ Parent ]
why is that
when Rasmussen shows Democrats in trouble they have "an axe to grind" but when it shows Republicans eating their own, it's taken to be gospel?
They are a polling firm like any other and if they massage the data, they will be exposed like what happened with Strategic Vision.  
Huh, you know
I checked the tags on this post - I forgot to include "gospel" as one of them! I'll go fix that right away....

Anyhow, even if one thinks that Ras is finding ways to massage the numbers for horserace polls in favor of Republicans (not something I suggested in my post on Sunday), that generally would not apply to an R-on-R primary.

[ Parent ]
well your tone in how you presented the polling
from the Sunday posting to this one strongly suggest you do not believe the Rasmussen polls when they show Democrats in trouble but do when they show Rubio in a tie with Crist.  
[ Parent ]
Nope
I think the verdict is out in both cases! (Though I'm actually generally inclined to believe that Rasmussen's horserace polls are a lot better than their issue polls, which is why I linked to Nate Silver's analysis, which had Rasmussen as the third-most accurate pollster of those he surveyed.)

I think you may be mistaking my glee that Rasmussen might be right with this poll for certainty that they are. I'd like to see other confirmatory polls first. But I'm happy for whatever grief this causes Charlie Crist in the meantime.

[ Parent ]
There is the odd way
Only Rasmussen showed Rubio doing better than Crist versus Meek last time. Similar thing in a couple other states. California springs to mind. But I too give him the benefit of the doubt on horserace polls. Approval and issues, fuggeddaboudit!
[ Parent ]
Rasmussen early polls are by and large a joke
I don't take them as gospel by any stretch.  But there's just no denying Crist is in a freefall.
[ Parent ]
Rubio
omigod! :D We may actually have a shot at taking this seat if Rubio wins the primary. I defiantly was not expecting Rubio to get this much support this earlier. Time for a shake up in the Crist campaign/strategy?  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
Rubio
 This is going to sound different from everybody but Rubio should peak soon. Rubio at first did poorly because no one knew who he was and now people are getting to know who he is. People will start to slink back toward Crist because people should think "Yeah, I liked Rubio but he seems a little too Conservative." Also, I think alot of people who moved to Florida moved there because they wanted to get away from the...people who look like Rubio. I know people in Florida who are Liberal Jewish people from NYC and are not a fan of the people who look like Rubio. If Liberals in Florida can be like that, think of the Conservatives' opinion. Rubio should have a very tough time winning their votes because I do not see many voters bringing themselves to be tolerant and vote for someone who looks like Rubio (side note, Betty Castor in 2004 did well in the Panhandle against moderate Republican Mel Martinez.) Also, Rubio may not even win Hispanics because the majority of Florida Hispanics are not Cuban and there is animosity between the groups. Florida however is not a ultra Conservative state (except for the Panhandle) which only casts about 10% of the Republican primary vote anyway. When you add the Jacksonville area, it gets to about 23% of the vote but this is still not very high.

Overall, I do not see Rubio winning much east and south of Ocala except for Miami Dade County.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

You'd be wrong
This is going to sound different from everybody but Rubio should peak soon. Rubio at first did poorly because no one knew who he was and now people are getting to know who he is. People will start to slink back toward Crist because people should think "Yeah, I liked Rubio but he seems a little too Conservative."

Primaries in Florida are closed to party members only.  The republican primaries are overwhelmingly dominated by conservatives.  Anotherwords the more batshit crazy Rubio's image becomes the better he's going to do in the primary against Crist, not worse.

[ Parent ]
I completely agree
These people elected the Sarah Palin of the south, Katherine Harris, in 2006 to run against Bill Nelson, she got slaughtered.

They are a bunch of wing nuts, I'd be surprised if Rubio DIDN'T get the nomination.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Seriously
Even the third-tier no-names could have outperformed Harris in 2006.  There was absolutely no excuse for republicans giving Nelson a pass and over 60% of the vote.  Any halfway credible repub could have held him to the mid 50's.
[ Parent ]
People who look like Rubio
I think alot of people who moved to Florida moved there because they wanted to get away from the...people who look like Rubio

Then they're stupid and moved to the wrong state. They should try, I don't know, maybe Vermont?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Seriously
If you want to move to a state full of white people Florida is the most unlikely of places.  It's one of the most diverse states in the country.
[ Parent ]
True
 I bet your average voter who moves to Florida do not know how diverse Florida is. Or they just move to the non diverse parts of Florida. I know people who moved to Florida to get away from "the people who look like Rubio." They live in gated communities where they can keep people they do not want out of there.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Ya
Even Rush lives in his gated castle in south Florida where he never has to interact with the "little people."
[ Parent ]
as long as Meek can beat Rubio
I really don't want to see Rubio in the Senate.
My greatest fear is
That Rubio wins the primary and general election. Then we have a teabagger senator instead of a rationale one.(By we I mean the united states, I don't live on Florida)
DRAFT BETTY CASTOR, Meek can continue serving in the congress

Meek is running for Senate
Even if Betty did run Meek would stay in the race.
[ Parent ]
Betty won a 4 way primary with 58% in 2004, she can do it again
Castor would absolutely beat Meek in a primary
[ Parent ]
Possibly
But she's not running so who cares?
[ Parent ]
This doesn't seem too complicated to me
There's no way Crist can beat Rubio in a Republican Primary and there's no way Meek can win election in a Republican-leaning midterm. The only wrench into this would be Crist going Dem or third-party. The end.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
Any chance Crist changes parties?
He's obviously a naked opportunist. I think he'd have an easier time beating Meek in a Democratic primary than Rubio in the GOP one. What are the chances the GOP primary gets so ugly and unwinnable that he runs as a Democrat?

No question Rasmussen skews their polls to be sensationalistic. I'd be surprised if Rubio is tied, but I don't doubt he's within low single digits of Mr. Crist.  

Slim to none
He's too right-wing to win a Democratic primary.

My question would be, what about him running as an Independent?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Ya
I could see him running as an independent.  Doubt he could win a democratic primary even against Meek.
[ Parent ]
I think Rubio may peak too soon too, but...
I'd rather have Crist beat Rubio, than Rubio face Meek. I just think the optics and political environment do not portend a Meek victory. The thing with Rubio is that not stopping him now risks him becoming too big to defeat in the future (see GOP hopes of retaining IL Senate Seat in 2004 when Dems nominated a guy called Barack Obama).

Rubio sells his conservatism very well and I just think it will be hard to nail him hard against Meek and once he's in the Senate its next stop, 1600 Penn. It's just not a risk I'm willing to take but that's just me.

As per Crist running as an indy or a Dem, that would most certainly guarantee a Rubio win and Dems would be unwise to pursue this option. Crist should go full negative against Rubio now and often. He has the money and there is litle downside and lots of upside ( basically, what Clinton should have done to cut off Obama's legs in the fall of 2007, but as they say that's history.) Indeed, I could argue that a bloodied but victorious Crist is better for Meek than a bloodied but victorious Rubio.


Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

Agree on a bloodied Crist
Lots of conservatives would likely stay home. Best case scenario is a narrow primary win for the orange skinned one.
[ Parent ]
Don't count on it.
Remember, Florida has every statewide race up for leection in 2010 except Bill Nelson's seat.  The Governor's race, AG, Ag Comm and CFO are all up and ever single one of them are open contests with no incumbent.  Conservatives are likely to turn out to try and get conservatives like McCollum elected Governor even if Crist is their Senate nominee.  

The Governor's race has far bigger stakes for Florida and maybe the nation than the Senate race does.

[ Parent ]
Not if Sink has a lead by election day
And I would think lots would skip the senate race.
[ Parent ]
Very possible
And I do hope that is the case.  I think she'll win but I just don't see it being anything other than close.  
[ Parent ]
I'm not suggesting the Democrats would pursue Crist running as an Indpendent
I'm suggesting he might pursue that option.

You're sure Crist couldn't win as an Independent?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Assuming no catastrophe, outing or otherwise,
if Crist is on the ballot in the fall, he'll win.

And Rubio would have no shot.  Right now if they are tied, Rubio picks up, oh, close to zero non-Republican votes if Crist is in.  Crist picks up a lot of independants.  Rubio would have to be ahead of Crist by more than 10 points in a Rep primary poll to have a chance in the general.  

If Crist runs, he has to worry about losing to Meek, not Rubio.

And if Crist wins, the searing attacks on him from Rubio and other extremist Republicans should make it at least a 15% chance that he caucuses with the Democrats.

Crist running as an independant is win-win for Crist and for Team Blue.

[ Parent ]
Rubio's biggest pitfall is ...
.... peaking too soon.  Now that is has closed the gap with Crist, he will get a lot more scrutiny. But if he can win the primary then he wins the general, unless the economy is VASTED improved from what it is today.

2010 is going to be a referendum on Obama, that sinks Meek unless Obama is much more popular in FL than he is now.  The economy has to improve for that to happen.  If it does, Meek has a shot. If it doesn't, then brace yourself for Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL).  He then becomes the long-awaited heir to the Reagan legacy.    

I'm sorry but this poll is more Rasmussen BULLSHIT......
Look, I would LOVE to believe these numbers, but they don't pass the sniff test and the poll has very obvious methodological problems common to Rasmussen that routinely produce outliers that are either catnip or panic-inducing for us, as the case may be.

First, it's only 431 respondents, with a 5% margin of error.  That's very high.  You very rarely see a public polling outfit with so few respondents and such a high margin of error, unless they're really trying to poll the general and the primary numbers are just an offshoot that they throw out there because they can.  Now, Rasmussen might be doing exactly that, but since they do dirt-cheap robocalls there's no excuse for them not to do a lot more respondents to bring down that margin of error.

Second, it's a one-night sample.  This is perhaps the single biggest problem Rasmussen ALWAYS has, and it does, as noted above, produce the occasional batshit crazy outlier, which is exactly why no other polling outfit does one-night samples.

Third, they're using a likely voter screen for a primary election that's 8 months away.  A likely voter screen is plenty difficult to do accurately in any case for a primary election, but for one 8 months away it's virtually nothing more than guesswork.  Again, this is a routine problem with Rasmussen that they use likely voter screens for everything, no matter how far away, and it's a component problem of all their polls except for near-term general elections.

All this adds up to occasional stupid poll results.  The one I always like to point to is last year's NH-Sen August Rasmussen poll that had Sununu suddenly up 52-45 on Shaheen, contradicting both all other contemporaneous polling and all other Rasmussen polling on that same race.

So I just can't take this FL-Sen primary poll seriously unless and until I see other polling corroborate it.

And it's worth noting the most recent poll or two before this latest Rasmussen effort actually showed Crist with a healthy lead, larger than some prior polls that showed Rubio having gained ground.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

Black candidates
Which black candidates have won state-wide in Florida, and for what positions?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
Does Obama count?

[ Parent ]
LOL
True.  Though in fairness Obama is the only one I can think of who was elected statewide.

Our Chief Justice of the Supreme Court in Florida is a black democrat, but she was appointed not elected.  

[ Parent ]
FL-Sen: Rasmussen Dishes Out Some Tasty Cat Fud | 66 comments

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