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IN-Sen: Hostettler To Challenge Bayh

by: Crisitunity

Thu Dec 03, 2009 at 2:03 PM EST


Here's a strange blast from the not-too-distant past:

Former Rep. John Hostettler (R-Ind.) announced Thursday that he will challenge Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh in 2010.

In a YouTube video, Hostettler repeatedly ties Bayh to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, blaming the pair for what he calls a failed economic stimulus package.

Hostettler served in the House from 1994 to 2006, when he was the victim of the biggest defeat of any incumbent in that wave year, losing 61-39 to then-Vanderburgh Co. Sheriff Brad Ellsworth. This came after the NRCC had to give up on supporting him, concluding that he "wasn't listening" to them, which may be code for "wasn't taking PAC contributions," something he'd always refused to do.

Given Hostettler's frequent bucking of House leadership (he was one of only six Republicans to vote against authorizing the Iraq War) and his antipathy to fundraising, I can't see the NRSC taking much interest here -- leaving him with only grass roots support to go up against Evan Bayh and his $13 million. However, given Hostettler's extreme conservatism and his love of guns (as seen in his having to plead guilty after taking a gun through airport security in 2004), he could certainly arouse the sympathies of the teabagger movement. (Of course, he'll still need to get past state Sen. Marlin Stutzman in the primary -- no guarantee, despite his superior name rec, if the establishment tries to box him out.)

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IN-Sen: Hostettler To Challenge Bayh | 57 comments
I find this line interesting:
Hostettler repeatedly ties Bayh to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid

Not Obama?  That's new.  Don't see either method working, but certainly trying to tie Bayh to a far less known leader isn't going to gain much ground.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Well, we sorta saw this with Hostettler in 2006
iirc, he tried to tie Ellsworth to John Conyers, Charlie Rangel, and Barney Frank. Trouble is, most people in his district have no idea who any of them are.  
[ Parent ]
Good luck with that
Still, it probably doesn't help any in getting Bayh to vote with the party.
So...
Is Hostettler going to run the same top-notch campaign he usually does?  With mainly family members running the campaign offices and getting outspent 10-1?

I'm sure Bayh is realyy nervous about this.  If he has a bad 2010 he might not break 65% of the vote.

This is such a joke
Remember that Hostettler was last seen losing to Brad Ellsworth in 2006 61-39. Even though 2006 was strongly Democratic, that's still really pathetic for an incumbent in a then-R+9 district without a major scandal.
Well, he's a for real candidate
But I suspect it will be pretty hard for him to take out Bayh.  
I wouldn't call him a for real candidate
Not in the least bit a legit candidate.  
[ Parent ]
I'd say having the national committees
spend millions of dollars for and against you over the past 4 years makes you a real candidate.  
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't
I'd call that the national republican party giving him millions to save his sorry ass from losing a R+9 seat.  Any sane republican could have held that seat rather easily.  The republic party burned through all that money because they had no choice.
[ Parent ]
Legit or not
Evan Bayh shouldh't lose any sleep.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Even Tekzilla loses no sleep over Hostettler challenging Bayh

[ Parent ]
IN
True Story!

29/D/Male/NY-01
[ Parent ]
Hostettler is the Kucinich of the right
IIRC he voted against the Federal Marriage Amendment because it wasn't anti-gay enough. Or something ridiculous like that.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
This is bad news for Bayh
Sen Bayh thought he was going to get a pass and run against a no name. Hostettler has a name, a record and a history of energizing his base.

Hostettler got elected by turning out his base. He lost in 2006 when the GOP base was de-energized.

If 2010 turns into a GOP year Hostettler could give Evan Bayh a run for his money in what is a GOP leaning state.

This means Bayh has to raise money, run hard and watch himself on key votes.

If Bayh is the deciding vote on healthcare watch a candidate like Hostettler take him to task for it.

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The GOP base may have been de-energized
But this district is still more Republican than Indiana as a whole and I seriously doubt higher Republican turnout would have resulted in a 22-point swing.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
You have got to be a kidding me?
There is much more at play than a de-energized base when you lose like he did in 2006. And Bayh has plenty money already. I agree it doesn't help the legislative process but then Bayh was a problem before and always will be. Which is why he is so popular in Indiana.
[ Parent ]
You forget this state voted for Obama
And voted for Bayh in 2004.  This will surely not be a competitive race.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Reminds me of Slattery
Against Roberts in Kansas last year. And the plethora of Reps. Harkin has despatched over the years in Iowa. It'll be a race but I see no way Bayh loses.  
[ Parent ]
Obama wouldn't win Indiana if the election were held today
That said, I don't think Bayh's in any trouble here.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
But would Obama win Indiana if the election were held in November 2010?


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I suspect not
I doubt he'd have the time to turn things out and re-interject enthusiasm into the two key constituencies which helped to catapult him to victory in swing states - African-Americans and young voters. 2012 at least gives him s'more time.

I suspect if Obama's in similar shape as today come re-election time, that is hovering at around 50% (and perhaps underwater on the economy and foreign polcy), he loses IN/NC/MO, and OH/FL/NV/CO/VA tighten significantly. That's against "generic Republican." I think if Palin's the nominee, Obama has no opportunity but to build on his '08 tally (unless Afghanistan falls apart, the economy fails to recover, and no significant health care reform is past, meaning he's probably below 40%).

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Because McCain just got more popular?
Odd statement.  Where is there a poll even suggesting that?
[ Parent ]
No
Because Obama has grown less popular.
[ Parent ]
So?
If Obama is 3% less popular, and mccain is 7% less popular, how is that bad?

Obama's favorability rating is 13 points positive, which is obviously more than he won by.

There is no way to wake a case that he would lose Indiana today without a poll saying that since all the evidence points the other way.  The Republican brand is toxic, the more so in the Midwest and Northeast.

There is one thing that should be clear, Obama would generally do better today in the areas he won, and worse in most of the areas he lost.

The public is generally more disgusted with politicians today than a year ago, but that doesn't mean they suddenly think John McCain is hot stuff.

[ Parent ]
Really?
Here are some of SUSA's approval ratings for the President for 11/25:

California 53/38
Missouri 38/58
New York 53/39
Oregon 47/47
Virginia 37/60
Washington 48/48

http://www.surveyusa.com/50Sta...

Those numbers have to be more than 3 points worse in every state mentioned than they were when he was elected.  Considering how crappy they are even in solidly blue states like NY and CA I'd imagine he would do much worse today than he did in 2008.  Do you really think his approval is any higher today in Indiana than the 37% and 38% rating he gets in Virginia and Missouri?  I don't.

[ Parent ]
Conflicting polls
Kos' weekly tracking poll has Obama 53/39 favorable.  If he's only 53/39 in NY and CA, well... SurveyUSA and Reasearch 2000 are talking to different people.

But again, what you cite is really irrelevant.  What are John McCain's numbers?  Why would McCain be more popular now?

The answer is he isn't, and the only thing less popular than a Democrat in this country is a Republican... by a very large measure, according to Research 2000 again.

No matter how much people think Obama sucks (for good reason), they think the Republicans suck more (for even better reason).  Obama would beat badly any Republican if the election were today.

Ya can't look at this stuff with one eye, you need to see both sides.  The public hates both parties, but they hate Team Red worse.

[ Parent ]
Almsot every republican is in better shape now than in November 2008
I don't like that fact but how can I ignore what practically every single poll is telling me.  Even taking Rasmussen's outlier polls out of the equation we would be in horrible shape if any elections were held today.  I have a hard time believing McCain would be the one exception where the republican is in worse shape.
[ Parent ]
What polls are you talking about?
Where are the polls showing Calvert leading Hedrick, or John Hall behind, or etc....

There is no such polling.  What we have is incumbents of both parties hated, and former office holders who have kept a low profile being welcomed as semi-saviors.

The problem with this cycle is our best recruits are not running, and Team Red getting both good recruits and getting their best possible challngers getting polled.  On top of that, the Senate races are not in very good states for us.

This should be a good cycle for progressives (less so for blue dogs in R+ districts), assuming either that health care either passes or fails due to a public option (and not some oatmeal piece of crap bill passes).

[ Parent ]
Senate races not in good states?
I'd say just the opposite.  We're actually very lucky the competitive Senate races are primarily in blue or blue-leaning states.  The only Senate seat we're at rick of losing that McCain won is Arkansas and maybe North Dakota if Hoevan runs.

If we had our 2012 seats up instead in 2010 you'd be right.  Thankfully that's not the case.

[ Parent ]
Hostetler is a shitty candidate
He was a terrible fundraiser and guys like him were the reason why the NRCC had to revise their "Patriot" program so that incumbents had to reach certain fundraising benchmarks before receiving national money.  He pissed off way too many national donors who felt they were bailing out a guy who couldn't get off his ass to raise the money.  Even though it is an R+9 district he perpetually underperformed compared to the rest of the Republican ticket, and the first time he faced real competition in Brad Ellsworth he got creamed.  He may not even make it out of the primary with Marlin Stutzman in the race, much less take on a guy whose family name is like currency in Indiana.
[ Parent ]
There are so many flaws in that argument, but I'll just point out a few
While you're right that Hostettler was very good at energizing his base, he DID NOT lose just because it was a "wave election."  He lost, by over 20 points, because his district finally realized how much of a loon he really was.

You say Bayh needs to raise money -- but he's sitting on almost $13 million.  How much more do you think he needs?  Who really needs to be concerned about fundraising is your guy Hostettler, because he has a long history of hating to fundraise.

"Watch himself on key votes"?  How much more to the right do you want Senator Bayh to move?  Most people in Indiana consider him a common sense centrist.  The teabaggers are ALWAYS going to see him as a socialist -- he could move the right of Dick Lugar and they'd see him that way.

And finally, do you have any specific information that health care reform is unpopular here?

[ Parent ]
heh
I guess Congressman Abortions Cause Breast Cancer has gotten bored.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
I'll Be Rooting For Him
     We're never going to get anywhere with "Democrats" like Bayh. I'd like to see Indiana progressives vote for Hostettler to defeat Bayh in 2010, and then we'd have a shot at a decent senator in 2016, with Hostettler an easy target.
We need a name
For the opposite of a Teabagger.
[ Parent ]
How about
Bee Tagger?
[ Parent ]
D tagger?

[ Parent ]
Get real dude
What do you want a liberal democrat elected in Indiana?  Bayh sucks on a lot of issues but we are not going to get better.  I think Obama's winning Indiana has led a lot of democrats to a misguided belief that it's a liberal state.  
[ Parent ]
With all of these "progressives" hoping for blue dog defeats
It should be easy for teabaggers to "concern troll" liberal blog sites.
[ Parent ]
Wouldn't be surprised
That probably is already occuring.
[ Parent ]
Which we need to start working to get IN a liberal state
It is the biggest anomaly of the Midwestern states if you take the plain states out of the equation.  It has a large population with major population centers that vote too GOP for them to overcome the sea of red rural areas in the state.  Like when i first started to become a poli sci nerd, the IN margins in presidential contests shocked the hell out of me.  I never thought of IN as being a 60-40 GOP state.

I asked a poli sci prof how on Earth Obama managed to win IN, what made this time different as opposed to 2004 and such?  She simply said, Obama had the resources to compete there.

IN is a state to work on and maybe we wont have to settle on Bayh anymore, or he'll get his shit together and start voting more like a Democrat.

[ Parent ]
The primary was huge
Putting the resources in during the spring to basically knock Hillary out really paid off in the fall.
[ Parent ]
Make Indiana a liberal state?
I don't see that happening anytime soon.  It's mostly white and bluedoggish.  I do see Indiana becoming more democratic in the future but now very much more liberal.  People like Ellsworth and Baron Hill are going to be the types of Dems who succeed statewide in Indiana.
[ Parent ]
Ah, true
I shouldve definitely been distinctive in liberal vs democratic.  Easy to build up a democratic base but liberalism takes generations or special real time events to occur.
[ Parent ]
We did a good job in 2006
By electing three moderate Dems to Congress in Donnelly, Hill and Ellsworth.  Ellsworth especially would make a great statewide candidate one day.  Sadly we blew the Governor's race and republicans will have a free hand to gerrymander in 2012, possibly costing Donnelly and Hill their seats.
[ Parent ]
I thought
Todd Rokita was trying to push through something that would make a Republican gerrymander harder?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
It's been proposed
I just don't believe that plan will get through.  He is going to have to convince republican legislators to yield partisan control over the process.  Good luck with that.
[ Parent ]
If you've noticed
Bayh hasn't been nearly as much of a pain in the HCR debate as Lieberman, Nelson, or Landrieu.  I think he sees there's an energized Democratic base in the state, so he knows when to keep his mouth shut lest he piss them off too much.

And Obama winning Indiana had more to do than just having resources.  Being able to turn out the black vote in Lake County and the college kids in Bloomington certainly helped his cause out.  But, the primary did play a big role as it allowed him to set up a campaign infrastructure months in advance to get the ball rolling, which is what you need to do to win historically red states.  Overall though, I think McCain just took the state for granted and by the time he realized he needed to reassert himself there he was a day late and a buck short.  It is somewhat surprising that Indiana is so heavily GOP, but I think that has to do with the lack of heavy unionization that the other Great Lake states have enjoyed.  Plus, is IN as urban as its neighbors?  It always struck me as more rural, with a decaying urban area (Gary/East chicago) that has low turnout.

[ Parent ]
He's been less outspoken
From what I've read Bayh has also been shaky on HCR but he's been far less publicly outspoken against it than the others.  That's probably why Dems in Indiana havn't turned on him.  
[ Parent ]
Actually
Obama was able to pull out the win in Indiana by holding McCain's margins way down in most rural areas outside Indy and Lake Co. http://uselectionatlas.org/RES...

My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I stand corrected then n/t

[ Parent ]
If Obama/McCain played out today...
I suspect only IN/NC/MO would move back in McCain's grasp. Colorado/Nevada would be 5% wins for Obama, Florida/Virginia ties, Ohio a 2-3% win, Pennsylvania 7%. Obama might lose 3-5% in the most solidly-blue states.

Of course, all of this speculation is supremely silly.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
If he were popular enough to win
why do you think he'd be an easy target? I mean, the idea of rooting for Hostettler to win is crazy, just stark raving mad, but the rest makes no logical sense at all.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
LOL
You've gotta be kidding me.  This is going to be hilarious.
Bayh is such a corporate whore
that I could actually see a right-wing populist like Hostettler getting some traction.  Although not enough to really have a chance to win.
Will Weaver
Has he said anything lately?  
Perhaps African Americans are feeling neglected
Per Nate Silver

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...

The racial demographics, however, are perhaps even more striking. Whereas 68 percent of white voters told Research 2000 they were definitely or probably planning to vote in 2010, just 33 percent of black voters did. Although whites have almost always turned out at greater rates than blacks, the racial gap has never been nearly that large, and indeed was at its smallest-ever levels in 2008 with Barack Obama on the ballot.

The '08 gap: "64.8 percent of whites voted versus 60.8 percent of African-Americans. "

whoops, meant to post that in an open thread, n/t

[ Parent ]
IN-Sen: Hostettler To Challenge Bayh | 57 comments

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