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SSP Daily Digest: 11/9

by: Crisitunity

Mon Nov 09, 2009 at 3:06 PM EST


CA-Sen, CA-Gov: A new LA Times/USC poll (conducted by GQR and POS) finds a dead heat in the GOP Senate primary: conservative Assemblyman Chuck DeVore and vapid ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina are deadlocked at 27 each (despite the fact that DeVore is almost entirely unknown, with favorables of 6/4 -- the deal is that Fiorina is, other than Ahnold, the state's only political figure with negative favorables, at 9/12). They also looked at the GOP field in the governor's race and find ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman leading the field at 35, followed by ex-Rep. Tom Campbell at 27 and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner at 10. No general election matchups, but probably the most disspiriting number of all is that a whopping 80% of all Californians think the state's best days are behind it.

FL-Sen: This seemed already pretty well established when they ran an anti-Crist ad last week, but it was made official today: the Club for Growth endorsed Marco Rubio in his primary challenge to Charlie Crist. Mmmmmm... cat fud.

IL-Sen: State treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, whose easy path to the nomination seems to have gotten at least something of an obstacle in its way with the candidacy of former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman, got a key endorsement: Rep. Luis Gutierrez. Giannoulias now has the endorsement of four of the state's House Dems.

KS-Sen: Also on the endorsement front, Rep. Jerry Moran got one today in the Kansas Senate GOP primary from Arizona's Rep. Jeff Flake. Kind of odd, as Flake is one of the most conservative House members and Moran is the 'moderate' option in the race, but Flake is more on the libertarian side of things rather than a theocon.

MA-Sen: Finally, something is happening in the sleepy Massachusetts Senate special election Democratic primary. Rep. Michael Capuano hit AG Martha Coakley from the left, attacking her for support for the death penalty, and the PATRIOT Act (Capuano was one of the few to vote against it). And now Coakley is saying she would have voted against the entire health care bill because of the Stupak poison pill, for which Capuano is now attacking her from the right (or at least the pragmatic).

MT-Sen: Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg pushed back a bit against rumors last week that he was gearing up to run for Senate against Jon Tester in 2012, saying he had no "immediate" plans to run. Rehberg didn't categorically rule it out, though.

NH-Sen: He's been acting like a candidate all year, but Ovide Lamontagne made it official: he's running for the GOP Senate nomination in New Hampshire. Lamontagne, a lawyer who defeated the establishment candidate in the GOP gubernatorial primary in 1996 (and went onto get demolished in the general), is probably the highest-profile primary challenger to establishment choice ex-AG Kelly Ayotte.

NY-Sen-B: In case it wasn't clear that ex-Gov. George Pataki is interesting in running for President, not Senator, he's making another appearance in Iowa tomorrow, addressing the Scott County GOP Ronald Reagan Dinner in Davenport.

PA-Sen: Here's a blast from the past, as one Arlen Specter opponent passed the torch to another. Lynn Yeakel, who lost the 1992 Senate race to Specter by only 3% amidst the media-designated "Year of the Woman," threw her support to Rep. Joe Sestak in the Democratic Senate primary on Friday.

NV-Gov: Las Vegas's colorful Democratic mayor Oscar Goodman is still mulling over whether to get involved in the gubernatorial race (and sounding pretty lukewarm about it), but he says if he does it, it'll be as an independent and not as a Democrat, setting up a confusing anything-can-happen three-way in yet another state.

VA-Gov: Here's a guy to add to the top of the "Do Not Hire" list right next to Bob Shrum: pollster David Petts, who it turns out is largely responsible for the Creigh Deeds strategy of going nonstop negative against Bob McDonnell, focusing on independents, and distancing himself from Barack Obama.

IL-07: It was decisionmaking day for Rep. Danny Davis (who had previously signed up for both his House seat and Cook Co. Board President, but had to withdraw one filing today), and it's a bit of a surprise: he's running for re-election to the House. He had apparently become worried about the possibility of splitting votes with multiple other African-Americans in the race, so he heads back to his nice safe seat in the House. (The question will now be how many of the prominent local politicos who filed to run for the open seat primary now drop out.)

IL-10: Democratic State Rep. Julie Hamos, who netted a big cash haul last quarter, is the first to hit the airwaves for the fast-approaching House primary against Dan Seals. She's running a TV spot touting her stand on health care.

LA-02: So I guess the future isn't Cao, anymore? Rep. Joe Cao has drawn a lot of heat for his aisle-crossing on health care, but it doesn't look like he'll suffer any meaningful consequences from leadership, and he's even pushing back against Michael Steele's comments about "coming after" moderate rank-breakers, in understated fashion, saying "He has the right to come after those members who do not conform to party lines, but I would hope that he would work with us in order to adjust to the needs of the district and to hold a seat that the Republican party would need." Also, Cao has picked up an unusual ally: Alaska's Rep. Don Young is defending Cao's vote and even stood watch over Cao as he cast his vote, fending off the horde of GOP arm-twisters.

NY-23: One of the lingering questions from last week: what the heck happened to all those Doug Hoffman voters that the polls showed? Mark Blumenthal assesses that most voters simply were in flux over that last weekend of polling as two separate events scrambled the status quo, and only made up their mind shortly before voting -- and that, in the end, Scozzafava voters disliked Hoffman more than they disliked Owens.

PA-11: Hazleton mayor and narrow 2008 loser Lou Barletta is still trying to decide on a rematch with Rep. Paul Kanjorski. He's set a timeline for a late November decision.

CA-LG: Moderate Republican state Senator Abel Maldonado seems to have the inside track on getting appointed as California's new Lt. Governor (left vacant by John Garamendi's election to the House), according to rumormongers. Maldonado seems the likeliest because he's about the only Republican who can clear the Democratic-controlled legislature, and Dems like the idea because he'd leave behind a Dem-leaning Senate district on the central coast that would be a good pickup target in a special election. There's also one other GOP-held vacancy coming up in the state Senate (SD-37, a traditionally Republican area in the Inland Empire but one where Obama won), vacated by John Benoit (who became a Riverside Co. Commissioner). Democratic Palm Springs school board member Justin Blake is already running there (along with possibly three different Republican Assemblymen), so there may be two good opportunities for Dems to get closer to the magic 2/3s mark in the Senate.

NY-St. Ass.: As the orgy of own-eating continues, the rest of the Assembly's GOP leadership is considering stripping Dede Scozzafava of her status as minority leader pro tem (in retribution for her Bill Owens endorsement). If they do, start counting down the days until she switches parties.

TX-St. House: Hopes still persist that the Dems can flip the Texas state House in 2010, where they were down only 76-74, but that got pushed back to 77-73 last week when long-time Democrat Chuck Hopson, representing a very conservative rural area in NE Texas, switched to the Republicans. Hopson still might not be able to save his butt; a GOP primary challenger, Michael Banks, already jumped in for 2010.

HCR Vote: The AFSCME and HCAN are running "thank you" ads in 20 different districts for vulnerable Dems who voted for health care reform.

Parties: I suppose it was only a matter of time before some clever wingnut figured this out. A conservative Orlando lawyer registered an official "Tea Party" with the secretary of state, making it one of 32 minor parties recognized in Florida.

Polling: PPP wants your help! They're asking for polling suggestions in their blog comments, and also have a poll up on where to go next (Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, or Ohio?).

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 11/9
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NY-Sen: Gillibrand vs. Bill Thompson?
Some illustrative quotes
After his closer-than-expected loss to Mayor Bloomberg, Thompson's name is being floated as a potential candidate for all sorts of offices: Congress, state controller, even the U.S. Senate.

Bronx Rep. Jose Serrano confirmed he's mentioned Thompson to House colleagues as a primary challenger to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who landed the open Senate seat Serrano was denied.



There's one political career option that's low on Thompson's list, a source said. Running in a primary against state Controller Thomas DiNapoli isn't his preference

My first reaction was to be surprised by the idea of Thompson running for the Senate now. But I do see the angle. It would be racial and regional - New York City black man vs. Upstate white woman.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
I've said before
that the only real threat to Gillibrand is in the Democratic primary. There is a reason why she publicly endorsed Thompson for mayor.  

[ Parent ]
I voted for Ohio
Missouri was my second choice, but in Ohio I'd like to see primary and general info for the Senate race. Delaware, I'm not interested in the polling info until Biden officially jumps in the race.

It sure took the CfG a long time to endorse Rubio. I still think Meek will lose in a general election if the Republicans nominate anyone even slightly more likable than Kitty Harris.


Agreed
It's hard for me to picture Meek garnering more than 50% against Crist or Meek. Not that it'll be a blow-out either way either.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I really want to see some Georgia numbers
If it shows dems even competitive in such a red state, it will put a dent in the "Republican Comeback" all the righties at Red state are yelling about.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

GA
I think that we have a pretty good idea about DE MO and OH.  We know it is going to be close and we know that the races wont change until the campaigning actually begins.  That's why i was the first  one to vote for Georgia.  We have not seen a general election matchup between Barnes and Oxedine.

[ Parent ]
Im not even interested in GA-Gov as much as GA-Sen
Iskason is way more vulnerable for some reason than he should be.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
I'd have to say I care more about GA-Gov
Although I'm perfectly willing to give up Jim Marshall, I'd like to see Barrow's district maintained and strengthed.  And I think we'd have a good chace at the new district in a fair fight.  We won't get either without a Democratic governor.  And the Governor's party gets first ballot position, something that would give us some more seats in the state house.  

By the way, are you from Georgia or just interested?

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


[ Parent ]
haha,
No, Im from Orange County, CA, but Im just interested because it seems to me that the GA-Sen race for the Dem on Intrade is way undervalued at only 15% chance of winning, even if the dem doesnt look like he is going to win on election day, it could be fairly competitive, and could be a good venture.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
RJ Hadley for GA-Sen
While we certainly need to replace Gov. Perdue (who's term limited out anyway), we also have a good chance to replace Isakson.  There's a real progressive running, RJ Hadley:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

RJ is serious about this, constantly travelling the state campaigning, and saying stuff because he means it.


[ Parent ]
I'm surprised by this talk about unseating Isakson
We saw how well the campaign to unseat Chambliss did; Isakson is usually considered the saner, more popular one. So what's the story?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
The story is
that Isakson can't break 50% when polled against token opposition.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U...

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


[ Parent ]
CT, CO-Gov, Rell, Penry not running
Jodi Rell announced her retirement: http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/st...
Josh Penry is dropping out of CO-Gov race, maybe to challenge Salazar? http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com...
Well, that article says no to a Slazar challenge

CA-Sen, CA-Gov
I can imagine Poizner jumping up and down wondering why no one likes him.  His little move the the right last week may have gooten him a couple more points though.  If Campbell had even a few bucks he could beat Whitman unless she hurls herself to the right.

The Devore news must make redstate happy.  It may actually be good for Team Red too as Fiorina is such a flawed candidate she could lose even worse than DeVore.

"Brown's favorability margin was the best in the poll aside from Obama -- the percentage of voters who liked him was 17 points higher than those who did not."


IA-Sen: Conlin announced today
We're discussing her announcement video and the campaign against Grassley in this thread on the recent diary list.

That video gets me pumped
I think Grassley will have the race of his life now.

It would just be that much better if Conlin actually won.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


[ Parent ]
Goodman
Why in the world is Goodman so willing to run as a Democrat for mayor but not for Governor?  He has to know he would most likely crush Cory Reid and then win the Governorship as a Democrat while having a smaller shot as an Indie no?

29/D/Male/NY-01

Shorter Petts: You don't need this President...
...to turn out of your African-American base vote.

Petts and his ilk always think independent voters can trump the base, and that they can stiff-arm the base. There has been only one Governor's race in the post Byrd Machine era that has not been a relatively low turnout, base vote-driven affair, and that was Wilder-Coleman '89. And even then, Wilder's base vote was critical to his narrow win.


lol perhaps we need a better abbreviation for Assembly
NY St-Ass lol

California St-Ass LOLOL!!!
And New Jersey St-Ass, Nevada St-Ass, Wisconsin St-Ass...

ROFLMAO!!!

My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
I think sometimes
you see it as "Asm" out in polite society. But this isn't polite society, this is the blogosphere.

[ Parent ]

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