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IA-Sen: Conlin To Run

by: Crisitunity

Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 11:52 AM EST

Democrats got their woman in Iowa, expanding the Senate playing field a bit:

Des Moines lawyer Roxanne Conlin plans to file paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission next week to run for U.S. Senate next year, adviser Mark Daley said today.
Conlin, a Democrat, has said last month she is more likely than not to seek the seat held by five-term Republican Chuck Grassley, but had to work out how she was going to handle her law practice and staff a campaign first.

Conlin is best known for running for Governor in 1982 (ironically against Terry Branstad, who's back for another gubernatorial run). She was only 38 then, meaning she's a spry 65 now. While she might not have that much residual name rec leftover from 27 years ago, her main asset is money. She's gotten wealthy from her involvement in some class action suits, and she plans to spend up to $10 million on her bid.

She'll be helped along by the precipitous decline in Grassley's approval numbers, which just happen to coincide with his transparently bad-faith negotiating on health care reform. The one poll of this matchup, an R2K poll from last month, shows Grassley leading Conlin 51-39.

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IA-Sen: Conlin To Run | 25 comments

What does this mean about Vilsack then?

The wife said no, the husband has been rumored.

by: Andrew @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 11:14:53 AM CST

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Tom Vilsack running for senate would be one of bests news for me

I glad see Roxanne Conlin in because she have so good numbers in last poll.

by: abgin @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 11:26:08 AM CST

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It means no Vilsack

He and Roxanne are good friends and allies. Tom Vilsack agreed to be Secretary of Agriculture I don't want him bailing on people before the end of Obama's first term or otherwise I would do everything I could to personally torpedo any future political plans of his from within the Iowa Democratic Party. I say this as someone who agrees with Vilsack 9 tomes out of ten and despises so called "progressives" like Ed Fallon.

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.

by: ModerateIADem @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 11:47:10 AM CST

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Not credibly rumored

That right-wing blog post that everyone got worked up about was pretty thin material, IMO.

by: James L. @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 12:40:38 PM CST

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No Chance

Grassley is safe no matter who he runs against.

by: NJBrandon @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 11:40:18 AM CST

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I think Tom Vilsack would have had a shot,

but he probably wasn't inclined to run.

As it is, I agree that it's unlikely she'll win, but a rigorous challenge to Grassley will be a great thing nonetheless. Keeping in the low-to-mid 50s when his previous four elections have all scored around 70% would be something.

by: SC @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 12:12:53 PM CST

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Yep.

Just like George Allen in 2006, and Hilliary Clinton in 2008.
Oh wait...

by: Hamtree @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 12:21:56 PM CST

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Do you mean Elizabeth Dole? lol

by: DTOzone @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 13:11:15 PM CST

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I think

he means Clinton's Presidential campaign.

by: Sean Fitzpatrick @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 13:39:40 PM CST

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ooooooh ok

I didn't expand my assumption outside the Senate realm

by: DTOzone @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 14:06:46 PM CST

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Allen is particularly apt...

...as Grassley is as likely as anyone in the Senate to have a Macacca moement.

by: colbycakes @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 14:50:27 PM CST

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Coburn

If Tom Coburn had a maccaca moment who'd know the difference?

by: David Kowalski @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 15:15:43 PM CST

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Coburn makes news only when he...

...says something reasonable and rationale.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

by: DCCyclone @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 15:20:34 PM CST

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What do you mean "IF"?

n/t.

by: Hamtree @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 15:43:32 PM CST

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Good.

I wonder if Grassley's approvals will keep going down due to health care once health care reform is passed and people notice that it passing didn't result in Armageddon.
I also wonder if Conlin really does plan to spend 10 million of her own money, isn't 10 million about the same amount most challengers raise total?

by: Hamtree @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 11:45:32 AM CST

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In all seriousness

If Conlin ran the best campaign she could, and if Grassley has the same favorables come this time next year, what are the odds Conlin could win?

And is this who the Iowa Democratic party chair meant when he said he'd give grassley the race of his life?

Bill Hedrick for Congress

by: daman09 @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 13:12:33 PM CST

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Grassley hasn't had a serious challenger since 1980

when he defeated John Culver, who was an incumbent. Conlin may not be well known, but she is indeed his most formindable opponent in his Senate history as an incumbent.

Can she win? I don't know, but I didn't expect Kay Hagan, Sheldon Whitehouse, Jim Webb, or even Al Franken to win a year out.

by: DTOzone @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 13:26:40 PM CST

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Grassley needs a new big problem for Conlin to win......

Grassley's bad faith on health care has brought down his job approval numbers to the low/mid-50s, but he can't be beaten unless they come down another 10 points. And the damage is done on health care, he's not going to suffer any more on that one.

There has to be something new come up for him to actually lose. He's a smart political animal, and his bad behavior on health care is the first time in his nearly 30 years in the Senate that I can remember him getting himself in trouble. So I'm not holding out hope for more mistakes.

Plus he's not going to be caught sleeping. He knows Conlin has money and has statewide campaign experience, even if it was long ago. I can't imagine Grassley failing to run a serious campaign this time.

That said, you never know what might happen, and that's why you need to recruit good candidates who are prepared to take advantage of opportunities that arise unexpectedly. So I am very happy with Conlin.

And as desmoinesdem has pointed out before, Conlin's entry might help gin up volunteering and turnout among some key Democratic constituencies when Culver, too, needs the help.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

by: DCCyclone @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 15:27:40 PM CST

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People who think Grassley is unbeatable need to smell the coffee

All incumbents are less popular now than perhaps anytime since Korea.

All polls show Grassley as vulnerable. Vilsack was five points behind him before Grassley's approvals tanked; Vilsack would likely be ahead now, but he doesn't want the job.

Conlin is an underdog, but except for being a little older, she is the type of candidate that should give an incumbent fits this cycle... non-politician who can take shots at everything screwed up and blame them on Grassley/Bush.

Even if she loses, she'll make him run hard, maybe move him to the left a bit, and help improve the chances of Culver.

This could be the marquee health care race in the country.

by: tommypaine @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 16:24:07 PM CST

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At the very least

he will be forced to defend his record and spend the money in his bank.

Best case we kick him out of Congress.

Very glad we've got a serious candidate.

by: Populista @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 21:17:02 PM CST

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This has a real potential to be an upset

by: JSmith @ Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 10:54:22 AM CST

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Let's hope that this isn't another Slattery or Rice

I always thought Slattery's background made him a rather lackluster candidate, but I didn't think so about Rice, and they both got clobbered. Granted, Inhofe is an asshole.

Also, granted, the polling here is more hopeful.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 16:00:18 PM CST

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Clarification

I mentioned Slattery and Rice since both of them were talked up to be potentially impressive candidates.

I agreed with this talking up for Rice, but not for Slattery.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 16:00:52 PM CST

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Rice

Also ran in the only state that went for McCain more so than it did for Bush. He was fighting an uphill battle, but I hope that this sets him up for a future statewide run.

by: TheGame08 @ Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 17:19:41 PM CST

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Is there any word on whether

he is running for Fallin's seat?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sun Nov 08, 2009 at 14:56:23 PM CST

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